Canon at PMA 2009 [CR3]

What could be coming?
There is a lot going on in Canon’s war room about what to do with PMA 2009. As we all know, the DSLR market in 2009 is expected to fall off a fair bit. The predicted rebound will be coming in 2010.

On a scale of 1-5, which cameras are likely to get a replacement at PMA.

Rebel XSi (Released Jan. 2008)
Canon had committed to a 1 year product cycle. However, that could be held off until the fall of 2009.
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Likelihood of a replacement at PMA: 3.5

Rebel XS (Released Jun. 2008)
There was a possibility of this being reduxed earlier than one year, consider that a dead rumour now. The XS will be replaced in the fall.
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Likelihood of replacement at PMA: 1

A New Rebel
There is a chance Canon could add a third Rebel to their lineup. This Rebel would add HD video, VGA LCD, 15.1mp, DIGIC IV. Sony has done well with their strategy.
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Likelihood of a new Rebel at PMA: 3

40D (Released August, 2007)
Canon had committed to this lineup being on a 1 year product cycle. The 50D proved that. Will Canon keep the 40D going beyond the new year? It’s unlikely. I will keep a close eye on 40D stocks. Could a 60D come at PMA to add HD Video to the class? No one I spoke to thinks so.
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Likelihood of a 60D at PMA: 1
Likelihood the 40D remains current beyond PMA: 2.5

A new Full Frame
The fabled EOS 3D. We talk about it every 6 months. Is it coming at PMA? Don’t bet on it. Let’s see if Canon has been able to meet the demands for the 5D Mark II.
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Likelihood of a 3D at PMA: 1.5

1D Mark IV (February, 2007)
Everyone wants a new one to showup ASAP. I’m receiving no information that Canon is about to launch a new 1D camera. I don’t think the worries of the economy would affect a model like this, anyone that can afford one will buy one. They will obviously be redoing the autofocus system and developing a new sensor. It’s tough to think that they could do that in 2 years, especially after the added development time to fix the 1D3.
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Likelihood of a 1D Mark III replacement at PMA: 3 (It’s a rating that doesn’t say much, but no one is saying much.)

Flagship P&S [CR2.5]
I am hearing rumors of a new CMOS based flagship P&S camera. Something that will be a departure from the G series. That’s really all the info I have at the moment. Think along the lines of the LX3, with industry leading noise & lens performance. It won’t be cheap.
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Likelihood of a flagship P&S at PMA: 3.5

Lenses:
There will be 2 launched at PMA [CR3]. That all but assures us a new camera body is coming.

1001 Noisy Cameras did their predictions a few days ago. Read them [here]

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