canon rumors FORUM

Gear Talk => EOS-M => Topic started by: Canon Rumors on April 14, 2014, 05:38:07 AM

Title: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Canon Rumors on April 14, 2014, 05:38:07 AM

Northlight has posted 2 EOS M cameras potentially coming in Q3 of 2014, which would make it a Photokina camera.


The 2 models will be split into entry level and prosumer. Canon has said they’re committed to the EOS M system and will continue to develop cameras and lenses. Perhaps this will once again be the “relaunch” we were told was going to happen with the EOS M2, which turned out not to be the case.


Source: [NL]


cr


Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 07:44:35 AM
The 2 models will be split into entry level and prosumer.

Who cares? Just give us ONE camera that is on par with the FUJIFILM X-E2, Olympus E-P5, Sony A6000 and Panasonic GX7 ... as a minimum. Then add weather-sealing as the Me_Me_Me card.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: TrabimanUK on April 14, 2014, 08:11:26 AM
The 2 models will be split into entry level and prosumer.

Who cares? Just give us ONE camera that is on par with the FUJIFILM X-E2, Olympus E-P5, Sony A6000 and Panasonic GX7 ... as a minimum. Then add weather-sealing as the Me_Me_Me card.

+1
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Don Haines on April 14, 2014, 08:21:41 AM
The 2 models will be split into entry level and prosumer.

and hopefully the prosumer model will NOT be the 7D2......
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 14, 2014, 08:30:16 AM
Who cares? Just give us ONE camera

You should care: mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.  Success of mirrorless mean more ¥¥, which means happy executives; and happy executives means (at least in Japan) more R&D ¥¥ for the full camera line.  Canon cannot succeed financially by producing just the camera equipment you want at a price you are willing to pay.  You should cheer every successful Rebel and PowerShot if you want more R&D for DSRL-type equipment.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 08:40:38 AM
...mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.

Is it?  Mirrorless meant the 'death of the dSLR in five years'.  That was seven years ago.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: ecka on April 14, 2014, 09:08:17 AM
I hope that one of them will be FF with dual pixel AF :).
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Dylan777 on April 14, 2014, 09:11:33 AM
The 2 models will be split into entry level and prosumer.

Who cares? Just give us ONE camera that is on par with the FUJIFILM X-E2, Olympus E-P5, Sony A6000 and Panasonic GX7 ... as a minimum. Then add weather-sealing as the Me_Me_Me card.

Still not enough, even Fuji going FF mirrorless. Sony has raised the bar in mirrorless world...others are playing catchup.

Edit: Sony out sold Canon in ONE country ;D
http://www.+++++++++++.com/korea-sony-sells-more-system-cameras-than-canon/ (http://www.+++++++++++.com/korea-sony-sells-more-system-cameras-than-canon/)

Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 14, 2014, 09:13:34 AM
...mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.

Is it?  Mirrorless meant the 'death of the dSLR in five years'.  That was seven years ago.

Depends on how you define "mirrorless."  I define it the simple way: no mirror.  The mirror will go away.  When?  I'm willing to speculate, but not predict, and it will be an evolution, not a sudden event.  We've seen some great AF advances lately, and the battery life issue is just a matter of continued incremental progress.

Are you willing to assert that there will still be a large market in reflex cameras in twenty years?

You may have been trying to suggest that, even if mirroless is the future, profit is based on nearish future, not far future, and Canon could afford to delay M- development until it's closer.  That would be a reasonable argument, but you didn't make it.  Instead you argued that "people were wrong before about mirrorless, therefore..."
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Dylan777 on April 14, 2014, 09:13:50 AM
I hope that one of them will be FF with dual pixel AF :).

Now, that sounds "promosing" for Canon in term of mirrorless. Many Canon shooters are way too deep into the EF L lenses. To attract current DSLR users, just add an EF adapter to it.
 
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Zv on April 14, 2014, 09:40:18 AM
After shooting with my EOS M for the past 9 months or so I'm starting to see the appeal of mirrorless and yeah I would like to see more M releases. I guess a FF M is too much to hope for!

My M comes with me almost everywhere, and due to that simple reason it gets more use than my 5D2 these days. But it doesn't replace the need for a DSLR completely - heck not even close. Something like an A7 / A7R might though and I would be very interested in a mirrorless EF mount camera from Canon. Even if it was APS-C but good APS-C, know what I mean? Would be just the ticket for traveling.

However, I can see Canon would want to keep the EOS M at a level below or close to the rebels. The direction they're aiming for is apparent in the M2 - even smaller and more compact but an incremental change. Hard to believe they'll release something groundbreaking, suddenly.

I so hope I'm wrong!
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 09:48:50 AM
...mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.

Is it?  Mirrorless meant the 'death of the dSLR in five years'.  That was seven years ago.

Depends on how you define "mirrorless."  I define it the simple way: no mirror.  The mirror will go away.  When?  I'm willing to speculate, but not predict, and it will be an evolution, not a sudden event.  We've seen some great AF advances lately, and the battery life issue is just a matter of continued incremental progress.

Are you willing to assert that there will still be a large market in reflex cameras in twenty years?

You may have been trying to suggest that, even if mirroless is the future, profit is based on nearish future, not far future, and Canon could afford to delay M- development until it's closer.  That would be a reasonable argument, but you didn't make it.  Instead you argued that "people were wrong before about mirrorless, therefore..."

Depends on how you define "future."   ;)   Canon has told us the future (http://www.engadget.com/2010/07/06/canon-wonder-camera-concept-promises-single-lens-perfection-vid/) is video camera with a small, ultrahigh resolution sensor, a big zoom lens, phenomenal image stabilization, and frame grabs for still images.  Of course, as a video camera it fits your definition of mirrorless…

Yes, the reflex mirror will go away at some point, some time after the point where performance of EVFs meets or exceeds that of OVFs (that's a ways off), and image sensor AF performance meets or exceeds that of a dedicated phase AF sensor for both static and moving subjects (we're getting closer to that).  But today's common use of term "mirrorless" does not match your definition as simply 'having no mirror'.  "Mirrorless" is generally taken as a shorthand descriptor for the class of cameras known as MILCs, compact system cameras, etc.  If you're going to use a term in a way that differs from convention, it's helpful to provide your definition at the outset. 

Sensor size will remain important, as will ergonomics.  If you want to have a lens with a large aperture to cover a full frame sensor's image circle, you're going to need a physically large lens.  Put a small camera behind that lens, the ergonomics are poor (ask anyone who's mounted an f/2.8 zoom on the EOS M).  Cameras that are similar in size to today's dSLRs, but don't have a reflex mirror, will come along eventually.  We won't be able to call them dSLRs (technically), but they won't fit today's definition of "mirrorless" either.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 09:50:30 AM
Who cares? Just give us ONE camera

You should care: mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.  Success of mirrorless mean more ¥¥, which means happy executives; and happy executives means (at least in Japan) more R&D ¥¥ for the full camera line.  Canon cannot succeed financially by producing just the camera equipment you want at a price you are willing to pay.  You should cheer every successful Rebel and PowerShot if you want more R&D for DSRL-type equipment.

The EOS-M was the best that Canon, with all its superior resources and technology, could come up with. So how the heck are they gonna handle TWO models, one if which is supposed to be "prosumer" (whatever that is) level. Plus, if Canon is not going to release L EF-M lenses, then how do they intend competing with FUJIFILM, Olympus and Panasonic for the "prosumer" market, huh?

As Dylan777 says:
... others are playing catchup.

This includes Canon. The mirrorless offerings from FUJIFILM, Olympus, Panasonic and Sony, which already surpass Canon's "Rebel" series of DSLR cameras, are available NOW. The EOS-M isn't. Yet Canon might possibly offer the same by Q3 in 2014. IMNSHO, it won't. It'll be another crippled fiasco ... without lenses.

Canon cannot succeed financially by producing just the camera equipment you want at a price you are willing to pay.

Correct, which is why I'm switching to FUJIFILM ... 'cause they produce just the camera equipment I want at a price I am willing to pay.

You should cheer every successful Rebel and PowerShot if you want more R&D for DSRL-type equipment.

Actually, I was cheering about every new camera from Olympus and FUJIFILM that sold like hotcakes covered with chocolate syrup ... 'cause those successes led to these respective companies finally making a camera (and companion lenses) as I want it. On the flipside, every successful "Rebel" made kept Canon in the past and it finally lost them (Canon) at least one big-mouthed, opinionated user/customer who no longer recommends their products to others.  :D
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 09:56:39 AM
The EOS-M was the best that Canon, with all its superior resources and technology, could come up with. So how the heck are they gonna handle TWO models, one if which is supposed to be "prosumer" (whatever that is) level. Plus, if Canon is not going to release L EF-M lenses, then how do they intend competing with FUJIFILM, Olympus and Panasonic for the "prosumer" market, huh?

Canon seems to have made a limited investment in mirrorless, to date.  Still, in Japan – one of the largest mirrorless markets – the EOS M outsold every MILC model from Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonic for 2013. 
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 09:58:21 AM
... even if mirroless is the future, profit is based on nearish future, not far future, and Canon could afford to delay M- development until it's closer.

Problem with that kind of corporate financial theoretical thinking is that it only works if you (i.e. Canon) are the only game in town. Canon isn't and everyone who wants decent mirrorless right now are switching systems to other manufacturers, i.e. Canon is losing customers.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 14, 2014, 09:59:53 AM
Depends on how you define "future."   ;)   Canon has told us the future (http://www.engadget.com/2010/07/06/canon-wonder-camera-concept-promises-single-lens-perfection-vid/) is video camera with a small, ultrahigh resolution sensor, a big zoom lens, phenomenal image stabilization, and frame grabs for still images.  Of course, as a video camera it fits your definition of mirrorless…

Quote
"Mirrorless" is generally taken as a shorthand descriptor for the class of cameras known as MILCs, compact system cameras, etc.  If you're going to use a term in a way that differs from convention, it's helpful to provide your definition at the outset.

Both reasonable points.  Not only does tech evolve, but markets evolve as well.  Yes, I was fuzzy with my definition, but that's because futurists have a habit of predicting a better version of what we have right now, rather than something we didn't know we would prefer.  Sure, MILC dominance may be a little further away, but there's a lot of variation and selection that will occur in the next few years, and we may find that the MILC we thought we wanted looks retro-futuristic compared to what becomes available, like a video camera with frame grab.  My general point stands: it's in Canon's interest to stay in the M-market, even at break-even or loss, to make sure they're ready for the evolution of both tech and market demands.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 14, 2014, 10:02:48 AM
The EOS-M was the best that Canon, with all its superior resources and technology, could come up with.

Nope, it was the best they chose to put on the market.  We have no idea what their technical limits are.  I'm at a loss to understand why people think that companies always put their best product on the market.   This is certainly not true, especially for a company in Canon's strong position.  No way, no how.


Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 10:05:19 AM
Canon seems to have made a limited investment in mirrorless, to date.  Still, in Japan – one of the largest mirrorless markets – the EOS M outsold every MILC model from Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonic for 2013.

So what's your point? Have you ever thought that Europeans/USA/Canadians might prefer the "SLR"-style of camera (with integrated OVF/EVF) over the GF, E-P and EOS-M type of cameras, which explains why these [latter] cameras have not sold well in Europe, the USA and Canada? That it might be cultural thing, huh?
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 10:13:28 AM
The EOS-M was the best that Canon, with all its superior resources and technology, could come up with.

Nope, it was the best they chose to put on the market.  We have no idea what their technical limits are.  I'm at a loss to understand why people think that companies always put their best product on the market.   This is certainly not true, especially for a company in Canon's strong position.  No way, no how.

Canon may be strong in certain markets, like DSLR's. But in the mirrorless market they are sorrily outclassed by "lesser" companies like Olympus, Panasonic and now FUJIFILM.

So, with mirrorless (in whichever form) being the future, and Canon being heavily behind in this segment, they have, IMO, just one more chance to equal the field and that is to make the upcoming EOS-M3 the best camera that they can possible make it. This is do or die time ... and damn the [..] Business School.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 14, 2014, 10:16:41 AM
Canon may be strong in certain markets, like DSLR's. But in the mirrorless market they are sorrily outclassed by "lesser" companies like Olympus, Panasonic and now FUJIFILM.

Outclassed in what sense: sales, or a product that you want to buy at a price you can afford?  As Neuro said above, they seem to be doing just fine in sales.  Canon is a for-profit company, not a patron of the arts.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 10:23:03 AM
Problem with that kind of corporate financial theoretical thinking is that it only works if you (i.e. Canon) are the only game in town. Canon isn't and everyone who wants decent mirrorless right now are switching systems to other manufacturers, i.e. Canon is losing customers.

Problem with that kind of individual consumer theoretical thinking is that it only works if you (i.e. the comsumer) are the only game in town.  You're not, and while Canon may be losing customers 'who want decent mirrorless right now', they're also gaining customers who are upgrading from a P&S and finding dSLRs to be more popular, customers who want better IQ than smaller-sensor mirrorless bodies can deliver, better performance on certain metrics, etc. 

For interchangeable lens cameras, those with reflex mirrors are outselling those without mirrors by over 4:1.  Considering all digital cameras (P&S, dSLR, and mirrorless), mirrorless cameras account for 10% of the 2013 revenue, dSLRs account for 48% of the 2013 revenue, with fixed lens cameras making up the balance of 42%  (CIPA stats (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2013_e.pdf)). 

So, the customers Canon is 'losing' come from a segment of the market that accounts for less than 10% of camera revenues.   


Canon seems to have made a limited investment in mirrorless, to date.  Still, in Japan – one of the largest mirrorless markets – the EOS M outsold every MILC model from Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonic for 2013.

So what's your point? Have you ever thought that Europeans/USA/Canadians might prefer the "SLR"-style of camera (with integrated OVF/EVF) over the GF, E-P and EOS-M type of cameras, which explains why these [latter] cameras have not sold well in Europe, the USA and Canada? That it might be cultural thing, huh?

You refer to the EOS M as, "...the best that Canon, with all its superior resources and technology, could come up with," and state that Canon is 'outclassed' by Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonic.  My point is that in a geography where mirrorless cameras are popular, Canon beat Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonic in sales, and did so with their very first entry into the mirrorless market. 
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 10:24:11 AM
Canon may be strong in certain markets, like DSLR's. But in the mirrorless market they are sorrily outclassed by "lesser" companies like Olympus, Panasonic and now FUJIFILM.

Outclassed in what sense: sales, or a product that you want to buy at a price you can afford?  As Neuro said above, they seem to be doing just fine in sales.  Canon is a for-profit company, not a patron of the arts.

Big in Japan, huh? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_in_Japan_%28phrase%29 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_in_Japan_%28phrase%29))
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: bseitz234 on April 14, 2014, 10:24:33 AM
Canon seems to have made a limited investment in mirrorless, to date.  Still, in Japan – one of the largest mirrorless markets – the EOS M outsold every MILC model from Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonic for 2013.

So what's your point? Have you ever thought that Europeans/USA/Canadians might prefer the "SLR"-style of camera (with integrated OVF/EVF) over the GF, E-P and EOS-M type of cameras, which explains why these [latter] cameras have not sold well in Europe, the USA and Canada? That it might be cultural thing, huh?

This is a serious question, I know it sounds snarky, but I can't figure out how to rephrase it, so here goes....

what is your point? Where's Canon's incentive to do better in the MILC markets in Europe/North America, if consumers are going to go to DSLRs for form factor anyway? If it's a tiny market, of course they're not going to spend a lot of money on it- there's not much to be gained. And where there is money to be made (Japan), apparently they're doing well already, so again, they have no incentive to release a better camera...

(I say apparently because my only source is what Neuro says, I haven't actually looked for sales figures, and Neuro could be making up numbers and I'd have no idea.  ::) ) Not saying he is, just that I'd be none the wiser if he did.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: ecka on April 14, 2014, 10:25:51 AM
Actually, I was cheering about every new camera from Olympus and FUJIFILM that sold like hotcakes covered with chocolate syrup ... 'cause those successes led to these respective companies finally making a camera (and companion lenses) as I want it. On the flipside, every successful "Rebel" made kept Canon in the past and it finally lost them (Canon) at least one big-mouthed, opinionated user/customer who no longer recommends their products to others.  :D

Oh, please. Fuji's new (X-T1) horrible non-bayer detail-smearing-sensor (even in RAW) is the least impressive cake of all.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 10:26:37 AM
My general point stands: it's in Canon's interest to stay in the M-market, even at break-even or loss, to make sure they're ready for the evolution of both tech and market demands.

I think the development of dual pixel AF technology, a technology with such obvious applications in the mirrorless camera space, is solid evidence that Canon is ready for the market to move in that direction.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 10:38:23 AM
Problem with that kind of individual consumer theoretical thinking is that it only works if you (i.e. the comsumer) are the only game in town.  You're not, and while Canon may be losing customers 'who want decent mirrorless right now', they're also gaining customers who are upgrading from a P&S and finding dSLRs to be more popular, customers who want better IQ than smaller-sensor mirrorless bodies can deliver, better performance on certain metrics, etc. 

"Full-frame" is everything, right? But what about the Sony A7/A7S then, huh?

What metrics?

For interchangeable lens cameras, those with reflex mirrors are outselling those without mirrors by over 4:1.  Considering all digital cameras (P&S, dSLR, and mirrorless), mirrorless cameras account for 10% of the 2013 revenue, dSLRs account for 48% of the 2013 revenue, with fixed lens cameras making up the balance of 42%  (CIPA stats (http://www.cipa.jp/stats/documents/e/d-2013_e.pdf)). 

Let's wait for the 2014 stats, shall we? Just so's the Olympus E-M1 and E-M10, the Sony A7 and A7S, and the FUJIFILM X-T1 can be factored in.

So, the customers Canon is 'losing' come from a segment of the market that accounts for less than 10% of camera revenues.   

Right. So Canon can just chuck mirrorless because the market is negligible. LEICA, you listening?
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Rienzphotoz on April 14, 2014, 10:39:42 AM
If the EOS-M 3 has similar capabilities like the 70D and an optional or built-in view finder, then I'm all in ... I'd probably pick up the 11-22 lens along with the camera.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: lensgrabber on April 14, 2014, 10:42:30 AM
If the EOS-M 3 has similar capabilities like the 70D and an optional or built-in view finder, then I'm all in ... I'd probably pick up the 11-22 lens along with the camera.

EOS-M prosumer version with fast focus with a 11-22 in kit brought to the US.  Yes please.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: unfocused on April 14, 2014, 10:42:58 AM
...Yes, the reflex mirror will go away at some point, some time after the point where performance of EVFs meets or exceeds that of OVFs (that's a ways off), and image sensor AF performance meets or exceeds that of a dedicated phase AF sensor for both static and moving subjects (we're getting closer to that)...
...Cameras that are similar in size to today's dSLRs, but don't have a reflex mirror, will come along eventually.  We won't be able to call them dSLRs (technically), but they won't fit today's definition of "mirrorless" either...

I don't disagree with the essence of what you are saying. Although I do think the jury is still out on whether or not EVFs will ever outperform and replace OVFs.

It seems to me the Optical View Finder is a pretty elegant solution that's been around for a long time (over 100 years in some form or another and well over 50 as the dominant format for 35mm). It relies on physics, not electronics, and has lots of advantages.

When people complain about Optical View Finders, they generally focus on the mirror movement and size. The slapping of the mirror is one of those things like dynamic range, shadow detail, etc. that a few people fixate on, but which has little practical effect for most users.

It's true that a camera without a mirror should be smaller than one with. But, it's also true that size is only a factor in modest focal lengths. Get beyond the edges of the normal range and lens size quickly trumps camera size. Interchangeable lens mirrorless cameras are the height of irony -- small form factor but then, let's carry around multiple lenses. What sense does that make?

Canon has demonstrated with the SL1 that DSLRs can be small too, and still retain all the advantages of an optical mirror.

Not taking issue with you, Neuro, because you get it. Rather just with the mindset that electronic viewfinders will inevitably replace optical simply because they are the latest thing.

Which may be why I'm skeptical about the future of interchangeable lens mirrorless cameras.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 10:46:35 AM
What is your point? Where's Canon's incentive to do better in the MILC markets in Europe/North America, if consumers are going to go to DSLRs for form factor anyway? If it's a tiny market, of course they're not going to spend a lot of money on it- there's not much to be gained. And where there is money to be made (Japan), apparently they're doing well already, so again, they have no incentive to release a better camera...

As others have stated, the objective for companies like Canon is to make money ... sacks of it. So, if something doesn't sell well in one market, but it sells pretty darn good in another, then you get those market research guys off their butts and put them to work. Obviously, looking at mirrorless, it seems obvious that Asians prefer the current models (like the EOS-M), whereas Europeans obviously prefer the "SLR"-style. The obvious solution? Redesign the EOS-M into an "SLR"-like package, like Olympus did with the E-M5. Obviously.

(If Canon actually does this, then they owe me a consultation fee of ZAR250 for this advice.  ;) )
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 10:55:44 AM
Oh, please. Fuji's new (X-T1) horrible non-bayer detail-smearing-sensor (even in RAW) is the least impressive cake of all.

To take a lead from neuroanatomist (i.e. argumentum ad populum): The way the X-T1 is selling not many people would agree with you, thus your opinion is negligible.  ;)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 11:00:02 AM
"Full-frame" is everything, right? But what about the Sony A7/A7S then, huh?

What metrics?

What about them?  The Sony A7 line is a small fraction of the mirrorless market.  Again, you are thinking from the perspective of an individual buying one camera, and Canon is considering the perspective of millions of people buying all sorts of cameras.

Many of the mirrorless offerings are m4/3, which is smaller than APS-C. 

Sensor size isn't all that matters.  AF performance, battery life, native lens selection, etc., are all factors that many people consider when choosing a camera.

Let's wait for the 2014 stats, shall we? Just so's the Olympus E-M1 and E-M10, the Sony A7 and A7S, and the FUJIFILM X-T1 can be factored in.

You can wait if you want.  For Jan/Feb 2014, MILCs are still hovering at around 10% of the total market.  I doubt the cameras you mention will have a significant impact on that, since only one of them is under $1K, and even that one (the E-M10) costs more than entry-level dSLRs.  It's really the lower end, entry-level systems that drive the bulk of the market. 
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 11:08:47 AM
I don't disagree with the essence of what you are saying. Although I do think the jury is still out on whether or not EVFs will ever outperform and replace OVFs.

It seems to me the Optical View Finder is a pretty elegant solution that's been around for a long time (over 100 years in some form or another and well over 50 as the dominant format for 35mm). It relies on physics, not electronics, and has lots of advantages.

I do think EVFs will improve to the point where they replace OVFs.  Not because they're the latest thing, but because the do offer significant advantages.  Those advantages are just not enough to outweight the disadvantages, yet (IMO).  An EVF doesn't need zero lag, it just needs a lag short enough to be imperceptible.  DR is an issue that can also be overcome.  Consider the 'intelligent VF' in the recent Canon bodies - the transmissive LCD overlay is there to provide additional information in the OVF, like a level, grid lines, etc. That's very useful, but an EVF can offer a lot more, such as live histogram (which can obviate the DR issue), focus peaking, instant focus check with a 10x zoom at half-press, etc. 
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: cellomaster27 on April 14, 2014, 11:26:33 AM
Ooh! Finally a canon related rumor!! Lol this is pretty exciting actually. Think canon won't make such a huge blunder like they did with the eos-m. I need this and adapter. Maybe canon will release the 11-22mm with the m3 to US?  Rumor G.A.S?  ;D

Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: lycan on April 14, 2014, 11:27:09 AM
As a hardcore Canon fan, I find it harder and harder to recomend Canon cameras these days unless they pretend to shoot sports and/or wildlife.

If I was going to buy my 1st camera today and all I wanted was landscape and portraits (most common things people shoot) I wouldn't by Canon. I'd buy Sony or Fuji


Sony and fuji are on the vanguard. They are innovating and releasing exciting things to the market. Canon and Nikon are starting to look like the old relative that doesn't keep up with the new market tendencies
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: cellomaster27 on April 14, 2014, 11:31:12 AM
As a hardcore Canon fan, I find it harder and harder to recomend Canon cameras these days unless they pretend to shoot sports and/or wildlife.

If I was going to buy my 1st camera today and all I wanted was landscape and portraits (most common things people shoot) I wouldn't by Canon. I'd buy Sony or Fuji


Sony and fuji are on the vanguard. They are innovating and releasing exciting things to the market. Canon and Nikon are starting to look like the old relative that doesn't keep up with the new market tendencies


Assuming that you're talking about mirror less, yes. Song a7r.. Well now a7s. Heck yeah! But dslrs are a different breed.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 11:31:42 AM
Canon and Nikon are starting to look like the old relative that doesn't keep up with the new market tendencies

Yep, the rich old relative that will be drinking fine wine and feasting on pâté and aged cheeses long after the young relatives have nearly starved to death on a diet of water, canned tuna and Velveeta (aka the 10% market share they're fighting over like dogs).   :P  ;)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 11:47:28 AM
Again, you are thinking from the perspective of an individual buying one camera, and Canon is considering the perspective of millions of people buying all sorts of cameras.

Individuals buy cameras. Individuals are influenced by other individuals ... as well as by corporate marketing, but individuals carry more weight. And so on. Oh, who cares anyway?
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 11:55:17 AM
Yep, the rich old relative that will be drinking fine wine and feasting on pâté and aged cheeses ...

I see Canon's marketing dept. really earned their salaries with you.  ;)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 11:57:08 AM
Individuals buy cameras. Individuals are influenced by other individuals ... as well as by corporate marketing, but individuals carry more weight. And so on. Oh, who cares anyway?

Individuals buy cameras.  For every individual that buys a MILC, there are 4 individuals that buy a dSLR and 17 individuals that buy a P&S.

Populations drive corporate bottom lines.  Canon cares…about the camera market.  But not about you and the people you influence, nor about me and the people I influence, the number of which doesn't even rise to the level of meaningless insignificance on the scale of the global camera market.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: surapon on April 14, 2014, 12:04:28 PM
Well, Yes, I will buy EOS-M MK III , Yes, I fell in love with EOS-M MK I about 2 months already, And Skip MK II, and will get MK III as soon as on the Market.
I do not care If canon change only Color-----Well,  If canon give us better AF speed, Less waiting time to shoot the second Photo  and Higher ISO , and that will be the Great Plus for all of us.
Have a great work week for all of my friends.
Surapon
PS, These 3 Photos below,  from EOS-M-MK I with EF-M 18-55 IS MACRO---Set Camera AV mode at F= 8.0 ISO= 100, ( Camera Auto set SS = 1/ 125 sec) ,Hand held shooting----You can see = Why ?---I love this camera and kit Lens.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 12:11:02 PM
Populations drive corporate bottom lines.  Canon cares…about the camera market.  But not about you and the people you influence, nor about me and the people I influence, the number of which doesn't even rise to the level of meaningless insignificance on the scale of the global camera market.

This viewpoint is exactly why all companies eventually fail, unless they diversify into new markets.

I take that, as a biologist, you understand exponential growth of populations. Well, in the social sciences we have the same concept, only relating to ideas, behaviour, beliefs, customs and such. So, the number of people I directly influence might on itself be irrelevant, but then they also influence people and so on ... thousands and millions.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: RGF on April 14, 2014, 12:14:21 PM
Who cares? Just give us ONE camera

You should care: mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.  Success of mirrorless mean more ¥¥, which means happy executives; and happy executives means (at least in Japan) more R&D ¥¥ for the full camera line.  Canon cannot succeed financially by producing just the camera equipment you want at a price you are willing to pay.  You should cheer every successful Rebel and PowerShot if you want more R&D for DSRL-type equipment.

marketing 101 - segment your market.  Extra maximum profit from each.

Would you be happy if there was only 1 car, a high priced car for the enthusiasts?
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 12:30:23 PM
Populations drive corporate bottom lines.  Canon cares…about the camera market.  But not about you and the people you influence, nor about me and the people I influence, the number of which doesn't even rise to the level of meaningless insignificance on the scale of the global camera market.

This viewpoint is exactly why all companies eventually fail, unless they diversify into new markets.

I take that, as a biologist, you understand exponential growth of populations. Well, in the social sciences we have the same concept, only relating to ideas, behaviour, beliefs, customs and such. So, the number of people I directly influence might on itself be irrelevant, but then they also influence people and so on ... thousands and millions.

First off, I think you may be overstating the impact of that influence on camera buying decisions.  Are you suggesting that every person to whom you recommend the Fuji XT-1 will buy one, or that no one else may be telling that same person to buy a Canon 650D?  That seems unliklely.  Influence works both ways.  Importantly, it works by observation - Canon's position as the market leader means if you go out and look, you're more likely to see a Canon camera in someone's hands than one made by Fuji, Olympus or Panasonic. 

Second, and more importantly, it's obvious that Canon is diversified into many markets, from imaging systems to industrial equipment.  Their imaging systems business encompasses P&S, ILCs, camcorders, cinema and broadcast, printers, etc.  As I stated above, Canon's EOS M was bought by more people in Japan last year than any MILC made by Fuji, Olympus or Panasonic.  So not only does Canon have a presence in that market segment, it's actually a rather successful presence. 

You just happen to like a Fuji camera better, and somehow that's led you to the conclusion that Canon is doomed?   ::)  (Well, maybe I extrapolated from your statements just a bit for dramatic effect…)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: LookingThroughMyLens81 on April 14, 2014, 01:19:40 PM
Make the SL1 design mirrorless with a more solid body and your problems are solved. EF/EF-S lens compatibility and a form-factor that people are familiar with and like.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 01:28:24 PM
marketing 101 - segment your market.  Extra maximum profit from each.

Complete the course first. Pay special attention to the module about developing and selling a new type of product in an already competitive market.

Would you be happy if there was only 1 car, a high priced car for the enthusiasts?

Not the same situation, but to continue the analogy ... Olympus, Panasonic, Sony and FUJIFILM are selling 2014-model SUV's; Canon is selling 1960's Land Rovers.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 01:29:32 PM
Make the SL1 design mirrorless with a more solid body and your problems are solved. EF/EF-S lens compatibility and a form-factor that people are familiar with and like.

Glad to see someone listens to my mad ravings.  ;D
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 01:39:21 PM
marketing 101 - segment your market.  Extra maximum profit from each.
Complete the course first. Pay special attention to the module about developing and selling a new type of product in an already competitive market.

Which, as stated, Canon already did…and the EOS M was the second best-selling MILC in Japan last year, outselling Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic, and most models of Sony MILCs.

You can ignore that fact all day long, but that doesn't make it untrue or irrelevant.

Would you be happy if there was only 1 car, a high priced car for the enthusiasts?
Not the same situation, but to continue the analogy ... Olympus, Panasonic, Sony and FUJIFILM are selling 2014-model SUV's; Canon is selling 1960's Land Rovers.

No, Olympus, Panasonic, Sony and FUJIFILM are selling 2014-model mopeds.  Ok, Sony has a car in its lineup, but it's a niche product, sort of like a muscle car - a big, powerful engine in a plain, rather boring chassis.  :P

In this analogy, Canon is Toyota, selling all sorts of models at many price levels, including the Corolla which is the best-selling car in the world.

Toyota looks like they're venturing into the scooter market, too, just like Canon is venturing into the MILC market.

(http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02705/Toyota-iRoad-1_2705584k.jpg)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 01:43:46 PM
First off, I think you may be overstating the impact of that influence on camera buying decisions.  Are you suggesting that every person to whom you recommend the Fuji XT-1 will buy one, or that no one else may be telling that same person to buy a Canon 650D?  That seems unliklely.  Influence works both ways.  Importantly, it works by observation - Canon's position as the market leader means if you go out and look, you're more likely to see a Canon camera in someone's hands than one made by Fuji, Olympus or Panasonic. 

I have an over-inflated ego ... it is a requirement for my occupation. Nonetheless, I'm right. (History tells me so.)

Second, and more importantly, it's obvious that Canon is diversified into many markets, from imaging systems to industrial equipment.  Their imaging systems business encompasses P&S, ILCs, camcorders, cinema and broadcast, printers, etc.

That is not diversifying. Sony selling insurance in addition to their electronic stuff is diversifying. Strangely enough, the most excellent example for this diversify or die theory is a South African company called Naspers. They actually diversified INTO the market segment that posed the greatest threat to their "original" business.

(Well, maybe I extrapolated from your statements just a bit for dramatic effect…)

Isn't that what Internet forums are for?  ;D
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 01:50:05 PM
Second, and more importantly, it's obvious that Canon is diversified into many markets, from imaging systems to industrial equipment.  Their imaging systems business encompasses P&S, ILCs, camcorders, cinema and broadcast, printers, etc.

That is not diversifying. Sony selling insurance in addition to their electronic stuff is diversifying.

So Canon will fail because they're not diversified…but Fujifilm and Olympus are diversified?   ::)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 01:56:43 PM
Which, as stated, Canon already did…and the EOS M was the second best-selling MILC in Japan last year, outselling Fuji, Olympus, Panasonic, and most models of Sony MILCs.

You can ignore that fact all day long, but that doesn't make it untrue or irrelevant.

Just for you ...

http://youtu.be/tl6u2NASUzU (http://youtu.be/tl6u2NASUzU)

No, Olympus, Panasonic, Sony and FUJIFILM are selling 2014-model mopeds.  Ok, Sony has a car in its lineup, but it's a niche product, sort of like a muscle car - a big, powerful engine in a plain, rather boring chassis.  :P

In this analogy, Canon is Toyota, selling all sorts of models at many price levels, including the Corolla which is the best-selling car in the world.

Mopeds, huh. More like Vespa scooters, if ask me (which you didn't)!

If the Toyota is the best-selling car in the world, then on sheer numbers it must also be involved in the most accidents ...  ???

Toyota looks like they're venturing into the scooter market, too, just like Canon is venturing into the MILC market.

Toyota also makes forklifts and my personal favourite, the Sesfikile (http://www.toyota.co.za/ranges/sesfikile).  :P
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 02:03:35 PM
So Canon will fail because they're not diversified…

Eventually.

... but Fujifilm and Olympus are diversified?   ::)

No. FUJIFILM is doing well enough because they are focusing on a few quality products (a la LEICA); but Olympus is making too many mistakes.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: ecka on April 14, 2014, 02:23:37 PM
Oh, please. Fuji's new (X-T1) horrible non-bayer detail-smearing-sensor (even in RAW) is the least impressive cake of all.

To take a lead from neuroanatomist (i.e. argumentum ad populum): The way the X-T1 is selling not many people would agree with you, thus your opinion is negligible.  ;)

Sure it is :). However, the image is what matters the most for enthusiasts, who are in the minority of the whole digital photography business, so the most important opinions from those who care are negligible. The average consumer doesn't participate (or rarely does) in forum discussions like this one. We only know that most EVIL users prefer cheaper toys (like EOS M). Many X-T1 owners would agree that there is a big problem (weird patterns appearing on distant trees or hair, overall image softness). X-T1 with 56/1.2 would cost you more than 6D with 85/1.8, which (in my negligible opinion :)) ) is a much better tool.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: 9VIII on April 14, 2014, 02:31:26 PM
Make the SL1 design mirrorless with a more solid body and your problems are solved. EF/EF-S lens compatibility and a form-factor that people are familiar with and like.

One up that, since it's mirrorless use the extra space to put a full frame sensor in the SL1 body.

The primary benefit of mirrorless for me is not size, it's being able to accurately manual focus at f1.4 with the viewfinder.

The reduced size is nice though.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 02:38:15 PM
So Canon will fail because they're not diversified…
Eventually.

Fair enough.  The sun will explode, and sometime after that the universe will end.  Eventually.  You've been warned.   :P


... but Fujifilm and Olympus are diversified?   ::)
No. FUJIFILM is doing well enough because they are focusing on a few quality products (a la LEICA); but Olympus is making too many mistakes.

Your view of the situation is rather incomplete.  In fact, only ~13% of Fuji's revenue comes from their Imaging Solutions division (which includes their consumer camera products), and income from their Imaging division has dropped steadily over the last 5 years.  Imaging Solutions also includes photo paper and instant cameras, both of which have increased revenues recently, but the drop in digital camera sales has dragged the division down overall. 

So, Fujifilm is doing well because they they sell a lot of office products and medical imaging devices, not becuase they sell 'a few quality products (a la LEICA)'. 

Speaking of Leica, Leica Camera is a niche company that exists primarily becuase the conglomerate that bought the rest of Leica (Danaher purchased the Microsystems and Geosystems divisions a few years back) didn't want the camera division, because it doesn't fit with their B2B business model.  Leica Camera had to license their own name back from Danaher. 
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 14, 2014, 03:02:56 PM
Your view of the situation is rather incomplete.

It usually is ... ignorance is bliss and all that rot.  ;)

In fact, only ~13% of Fuji's revenue comes from their Imaging Solutions division (which includes their consumer camera products), and income from their Imaging division has dropped steadily over the last 5 years.

A drop is OK, unless it goes negative and you start losing money ... then it's time to fire the execs.

Imaging Solutions also includes photo paper and instant cameras, both of which have increased revenues recently, but the drop in digital camera sales has dragged the division down overall. 

I wonder why? (Well, actually not ... I know the reason, but it's so revolutionary that the sun will probably explode or something before anyone will comprehend the theory ... or because of it.)

So, Fujifilm is doing well because they they sell a lot of office products and medical imaging devices, not becuase they sell 'a few quality products (a la LEICA)'. 

Apart from their Inferia Superia films, I've never seen anything other than photographic stuff labeled FUJIFILM here in South Africa ... just don't tell me they also make bio-potties like Panasonic!

Speaking of Leica, Leica Camera is a niche company that exists primarily becuase the conglomerate that bought the rest of Leica (Danaher purchased the Microsystems and Geosystems divisions a few years back) didn't want the camera division, because it doesn't fit with their B2B business model.  Leica Camera had to license their own name back from Danaher.

LEICA is always the ol' rusty nail that deflates the whole argument against the profitability of niche markets, aren't they? Ooooh, how I love 'em. ;D
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 03:48:05 PM
LEICA is always the ol' rusty nail that deflates the whole argument against the profitability of niche markets, aren't they?

Who's arguing that niche markets are unprofitable?  They can be quite profitable, if managed (aka exploited) properly.  The 1-series bodies are a niche market, the 1D C even more so – and they're priced for Canon to profit from them. Ferrari has been in business for a long time. 

The thing that needs to be deflated is some people's idea that niche market high-end gear should be sold to them as mass-market prices.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: dtaylor on April 14, 2014, 03:50:24 PM
You should care: mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.

It's amazing how people keep saying things like this even though the mirrorless market has failed to materialize in the U.S. and Europe, and is still a side market in Japan.

And this is coming from someone who loves his EOS M, wants to see more EOS M bodies and lenses, and thinks mirrorless in general is underrated by the public.

The DSLR isn't going any where, and Canon's profits will continue to come from brisk Rebel sales.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: l_d_allan on April 14, 2014, 04:19:54 PM
I don't know the tradeoffs involved, or even whether it's possible, but IMO it's too bad Canon didn't design the M series so it could use EF-S lenses without adapter.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: unfocused on April 14, 2014, 04:23:27 PM
LEICA is always the ol' rusty nail that deflates the whole argument against the profitability of niche markets, aren't they?

Who's arguing that niche markets are unprofitable?  They can be quite profitable, if managed (aka exploited) properly.  The 1-series bodies are a niche market, the 1D C even more so – and they're priced for Canon to profit from them.

I was about to respond to this, but you said it better and more succinctly than I could.

One additional thought though: people shouldn't confuse niche market profitability with large company sustainability. The 1-series bodies may be very profitable for Canon (I really don't know if they are or if they are a marketing loss-leader), but they couldn't possibly sustain the entire company because there just aren't enough buyers.

The Rebels, on the other hand, may be a small profit item, but I suspect the t3i contributes more to the overall bottom line than all the 1-series put together.

Point being -- large companies must pick and choose which niche markets to enter and sustain. Canon and Nikon remain in the flagship DSLR market in part because it aligns well with their prosumer, enthusiast, consumer and entry-level marketing.

Neither Canon nor Nikon have ever shown much interest in medium format cameras. I suspect it is because the small dollars available won't allow sufficient return to justify the investment and they can put those dollars to better use in other niche markets that align better with their overall mission – cinema DSLRs for example.

You should care: mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.

It's amazing how people keep saying things like this even though the mirrorless market has failed to materialize in the U.S. and Europe, and is still a side market in Japan.

Additionally, the jury is still out on whether the Japanese and other Asian markets are the leading edge or the trailing edge. Just because mirrorless currently seems to be doing well in Asia, too many people assume that's the future.

But, the evidence can be read in just the opposite way – mirrorless might be just a temporary infatuation for a market that could ultimately end up following Europe and the Americas into the DSLR love affair.

Okay, I know it's very risky to combine the Japanese market with the rest of Asia. Japan is a mature market and mirrorless seems primarily focused on generational and gender-based preferences in Japan.

But, China is an emerging market and ultimately may be a much more important one at that. As the middle- and upper-classes expand in China, they may find DSLRs just as appealing as their European and American counterparts.

So my point remains -- we really don't know if mirrorless is the wave of the future or not, even in Asia.

Side Note: Looks like the HTML might be screwed up on this post. Can't find a way to get in to it to see what the problem might be. My apologies.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: mkabi on April 14, 2014, 05:39:11 PM

The primary benefit of mirrorless for me is not size, it's being able to accurately manual focus at f1.4 with the viewfinder.


You don't need mirrorless for that... you need focus peaking...
Install ML or grab yourself  one of these:  http://www.amazon.com/Swivi-SV-50H-II-External-Monitor/dp/B00E3VSA7W/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1397511395&sr=8-1&keywords=Swivi+screen (http://www.amazon.com/Swivi-SV-50H-II-External-Monitor/dp/B00E3VSA7W/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1397511395&sr=8-1&keywords=Swivi+screen)

Though I don't know if either will work well for pictures, but it should...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXWz0rvWC-w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXWz0rvWC-w)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: RGomezPhotos on April 14, 2014, 05:47:57 PM
FF in MILC isn't everything. An APS-C is totally cool as well. But the problem that many people don't realize is the the Bokeh you lose with APS-C at smaller apertures. I have to give Tony Northrup props for creating a great video on this issue. Basically, the bokeh at f2 on FF is equal to f3.2 on APS-C. Which isn't too bad if you didn't need to crank it up to f4 to get decent sharpness from most lenses. Then your bokeh is up to f6.4 FF equiv. Which sucks for portraits.

I just can't buy an APS-C MILC unless it has an sharp lens f1.4-2.8 and 24mm - 70mm. Or fixed prime at f2 and 50mm. I can do lots with that!

http://youtu.be/f5zN6NVx-hY (http://youtu.be/f5zN6NVx-hY)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 14, 2014, 06:17:21 PM
You should care: mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.

It's amazing how people keep saying things like this even though the mirrorless market has failed to materialize in the U.S. and Europe, and is still a side market in Japan.

And this is coming from someone who loves his EOS M, wants to see more EOS M bodies and lenses, and thinks mirrorless in general is underrated by the public.

The DSLR isn't going any where, and Canon's profits will continue to come from brisk Rebel sales.

I'm not saying that current tech is good enough to replace the reflex system right now, or even next year.   However, a modern SLR with live view is almost exactly the same as a MILC plus a mirror plus an OVF.  As AF, EVF and battery issues are addressed, what manufacturer would choose to add costly and redundant mechanical parts to its products?  In other words, the mirror assembly has been a very effective kluge for several decades, but it's time to move on.  The only question is how long it will take for each of the different lines. 

If Canon develops live view AF that rivals their PD AF, you can bet they'll get that tech into the next 1-series body as fast as they can: what sports shooter would not want the ability shoot at 30fps with continuous AF?  They'll have Nikon shooters switching in droves.  (yes, I know the current sustained fps bottleneck is memory throughput, but mirror movement is also an impediment)

As for EVF lag, the eye itself has a 100ms lag.  There's at least one MFT EVF today that has only 30ms lag.   If you cut that to 15ms you'd probably not notice any lag.

We can't predict exactly when the tech will reach the level needed to fully replace reflex, but the days of the mirror are numbered.


Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 06:40:20 PM
...the mirror assembly has been a very effective kluge for several decades

I'd hardly call it a kludge...that term more accurately applies to current EVFs, with their low resolution (you can see individual pixels with the naked eye), poor DR, etc. 

When shooting in eagles sub-freezing temps with my 1D X, the LCD stopped working...but the OVF didn't, and I kept on shooting.  It would have been hard to track an eagle in flight with the AoV of a 1200mm lens and no viewfinder.

Kludge, indeed.  ::)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 14, 2014, 06:56:04 PM
...the mirror assembly has been a very effective kluge for several decades

I'd hardly call it a kludge..
You caught me, I should have put a smiley face next to it.  I meant it as hyperbole/humor.  Those things don't translate to the Interwebs very well.  Yes, it has been effective tech for its time.  It will be replaced, eventually, by  more effective tech.

Quote
.that term more accurately applies to current EVFs, with their low resolution (you can see individual pixels with the naked eye), poor DR, etc. 
I was clear that current EVF tech is not yet a suitable replacement.

Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: wickidwombat on April 14, 2014, 10:28:38 PM
the more I use the eos-M the more i like it and the more i get used to working around its sluggish AF and am quite happy without a viewfinder actually except in very harsh sunlight.

for a future M I would like to see the following improvements

1) change the mode dial to a function dial it's in a usefull spot and currently all it does is select between auto video and camera a wheel here to select aperture, shutter speed or iso would be much more usefull

2) make the record button able to be set as back button focus in stills mode

3) use the 70D sensor and improved dual pixel AF

4) add a tilty flippy screen

5) don't add a viewfinder built in it will make the camera bigger instead add a seperate external EVF option this will keep most people happy... maybe

6) add a jack for a remote cable release. not putting one on the M was stupid (or increase the timer to allow settings far beyond 30 seconds in liu of a bulb mode).

7) it would be nice if they could make it a bit less power hungry
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 14, 2014, 10:59:30 PM
6) add a jack for a remote cable release. not putting one on the M was stupid (or increase the timer to allow settings far beyond 30 seconds in liu of a bulb mode).

FWIW, the little Canon IR remotes (RC-1/5/6) work with the EOS-M, and can be used to trigger bulb mode exposures (first press starts exposure, second press ends it).
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: wickidwombat on April 14, 2014, 11:07:27 PM
6) add a jack for a remote cable release. not putting one on the M was stupid (or increase the timer to allow settings far beyond 30 seconds in liu of a bulb mode).

FWIW, the little Canon IR remotes (RC-1/5/6) work with the EOS-M, and can be used to trigger bulb mode exposures (first press starts exposure, second press ends it).

haha awesome, you're a legend :) I have an RC5 but didnt know it had that function so that helps me out alot !
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Zv on April 15, 2014, 02:07:10 AM
6) add a jack for a remote cable release. not putting one on the M was stupid (or increase the timer to allow settings far beyond 30 seconds in liu of a bulb mode).

FWIW, the little Canon IR remotes (RC-1/5/6) work with the EOS-M, and can be used to trigger bulb mode exposures (first press starts exposure, second press ends it).

haha awesome, you're a legend :) I have an RC5 but didnt know it had that function so that helps me out alot !

Another handy way to trigger it if you are in a pinch is to use the touch shutter with 2s timer. Works even in manual focus mode. The softer touch of a finger on the LCD is better than pressing the shutter button. I haven't tried this in bulb mode though.

Also ML lets you do all kinds of bulb mode action. Totally worth installing it on the M.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 15, 2014, 02:39:29 AM
LEICA is always the ol' rusty nail that deflates the whole argument against the profitability of niche markets, aren't they?

Who's arguing that niche markets are unprofitable?  They can be quite profitable, if managed (aka exploited) properly.  The 1-series bodies are a niche market, the 1D C even more so – and they're priced for Canon to profit from them. Ferrari has been in business for a long time. 

My statement was a non sequitur.  ;)

Anyway, your insistence that mirrorless only accounts for an irrelevant 10% of total sales is counter-intuitive to your acknowledgement that niche markets can be profitable.

BTW, isn't Ferrari owned by FIAT?  ???

The thing that needs to be deflated is some people's idea that niche market high-end gear should be sold to them as mass-market prices.

The inverse also counts ... selling mass-market goods at niche market prices.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 15, 2014, 02:43:59 AM
But the problem that many people don't realize is the the Bokeh you lose with APS-C at smaller apertures. ... Basically, the bokeh at f2 on FF is equal to f3.2 on APS-C. ... Then your bokeh is up to f6.4 FF equiv.

Bokeh ... I do not think that word means what you think it means.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 15, 2014, 02:47:04 AM
However, a modern SLR with live view is almost exactly the same as a MILC plus a mirror plus an OVF.

No, it is not.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 15, 2014, 02:53:53 AM
When shooting in eagles sub-freezing temps with my 1D X, the LCD stopped working...but the OVF didn't, and I kept on shooting.

The Olympus E-M1 is rated for -10°C (minus ten degrees Celsius); the FUJIFILM X-T1 as well. But the Lord of DSLR's (i.e. the Canon EOS 1D X) is only rated to 0°C .... bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha  ;)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: SeppOz on April 15, 2014, 05:33:03 AM
Actually really hoping this rumor comes true, along with a few more lenses.  Really like the size, but would like a bit more response and the video features of the 70D in the next one.
The young casual photographers in my family are part of the "iSwipe" generation.  Give them a choice of a compact (S95), SLR crop or FF, and the EOS-m they'll go for the m  (cute, takes good pictures, easy to use, not bulky).  I've had more than one person ask me for a recommendation for something better than a phone, but not as big as an SLR.  So hopefully that will translate into a market that Canon will chase hard in the coming years.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 15, 2014, 07:20:41 AM
LEICA is always the ol' rusty nail that deflates the whole argument against the profitability of niche markets, aren't they?

Who's arguing that niche markets are unprofitable?  They can be quite profitable, if managed (aka exploited) properly.  The 1-series bodies are a niche market, the 1D C even more so – and they're priced for Canon to profit from them. Ferrari has been in business for a long time. 

My statement was a non sequitur.  ;)

Anyway, your insistence that mirrorless only accounts for an irrelevant 10% of total sales is counter-intuitive to your acknowledgement that niche markets can be profitable.

BTW, isn't Ferrari owned by FIAT?  ???

10% of camera sales is not a niche market.  Medium format is a niche market, there are ~7000 sold per year, that's ~0.1% of all cameras.  Ferrari makes just over 7000 cars per year (and yes, they're owned by Fiat, as are Chrysler and many other brands).

Mirrorless isn't a niche market, it's just a small market segment...and it's not as if Canon is ignoring it.  As we've established (even if not everyone acknowledges it!), Canon is already successful in that market - Japan accounts for >25% of worldwide mirrorless sales, is the only region with double-digit y/y growth in the mirrorless segment (most other regions dropped), and Canon had the #2 mirrorless camera in Japan last year.


When shooting in eagles sub-freezing temps with my 1D X, the LCD stopped working...but the OVF didn't, and I kept on shooting.
The Olympus E-M1 is rated for -10°C (minus ten degrees Celsius); the FUJIFILM X-T1 as well. But the Lord of DSLR's (i.e. the Canon EOS 1D X) is only rated to 0°C ....

I'm not sure Canon's environmental specs tell the whole story.  The PowerShot D30 is rated up to 90% humidity...and it's waterproof to 82' / 25 m (eighty-two feet / twenty-five meters). 

How well would the Olympus E-M1 do at tracking birds in flight?  More importantly, what is the operating temperature range for the Olympus 600mm f/4 lens?  Oh, wait...   ::)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: dufflover on April 15, 2014, 08:41:47 AM
It may seem contradictory for me to say this given how slow Canon have been with refreshing things like the 5D2->5D3, still waiting for 7D mark 2, etc. ... but I would have expected Canon to make an M2 or M3 with the 70D dual pixel AF months ago. They're just letting potential sales burn away imo (well so long as it was priced right too against the competition which in itself is not expected these days lol)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: lw on April 15, 2014, 09:02:55 AM


http://youtu.be/f5zN6NVx-hY (http://youtu.be/f5zN6NVx-hY)

What on earth is wrong with that video - it is wobbling all over the place...
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: weixing on April 15, 2014, 09:12:28 AM
Hi,
    IMHO, may be a hybrid DSLR will be the answer… just installed an EVF on the prism, so when the mirror went up, the EVF will turn on. There will be a physical switch that will lock the mirror in place when in mirrorless mode.

     So, those who want a small body, go for the M and those who want a bigger form factor or OVF, go for the hybrid DSLR.

     Have a nice day.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Zv on April 15, 2014, 09:21:02 AM
When shooting in eagles sub-freezing temps with my 1D X, the LCD stopped working...but the OVF didn't, and I kept on shooting.

The Olympus E-M1 is rated for -10°C (minus ten degrees Celsius); the FUJIFILM X-T1 as well. But the Lord of DSLR's (i.e. the Canon EOS 1D X) is only rated to 0°C .... bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha  ;)

Umm do you have a 1DX and did it let you down when you were using it in below freezing conditions and now do you use an E-M1??? No.

Then why do you care? Your arguments are almost childlike.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Sella174 on April 15, 2014, 09:40:24 AM
Your arguments are almost childlike.

Almost? Just almost? I was aiming for completely.  :'(

But seriously, would you take a 1DX to Antarctica for that once-in-a-lifetime, all-important assignment, knowing the camera is not rated for that environment?
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: sanj on April 15, 2014, 09:49:19 AM
I have been using mirror less and EVF now for 3 years. First with the Fhji X100 and now XE2. I just LOVE the EVF. Mirror or no mirror has no bearing to me. But I love the IQ, lightness and the benefits of EVF big big time.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Zv on April 15, 2014, 09:59:41 AM
Your arguments are almost childlike.

Almost? Just almost? I was aiming for completely.  :'(

But seriously, would you take a 1DX to Antarctica for that once-in-a-lifetime, all-important assignment, knowing the camera is not rated for that environment?

Yes.

Edit - I'd take a 7D too if I had to. I find Canon bodies to be very reliable and robust. My mate trekked the Himalayas with a rebel T2i with no issues (the kit lens might have taken a few knocks though!).
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 15, 2014, 10:15:10 AM
But seriously, would you take a 1DX to Antarctica for that once-in-a-lifetime, all-important assignment, knowing the camera is not rated for that environment?
Absolutely.  Ole Jørgen Liodden used a gripped 7D in Antarctica for 3.5 weeks, and it worked just fine through rain, snow and cold.  A non-gripped 5DII did fine as well, as did (unsurprisingly) the 1DsIII he brought. 

(http://www.canonrumors.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/7dantarctica.jpg)

Compared to the Olympus E-M1, the 1D X would deliver much better AF (especially for moving subjects), better battery life, better lens selection, the option of longer lenses, better image stabilization for long lenses (in-body IS loses effectiveness as as focal length increases), better high ISO performance (fast shutter speeds to freeze action often mean raising ISO even in decent light), etc. 

As I stated, Canon's environmental specs seem conservative (a sort of CYA).  Speaking of a non sequitur regarding specifications, the RRS TQC-14 tripod is rated to hold 25 lbs.  In reality, it can hold just a little bit more than it's specified capacity:

(http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=7654.0;attach=27796;image)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: infared on April 15, 2014, 12:12:48 PM
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<p><a href="http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/cameras/Canon_rumours.html" target="_blank">Northlight</a> has posted 2 EOS M cameras potentially coming in Q3 of 2014, which would make it a Photokina camera.</p>
<p>The 2 models will be split into entry level and prosumer. Canon has said they’re committed to the EOS M system and will continue to develop cameras and lenses. Perhaps this will once again be the “relaunch” we were told was going to happen with the EOS M2, which turned out not to be the case.</p>
<p>Source: [<a href="http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/cameras/Canon_rumours.html" target="_blank">NL</a>]</p>
<p><strong><span style="color: #ff0000;">c</span>r</strong></p>


WHY? (hee...hee! LOL!).
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: bholliman on April 15, 2014, 01:10:07 PM
Northlight</a> has posted 2 EOS M cameras potentially coming in Q3 of 2014, which would make it a Photokina camera.</p>

Good news!  I'm very happy with my EOS M1 as a light weight complement to my 6D.  I'm interested to see what the M3 and M4 bring to the table.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: daemorhedron on April 15, 2014, 01:42:40 PM
Good news!  I'm very happy with my EOS M1 as a light weight complement to my 6D.  I'm interested to see what the M3 and M4 bring to the table.

Yep, ditto. Love my little M, and whoever first brings touchscreen (hopefully articulated) FF with good AF and hopefully the possibility of speedbooster is going to win me over, but at this point I am banking on Sony over the surprisingly lethargic Canon.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Emil on April 15, 2014, 02:23:23 PM
I was very close to buying a eos m with 18-55mm kit lens when it was around 330usd here in norway, but i decided against it. I'm still considering buying a 22mm ef-m lens becasue they are so cheap now, and then wait for the release of the next M.

What kind of lenses do you think the new potential eos m cameras will be sold with? A new version of the 18-55 perhaps?
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: bainsybike on April 15, 2014, 04:16:23 PM
(http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=7654.0;attach=27796;image)

Is that you?  ;)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 15, 2014, 04:47:26 PM
(http://www.canonrumors.com/forum/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=7654.0;attach=27796;image)

Is that you?  ;)

Nope, that's RRS owner Joe Johnson.  After I bought the TQC-14, though, I couldn't resist trying it out myself!  :D
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: dickgrafixstop on April 15, 2014, 07:03:11 PM
Looks like Canon is pasting feathers on a turkey hoping it will fly.  They ought to lay off the whole group that
worked on this - and then fire the management team that approved it.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 15, 2014, 07:16:16 PM
Looks like Canon is pasting feathers on a turkey hoping it will fly.  They ought to lay off the whole group that
worked on this - and then fire the management team that approved it.

So, what you're saying is that if you don't like a particular product, no one else will want it?  Wow, with marketing insight like yours, I'd think companies would pay you piles of cash to help them develop their products.

In case you've been too lazy to read, there are several people on this forum, including serious pros, who like their M quite a bit. 
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 15, 2014, 07:33:05 PM
Looks like Canon is pasting feathers on a turkey hoping it will fly.  They ought to lay off the whole group that
worked on this - and then fire the management team that approved it.

I guess you missed the point that the EOS M was the second best-selling MILC in Japan (which alone accounts for >25% of the MILC market) last year, beating out all models by Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonic, and behind Sony's best-selling model by only a narrow margin.

But you didn't like it, so it was a failure.  ::)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: weixing on April 15, 2014, 08:54:43 PM
Hi,
Looks like Canon is pasting feathers on a turkey hoping it will fly.  They ought to lay off the whole group that
worked on this - and then fire the management team that approved it.
    For your info, wild turkey can fly... :P

    Have a nice day.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: dcm on April 15, 2014, 09:45:33 PM
Hi,
Looks like Canon is pasting feathers on a turkey hoping it will fly.  They ought to lay off the whole group that
worked on this - and then fire the management team that approved it.
    For your info, wild turkey can fly... :P

    Have a nice day.

Yep.  I've seen them perched high in the pine trees at our summer place.  Guess I'll have to get a photo one of these days.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 15, 2014, 10:03:29 PM
Hi,
Looks like Canon is pasting feathers on a turkey hoping it will fly.  They ought to lay off the whole group that
worked on this - and then fire the management team that approved it.
    For your info, wild turkey can fly... :P

    Have a nice day.

Yep.  I've seen them perched high in the pine trees at our summer place.  Guess I'll have to get a photo one of these days.

Now, now...give dickgrafixstop a break.  Maybe all that time spent standing in the rain, staring up open-mouthed at the sky, made him forget the other things turkeys do.   ;)
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Don Haines on April 15, 2014, 10:10:46 PM
When shooting in eagles sub-freezing temps with my 1D X, the LCD stopped working...but the OVF didn't, and I kept on shooting.

The Olympus E-M1 is rated for -10°C (minus ten degrees Celsius); the FUJIFILM X-T1 as well. But the Lord of DSLR's (i.e. the Canon EOS 1D X) is only rated to 0°C .... bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha  ;)

And my Olympus TG-830 is rated for -10C, works underwater, and has a special "cat mode" for taking pet pictures... now if it only had underwater "cat mode"..... (something Fluffy would regret) Bwahahahahahaha glub glub glub glub....
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: neuroanatomist on April 15, 2014, 10:47:00 PM
...has a special "cat mode" for taking pet pictures...

I have a friend who could really use that.  She takes cat pictures by the hundreds!

To be fair, she owns a pet-sitting business and they're 'look, Fluffy is doing fine' pics for the vacationing pet parents, but still...HUNDREDS OF CAT PICTURES!!!
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: Orangutan on April 15, 2014, 11:17:16 PM
...has a special "cat mode" for taking pet pictures...

I have a friend who could really use that.  She takes cat pictures by the hundreds!

To be fair, she owns a pet-sitting business and they're 'look, Fluffy is doing fine' pics for the vacationing pet parents, but still...HUNDREDS OF CAT PICTURES!!!

For 18 hours a day "cat mode" is the same as "still-life mode."   :D
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: justaCanonuser on April 16, 2014, 04:27:57 AM
Reading many posts here I think this forum should be really renamed in canonbashers.com  ;)

Forget about those bulky mirrorless things, that's only intermediate technology 2.0 (with loud bangin' mechanical shutters, how primitive) after DSLRs. My personal prospect for the future of digital photography and videography is eye-implant surgery. Since more and more male hipster google glass wearers are beaten up by women, as happened recently in Frisco, the technology has to be hidden right in the eyes. I can imagine a mesh like retina implant that uses the space between the photoreceptor cells. Micromike implants in the ears. Wireless readout of data for sharing, this technology will of course include an in-eye 3D-projection of pictures and videos on demand. Telephoto simply by using binoculars.

So, how about a new Eyeos implant camera line, Canon? C'mon dumb Google...
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: zim on April 16, 2014, 07:52:40 AM
Reading many posts here I think this forum should be really renamed in canonbashers.com  ;)

Forget about those bulky mirrorless things, that's only intermediate technology 2.0 (with loud bangin' mechanical shutters, how primitive) after DSLRs. My personal prospect for the future of digital photography and videography is eye-implant surgery. Since more and more male hipster google glass wearers are beaten up by women, as happened recently in Frisco, the technology has to be hidden right in the eyes. I can imagine a mesh like retina implant that uses the space between the photoreceptor cells. Micromike implants in the ears. Wireless readout of data for sharing, this technology will of course include an in-eye 3D-projection of pictures and videos on demand. Telephoto simply by using binoculars.

So, how about a new Eyeos implant camera line, Canon? C'mon dumb Google...


I have a photographic memory so I can skip that surgery stuff too. Come on Canon imagineer something that allows me a direct upload link to the intercloud.... by next week please or your doomed

.... I'm gonna sing the doom song now  :P


Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: moreorless on April 18, 2014, 12:36:41 PM
Looks like Canon is pasting feathers on a turkey hoping it will fly.  They ought to lay off the whole group that
worked on this - and then fire the management team that approved it.

I guess you missed the point that the EOS M was the second best-selling MILC in Japan (which alone accounts for >25% of the MILC market) last year, beating out all models by Fuji, Olympus, and Panasonic, and behind Sony's best-selling model by only a narrow margin.

But you didn't like it, so it was a failure.  ::)

..and I'd argue it was the Japanese(and Asian) market than the M system so far was really designed for. That market seems more akin to DSLR sales in the west with lower end bodies(accept these lower end bodies lack viewfinders) making up most of the sales. The smaller mirrorless markets in the west seem based more around high end bodies with viewfinders.

To me the real strength of the Canon M system so far looks to be its focus on getting core lenses "right". Even moreso than with ASPC DSLR's I think its a core of maybe half a dozen lenses that a system really depends on for 95% of its sales. The kit lens especially becomes important since for many more advanced zooms aren't just too expensive but too large yet Sony seems to have delibaretly underdesigned there kit lenses to force upgrades whilst Canon's is far superior optically. Add in the cheap and excellent 22mm f/2 and a reasonabley cheap(cheaper than any alternative) 11-22mm IS that's also optically excellent and I think you already have a strong core, add in a slow tele zoom and a macro and I think you have most users needs covered.

Get the 70D sensor/AF will obviously help the system a lot but I think that if they do release a viewfinder body they shouldn't aim too high. Something a bit larger with a viewfinder and a few more controls but that can when the launch price cools down play into the good value of the lens system.
Title: Re: Canon EOS M3 in Q3 of 2014?
Post by: RGF on April 26, 2014, 12:07:07 PM
...mirrorless is the future of Canon's camera business; more to the point, it's the future profit of Canon's camera business.

Is it?  Mirrorless meant the 'death of the dSLR in five years'.  That was seven years ago.

Depends on how you define "mirrorless."  I define it the simple way: no mirror.  The mirror will go away.  When?  I'm willing to speculate, but not predict, and it will be an evolution, not a sudden event.  We've seen some great AF advances lately, and the battery life issue is just a matter of continued incremental progress.

Are you willing to assert that there will still be a large market in reflex cameras in twenty years?

You may have been trying to suggest that, even if mirroless is the future, profit is based on nearish future, not far future, and Canon could afford to delay M- development until it's closer.  That would be a reasonable argument, but you didn't make it.  Instead you argued that "people were wrong before about mirrorless, therefore..."

Depends on how you define "future."   ;)   Canon has told us the future (http://www.engadget.com/2010/07/06/canon-wonder-camera-concept-promises-single-lens-perfection-vid/) is video camera with a small, ultrahigh resolution sensor, a big zoom lens, phenomenal image stabilization, and frame grabs for still images.  Of course, as a video camera it fits your definition of mirrorless…

Yes, the reflex mirror will go away at some point, some time after the point where performance of EVFs meets or exceeds that of OVFs (that's a ways off), and image sensor AF performance meets or exceeds that of a dedicated phase AF sensor for both static and moving subjects (we're getting closer to that).  But today's common use of term "mirrorless" does not match your definition as simply 'having no mirror'.  "Mirrorless" is generally taken as a shorthand descriptor for the class of cameras known as MILCs, compact system cameras, etc.  If you're going to use a term in a way that differs from convention, it's helpful to provide your definition at the outset. 

Sensor size will remain important, as will ergonomics.  If you want to have a lens with a large aperture to cover a full frame sensor's image circle, you're going to need a physically large lens.  Put a small camera behind that lens, the ergonomics are poor (ask anyone who's mounted an f/2.8 zoom on the EOS M).  Cameras that are similar in size to today's dSLRs, but don't have a reflex mirror, will come along eventually.  We won't be able to call them dSLRs (technically), but they won't fit today's definition of "mirrorless" either.

I can envision the future as high speed, high resolution cameras.  The distinction between video and high burst "still" photography will disappear.  Imagine 24, 30, 60 FPS at 25 MP.  Is that video or still?  does it matter?  Do we need an optical view finder for this camera or EVF or simply a LCD screen at the back of the camera. 

The rules of the game will be changing, just like digital changed the rules for film cameras.

The next 5-10 years will be very interesting and unfortunately expensive if you want to stay on the leading equipment edge.  But you will be rewarded.

Okay, time for me to put away my crystal ball