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Messages - x-vision

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286
EOS Bodies / Re: February & March are Announcement Months for Canon [CR2]
« on: November 17, 2012, 02:29:39 PM »
What does it mean "the sensor is currently in EOS 1DX" ??

It means that the 40+ mp sensor is put in a 1DX body for testing.
However, the expectation is that the body will be different when the high-MP camera becomes an actual product.

P.S. These are all rumors, of course.

287
EOS Bodies / Re: A Brief 2013 Canon Roadmap [CR1]
« on: November 13, 2012, 10:51:12 PM »
In some ways, Canon is like Intel... Nikon like AMD... AMD once beat Intel to the 1Ghz mark, caught it napping, because Intel was both arrogant and lazy... but then it came back with a Bang and AMD is still playing catch up after a decade...

Err, you are forgetting that Nikon used to be the 800 pound gorilla in the industry, not Canon.
So, according to your analogy, Nikon is now coming back to raclaim their leading position.

Quote
Nikon is already feeling the pressure and competatively pricing it's products trying to get back market share...

Again, incorrect.

Recently, Canon has been (grossly?) overpricing their products - in what looks like a misguided attempt to position themselves as the Apple of the camera industry (or something like that).

To see the results of this overpricing strategy, though, just look into the last quarterly results from Canon and Nikon.

Last quarter, Canon's DSLR sales were down compared to 2011.
Canon also lowered their outlook for the year ... for a second time this year.

In comparison, Nikon's DSLR sales were up compared to 2011.
Nikon also revised their yearly projections ... upwards.

FYI, Canon projects sales of 8.8 million DSLR units in 2012 vs 7.1 million for Nikon.
If the last quarter becomes a trend, it won't take too many quarters before Nikon passes Canon as the industry leader.

So, expect Canon's overpricing strategy to be abandoned sometime next year - after they have had two-three more quarters like the last one.

288
EOS Bodies / Re: Where the heck is the 70D or 7D mkII?
« on: November 09, 2012, 05:44:44 PM »
They've telegraphed the big MP FF (to keep people from jumping to Nikon I suppose) ...

Canon hasn't telegraphed anything.

The 46mp figure is derived by scaling the resolution of the 7D/60D sensor to FF:
  • 18mp * 1.6 * 1.6 = 46.08mp

Not sure who thought that this was a good idea but it looks like wishful thinking to me.

40mp would be much more palatable, for example.
A 40mp sensor will be able to achieve UHD video resolution (3840 × 2160) with 2x2 pixel binning.
Canon is already doing 2x2 pixel binning on the 5DIII for HD video (hence the magic number 22mp).
And it would only make sense if they do the exact same thing on a high-MP camera.
This would require a 40mp sensor, though, not a 46mp sensor.
So, 40mp is actually more likely than 46mp for the high-MP camera.

The 46mp figure is not only not telegraphed by Canon but it's also a very weak [CR0] rumor.

289
EOS Bodies / Re: Canon EOS 7D Mark II Rumors Surface [CR1]
« on: November 09, 2012, 03:35:40 AM »
I think we’ll see the APS-C market slow down a bit, now that the D600 and EOS 6D are changing the pricing structure for consumer camera bodies.

This is a puzzling thought. It suggests a consumer who wants to try a DSLR first buys into a Rebel under $1K, and then when he wants to be better, he has two choices:

1. Get a 7D2 at over $2K. There is nothing (xxD) in between, and the 7D2 may be all wrong for him given its intended purposes.

2. Go FF with a 6D at over $2K.

Seems to me that leaves a HUGE soft spot between $1K and $2K.

The gap between $1K and $2K is shaping up as a dead zone for the time being.
Nikon has it too, btw.

The reason seems to be that consumers do not want to spend more than ~$1K on a camera.
And pros and enthusiasts seem to demand higher specs & performance, which manufacturers cannot meet cost-effectively with sub-$2K models.

At the end, cameras in the $1K-$2K range end up being unattractive to all groups of buyers - expensive for consumers and yet not good enough for pros and many enthusiasts.

Looking forward, it seems likely to me that Canon will raise the price of the 7DII to around $2K, while keeping the 70D price at around $1K.
For these prices to work, though, Canon needs to put a high-performance (crop) sensor in the 7DII.

Otherwise, the 7DII image quality will be perceived as substandard and the 7DII will fall into the dead zone, where the it’s unattractive to most buyers.

290
Lenses / Re: 24-70 F/4L IS - Why I will Buy/Not Buy this lens.
« on: November 06, 2012, 06:56:02 PM »
I'd like to move to FF and the 6D + 24-70/4L combo is very appealing because of its compact size and high image quality.

But this combo needs to sell for less than $3000 for me to consider it.
It also needs to have a more advanced AF system - not the prehistoric AF on the current 6D.

So, it seems that until the new 24-70/4L gets cheaper and until the 6D gets updated with a better AF, Canon won't have my money.

Your move, Canon  8).

291
EOS Bodies / Re: [Poll] Canon Reign Supreme Again?
« on: November 03, 2012, 06:08:56 PM »
After EOS 1DX's trashing of D4 and 5D Mark III's victory over D800, will 6D destroy D600 for a complete FF sweep?

Hmm. I had to chuckle when I read this.

When the actual (not rumored) DxO scores for the 1DX came out, it turned out that the D4 has a better sensor after all.
Both the D800 and D600 have better sensors than the 5DIII as well.

So, not seeing how Canon is trashing Nikon. It's actually the opposite.

Also, the quarterly results for the last quarter show that Nikon's sales are up, while Canon's sales are down.
Again, how is Canon trashing Nikon when Nikon is gaining market share and Canon is losing???

I'm a Canon shooter, who has spent thousands of $$$ on Canon gear.
I find Canon's recent products very disappointing, since they are either underspec'd or overpriced ... or both.

So, at this time I'm actually very glad that Nikon is trashing Canon.
Maybe someone at Canon's headquarters will finally take notice.

292
Third Party Manufacturers / Re: New RED One Price
« on: November 02, 2012, 05:50:52 PM »
RED is very quick in responding to Sony's latest announcements.

293
EOS Bodies / Re: Where the heck is the 70D or 7D mkII?
« on: October 31, 2012, 02:21:46 PM »
Before the 6D announcement, I was of the opinion that the 7D series was done.
But considering the 6D specs, I now think the opposite. 

Most likely we'll see a 7DII in the spring of next year and a 70D in the fall, IMO.

Interesting to speculate what the 7DII and 70D will offer.
It appears that Canon's strategy is to have the 7DII and the 6D as different upgrade paths for Rebel/60D/70D owners.
But if the 6D is positioned as an (appealing) upgrade option for a 70D owner, then the 70D will have to remain more or less the same as the 60D. In fact, Canon might decide to further Rebelize the 70D.

The 7DII has more room for upgrades in terms of features.

Of course both the 7DII and the 70D will get new sensors plus Digic 5(+) processors.
We'll see.


294
EOS Bodies / Re: Canon to start using 0.18um (180nm) process for FF?
« on: October 30, 2012, 10:21:43 PM »
And Sony is only the third largest manufacturer (at 18% total market revenue), Both Samsung and Omnivision are larger than Sony.
Hmm, you are quite incorrect, actually. 

Sony is the industry leader with $2.6B in revenue for 2011.
Somewhat surprisingly, second is ... Canon, with $874M in revenue for 2011 (3x smaller than Sony).



Source: Image Sensors World.

Also, as I said already, Canon has had a 180nm process in house since at least 2007.
See the White Paper on their 52mp prototype, which they developed in 2007.
Scroll to page 3 of the White Paper, where the sensor technology is listed as 180nm.

Finally, as I've also said already, the S100/S100 sensor is made on 180nm.
This sensor has been in production for a year now.

Overall, Canon has been working on a 180nm process for at least five years now and has had in production for at least a year.

We can only speculate why this process has not been used for DSLR sensors ... yet.
Probably they are working on the yields - or they are just milking their 500nm process as much as possible.

I feel that the time for change has come, though.
Canon has not had a new APS-C sensor for three years now (since the current 18mp sensor was introduced back in 2009).
For comparison, between 2004 and 2009, they've had a new APS-C sensor basically every year.

This 3-year 'silence' indicates to me that a major change is coming.
Likely the transition from 500nm to 180nm; we'll know for sure next year.

Something else to consider:
Canon entered the high-end video market just last year with the Cxxx series.
Sony, RED, and Arri are the incumbents in this market.

If Canon thinks that they can compete with a 500nm process in the brewing 4K/8K video resolution wars, they are complete idiots.
Or, more likely, they know very well what's coming - and feel that they can compete. 
Certainly not with a prehistoric 500nm process, of course.

Check out the lasted video cams from Sony, btw. This is getting quite serious. 


295
Lenses / Re: Canon EF 24-70 f/4L IS Coming [CR3]
« on: October 30, 2012, 04:48:25 PM »
either this lens is like 800USD MSRP or its DOA.

More like $900 but in principle you are correct.

If priced above $1K, this rumored lens will have the same fate as the 24/28 IS - sitting on the shelves until it gets discounted.

296
Lenses / Re: Canon EF 24-70 f/4L IS Coming [CR3]
« on: October 30, 2012, 04:08:39 PM »
24-70mm f/4L IS?

WTF?  Just.....WTF?!?

Two words: compact size.

The 24-105L is smaller than the 24-70L but it's still not a compact lens.

Canon needs a smaller (and cheaper?) kit lens for the smallish 6D. 
A compact, high quality 24-70mm f/4L IS would be a very good fit.

Depending on price, I'd be very interested in such a lens - and potentially the 6D too.

297
EOS Bodies / Re: Canon 5D Mark III - Price Drop Details
« on: October 29, 2012, 04:11:26 PM »
Here are my predictions:

$2999 this Christmas
...

i don't think this can happen.  ...

i don't think you'll see this camera sell for less than 3k until the mark iv comes out.

Well, it happened already ... just seven months after the 5DIII was introduced.

(And I was spot on, btw    ;D 8) ).

298
EOS Bodies / Re: DxOMark Sensor Performance: Nikon vs. Canon
« on: October 28, 2012, 02:15:04 PM »
The next major innovation from Sony is to combine the image processing logic with the sensor die using a "3D" layered die attachment process. That won't really revolutionize IQ ...

Maybe not revolutionize but will constitute the next major step in performance.

The big thing about the stacked/3D design is that the circuitry layer can be made ... cheaply ... on a state-of-the-art chipmaking process (say 45nm).
This will allow the integration of sophisticated on-sensor signal processing (per-pixel ADCs, dual conversion gain, etc.) - and in turn better overall sensor performance, which might prove impossible to match by a 'standard' sensor.

So, the stacked/3D design has a lot of promise, actually.
And unlike current BSI techologies, it will be much more cost-effective to scale to DSLR sensors.

299
EOS Bodies / Re: Canon to start using 0.18um (180nm) process for FF?
« on: October 28, 2012, 01:10:38 PM »

There are two ways we might see a new 180nm sensor first - either in an APS-C format, where the production yields are higher, and as a result the cost per sensor is more palatable on a new fab, or in a high end high resolution FF body where a high cost per sensor can be absorbed through the premium price of the product.

My thoughts exactly.

FYI, the 180nm sensor mentioned in the Chipworks article is the S100/S110 sensor.
This sensor has been on the market for about a year now (the S100 was announced in September 2011).

So, Canon't 180nm sensor technology is in production already; it's not some R&D project.
The question is, when are they going to scale this process to DSLR sensors.

Indeed, because of yields, it makes the most sense to first implement it in a premium APS-C model (7DII?).
But Canon is not known for doing things that make much sense (6D anyone  ::)). So, who knows.

OTOH, after the disappointing sales numbers from last quarter, Canon is surely under pressure to show improved sales.
This bodes very well for bringing the (pending) 180nm DSLR sensors to market ASAP.

300
EOS Bodies / Re: Looks like the 6D may not be so bad after all
« on: October 11, 2012, 11:55:08 AM »
It looks like noone wants my money unless I give them ALL of it.   

I think you nailed it.

Between an overpriced 5DIII and an underspec'd 6D, I'm choosing ... to spend on neither.

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