ok, thoughts...first off, best buy isn't in the market of selling pro or semi pro gear, so what some random sales clerk says is the last things I'd trust in regards to the future of a semi-ro/pro product line.
What I love most about this is the predictability of all the responses.
In a nutshell,
Some say this means the 5d3 will be out like tomorrow ---well, not if they have 2.5 years of stock left! If they have 2.5 years of stock left, then when will the 5d4 come out ---- in about 2.25 years! I highly doubt that.
now for all the sidebar stuff.
1dx2 before the 5d4? What are you guys smoking? Looking at the last cycle - the 1dx was announced in october of 2011 - released in march of 2012 but wasn't shipping until June. the 5d3 was announced in March of 2012 and available shortly after being announced. I would think the next cycle of updates will follow that same pattern - announce the flagship but don't release for a long time. then announce the 5d4 and have it be available shortly after the announcement.
then the gloom and doom report, and the failed idea that canon needs to do anything for more than bragging rights ---- the market decline is not because it has no good products on it (if this were the case then I'd think nikon and sony would be holding steady, but they are losing ground) - the market is declining for a bunch of reasons - because it's hit a saturation point, also because the technology has matured, because we are in a global recession and disposable income isn't as readily available, and yes, because the market has changed. the soccer moms don't give a rats ass about DR or low ISO IQ - and they are the ones buying consumer grade cameras en mass. If sales are slipping for that market segment it has less to do with real features and more to do with how it's marketed and the actual demand for the product.
"Sales are declining so the challenge is to sell more units."
This is true - but - this is more of a challenge for the marketing/advertising department. R&D is expensive, if sales are declining and the market is shrinking (this has happened even with the release of the A7, A7r, A7s, d4x, d810, and d610). Has any of the 6 bodies listed there jump started So-nikon-y's sales? their #'s are still just as down as Canon's.
That don't bode well for the idea that the dumping a ton of $$$$ into R&D to put a body that has better specs on the market will be the solution to the problem of "Sales are declining so the challenge is to sell more units."
And, this one I gotta just direct quote -
So in order to keep sales up..
- Nikon churns through models
- Sony reinvents the camera
- Canon does nothing except take consolation in knowing it sells more units than Nikon/Sony and just watches sales decline?
Irrespective of whether or not Nikon/Sony have better or worse technology their activity keeps their models current and in the mind of consumers. Shorter product life cycles means that they can react quicker too.
Whether people like it or not, based on past releases, it is safe to expect the 5D4 out next year and not 2016/2017.
Ok, yes - nikon churns out models - I call that the - "lets piss off all those that bought d4's and d800's by launching new models with slightly improved specs and fixes to bugs in the original model approach. did it help? Not in droves because most buyers of either body aren't rushing to purchase because their d4's and d800's still have such low shutter counts - 4k or 5.5K is a lot of $$$ to spend on a marginal upgrade...
Sony reinvents the camera..... wow...hyperbole maybe a little....just a wee bit?
Yes, they are the first to put a FF sensor in a mirrorless body, but come on, this does not reinvent the camera!
Then there's this - "Canon does nothing except take consolation in knowing it sells more units than Nikon/Sony and just watches sales decline?" Well, you said it yourself, they sold more units than sony. All of those things that sony and nikon are doing isn't helping ---- Honestly I wish it was because that would mean that the economy is rebounding and the market is shifting back to quality over quantity. A strong nikon and sony leads to a stronger canon (and vice versa).
"Irrespective of whether or not Nikon/Sony have better or worse technology their activity keeps their models current and in the mind of consumers. Shorter product life cycles means that they can react quicker too."
WOW...I kind of already stated how I feel about that.. . but... really short product life cycles on items with high price tags don't go over well. Save the short upgrade cycles for the sub 1K market, as incremental upgrades can be more easily glossed over with big advertising and crafty marketing.
Given all the above there though, canons conservative pragmatic approach is really wise considering the market climate.