« on: November 09, 2013, 11:13:29 AM »
Unfortunately, exact numbers are either not broken down in enough detail and/or all over the place, since press realeases and articles alike are obsure and/or poorly written.
The big picture is clear:
not buying much. Money is tight, they got smartüphones and most of the households got comapct cameras and often a low-end DSLR as well. Most consumers have smartened up sufficently to realize their DSLR+kit lens sit in the closet most of the time and their smartphones deliver good enough IQ. Market saturated - not only compacts, but also more-of the-same-and-only-marginally-better, iterative low-end DLSRs. All manufacturers similarly affected. Except for a few moving up into enthusiast segment, will generally not return to buy another dwarf-sensor compact or DSLRs in the future.
smartened up and come to realize those boxy-clunky mirrorslappers are nearing end of shelf live. Waiting for "the right"mirrorless camera at affordable price without having to sacrifice much in speed/performance (AF) and ergonomics (esp. OVF vs. EVF) compared to their current DSLRs. Ideally coming from their current manufacturer to increase chances, some lenses will continue to work quite well (via adapter) and not having to learn a new user interface. They are sitting on the fence and also don't buy as many lenses since future of systems is open.
Sony's A7/R are just about "attractive enough" to capture some in that group. Or may settle for mfT or Fuji X camera. Will start buying FF mirrorless, once really good sub USD/€ 2000 offerings come. And then also replace their lens parks over time to native mirrorless lenses with shorter flange distance. Whoever of the 3 - Canon, Nikon, Sony gets there first, will take market leadership.
economy is tight. Minimize capex. Overall very conservative market segment. Will buy what is absolutely needed from CaNikon. Old farts and those shooting long lenses / fast action will stick with DSLRs for at least 2 more rounds [5D Mk. V and Nikon D6 likely to be "final models"]. Will eventually also move to mirrorless, but over a longer period of time ... 5 years+
Canon and Nikon are looking at a quickly closing "launch window" for mirrorless FF. If they don't get it done in 2014, they'll be really really hard hit. Nikon will go under first. But Canon is not safe either, if they bungle it.