I keep coming back to a certain point as it seems to be the touchstone for any company that tries to sell into the consumer marketplace.
As markets change, companies that can't keep up will experience falling revenues and may, in extreme cases, be forced to close it's doors.
Consumer desires can be fickle. What sells one moment may not be the thing that sells the next.
When we first landed in Europe I saw a lot of tourists running around with pretty high-end Canon DSLR gear strapped around their necks, but no longer is this the case. That was three years ago. What I see these days are a LOT of mirrorless (Sony APS-C, Oly, Pana, some Fuji) and a few high end Sony RX1 and the occasional Leica (of all things). But more than ANY of this, I see where cell phones and tablets have taken over for most of the tourist's imaging "needs."
For the pro-level shoots (commercial, weddings, fashion - well LOTS of fashion as this _is_ the place afterall) I see almost 100 percent Canon pro-gear. Though I have to add that the most serious fashion stuff I see being shot around town is with Fuji-blads.
For pro-level video I see LOTS of Canon 5D MkII/MkIII. Even in-studio stuff here in France where they pan back to show an overall scene.
Based on these kinds of "on the street" observations I think Canon has the portable pro-level video market sewn up. I can imagine them continuing to invest in that area.
Canon seems to still have a strong part of the tourist DSLR (Rebel) market, but is very quickly loosing to cell phones and mirrorless. I can imagine Canon continuing to sell whatever they can into that space, but for further R&D? I don't see it.
For published fashion work I can see Fuji-blad will remain _the_ "go-to" system.
For sports and wildlife photography I can see where Canon could remain strong, but how much gear can they actually sell into a market that's likely already saturated? If the new 100-400L development cycle is any indication, we may see the existing gear in the stores for a long time to come.
Your observations match mine. I think Canon managed to capture the emergent DSLR-video market at exactly the right time and got a lot of mind share because of it, just as they did a few years earlier when they were beating Nikon with image quality on their DSLRs. Nikon has since caught up but the emergent market has since moved past both Canon AND Nikon to mirrorless.
The thing is that Canon is now failing to capture people "stepping up" into real cameras
. Thus it may be that the wave of Canon owners has surged and is now a swell moving towards shore.
Of note is how quickly this change has come about - in less than five years. So whilst Sony may be bleeding lots of money and having trouble turning a profit, it is chasing new users and consumers (and the next wave) whereas Canon seems to be content riding the wave that is already on, regardless of where it is heading.