« on: November 07, 2014, 05:34:44 PM »
I spoke with 2 more Canon shooters on the west coast today (5D2 & 5D3) who have both decided to dump their Canon gear and jump over to Nikon D750's. One of them (like myself) had tried a Sony a7R for a while and was also unhappy with all of the compromises that came along with that.
While not a mass exodus of all types of shooters, there is without doubt an exodus from Canon (most commonly to Nikon) because Canon has pretty much stagnated in the Full Frame DSLR space for pretty close to 3 years now. If choosing a competitors sensor would help them to get back in the game, that would not in and of itself be a bad thing.
80% of the photographers I know who 2 years ago were shooting Canon have already given up on Canon and moved on. Every one of these folks were shooting full frame and most with multiple bodies and a huge investment in L Series Glass. They were all ready to move their capabilities forward and Canon simply had nothing to offer and they lost the sense that there was actually anything real on the horizon. These are the type of folks that were pre-ordering things like 5D3 the day it was announced. Canon has lost all of them and they are not coming back any time soon. The longer this exodus continues, the less demand there will be for full-frame Canon gear in the future if they ever do introduce something.
You can come up with scenarios and photographer types with this isn't happening like sports and I'll agree with you. However there is an exodus happening of people who can afford the transition (and some for whom it's a challenge) and it's not going to stop any time soon unless Canon actually releases something that interests these folks.
I think there are some market share losses, but in my experience, I still see way more Canon than anything else. I shoot at a lot of press events for big companies and a lot of trade shows, and Canon easily accounts for two-thirds, if not closer to three-quarters, of the cameras I see overall. It varies by event, of course, but out of dozens in the last couple years, I can't recall any event in which Canons weren't at least half the field.
What's very interesting to me is this-- the video scene at these events is still dominated by Canon. I've noticed a few internal PR teams have switched to Nikon gear, and last year at CES, Black Magic cameras had a small but noticeable presence. As someone who will be fairly outraged if the 5D Mark IV (or some other 2015 $2000 - $4000 Canon DSLR) doesn't have a great 1080p implementation and a decent internal 4K implementation, I find Canon's resilience in this market interesting. I used to see more Sonys (e.g. FS100s) among the people who weren't using Canon DSLRs for video; now, I see more C100 and C300 bodies in this group. That said, most of the Canon bodies I see are at least a few years old-- i.e. lots of 5D Mark IIIs, some C100s, even a few t3is and 60Ds. Not seeing any 70Ds yet and it's still too early to have expected a 7D Mark II sighting-- but the reason I bring up the prevalence of older models is this: When I do see photo/video combos that aren't Canon, they're usually micro four thirds, not Sony. This is all anecdotal, of course-- but since we're talking about demographics in which Canon is retaining users, I thought I'd add another set of observations.