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Messages - unfocused

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1456
EOS Bodies / Re: APS-C Roadmap for 2012: A Prediction
« on: June 11, 2012, 01:33:57 PM »
Maybe I'm using too narrow of a definition of a "new" sensor, but I haven't seen any indication that the T4i sensor makes any improvement in sensitivity, dynamic range, noise or resolution. It sounds like the only change to the sensor is to allow for autofocus in live view and movie mode.

I'm not saying that's insignificant. I'm just suggesting that when we talk about sensor improvements, that's not usually what people on this forum are thinking about.  This is a sensor change in order to allow another technology (autofocus) to work better. But, is there any indication that Canon has actually improved the performance of the sensor itself? Am I missing something here?

1457
EOS Bodies / Re: APS-C Roadmap for 2012: A Prediction
« on: June 11, 2012, 10:23:17 AM »
Not bad, although missing the sensor is kind of a biggie.

Based on the T4i, I'd say both the 70D and 7D will get touch screen controls and continuous autofocus in movie mode. Not sure about the flip screen for the 7D. Canon may reserve that for consumer-level cameras.

The big question in my mind is whether or not the 7D and 70D will share the same sensor. I'm guessing at least one new sensor, but it's possible we could see two. A 22-24 mp monster in the 70D and 18-20 mp with improved performance in the 7D.

I think your pricing on the 70D may be close, but contrary to conventional wisdom on this forum, I wouldn't be surprised to see the 7D come in at about $1,800.

1458
EOS Bodies / Re: The Last Flagship DSLRs
« on: June 10, 2012, 10:29:13 PM »
I think you may be a generation or two premature.

Eventually, DSLRs may be replaced by something better, but I think the alternative technology will have to mature first for that to happen.

I do agree with Mt. Spokane, I don't see mirrorless being the replacement. They seem more like FrankenCameras to me: cobbled together from today's technology in an attempt to create something new, but not really doing anything better than existing cameras. They remind me of Instamatics or, at best, Polaroids. Polaroid being an interesting technology that had some good commercial and artistic uses, but never really challenged mainstream cameras.

The only mirrorless I find remotely interesting are the Fuji X series and they are more of a "back to the future" technology rather than cutting edge new.

Still, I agree with some of your basic premise, but I tend to come at it from a different perspective.

I agree that as DSLR technology matures, the improvements from one generation to another become ever more incremental. In addition, I suspect the development cycle will increase, simply because there won't be rapid and significant breakthroughs. The current 7D is almost three years old now. Compare the development cycle between the 40D, 50D and the 7D. The 40D came out in 2007; the 50D in 2008 and the 7D in 2009.

It is almost three years later and the 7D is still very competitive and compares favorably to any other APS-C camera in the market. It's entirely possible that the 7DII and the 5DIII could each have a shelf life of four to five years. The 7DIII and the 5DIV? Maybe five to seven years.

This is not just a function of DSLR technology maturing, though. It is also a function of diminishing returns. The lowest cost Rebels now meet 90% or more of most photographers needs. The 7D and 5DII probably pushed that to about 95%. The 5DIII and 7DII, maybe 98%.  As anyone knows, meeting those final numbers gets tremendously expensive, requires significantly more time in development, and is only marginally important to most customers.

I'm old enough to remember that when the F1 came out, Canon actually promised they would NOT make changes for a decade. (That was a selling point then because professionals wanted that predictability.)

It's premature to predict the "death" of the DSLR. But the dizzying rate of replacement we've grown accustomed to in the last decade may be dying.

1459
EOS Bodies / Re: Is Canon at a Crossroads?
« on: June 10, 2012, 01:55:44 PM »
I think Canon is at a crossroads, but it's not the crossroads you imagine.

If you read their announcements for these new lenses and the T4i, it's pretty clear these lenses are targeted to video.

Quote
To leverage the unique, new shooting functions of the EOS Rebel T4i, such as EOS Full HD Movie with continuous AF, Canon is introducing two new unique lenses, the new EF-S 18-135mm f/3.5-5.6 IS STM lens and new EF 40mm f/2.8 STM lens. Both new STM lenses include Canon’s new Stepping Motor technology, which allows the lenses to smoothly and silently focus, and when used in combination with Canon’s new EOS Rebel T4i Movie Servo AF feature, achieve continuous AF while recording video. The new stepping motor technology in both lenses quietly focuses allowing the EOS Rebel T4i’s stereo microphone to only record the sounds of the scene being shot.

...Appearing for the first time in a Canon EF lens is Dynamic IS (Movie Shooting Mode only) that uses a wide image stabilization correction range to help ensure steady video even when shooting while walking.

Canon has heavily invested in the video DSLR market over the past year. Clearly they see that as a critical component of their sales strategy and they are going after everything from the amateurs trying to capture their little darlings' first steps, all the way up to full scale Hollywood productions.

And, frankly, it's working for them. Canon pretty much currently owns the video DSLR market and I think they intend to hold on to it.

1460
EOS Bodies / Re: Will there be a 7d2 at all?
« on: June 10, 2012, 11:02:04 AM »
It'll get a new AF system so the 19-pt system can go to the 70D. It'll get a higher MP sensor. Some might call those 'killer' but I call them incremental.

Pretty much agree, although given Canon's recent emphasis on ISO over pixels, I could see them keeping the sensor at 18-20 mp and improving the ISO performance slightly. We might see some improvement in weather sealing. I expect a touch-screen on the back but not necessarily a swivel-screen. Maybe live focus in movie mode, like the T4i (Gotta sell more of those new lenses).

Honestly, that's probably enough for me to upgrade as I'd like to have a second body anyway and I'm not at all interested in full frame.

1461
EOS Bodies / Re: Lower Price Full Frame Camera [CR1]
« on: June 10, 2012, 10:51:30 AM »
Quote
Similarly - continuing the production of the 5d mkII may not be cheaper for Canon than producing a new cut down version of the 5d mkIII. In fact if they stopped manufacturing mkIIs and released another camera that used the same sensor as the mkIII but with other features removed - they would probably see large savings compared to having to continue to have two separate production lines for sensors.

Same with processors, I suspect. Rather than continue to produce the old processor and old sensor, it's probably cheaper to put the new ones in a different body. I suspect a "budget" full frame camera would have a composite body, scaled down autofocus, SD Card only, slower frame rate, etc.

1462
Ha! Distant star you are right. Darn autocorrect, typing too fast and late night got to me.

1463
All this macho fighting over the trees, without seeing the forest.

The significance here is the convergence of quality between APS-C and full frame. The objective differences get smaller and smaller with each new generation. It doesn't matter if Nikon or Canon has a slight edge this month, the long march is toward indistinguishable differences in quality between two different size sensors.

1464
Canon just produced a major firmware upgrade for their "flagship APS-C format DSLR" (Their words, not mine) and people are imagining that they are going to a) merge this with an inferior model or b) change to a sensor size that they've abandoned.

These aren't mere dreams, they are full-on drug-induced, hallucinogenic fantasies.

Um, didn't Canon just do this with the 1DX? ???  They took the flagship IDs line and the inferior ID line and merged them together to make one of the most advanced DSLR's ever made. Hmmm... I very clearly see them doing this with the XXD line and the 7D line.

Um, no they didn't do that.They dropped an obsolete technology and merged the models into the flagship full frame. You would have a point if they had dropped the full frame flagship and kept the cheaper APS-H, but they didn't. They upgraded the more expensive model and gave it a new letter.

1465
They are going to introduce a 7D2...could also suggest that it may be APS-H...

Reaching out a hand to shake your shoulder and wake you up from the dream...   ::)

Thank God somebody has some sense here.

Canon just produced a major firmware upgrade for their "flagship APS-C format DSLR" (Their words, not mine) and people are imagining that they are going to a) merge this with an inferior model or b) change to a sensor size that they've abandoned.

These aren't mere dreams, they are full-on drug-induced, hallucinogenic fantasies.

The 70D will get the autofocus and most other characteristics of the 7D (except the alloy body). It will go up to about $1,300-$1,400 U.S. Close enough to the T4i to enable retailers to upsale potential customers. (Once a buyer crosses the physiological threshold of $1,000, it's pretty easy to get them to pop for a few hundred dollars more.)

That still leaves lots of room for a 7DII, which will get a new sensor, higher frame rate, enhanced autofocus, enhanced weathersealing and whatever else Canon decides to cram into it (driven by their targeted price point.) Pricing will be anywhere from $1,700 to $2,400 depending on features.

If it's under $2,000, we could see a 7Dx with an integrated grip and full weathersealing. (Professional sports/wildlife camera to replace the APS-H 1D. They can sell the pro-level for anywhere from $2,000 to $3,000 depending on how they target and market it.

Bottom line, Canon has at least $1,000 to $1,500 in headroom between the top Rebel and the flagship APS-C 7DII. That's plenty of room for a 70D and maybe even something else.

This fixation with an arbitrary numbering nomenclature as though it has to follow certain imaginary rules is just weird.

1466
I see this as very good news for the future of a 7DII. I seriously doubt Canon would be upgrading the 7D firmware and referring to it as its "flagship APS-C sensor" camera if they were planning to kill it off in a few months.

It also shows a commitment to their flagship model customers that, frankly, I appreciate. Yes, it makes good business sense for them to do this, but as long as I benefit, I'm not complaining.

On the downside, I do wonder if this means no 7DII by Photokina. But, I wouldn't say that for certain. If they continue the tradition of passing down the flagship sensor to lower level models it seems like they'll have to upgrade the sensor soon. Should be an interesting next few months.

1467
Canon General / Re: future canon camera models
« on: June 08, 2012, 10:27:13 AM »
My two cents:

Digital technology is maturing. We probably won't see the huge improvements of the last five years over the next five years. Even the least expensive Rebels these days produce very high quality images in 98% of situations. New technologies are focusing on that remaining 2% (high ISO, autofocus, extended dynamic range, etc.)

As with any technology, improving that 2% is expensive and comes in very small steps. For the vast majority of photographers (both amateur and professional) they will do an informal cost-benefit analysis to determine if the modest improvements are worth the price tag. Camera manufacturers must make the same choices: is it worth X million in research and development to gain 1/2 stop ISO improvement?

The most interesting advancements, I think, are in the area of focusing/sharpening. Right now, the Lytros camera is a toy. But it may not always be so. Adobe is already experimenting with software focusing to correct out-of-focus images.

Another area I find intriguing is Fuji's experiments with hybrid digital/organic sensors. Early claims are that a hybrid APS-C sensor could outperform a conventional full frame sensor.

My view: the next big breakthroughs could very well come in totally unexpected areas.

1468
EOS Bodies / Re: What will the 650d sensor be like?
« on: June 07, 2012, 05:41:00 PM »
I didn't mean to put down the 60D in any way.

Just saying that Canon made the 650D identical in specs to the 60D (sans the top LCD).
So, no more product differentiation between the two - a clear sign that the 60D days are numbered.
And that a higher specs 70D is on the way.

With an even higher-specs 7DII.

1469
EOS Bodies / Re: Canon EOS Rebel T4i/650D Touchscreen Example Videos
« on: June 07, 2012, 02:42:43 PM »
Count me among those who like this feature. I never use live view and have no particular interest in a swivel screen, but this I like.

It would be so much easier to just touch the setting you want to change and have the menu come up, instead of cycling through all the settings with the wheel and buttons. This will save time and prevent accidentally selecting the wrong function. I'm less excited about the image review functions, but they seem okay.

Most definitely not a gimmick in my book.

1470
Third Party Manufacturers / Re: Pressure By the Nikon D600?
« on: June 07, 2012, 10:28:31 AM »
I don't know. Would Nikon drop its D800 prices after Nikon releases its rumored Entry Full Camera the D600?

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