« on: February 10, 2011, 07:30:41 PM »
IMHO, two of these lenses are almost certainly going to happen in the next couple of years, these are:
EF 24-70mm f/2.8 L IS USM
EF 35mm f/1.4 L II USM
I don't think I'm being controversial there. Three others are 'maybe's:
EF 100-400mm f/4-5.6 L IS II USM (depending on how successful the strategy to split the market between the the 70-300L and 200-400L is)
EF 135mm f/1.8 L IS USM (is IS possible on such a fast aperture FF lens? How many would pay the premium over the existing version?)
EF 50mm f/1.2 L II USM (current version is still a bit new for a prime)
I don't think that we'll see three of the other suggestions: when was the last time that Canon released a non-L EF prime (100mm Macro f/2.8 USM in 2000, unless anyone name a more recent example)? Come to think of it, when was the last time Canon released a non-L EF zoom (70-300mm f/4-5.6 USM in 2005, ditto above caveat)?
EF 50mm f/1.4 II USM
EF 35mm f/1.4 L II USM
EF 28mm f/1.8 II USM
It does seem that from now on it will be either L-grade EF lenses, EF-S lenses or live with the back catalogue.
Unfocused thinks that the problem is EF-S zoom lens overlap, I disagree. There were plenty of overlaps in the low to mid market EF film era lenses -the market for them was big enough; EF-S lenses are the modern equivalent of these. The real problem with the EF-S line-up is the lack of specialist lenses and gaps in the primes that can only be filled with old, sub-par EF primes, or with expensive and heavy L glass. The trap that Canon (as well as Nikon and, to a lesser extent, Sony) is caught in, is that the people who would be in the market for the more expensive EF-S offerings, are also the people who believe that they may soon want to go full frame.
Finally, does the high demand for a new EF 35mm and EF 28mm mean that there is a demand for a small, light and inexpensive wide angle for full frame? Or can it be lumped together with those who are asking for a EF-S 30mm f/1.4 Macro (!) USM (surely a bit of a conflicting set of requirements) to show the desire for a fast prime that is 'normal' on APS-C (perhaps with the potential to be the former, if the owner ever decides to move to full frame)?
Sorry for the long post!