Tamron 70-300 VC
I think you'd be really disappointed with this lens on full-frame, especially one that has an awesome AF system. Its slow to focus and while the IQ is nice for crop (especially at its price), I don't think it'll hold up to full-frame. If you do go Set #1, I'd either trade the 70-300VC for the 70-200 F/4, and you can decide whether your macro lens or 70-200 lens needs IS more.
Your set 2 basically trades a wide portrait lens and IS for your macro for an awesome tele zoom...if you shoot more macro or wide portraits than you would portraits/action/etc, then it might not be worth the trade. Otherwise, Set 2 covers pretty much all of your needs.