IMO if a person really needs the lens they will just go out and buy it. No one has a crystal ball to predict price drops. Really, how much of a price drop does it take for someone to buy? 100 dollars, 200 dollars? For the amount of time waiting you could of been out there taking pictures and enjoying the lens. So a person waits 6 months or longer to save $200, your time with that lens is worth a hell of a lot more. Look at the 70-200 2.8 II, it's price still stays fairly high.