I can see the Mirrorless segment grow
I can see the P&S shrink
I can see the DSLR shrink as well
And I can see the overall marked shrink
Where I disagree,
I don't see Mirrorless growing as much as they expect
I don't see DSLR shrinking as much as they think ...
I see DSLRs shrinking more than they think.
In terms of the professionals, for every 1 who goes to Sony, I see 9 - 10 staying Nikon / Canon, whether it is loyalty, Glass, or just preference.
Canon, Nikon and Sony are not the only game in town. Professional for the most part, are not fanboys, what is important to them is camera handling and ROI (return on investment). Olympus has a new 300mm f/4 (=600mm FF) that is easily hand held (all day) and a 40-150mm f/2.8 (= 80-300mm FF) Weight is only 760g(without tripod base) / 26.8 oz. Mirrorless focusing is getting faster (fast enough for motorsports right now). Expect to see more pros switching to M4/3 and mirrorless.
If Sony is going to continue to push R&D and only have 9% of the market, long term those margins will bite them. It would be interesting to follow Nikon especially if their next gen go back to their own sensors - Nikon could really be up the creek if they rely on Sony and Sony folds their line like they did with TVs and Computers. They may have gotten a boost in short term using someone elses sensor, but that is dangerous if one of your main components is from a company that is bleeding money and has a history of folding product lines
Which market are you talking about
Sony owns most of the Broadcast Television market (World Series, World Cup, Super Bowl, NFL, NBA, college football, etc). And this has been true for many years. Sony and Arriflex do most of the high-end production of motion picture and television world-wide.
Add camera-phone sensors to the TV and motion picture sensors and Sony isn't going away