Messages

1

EOS Bodies / Re: Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?

« on: December 28, 2011, 12:20:11 PM »

Distant.star - thanks for your reply. I am not new here, just new as a person who makes a post. The point of my post was as I have mentioned not to be a contrarian, but to sort the wheat for the chaf, in isolating what exactly points to a 2012 release beyond an absolute confirmation from canon. This is classic intelligence analysis, a process where the information is tested against rules of logic to ascertain the very likely from the wishful thinking and conjecture.

What makes me doubt that 2012 is the date beyond reasonable doubt is as mentioned previously, by trying to falsify the hypothesis (a standard critical thinking and analysis task), simply asking the question "what else must be true" another way of testing the rumour (I spell it the uk way, by the way...) is to ask "what can't be true". When applying this not unreasonable test against the belief that 2012 is the date beyond reasonable doubt, it fails.

This does not mean that a 5d2 wont be out n' about in 2012, it simply means that 2013 could easily be the year of release.

For those debating with themselves over should I buy or should I wait, a very possible 2013 date can make all the difference between buying a 5d2 now or risking being without this type of camera for possibly another 2 years.

Personally I dont see any reason why a 2013 date isn't likely, the primary motivator for canon would be a d800 which would close all betting, but until then........

2

United Kingdom & Ireland / Re: Best place to buy photographic equipment in the uk?

« on: December 28, 2011, 11:06:25 AM »

Hdew are great, prices are unbeatable £1425 for a 5d2, £655 for a 24-105. Hong kong imports with duty paid, but you can visit them at their Surrey office and pick up in person before you have paid.

I highly recommend them.

3

Software & Accessories / Lightroom speed up tips

« on: December 28, 2011, 10:58:10 AM »

Anybody got any? Main issue for me is the 'loading' delay when zooming in on pictures.

4

EOS Bodies / Re: Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?

« on: December 28, 2011, 10:17:39 AM »

Axilrod, no offence, but like I said confirmation bias, I never said it was a 2013 release date, I said I don't know. You have interpreted my response to your own pre-existing beliefs and ignored anything that didn't fit that.

My post was not an attempt at being a contrarian, it was simply an exploration of why people take conjecture as fact. More an exploration of critical thinking of the Internet than anything else.

Critical thinking to separate fact from fiction is not a problem is it, especially on a rumours site?

5

EOS Bodies / Re: Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?

« on: December 28, 2011, 09:11:22 AM »

Handsomerob - I think you make some good points, however I think the only real one that would force a 2012 date is a d800 for obvious reasons. The reason I am skeptical is that there is zero proof of a 2012 release date, not a jot. The question was more of an attempt to explore people's reasoning rather than anything else.

If the hypothesis of a 2012 date is true, what else must be true:
- d800 will definently be released in 2012 or
- 5d2 is selling very poorly or
- canon have publically committed to a 2012 release date

None of these have happened.

The price drop tends to elicit confirmation bias, a price drop in itself signifies nothing, it could be a sign of a price drop but then it could not, but people tend to only see what they want and expect to see and don't try and disprove their beliefs, in this case 'have canon dropped the 5d2 price before without a 5d3 release?', yes they have. As such unfortunately a price drop in the 5d2 suggests nothing.

The 5d3 rumours seem a very similar (just more drawn out) version of the iPhone 5 rumours of 2011; The more something is repeated the more truth is imputed to it, despite a lack of credibility of the source(s).

Personally I take the honest route about this in that "I don't know when it will be released".

6

EOS Bodies / Why are people so sure that a 5d3 will be realised in 2012?

« on: December 28, 2011, 07:46:46 AM »

Imo, Internet rumours have a unique ability to fire up confirmation bias with rocket fuel to turn conjecture into 'fact'.

Anybody else have doubts about a 2012 5d3? I mean there is no reason not for a 2013 date.