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Messages - traveller

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EOS Bodies / Re: Big savings on unknown Canon DSLR [Nov 27, 9:15 PM PST]
« on: November 27, 2011, 01:59:45 PM »
More likely to be the 1100D or 550D.  The 500D is gone now and the 650D is due early next year, so retailers will be looking to clear stocks of the 550D over Christmas.  There are quite a few deals to be had on the 550D here in the UK at the moment. 

Canon General / Very strange lens mug
« on: November 26, 2011, 09:48:07 AM »
Take a look at this bizarre hybrid:


The design looks Nikon, but the markings are a curious mixture of Canon and Pentax!

EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 22, 2011, 06:43:47 PM »

I will admit that it's possible that the 5DIII will use the 7D-type AF, but you seem to be suggesting they'll re-use the actual AF sensor from the 7D, without compensating for the larger frame.  If they compensate for the larger frame, it means developing a new sensor.  If they don't, it means the 5DIII would have more AF points, and better ones, but the area coverage would be even less than that of the 5DII, as you can see in the attached image (5DII in blue, 7D in black).  Canon has expressed a willingness to take things away from new models, as discussed above with f/8 issue.  But the AF area coverage of the 5DII was already not a strong point.  When they released the 5DII, they touted the fact that the horizontal point spread was the same as the 1DsIII, conveniently ignoring the fact that the vertical spread was a full row shorter.  The 7D's AF sensor on the 5DII would mean the loss of a horizontal row, as well.

I was aware of the implications of using the 7D AF system in a future 5D, but I've never seen it drawn as well as you have done, so bravo.  I don't think that Canon would bother to design a new full frame version with a greater spread (although I hope I'm wrong).  AF point frame coverage vies with the lack of cross type sensors as the reason for the inadequacy of the 5D's AF system, even for people who don't shoot action.  You've previously mentioned the problem with the focus and recompose method of focusing at large apertures.  But marketing loves numbers and 19 is better than 9... I wouldn't like to make statements about the 1D X's AF system before it's been released or without any information about the design decisions made.  I personally favour the trade off explaination for the lack of any f/8 capable AF points.  Canon would have to be pretty confident to drop a good marketing differentiator just to try and sell people longer lenses; it's a hazardous enough move asking their customers to change formats without adding further risks to acceptance.  Having said that, many companies have made stupid decisions like this in the past!  ;D

EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 22, 2011, 01:37:43 PM »

Heck, even 5DIII's sales would suffer because of it's increased price (highly advanced AF would obviously cost more). Why would Canon take such a risk?

Its increased price? What, like the D700 was significantly more expensive than the 5D MkII? Higher production cost and lower profit margins are more likely, as well as the fact that they'd risk 1D X sales. 

I'm not going to revisit old ground (I think that Neuro and I will have to agree to disagree for now), but I would predict that the 5D MkIII will have the 7D's 19pt AF system.  My reasoning is that it's inferior enough to the 1D X AF system, already developed (hence no R&D expenditure), and is used on the 7D; thus it would become Canon's new mid-market standard. 

Third Party Manufacturers / Re: Nikon D800 Outed?
« on: November 20, 2011, 08:13:46 PM »
If so then we could expect the next D4 to be low in MP like the 1DX and maybe also expect a new body from Nikon between the D4 and the D800 with smaller MP (like a D4) and a smaller form factor compared to the D4 right?

The D300s replacement (D400?) would fit perfectly in that spot, in the 18-24MP range, to compete with 7DII ;)
I also expect D4 to be quite close to 1DX, in almost all areas.

If this is true, then Nikon are being very strange as well... This D800 will more or less kill off the D3x.  and The D4, which will presumably be presumably lower resolution to get better high ISO & frame rates for action shooters, is due for release first (Olympic year)? So maybe it's both Canon and Nikon that see no future for a large body, high resolution camera? Roll on the 5D MkIII at 300MP+!  :)

It will kill the D3x but not the D4, no, :) they will be in different leagues.

Erm... Sorry, I think a punctuation error slipped in there somewhere... and a typo! This was probably the the most poorly written post I have made so far, please accept my humble apologies. :-[

Third Party Manufacturers / Re: Nikon D800 Outed?
« on: November 20, 2011, 05:03:13 PM »
If this is true, then Nikon are being very strange as well... This D800 will more or less kill off the D3x and the D4, which will presumably be presumably lower resolution to get better high ISO & frame rates for action shooters, is due for release first (Olympic year)? So maybe it's both Canon and Nikon that see no future for a large body, high resolution camera? Roll on the 5D MkIII at 300MP+!  :)

EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 19, 2011, 07:15:11 PM »
BTW - NR now has the first pictures of the D800 posted (supposedly). 

EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 19, 2011, 07:11:13 PM »
Perhaps this is all part of a ploy by Canon and Nikon to increase the price point of their compact full frame bodies up into the $4000+ (>£2500) price band; i.e. no 1Ds/DXx replacement, they'll just up all the specifications of the 5D MkIII/D800 and charge more money for them ::)

EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 19, 2011, 05:58:04 PM »
Looks like we may get some idea of the 'competition' sooner than we thought: NR looks set to scoop some D800 images!

EOS Bodies / Re: 5Dii sensor recycled into new FF entry body?
« on: November 19, 2011, 05:44:32 PM »
Mindful also of the age of the 21mpx FF sensor, I'm of the view that the 18mpx FF sensor will be pushed into a cheaper body, but also that some photographers are also very keen to see a higher pixel count.  My current view is as follows...

1Dx - FF 18mpx Sports and photojournalist
5DIII - FF 35-40mpx studio / landscape camera - 2013 launch perhaps
7DII - APS-C 28-32mpx top end crop - 2013 launch perhaps
9D - FF entry level 18mpx - helps keep cost of 1Dx sensor down - early 2012 launch
70D - APS-C 28-32mpx prosmer small body - 2 year cycle 2012 launch
650D - APS-C stick with current 18mpx crop sensor, pushing up a few mpx with the 700D and so on
1100D as is now, 1200D drops on whichever sensor canon deems cheap to manufacture, 15mpx, perhaps even 18mpx
G1x APS-C mirror less solution using EF-S lenses - 2012 perhaps
G100x compact mirror less solution using bespoke EF-G lenses, 1/1.6" perhaps ? - 2013 perhaps
G1000x compact mirror less solution using fixed zoom lens
Partner with a phone manufacturer for Canon lens/sensor on a phone - 2012/2013 ?

I'm not sure if Canon could push the APS-C sensor to 28-32MP for two reasons:

1) The Sony APS-C sensor is already struggling with high ISO noise at 24MP and it's slightly larger
2) In marketing terms what would a 28-32MP sensor say about the 18MP sensor in the 1D X?

I think that sticking at 18MP but improving the noise performance and dynamic range might be a better option (and would fit better with Canon's current 'quality not quantity' megapixel marketing message).  Whether this will happen or not is another question; it might depend on how much traction the A77 gets and what Canon think that Nikon will do with the D400. 

I like your ideas with regard to the compact camera lineup, but I think that the 'G1X' name is a bit too close to Panasonic's GX1! As for your idea about Canon partnering with a 'phone manufacturer -spot on... In fact, I'd go further: they should buy a 'phone manufacturer.

EOS Bodies / Re: 5Dii sensor recycled into new FF entry body?
« on: November 19, 2011, 10:06:01 AM »
I was wondering if Canon would ever do such a thing or would the 1Dx sensor make more sense? Economies of scale already tells Canon to make the same APS-C sensor for every crop body, so why should the FF camp be the exception to the rule?

The FF camp is the exception to the rule because the number of sensors they get from each wafer is substantially smaller than the number of APS-C sensors. And that's just the raw numbers. Then you've got to allow for fabrication errors, meaning that you will never have a 100% yield.

So whilst the R&D for the sensor may evaporate over time, the actual manufacturing cost does not. Originally the machines they used to "print" the sensors on wafers (steppers) needed to do two passes for FF sensors but only one for APS-C (another source of increased manufacturing cost relative to APS-C.) I'm not sure if this has yet changed.

From Northlight Images (hope you don't mind Keith!) [http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/canon_medium_format_2ff.html]:

"2007 August 18th Canon can now make 35mm full frame chips in one step - and can make larger ones too - more info on the 50D page from a lengthy email we were sent.

    "Sensor technology - Canon have mentioned that full frame sensor chips need two stepper passes. Sony now has the technology to do this in one pass and are preparing their own sensors and selling to them Nikon.  However, Canon have a new 'one pass' technology too. What's more, it can do even larger than 35mm (36x24mm) in a single pass.
    Canon is very excited about a next generation CMOS sensors they are working on.  Two full frame versions have 40M and 50M pixels at the -same- noise level as the current 1D series. Low power supply voltages give cooler chips and lower noise even with smaller pixels. Different circuit fabrication techniques also promise to make close to 100% of the sensor area active pixels. This technology won't make any of the upcoming models, but is expected in 2009/10." "

Can't comment on whether this is true...

EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 19, 2011, 05:28:09 AM »
What market are we talking about here?  Is Canon really competing with Nikon or Sony at this level?  How many people jump into dSLR photography by buying a camera costing >$2K?  The 'competition' is in the P&S and entry-level dSLR arena.  At the higher levels, for the most part, buyers are already invested in a system. High profile 'defections' notwithstanding, there's a lot of inertia to changing brands when you have lenses, flashes, etc.  So, I contend that for a 5DIII, Canon's greatest need for differentiation is from their own lines, not Nikon/Sony/etc.  That's why the 5DII got the same AF as the 5D (given the alignment of release dates for 5DII and D700, Canon surely 'knew'.  That's why they had no problem eliminating f/8 AF from the 'awesome' AF system of the 1D X - no doubt they knew it would piss off a lot of current 1-series users, and they didn't care.  When they gift it back with a 1D X Mark II, the 'awesomer-ness' of the update will be another method of internal differentiation.

Put another way, Nikon has been offering more AF points in comparable bodies for years...and yet from 2007 to 2010, Canon went from 40% to 45% dSLR market share while Nikon fell from 41% to 30%.  Canon has no reason to change...so, they'll keep using AF for inter-line differentiation, and hobble the 5DIII's AF.

There's my organ grinding for the night...

I disagree that Canon are not competing with Nikon and Sony at this level, if that was the case then why on earth did Nikon bother to make the specifications of the D700 so good? They could have made themselves a higher margin by installing the 11 pt AF and metering systems from the DXX series.  Your right about inertia, owning many lenses and flashes for a system gives you a strong incentive to stay, but if your chosen brand keeps underperforming in key areas generation after generation then you will eventually consider switching (you're always saying how 'L' lenses hold their value).  If this were not the case then Nikon would still be the market leader for professionals and 'serious enthusiasts'. 

Nikon have been offering significantly more AF points on their 'below flagship' range for exactly one generation.  I don't think that it's safe for a company to extrapolate from three years of past data and use that as the basis of future strategy, especially when what is being measured is as coarse as overall DSLR sales.  Canon are really starting to look like they're no longer the best choice in the mid-market and now Nikon are starting to produce some very good entry level cameras (where I believe they have recently been weaker than Canon) and Sony are also fielding some interesting alternatives.  Actually, I hope that Canon do lose some market share, it might just stimulate them to do better...

EOS Bodies / Re: 5DIII will come
« on: November 18, 2011, 08:51:33 PM »
All this talk about AF systems again, so I'm sorry to grind on my personal favourite organ about this...

The 9 cross type AF system from the XXD line would have been acceptable on the 5D MkII, but Canon were either in a hurry, being cheap, or were genuinely taken by surprise by the D700's AF system.  The 5D MkII was redeemed by its sensor and its video capabilities.  The world has now moved on and Sony are in the full frame game as well; if Canon continue to cripple th 5D series, they will lose this section of the market to the competition.  Unless Nikon downgrades the D800's specifications from its predecessor (when was the last time that Nikon did this?) and Sony decides not to bother including the A77's technological advancements into a forthcoming FF SLT camera, the '5D with a new sensor' approach will fail.  If you're seriously looking to buy into this segment or upgrade your current 5D model, what would this strategy say to you: "buy a Canon, we're second best"?  This reflects down the whole product range, because consumers tend to look a level or two up the product line when they are purchasing to determine the brand's image. 

Canon must risk their 1D X sales by upping the specs of the 5D MkIII AF system, many people won't actually need it most of the time but that's not the point.  I live in the UK and my car (like most these days) has air conditioning, which is great for the few days a year I actually need it.  Try selling people anything other than a base model without A/C. 

Canon are competing in this market on a differentiation strategy, if their sensor isn't a lot better than the new Sony FF unit, what will Canon differentiate on? In my view, the 7D's AF system is the bare minimum for the 5D MkIII; let's not forget that the frame coverage of the AF points would be virtually the same as with the 5D MkII (just higher density).  If Canon are unwilling to go the whole hog and fit the new 61pt AF system to the 5D MkIII (and 7D MkII), they should develop a new AF system for these cameras; how about a 39 pt "low density reticular array".  ;)

EOS Bodies / Re: Announcements in January & February [CR2]
« on: November 18, 2011, 07:29:28 PM »
I think a formal announcement has to be made in order to qualify as vaporware.  Has Nikon said anything about the D800 yet?

I stand corrected.

I wouldn't be so confident about "knowing" what Canon is doing. I just watched a great presentation about Kodak (link can be found on another "rumors" site) and disruptive technology. I was struck by the parallels between what happened to film over the past 10-15 years and what is now happening to the camera market with cell phones.

I quite agree, not that I think that Canon are going to do anything too radical in 2012, they're far too big and conservative for that! All the camera makers (especially those without 'phone divisions) are desperately trying to figure out "what now" in the lower end of the market with cameraphones reaching the point where there will no longer be a market for seperate compact cameras .

Nikon's '1' system is an attempt to answer that question, but I'm struggling to see who they're trying to attract with that system because it's so expensive.  To be fair, who am I to question their decision, it's their money and they've obviously done the market research which must suggest that there are a lot of consumers who want a smaller interchangeable lens camera than either DSLRs or any of the previous 'compact system cameras' provided.
[Have we actually agreed an 'official' acronym for these cameras yet?!!!!]

Everyone's now waiting to see Canon's response; I'm not sure what we'll see -it could just be more (possibly smaller) 'Rebels'.  I think that this would be a mistake, not because I believe there is currently a huge market to be tapped for 'CSCs', but because I think that a lot of the technology incorporated in them is the future (for example: EVFs, on-chip phase detect AF); Canon needs to start getting more experience implementing these technologies in stills cameras.  The next Rebel may be the last of the old order as the whole of Canon's lower end line-up is starting to look a little under specified and compared to the competition. 

EOS Bodies / Re: Announcements in January & February [CR2]
« on: November 18, 2011, 02:33:27 PM »

I have also heard elsewhere that we won’t see anything DSLR related announced until March 2012.

So that would be the 650D then?   ;)

The last thing I was told, is we’d see a larger megapixel full frame camera available by the summer of 2012.

Hmm... Not specifically the 5D MkIII then... Could this mean that Canon are changing their minds and have decided to (or always intended to) produce a 1D Xs (or maybe a 1Ds X -for real Canon lovers!  ;D).  Or maybe they will split the 5D line...

Meanwhile there is great discuss on NR about the vapourware D800... Personally, I think that a lower megapixel D4 is more likely given the Olympics. 

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