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Messages - Bob Howland

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1
EOS Bodies / Re: EOS 5D Mark III Replacement Talk [CR2]
« on: January 27, 2015, 12:27:19 PM »
If they release it in time for the Victoria's Secret Fashion Show, they could take the opportunity to rename the camera model entirely - they're running out of new numbers and can't slap an infinite number of "Mark *" on them. It would be suitable to release a DD camera. Perfect for those who shoot that event to lay their hands on a couple of double D's... ;)

Isn't that why many guys are into fashion photography? :D :D :D

From what I've heard, a lot of fashion photographers are gay. The models don't like constantly being hit on by the assistants, so the assistants who are hired tend to be gay. Experienced fashion photographic assistants are more likely to become fashion photographers.

The photographer who told me this, who is gay and an occasional fashion photographer, referred to fashion models as "professional teases".

2
EOS Bodies / Re: Big Announcements Coming Next Week [CR3]
« on: January 27, 2015, 12:15:49 PM »
I like the idea of a compact mirrorless system for all the other times I'm doing something non photography dedicated, but want to be able to capture shots, moments, experiences as they present themselves.

+1. After buying my 5D3, my G10 no longer is good enough for that purpose, especially above ISO400. I've taken to using my 5D3 with the battery pack removed (Try that with a 1Dx.), latest model 28-300 Tamron zoom and 270EX, but that's still too heavy.

3
EOS Bodies / Re: Big Announcements Coming Next Week [CR3]
« on: January 27, 2015, 10:04:56 AM »
The M3 could be interesting for me, depends on the specs.   Possibly the 11-24/4 at some point, too.

To me, M3 needs decent AF speed, EVF and of course few more  native small primes.

The MOST important factor for Canon to gain ground in mirrorless world is EF adapter to mirrorless. If they can come up with adapter with decent AF speed, better than current ones on the market, I think that will give Sony, Fuji etc... good run.
You want primes, the next poster wants an 18-200, presumably native, and I'd like a tiny native 15-85. Which do you think is going to come first? I'm not sure but my guess is the primes come last. In the age of extremely high quality zooms, prime lenses are so esoteric that they are positively elitist.

I agree that an EF-to-M adaptor plus a speed booster are essential. Otherwise, Canon can't leverage their large lens lineups and, if MILCs replace DSLRs in the next 5 years or so, Canon will find themselves years behind Sony, Fuji, Panasonic, Olympus and Samsung. Canon can't afford to take that risk.

4
EOS Bodies / Re: EOS 5D Mark III Replacement Talk [CR2]
« on: January 20, 2015, 01:15:40 PM »
I don't expect them to take place until the competition makes significant and consistent market gains against Canon. It's a mistake to think of the DSLR business as anything other than a business.

I'll agree with the second sentence but not the first. After all, isn't it better to make the changes before losing market share rather than after? Mismanaging major technological transitions drove Kodak into bankruptcy.

The managements of Olympus, Panasonic, Sony, Fuji and Samsung all decided, more or less simultaneously, that the case for MILCs over DSLRs was compelling enough to make major investments to overcome serious barriers to entry, the biggest of which seems to be getting stores to carry not-Canon/not-Nikon cameras so that consumers can look at them and buy them. It very much remains to be seen whether Canon and Nikon can leverage their installed base and very extensive DSLR lens lineups in the transition to MILCs.

The biggest of which seem to be getting people to actually buy MILCs instead of DSLRs... ;)

If there was sufficient market demand, stores would stock them.

How does the market demand products if many/most of the people in that market may not even know they exist? Furthermore, stores stocking more not-Canon/Not-Nikon cameras means (1) they have to reduce the stocking levels of Canon and/or Nikon and/or (2) they have to stop stocking something completely unrelated (i.e., expand the sizes of their photographic departments) and/or (3) they have to expand the size of their stores.
B&H are now carrying Yongnuo products.  How many people know about or have heard of Yongnuo.  Yet B&H are stocking them. Why? Because they think they can sell them. Why aren't they stocking more MILCs? Answer please...
First, B&H already carries just about every MILC made. Second, most photographic non-gearheads outside of New York City (at least the ones that I know) have never heard of B&H. However, I do know of two people who bought their Rebels at Sam's Club. Another acquaintance bought his at Best Buy. We're not talking about highly educated consumers here, but their money is just as good as yours or mine.

5
EOS Bodies / Re: 2015 wishlist
« on: January 12, 2015, 06:18:57 PM »
1. An M3 similar to but better than the Sony A6000, with a built-in EVF and a hot shoe. (I'd never use an inboard flash.)

2. A tiny but optically-superb 15-85 f/3.5-5.6 M-mount lens.

3. A Canon response to the Metabones Speed booster, except EF-to-M mount and 1-1/3 stops instead of 1 stop. The optical quality I want it to have is probably going to be expensive, maybe very expensive.

6
EOS Bodies / Re: EOS 5D Mark III Replacement Talk [CR2]
« on: January 10, 2015, 07:41:00 PM »
It very much remains to be seen whether Canon and Nikon can leverage their installed base and very extensive DSLR lens lineups in the transition to MILCs.

Given the global market penetrance of MILCs (or rather, the lack thereof), the first question is not whether they can, but whether they should… 

Lots of people like to talk and write the about death of dSLRs due to the rise of MILCs.  However, that rise is certainly not taking place with a slope consistent killing dSLRs, and it's important to keep in mind the same people saying these things now predicted that demise of the dSLR was to have occurred by ~5 years ago.

I repeat (for about the 100th time) no one knows if MILCs are a leading-edge or trailing-edge product. Too many people assume that just because they have been popular in some Asian markets, that means that they are the wave of the future. But, that is not necessarily the case.

It is equally likely that in the Chinese market at least (which is the market that probably counts the most), the early adoption of MILCs is simply a predecessor to the eventual adoption of DSLRs. Once Chinese customers become familiar with the relative benefits of DSLRs vs. MILCs, they may make the same decision that most customers in Europe and the Americas have made: the traditional DSLR is far more flexible and better suited for many enthusiasts.

Please stop using the "leading-edge" and "trailing-edge" terminology because that's not what you're talking about. Those terms have meaning only with respect to a product or group of products with respect to their own life cycle.

Actually I believe that MILCs are or at least very soon will be superior to DSLRs because (1) they will be cheaper to produce than DSLRs due to the removal of the mirror, (2) they will have much higher frame rates than DSLRs, also due to the removal of the mirror (e.g., Samsung NX-1 vs Canon 1Dx and Nikon D4s) and (3) they are now smaller, lighter and much quieter than DSLRs also due the removal of the mirror. Are you sensing a trend about the mirror??? The critical questions are (1) how good EVFs can become, (2) how fast they can be improved and (3) how much they will cost when they are at least as good as an OVF.

Clearly we will have to agree to disagree in our predictions about these last three questions.

7
EOS Bodies / Re: EOS 5D Mark III Replacement Talk [CR2]
« on: January 10, 2015, 07:22:06 PM »
I don't expect them to take place until the competition makes significant and consistent market gains against Canon. It's a mistake to think of the DSLR business as anything other than a business.

I'll agree with the second sentence but not the first. After all, isn't it better to make the changes before losing market share rather than after? Mismanaging major technological transitions drove Kodak into bankruptcy.

The managements of Olympus, Panasonic, Sony, Fuji and Samsung all decided, more or less simultaneously, that the case for MILCs over DSLRs was compelling enough to make major investments to overcome serious barriers to entry, the biggest of which seems to be getting stores to carry not-Canon/not-Nikon cameras so that consumers can look at them and buy them. It very much remains to be seen whether Canon and Nikon can leverage their installed base and very extensive DSLR lens lineups in the transition to MILCs.

The biggest of which seem to be getting people to actually buy MILCs instead of DSLRs... ;)

If there was sufficient market demand, stores would stock them.

How does the market demand products if many/most of the people in that market may not even know they exist? Furthermore, stores stocking more not-Canon/Not-Nikon cameras means (1) they have to reduce the stocking levels of Canon and/or Nikon and/or (2) they have to stop stocking something completely unrelated (i.e., expand the sizes of their photographic departments) and/or (3) they have to expand the size of their stores.

8
EOS Bodies / Re: EOS 5D Mark III Replacement Talk [CR2]
« on: January 09, 2015, 04:43:34 PM »
I don't expect them to take place until the competition makes significant and consistent market gains against Canon. It's a mistake to think of the DSLR business as anything other than a business.

I'll agree with the second sentence but not the first. After all, isn't it better to make the changes before losing market share rather than after? Mismanaging major technological transitions drove Kodak into bankruptcy.

The managements of Olympus, Panasonic, Sony, Fuji and Samsung all decided, more or less simultaneously, that the case for MILCs over DSLRs was compelling enough to make major investments to overcome serious barriers to entry, the biggest of which seems to be getting stores to carry not-Canon/not-Nikon cameras so that consumers can look at them and buy them. It very much remains to be seen whether Canon and Nikon can leverage their installed base and very extensive DSLR lens lineups in the transition to MILCs.

9
EOS Bodies / Re: Expect Higher End Products at CP+ in February
« on: January 07, 2015, 10:45:14 AM »
dSLRs continue to outsell MILCs by a wide margin?  Based on published sales data, it's quite probable that sales of Canon Rebel/xxxD dSLRs exceed those of all MILCs on the market from all brands combined. 

And how much of the dSLR sales advantage is due to sheer inertia? There are an awful lot of legacy Nikon and Canon lenses out there. Largely ignoring the MILC market certainly works as a short term strategy but I question its viability over the long haul, >3-5 years.

Sales numbers and public statements from Canon and Nikon are consistent with entry-level bodies with kit lenses, suggesting that legacy lenses might not be a huge factor.  OTOH, the inertia of public perception (i.e., dSLRs are the higher end product, particularly in North America) may be a big factor.

Canon and Nikon haven't totally ignored the MILC market, but both of their initial forays (EOS M, Nikon 1) were basically flops as far as global sales.  I don't know that Sony/Fuji/Oly/Samsung will change that, but Canon and/or Nikon jumping in with both feet could change the significant dSLR sales lead.  By that I mean multiple levels of bodies including FF offerings, a robust collection of format-specific lenses (no adapter needed), etc., basically an ecosystem like their dSLR lines.  We'll likely see things heading that direction someday, but given current market shares it doesn't seem in Canon's or Nikon's best interests.

I think the Samsung NX1 is potentially a "game-changer". (Sorry, but I hate that expression.) How are Canon and Nikon going to respond if Samsung introduces an NX1-derivative that has 16MP and a revised/refined user interface and does 25 full resolution frames per second, but loses a stop in high-ISO image quality, compared to the 1Dx and D4s, due to its smaller sensor size? Such a camera may happen later this year.

Most likely, Canon and Nikon won't see any need to respond to what amounts to a niche product with a very limited native lens collection.

"Barriers to Entry"

10
EOS Bodies / Re: Expect Higher End Products at CP+ in February
« on: January 07, 2015, 10:36:27 AM »
Bigger question, where are the lenses?

Or even a Fuji-style lens road map, updated regularly as design decisions are finalized and with the lenses actually introduced when they are promised?

11
EOS Bodies / Re: Expect Higher End Products at CP+ in February
« on: January 07, 2015, 09:24:45 AM »
dSLRs continue to outsell MILCs by a wide margin?  Based on published sales data, it's quite probable that sales of Canon Rebel/xxxD dSLRs exceed those of all MILCs on the market from all brands combined. 

And how much of the dSLR sales advantage is due to sheer inertia? There are an awful lot of legacy Nikon and Canon lenses out there. Largely ignoring the MILC market certainly works as a short term strategy but I question its viability over the long haul, >3-5 years.

I think the Samsung NX1 is potentially a "game-changer". (Sorry, but I hate that expression.) How are Canon and Nikon going to respond if Samsung introduces an NX1-derivative that has 16MP and a revised/refined user interface and does 25 full resolution frames per second, but loses a stop in high-ISO image quality, compared to the 1Dx and D4s, due to its smaller sensor size? Such a camera may happen later this year.

12
EOS Bodies / Re: Canon Confirms Development of High Megapixel Camera
« on: December 25, 2014, 07:45:51 AM »
Regarding the new EF line, I don't remember who posted it, but it was rumored not too long ago on this site that canon would make a new EF mount for a mirrorless camera.  Perhaps the new camera will be mirrorless?
+1, but still capable of using EF lenses with an adapter. That's my guess.

Update: Also, consider the possibility that the new 50MP sensor might support 4:1 binning, resulting in a 12.5MP sensor capable of ridiculously high ISOs (409K??). Because there is no mirror and because Canon develops a new image processing architecture, the camera is also capable of taking 24FPS at 12.5MP as well as 6FPS at 50MP. Would that make up for the loss of an OVF? Hey, a fella can dream.

Meanwhile Samsung develops a 16MP sensor for a variant of their NX1, also capable of 24FPS full resolution images per second, and the race is on!!

13
PowerShot Cameras / Re: Canon to Target The GH4 With New DSLR Type? [CR2]
« on: December 15, 2014, 10:31:27 AM »
1" sensor? Are you sure of the swapable lens? Does 1" sensor + EF/EF-S makes any sense?
Even with EF-M (all STM for video), the 22m f/2 turn into a 60mm equiv. lens and the 18-55mm turns into a 50-150mm
+1, something doesn't mesh here. If the camera is supposed to compete with the GH4, then the sensor would probably have to be larger than 1". The camera being described sounds more like competition for the GoPro. If it uses a 1" sensor, then a new lens mount or maybe a fixed lens would probably be required.

My guess: The sensor size is APS-C not 1" and the camera is tiny but still uses an M-mount. Canon simultaneously introduces a couple pancake primes in appropriate focal lengths.

14
EOS Bodies / Re: Petapixel: Canon Full Frame Mirrorless
« on: December 04, 2014, 10:53:53 AM »
I have to ask, what's the point of the mirrorless camera if it used EF lenses? The 6D isn't that much bigger than the A7, and they could probably shave some size off the next one if they wanted to.

How about a successor to the 1Dx (or 7D2) capable of getting 24 full resolution still images per second? The Sony A6000 does 11FPS, faster than the 7D2. Imagine how good it could be if it was engineered to sell for $1800 or $6000, not $450. Also, a mirrorless FF camera, with a shortened sensor-to-flange distance and using EF lenses, would allow Canon to introduce native lenses at a more reasonable pace.

My guess is that a FF Mirrorless Canon camera could be about the same size as the Sony A6000, except a little taller to accommodate the larger diameter of the EF mount.

15
Lenses / Re: With a new 100-400L, is the 28-300L Next?
« on: November 29, 2014, 05:01:34 PM »
The 28-300L is relatively new, replacing the 35-350mmL just a few years ago. They are pretty slow sellers.
 
I'm doubting that a slow selling lens will be released in a seriously falling market.

Does June 2004 qualify as "just a few years ago"?

http://www.canon.com/camera-museum/lens/ef/data/telephoto_zoom/ef_28~300_35~56lis_usm.html

Anyway, it's too late for me. I bought the latest version of the Tamron 28-300 as a vacation lens and it's proving to be pretty good.

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