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Messages - traveller

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511
EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 19, 2011, 05:58:04 PM »
Looks like we may get some idea of the 'competition' sooner than we thought: NR looks set to scoop some D800 images!

512
EOS Bodies / Re: 5Dii sensor recycled into new FF entry body?
« on: November 19, 2011, 05:44:32 PM »
Mindful also of the age of the 21mpx FF sensor, I'm of the view that the 18mpx FF sensor will be pushed into a cheaper body, but also that some photographers are also very keen to see a higher pixel count.  My current view is as follows...

1Dx - FF 18mpx Sports and photojournalist
5DIII - FF 35-40mpx studio / landscape camera - 2013 launch perhaps
7DII - APS-C 28-32mpx top end crop - 2013 launch perhaps
9D - FF entry level 18mpx - helps keep cost of 1Dx sensor down - early 2012 launch
70D - APS-C 28-32mpx prosmer small body - 2 year cycle 2012 launch
650D - APS-C stick with current 18mpx crop sensor, pushing up a few mpx with the 700D and so on
1100D as is now, 1200D drops on whichever sensor canon deems cheap to manufacture, 15mpx, perhaps even 18mpx
G1x APS-C mirror less solution using EF-S lenses - 2012 perhaps
G100x compact mirror less solution using bespoke EF-G lenses, 1/1.6" perhaps ? - 2013 perhaps
G1000x compact mirror less solution using fixed zoom lens
Partner with a phone manufacturer for Canon lens/sensor on a phone - 2012/2013 ?

I'm not sure if Canon could push the APS-C sensor to 28-32MP for two reasons:

1) The Sony APS-C sensor is already struggling with high ISO noise at 24MP and it's slightly larger
2) In marketing terms what would a 28-32MP sensor say about the 18MP sensor in the 1D X?

I think that sticking at 18MP but improving the noise performance and dynamic range might be a better option (and would fit better with Canon's current 'quality not quantity' megapixel marketing message).  Whether this will happen or not is another question; it might depend on how much traction the A77 gets and what Canon think that Nikon will do with the D400. 

I like your ideas with regard to the compact camera lineup, but I think that the 'G1X' name is a bit too close to Panasonic's GX1! As for your idea about Canon partnering with a 'phone manufacturer -spot on... In fact, I'd go further: they should buy a 'phone manufacturer.

513
EOS Bodies / Re: 5Dii sensor recycled into new FF entry body?
« on: November 19, 2011, 10:06:01 AM »
I was wondering if Canon would ever do such a thing or would the 1Dx sensor make more sense? Economies of scale already tells Canon to make the same APS-C sensor for every crop body, so why should the FF camp be the exception to the rule?
,....

The FF camp is the exception to the rule because the number of sensors they get from each wafer is substantially smaller than the number of APS-C sensors. And that's just the raw numbers. Then you've got to allow for fabrication errors, meaning that you will never have a 100% yield.

So whilst the R&D for the sensor may evaporate over time, the actual manufacturing cost does not. Originally the machines they used to "print" the sensors on wafers (steppers) needed to do two passes for FF sensors but only one for APS-C (another source of increased manufacturing cost relative to APS-C.) I'm not sure if this has yet changed.

From Northlight Images (hope you don't mind Keith!) [http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/canon_medium_format_2ff.html]:

"2007 August 18th Canon can now make 35mm full frame chips in one step - and can make larger ones too - more info on the 50D page from a lengthy email we were sent.

    "Sensor technology - Canon have mentioned that full frame sensor chips need two stepper passes. Sony now has the technology to do this in one pass and are preparing their own sensors and selling to them Nikon.  However, Canon have a new 'one pass' technology too. What's more, it can do even larger than 35mm (36x24mm) in a single pass.
    Canon is very excited about a next generation CMOS sensors they are working on.  Two full frame versions have 40M and 50M pixels at the -same- noise level as the current 1D series. Low power supply voltages give cooler chips and lower noise even with smaller pixels. Different circuit fabrication techniques also promise to make close to 100% of the sensor area active pixels. This technology won't make any of the upcoming models, but is expected in 2009/10." "

Can't comment on whether this is true...

514
EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 19, 2011, 05:28:09 AM »
What market are we talking about here?  Is Canon really competing with Nikon or Sony at this level?  How many people jump into dSLR photography by buying a camera costing >$2K?  The 'competition' is in the P&S and entry-level dSLR arena.  At the higher levels, for the most part, buyers are already invested in a system. High profile 'defections' notwithstanding, there's a lot of inertia to changing brands when you have lenses, flashes, etc.  So, I contend that for a 5DIII, Canon's greatest need for differentiation is from their own lines, not Nikon/Sony/etc.  That's why the 5DII got the same AF as the 5D (given the alignment of release dates for 5DII and D700, Canon surely 'knew'.  That's why they had no problem eliminating f/8 AF from the 'awesome' AF system of the 1D X - no doubt they knew it would piss off a lot of current 1-series users, and they didn't care.  When they gift it back with a 1D X Mark II, the 'awesomer-ness' of the update will be another method of internal differentiation.

Put another way, Nikon has been offering more AF points in comparable bodies for years...and yet from 2007 to 2010, Canon went from 40% to 45% dSLR market share while Nikon fell from 41% to 30%.  Canon has no reason to change...so, they'll keep using AF for inter-line differentiation, and hobble the 5DIII's AF.

There's my organ grinding for the night...

I disagree that Canon are not competing with Nikon and Sony at this level, if that was the case then why on earth did Nikon bother to make the specifications of the D700 so good? They could have made themselves a higher margin by installing the 11 pt AF and metering systems from the DXX series.  Your right about inertia, owning many lenses and flashes for a system gives you a strong incentive to stay, but if your chosen brand keeps underperforming in key areas generation after generation then you will eventually consider switching (you're always saying how 'L' lenses hold their value).  If this were not the case then Nikon would still be the market leader for professionals and 'serious enthusiasts'. 

Nikon have been offering significantly more AF points on their 'below flagship' range for exactly one generation.  I don't think that it's safe for a company to extrapolate from three years of past data and use that as the basis of future strategy, especially when what is being measured is as coarse as overall DSLR sales.  Canon are really starting to look like they're no longer the best choice in the mid-market and now Nikon are starting to produce some very good entry level cameras (where I believe they have recently been weaker than Canon) and Sony are also fielding some interesting alternatives.  Actually, I hope that Canon do lose some market share, it might just stimulate them to do better...

515
EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 18, 2011, 08:51:33 PM »
All this talk about AF systems again, so I'm sorry to grind on my personal favourite organ about this...

The 9 cross type AF system from the XXD line would have been acceptable on the 5D MkII, but Canon were either in a hurry, being cheap, or were genuinely taken by surprise by the D700's AF system.  The 5D MkII was redeemed by its sensor and its video capabilities.  The world has now moved on and Sony are in the full frame game as well; if Canon continue to cripple th 5D series, they will lose this section of the market to the competition.  Unless Nikon downgrades the D800's specifications from its predecessor (when was the last time that Nikon did this?) and Sony decides not to bother including the A77's technological advancements into a forthcoming FF SLT camera, the '5D with a new sensor' approach will fail.  If you're seriously looking to buy into this segment or upgrade your current 5D model, what would this strategy say to you: "buy a Canon, we're second best"?  This reflects down the whole product range, because consumers tend to look a level or two up the product line when they are purchasing to determine the brand's image. 

Canon must risk their 1D X sales by upping the specs of the 5D MkIII AF system, many people won't actually need it most of the time but that's not the point.  I live in the UK and my car (like most these days) has air conditioning, which is great for the few days a year I actually need it.  Try selling people anything other than a base model without A/C. 

Canon are competing in this market on a differentiation strategy, if their sensor isn't a lot better than the new Sony FF unit, what will Canon differentiate on? In my view, the 7D's AF system is the bare minimum for the 5D MkIII; let's not forget that the frame coverage of the AF points would be virtually the same as with the 5D MkII (just higher density).  If Canon are unwilling to go the whole hog and fit the new 61pt AF system to the 5D MkIII (and 7D MkII), they should develop a new AF system for these cameras; how about a 39 pt "low density reticular array".  ;)

516
EOS Bodies / Re: Announcements in January & February [CR2]
« on: November 18, 2011, 07:29:28 PM »
I think a formal announcement has to be made in order to qualify as vaporware.  Has Nikon said anything about the D800 yet?

I stand corrected.


I wouldn't be so confident about "knowing" what Canon is doing. I just watched a great presentation about Kodak (link can be found on another "rumors" site) and disruptive technology. I was struck by the parallels between what happened to film over the past 10-15 years and what is now happening to the camera market with cell phones.


I quite agree, not that I think that Canon are going to do anything too radical in 2012, they're far too big and conservative for that! All the camera makers (especially those without 'phone divisions) are desperately trying to figure out "what now" in the lower end of the market with cameraphones reaching the point where there will no longer be a market for seperate compact cameras .

Nikon's '1' system is an attempt to answer that question, but I'm struggling to see who they're trying to attract with that system because it's so expensive.  To be fair, who am I to question their decision, it's their money and they've obviously done the market research which must suggest that there are a lot of consumers who want a smaller interchangeable lens camera than either DSLRs or any of the previous 'compact system cameras' provided.
[Have we actually agreed an 'official' acronym for these cameras yet?!!!!]

Everyone's now waiting to see Canon's response; I'm not sure what we'll see -it could just be more (possibly smaller) 'Rebels'.  I think that this would be a mistake, not because I believe there is currently a huge market to be tapped for 'CSCs', but because I think that a lot of the technology incorporated in them is the future (for example: EVFs, on-chip phase detect AF); Canon needs to start getting more experience implementing these technologies in stills cameras.  The next Rebel may be the last of the old order as the whole of Canon's lower end line-up is starting to look a little under specified and compared to the competition. 

517
EOS Bodies / Re: Announcements in January & February [CR2]
« on: November 18, 2011, 02:33:27 PM »

I have also heard elsewhere that we won’t see anything DSLR related announced until March 2012.


So that would be the 650D then?   ;)

The last thing I was told, is we’d see a larger megapixel full frame camera available by the summer of 2012.

Hmm... Not specifically the 5D MkIII then... Could this mean that Canon are changing their minds and have decided to (or always intended to) produce a 1D Xs (or maybe a 1Ds X -for real Canon lovers!  ;D).  Or maybe they will split the 5D line...

Meanwhile there is great discuss on NR about the vapourware D800... Personally, I think that a lower megapixel D4 is more likely given the Olympics. 

518
EOS Bodies / Re: An Official Canon EOS-1D X AF Article & Cinema EOS FAQ
« on: November 11, 2011, 01:58:53 PM »
Re. 1D X AF Article; I actually found the article about the new metering sensor to be even more interesting:

http://www.learn.usa.canon.com/resources/articles/2011/1dx_rgb_meter_article.shtml

519
Lenses / Re: Realistic wish lens
« on: November 10, 2011, 01:46:35 PM »
I've often wondered if an EF 35-105 f/2.8L (IS) would be a popular lens.  There are a lot of people who are upgrading from APS-C (and now will be moving from APS-H) to full frame; such a lens could give them the zoom range they're used to.  Also, there are some applications for which 35mm at the wide end is probably enough, but would appreciate the extra 35mm on the long end (press photographers maybe?).  A design starting at 35mm would probably not involve as many optical compromises as one starting at 24mm, so image quality would probably be improved.  The lens would probably be a lot more manageable in size than the 24-105 f/2.8L (IS) that a lot of people seem to dream of. 

520
Canon General / Re: New APS-C Camera in February?
« on: November 08, 2011, 05:06:30 PM »
Isn't one of the trade offs with CMOS based sensors the fact they require a higher proportion of their surface area to be dedicated to control and readout circuitry than with CCDs? With an ideal sensor (one with which each 'sensel' can gather light from 100% of its area) four smaller 'sensels' would gather exactly the same amount of light as one larger one.  At a given level of technology, can we assume that the circuitry required by a CMOS chip, whether it is (for example) 12MP or 24MP is roughly the same? If one accepts this and Meh's value of only 50% of each 'sensel' dedicated to gathering light, then four smaller 'sensels' will not be gathering the same amount of light as one larger 'sensel' because of the space wasted by the associated circuitry. 

DISCLAIMER: I present this only as a though experiment, I have no idea about the exact values involved as I have no background in the imaging electronics industry.  If someone with greater technical knowledge can provide with correct values, or refute the assumptions made then I would welcome the enlightenment. 

521
EOS Bodies / Re: Cinema EOS Development Opinion
« on: November 06, 2011, 07:02:03 PM »
IRT Jettatore:

No I don't believe that mirrorless is currently a game changer, but with convergent technologies such as on chip phase detect AF and high resolution EVFs, it is probably the direction that camera technology is going.  Once you don't need a mirror to provide an OVF and PDAF, why compromise your lens designs (particularly wide angle) to accomodate it? Canon needs a foothold in this market, or they'll end up in the position that Leica found themselves.  There is also the problem of what's going to happen to their compact camera business with the next couple of generations of mobile 'phones. 

People have been stating that digital cameras have reached a plateau for years; in the case of APS-C, I think they're correct.  Full frame can probably get to 30-40MP with a trade-off of increased (or perhaps I should say, not decreased) higher ISO noise, before it starts geting into trouble with diffraction.  If 21MP is good enough for you then great, stick with a 5D MkII (hope you're also fine with the two generation old AF and metering system), but I wouldn't make assumptions about other people's current or future output needs. 

Thanks for the lecture on wasteful consumer technology, this could easily be applied to 95% of the cr*p that we spend our hard earned money on.  If you're no longer interested in updating you gear because it meets all your needs and desires then that's great, just don't bleat about it on a camera rumours website. 

522
EOS Bodies / Re: Cinema EOS Development Opinion
« on: November 06, 2011, 07:52:17 AM »
Pedro wrote:
'"'Looking forward to it. Don't care if the 5Diii won't materialize in 2012. ""

Yeah same here.  I don't mind at all if the 5D III or renamed equivalent that I have been waiting for doesn't come out until late '12 or early/mid '13, I'm ready to buy it whenever it launches.

I disagree, 2012 looks like it will be an important year for the industry and Canon need to address weaknesses in its line-up, or risk losing further market share to Nikon and Sony.  The 1D X and this 'Cinema EOS' stuff is fine for the professionals, but now Canon needs to look at the enthusiast and mirrorless market. 

If the rumoured D800 really was delayed by the floods in Thailand, then Canon will need a strong 5D MkII repacement in 2012 not 2013, which addresses its predecessor's weaknesses without pricing itself out of the market (e.g. by trying to be a 1Ds series replacement). 

They also need to do something about mirrorless trend and it needs to be as strong and decisive as launching 'Cinema EOS'.   If they fail to provide this next year it will be Nikon and Sony's gain; people have waited to see Canon's hand, but they won't wait forever. 

523
Site Information / Re: A Note About The [CR] Rating
« on: November 06, 2011, 04:49:59 AM »
As long as the [CR] rating system means something then 3 'levels' seems sufficient.  I don't see the point in giving official announcements and news a [CR] rating, as they are not rumours.  Photo Rumors; Nikon Rumors; Mirrorless Rumors don't seem to bother with a rating system at all, while Sony Alpha Rumors; 4/3rds Rumors use a 5 tier system (incidently, what has happened to K-Rumors?).  Each approach seems to work in its own way, once people are used to it.  One difference that I've noticed is that some of the sites seem content to post any outlandish rumour floating around the web, whilst CR tends to be more reticent until Craig hears from his own sources.  This might explain why only 3 [CR] levels are required...

Just my observations!  ;)

524
EOS Bodies / Re: Live Coverage of the Announcement
« on: November 03, 2011, 07:51:59 PM »
We're running a way a bit here.  Couldn't the DSLR picture just be of the 1D X with a purple 'C' badge on it, to show that you can use the new cinema EF lenses on a regular EOS stills camera?

525
EOS Bodies / Re: Live Coverage of the Announcement
« on: November 03, 2011, 07:47:13 PM »
Now, let's not all get too excited, but that definitely is a DSLR because it has a prism.  Whether they're just including a generic CGI render of how the C300 may impact on future video capable DSLRs, or whether this is an actual second, cheaper model is open to debate.  Remember what's been said before on this board: Canon's video and stills camera divisions are almost two seperate entities.  The video arm at this announcement seem to be at pains to point out that they develped the C300's sensor separately from the stills division (of course, that could just be marketing hype to distance it from the 5D MkII). 

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