Now here is something interesting. There is a major dealer in Germany (ac-foto.com) who gives a full refund on 5DIIâ€™s that will be bought right now, if Canon announces a 5DIII before 31st. of December. So when the company wouldn`t be sure, that there will be no announcement, I donâ€™t think they would offer that deal.
I wouldn't say they'd to be certain... it's a calculated risk to drive sales in the here and now. Does the fine print of that guarantee say the customer has to buy a 5D3 by a certain date to get the refund of the 5D2?
If so, they're being very clever and it might be it might be win win for them... if the 5D3 isn't announced they just made a sale If it does get announced, they'd take back the 5D2 and sell a 5D3 which would, at full introduction pricing, have a higher profit for the store than the current price of 5D2. They'd probably be able to sell 5D2 used for not much less than new and overall they make money in either scenario.