November 28, 2014, 11:19:33 PM

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Messages - c.d.embrey

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I can see the Mirrorless segment grow
I can see the P&S shrink
I can see the DSLR shrink as well
And I can see the overall marked shrink

Where I disagree,
I don't see Mirrorless growing as much as they expect
I don't see DSLR shrinking as much as they think ...

I see DSLRs shrinking more than they think.

In terms of the professionals, for every 1 who goes to Sony, I see 9 - 10 staying Nikon / Canon, whether it is loyalty, Glass, or just preference.

Canon, Nikon and Sony are not the only game in town. Professional for the most part, are not fanboys, what is important to them is camera handling and ROI (return on investment). Olympus has a new 300mm f/4 (=600mm FF) that is easily hand held (all day) and a 40-150mm f/2.8 (= 80-300mm FF) Weight is only 760g(without tripod base) / 26.8 oz. Mirrorless  focusing is getting faster (fast enough for motorsports right now). Expect to see more pros switching to M4/3 and mirrorless.

If Sony is going to continue to push R&D and only have 9% of the market, long term those margins will bite them.  It would be interesting to follow Nikon especially if their next gen go back to their own sensors - Nikon could really be up the creek if they rely on Sony and Sony folds their line like they did with TVs and Computers. They may have gotten a boost in short term using someone elses sensor, but that is dangerous if one of your main components is from a company that is bleeding money and has a history of folding product lines

Which market are you talking about ??? Sony owns most of the Broadcast Television market (World Series, World Cup, Super Bowl, NFL, NBA, college football, etc). And this has been true for many years. Sony and Arriflex do most of the high-end production of motion picture and television world-wide.

Add camera-phone sensors to the TV and motion picture sensors and Sony isn't going away :)

This makes zero sense to me.

You have this forecast (made by Sony), no matter if it is DSLR/ILC, its still a shrinking market for all still cameras. So why is Sony investing in still cameras by creating all these new sensors?

Is this a clue that they are going to 'abort ship' in 2017?

Because there will still be a decreasing market for sensors for traditional cameras. A steady market for video cameras, both amateur and broadcast. And an expanding market for camera-phones. Sensor technology is sensor technology, and being the leader in sensor technology will (hopefully) make Sony a lot of money.

I think that they are right about an overall drop of about 50% in camera sales. The forecast may even be a little low. The gear-heads and pixel-peepers may move on to a new way to spend money. Serious PHOTO enthusiasts (NOT gear-heads) don't buy as many new cameras.

Camera-phone image quality/features will take a big leap in the next three (3) years, killing what's left of the low-end camera market.

Lenses / Re: Canon EF-S 24mm f/2.8 STM Sample Images
« on: November 27, 2014, 01:19:10 AM »
Anyone have any thoughts or knowledge of why Canon went EFS instead of EF with this lens? Seems like a good match with the 40 for FF.

Seems to me that this 24mm is meant to be the 40mm equivalent for crop cameras -- 24mm x 1.6 =38.4.

As an xxD owner it is NOT a lens that I want, I'd have preferred a 17.5mm (= 28mm FF) NON-Pancake lens. YMMV.

How long is the room ? How wide is the room ? What type of portrait, head only, head and shoulders, waist up, full body ? How many people ?

If you want full body and multiple people, about 12" ceiling x 30" long x 20" wide is what you want. This may seem overly large, but a 9 foot seamless/muslin background only leaves you 5.5 feet on either side for lights, etc.

EOS Bodies / Re: Patent: Canon EF-S 11-24mm f/3.5-4.5
« on: November 18, 2014, 11:43:11 PM »

That lens (sort of) exists, doesn't it?

- A

No, no, no! The EF 8-15mm f/4 L is a Fisheye Zoom. A Fisheye is NOT a substitute for a Rectilinear lens like the existing EF-S 10-22mm f/3.5-4.5, the rumored EF-S 11-24mm f/3.5-4.5 or my proposed 8.75-17.5mm lens.

EOS Bodies / Re: Patent: Canon EF-S 11-24mm f/3.5-4.5
« on: November 18, 2014, 03:53:43 PM »
I'd prefer an 8.75mm - 17.5 mm (= 14-28mm Full Frame). f/3.5-4.5 is OK on my 10-22mm.

BTW Olympus has a NEW 7-14mm f/2.8 lens coming (= 14-28mm FF)

EOS Bodies / Re: A Real EOS M Replacement Coming Soon? [CR1]
« on: November 17, 2014, 07:44:25 PM »
I hope it has the size and controls of the Fuji X-T1, has the 7D2 sensor, a swivel screen, and lots of videocentric features.

I don't think it will be that drasticallly different from what is out now, they would be in fear of cannibalizing their DSLR sales.

Steve Jobs said: "If you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will." For me, that someone else was Olympus. I've already bought my last Canon DSLR, and if Canon doesn't come out with a Pro Mirrrrorless I've already bought my last Canon camera.

EOS Bodies / Re: A Real EOS M Replacement Coming Soon? [CR1]
« on: November 17, 2014, 10:41:23 AM »
It needs to be as good as an Olympus E-M1, a Panasonic GH4 or a Fuji X-T1. Anything less will not cause people to switch back to Canon.

DXO is for gearheads. Lots of discussion on the fora, but Pros don't pay much (any) attention.

EOS Bodies - For Stills / Re: Recommend first slr
« on: November 07, 2014, 04:46:37 PM »
Olympus OM-D E-M10 Mirrorless Micro Four Thirds Digital Camera with 14-42mm Lens. $749.00

Here's Pekka Potka's preview

The Canon Experience Center is located at 123 Paularino Ave, Costa Mesa, CA 92626. This is close to the John Wayne Airport. They have closed the repair facility in Irvine.

This is also the location of Canon Business Solutions.

Why NO ADDRESS in the press release ??? Why doesn't Canon respect their customers ???

EOS Bodies / Re: what is the body you want to see canon release next ?
« on: November 02, 2014, 03:13:45 PM »
What I want is a CROP MIRRORLESS camera with an EVF.  Either a mirrorless 70D or a mirrorless 7D2 would be great.

New lenses needed -- EF & EF-S lenses with adaptor. For me, I'd need an 8.75mm f/2.8 (= 14mm FF), a 56.25mm f/2.8 Tilt & Shift (=90mm FF) and an 85mm f/1.8 (=135mm FF). I'm sure that there would be demand for a 11.25 - 187.5mm zoom (=18-300mm FF) :)

I have NO INTEREST in either Full Frame or Optical Viewfinder.

Lighting / Re: Shooting Full Body White Backgrounds
« on: October 28, 2014, 06:17:54 PM »
Here's how pro photographer Jerry Avenaim does it  I've never seen a better explanation.

Never heard of Jerry Avenaim? Here's his biography

Not every beginner wants to be a Wedding Photographer. Many people want to become Commercial Photographers, Photo Journalists and Fine Art Photographers. Also BIF/Wildlife and Landscape Photographers. Some also like Architectural Photography as a business. Did I mention non-PJ Editorial Photographers.

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