The prediction above was that all pros will be using small format cameras (smaller than full frame) and that only hobbyists will use full frame, and that this would happen in the not too distant future. The past does not tell us that. If the march to smaller formats were so inevitable, then NO commercial or landscape photographer would be using medium format today. They would have all moved to full frame or smaller. That's obviously not not true, as many continue to use medium format, as do some portrait photographers. Likewise they won't all move to smaller than full-frame in the near or not too distant future.
There was a time that Wedding photographers uses mostly Medium Format, etc for weddings. Then it's mostly 35mm. Nowadays there's even people that's doing paid weddings via Fuji or M43. Some will stay at 35mm of course. But MILCs are now getting to a point that some are willing to bet their livelihood on them. Whether cropped cameras will replace FF as the predominant format for various professional work (not for all of them, just as Medium Format still exists), only time will tell. But it can be assured that as cropped systems become better and better that more and more will adopt it for paid work.
Well, I agree with all of that as it's a reasonable, realistic assessment. I disagree with c.d embrey's claims that "In the not-to-distant-future only hobbyists will use Full Frame, and pros will have moved-on to smaller formats." Some hobbyists, yes. Some pros, yes. But it's too much of a blanket statement to be true for everybody. Full frame and optical viewfinders have a lot of appeal for pros, and pros have *very* diverse needs. EVFs and small formats are great, but they don't meet everyone's needs all of the time. I'm using 3 formats for paid work and finding each is good in its way.
Since the beginning of photography pros have always
moved-on to smaller formats. Really large format cameras were replaced by 8x10 cameras which were replaced by 4x5.
At one time there were 6x9, 6x8, 6x7 and 6x6 medium format film cameras. Then these camera were mostly replaced by 6x4.5 film cameras, which were replaced by 6x4.5 digital. But that doesn't stop Martin Schoeller from shooting covers for Time magazine with 120 film
, using a Fuji rangefinder camera (Texas Leica).
Like it or not One Inch cameras are good enough for many pro jobs right now. By the time that the iPhone 7
comes along there will be an App
that triggers strobes (just like a Pocket Wizard) And there will be young pros shooting with an iPhone and Profoto strobes
There are some hobbyists (and a few pros) shooting 8x10 cameras. Other hobbyist ares shooting panoramas with 4x10 cameras instead of stitching digital. There are also a few people using Banquet Cameras (7x17 in. and 12x20 in.) Nothing in photography ever truly goes away. The Impossible Project
is bringing back 8x10 Polaroid https://www.the-impossible-project.com/8x10/
Me, I'd like to see them bring back Type 55 film. BTW in the future there will be hobbyists added to this group who will use Medium Format and Full Frame
Heraclitus (c. 535 BC – 475 BC) is reputed to have said: "There is nothing permanent except change." Sounds reasonable to me. YMMV.