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Author Topic: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?  (Read 13453 times)

Northstar

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2012, 09:15:58 AM »
My Magic 8 Ball saysTry Again Later.  Damn.  Frickin' Ball!  Always pussin' out when I need a straight answer!

Seriously, IMO you *might* save $200-$300 by negotiating or get some extras thrown in free because the dealer wants your business.  Someone buying a 1DX is a potential "big fish".  Plus it looks good to sell one of those suckers.  (Wonder what the profit margin is?)

Northstar, what feature(s) of the 1DX are you looking at that makes you want to replace your 5D3 or add to your inventory of fine cameras?  I'm just curious because I gave that same question a lot of thought before I bought my 5D3.  Because I use my cameras outdoors a lot, I look at everything I buy as the next broken item due to drop or whatever can happen.  Even the 5D3 is a lot of money, more than I really should be spending as a non-pro.  Have you rented one?  Do you know or discussed it with someone who already has one?  What has you excited about it?

What are the reasons/benefits to buy a 1DX?  Well for sure durability, super badass speed and then the incremental differences about ergonomics, metering controls, etc.  If you absolutely gotta get that shot of Michael Phelps diving in, 12fps would be nice insurance!  However, if someone is paying out of pocket and unless the shots being taken are literally once in a lifetime, my ass is toast if I don't get them, why spend the money?  (You can bet I would buy two 1DXs in a minute if my career/reputation was over without shots it could provide.  But that rarely happens.)  In most cases, I would rather have at most a 5D3 and then several nice L lenses.

Semi-unrelated thought about the definition of "Pros"
As for the comments about pros... I'm not a "pro" but I am a small business owner and I have known some pros over the years.  All 'pro' means is someone charges money for their pictures.  So I'll go out on a limb and say most pros in the camera ecosystem are small business owners.  If you know pro photographers, most are not working with budgets handed down from accounting they have to use or lose.  And they usually don't buy anything more than a box of paper clips without mapping out the purchase to fit within the accounting limits of the business.  Esp if they have employees.  Those pros that buy things on a whim are usually out of business and heavily in debt within a year or two after they've blown that small business loan seed money.  Smart business owners are very conservative because it's a lot less stressful at bill paying time and frankly, they would rather eat and buy personal items than have big ticket business assets that might result in a cold house with hungry kids or wives.

Now with that said, there are myriad of other "pro" entities that are not small businesses, they are graphics production houses, ad agencies, publication companies with studios or photographer pools, etc, etc.  IMO, those are the entities with large budgets that consider camera equipment as assets and a lot of money gets thrown around so things like a 1DX with 5 L lenses each (or 3, or 5, or 10 sets of them) isn't a camera or a lens, it's just a number on a balance sheet in another dept and a decision is made and the pro photographer (employee, not owner) comes in to work one day and there are 20 cases of goodies sitting in his office.

I assume that when many people on this forum say 'pro' with regard to buying, they automatically think of the latter scenario?  (Or they think of the 1% of wealthy individuals that just like to buy expensive toys.)  But when I think of 'pro', I think of the first scenario where if a $7000 purchase is made, it better be paid for within the year because baby needs a new pair of shoes!!  I bet a lot of those pros buy 5D2 or 5D3 bodies and keep the rest of the money in the bank.  As long as their clients love their work, it makes zero diff how the image happened, it just looks lovely.  Here are your pictures and my invoice.  Thank you!

I love shooting sports...the 1dx is the best tool for sports by far.   I look at it like this, I'll sell the 1dx in 3-4 years (I take extremely good care of my equip) and probably get $4500-5000 for it.   So I view the cost as $2000 (6800-4800) for 4 years of ownership.

In today's world of 0% interest on my bank savings account, there's very no "opportunity cost" for moving $6800 out of savings and over to "camera" on my balance sheet....the only cost is the $2000, and up until a year ago i was spending that amount monthly for my kids in daycare.

If I wasn't passionate about shooting sports, then the 5d3 would be plenty of camera for me...I love my 5d3 and will keep it.
Look closer, it's not a robin.

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #15 on: November 14, 2012, 09:15:58 AM »

Dylan777

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #16 on: November 14, 2012, 09:30:31 AM »
Just look at 1D IV price history:



Personally I don't see any reasons to wait. It's not about a thousand of dollars, it can be just 2-3 hundreds, but is that something you are going to wait for?


This 1d4 history chart that you show is partly why I have this concern....the price dropped about 4-6 months after release, just in time for the holidays. 

Saving $200-$300 is not my concern, it's a drop to $5999 within the next few months that concerns me.   Before you say "not gonna happen", just remember that the 5d3 was available for $2999 from reputable dealers in the past few weeks.  (and I believe will be available again at that price for the holidays)  And that was a 15% drop ($3500 to $2999)   A 15% drop in the 1dX put's it at roughly $5999. 
That's $800 and the reason for my concern.   I know it's probably wishful thinking...but there's nothing wrong with that, right?


+1.....Count me in for that. I have over 10,000 reward points($500ish cash value) with Crutchfield, that will bring the 1D X down to $5500ish. If this is happen, I might believe in Santa Claus all over again :o
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curtisnull

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #17 on: November 14, 2012, 09:47:49 AM »
Buy it with your American Express card. They will price protect you on it. That's what I did when my 300mm f/2.8L IS II dropped $50 at B&H and when my 5D3 dropped $505 at B&H.
1Dx••5D3••300/2.8L IS II••135/2L••100/2.8L IS Macro••50/1.4••24/1.4L II••70-200/2.8L IS II••24-70/2.8L II••17-40/4 L••600EX-RT••lots more Canon stuff.

RustyTheGeek

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2012, 09:53:41 AM »

I assume that when many people on this forum say 'pro' with regard to buying, they automatically think of the latter scenario?  (Or they think of the 1% of wealthy individuals that just like to buy expensive toys.)  But when I think of 'pro', I think of the first scenario where if a $7000 purchase is made, it better be paid for within the year because baby needs a new pair of shoes!!  I bet a lot of those pros buy 5D2 or 5D3 bodies and keep the rest of the money in the bank.  As long as their clients love their work, it makes zero diff how the image happened, it just looks lovely.  Here are your pictures and my invoice.  Thank you!

I love shooting sports...the 1dx is the best tool for sports by far.   I look at it like this, I'll sell the 1dx in 3-4 years (I take extremely good care of my equip) and probably get $4500-5000 for it.   So I view the cost as $2000 (6800-4800) for 4 years of ownership.

In today's world of 0% interest on my bank savings account, there's very no "opportunity cost" for moving $6800 out of savings and over to "camera" on my balance sheet....the only cost is the $2000, and up until a year ago i was spending that amount monthly for my kids in daycare.

If I wasn't passionate about shooting sports, then the 5d3 would be plenty of camera for me...I love my 5d3 and will keep it.

Northstar, I love your response.  It sounds like you are looking at the really big picture and most folks don't stop to consider the money side.  The way our economy is currently running and by its very design, we have to look at our dollars in a monetary system kind of way.  Most people don't.  It appears that you do.  Just don't forget that your plans to sell in the future are still dependent on the camera not getting damaged, stolen or lost in a fire.  Don't forget to cover those contingencies.  (And I assume you have.)  And if I shot sports, esp for a living, I would have a 7D for sure and quite possibly a 1DX eventually which I guess is the point you're at now.  Can't wait to hear you got a great deal.  Wish you were local, I'd buy you a beer.  Have a good day.
Yes, but what would  surapon  say ??  :D

neuroanatomist

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #19 on: November 14, 2012, 09:56:41 AM »
Just don't forget that your plans to sell in the future are still dependent on the camera not getting damaged, stolen or lost in a fire.  Don't forget to cover those contingencies.

That's what insurance is for...   :)
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RustyTheGeek

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #20 on: November 14, 2012, 10:30:07 AM »
Just don't forget that your plans to sell in the future are still dependent on the camera not getting damaged, stolen or lost in a fire.  Don't forget to cover those contingencies.

That's what insurance is for...   :)

Yeah, I knew that was probably coming.  Insurance is a given and why I added 'And I assume you have' after that statement.  It's all good.   :)

You would be amazed at how often I hear how something wasn't insured because either the insurance was too expensive and lapsed or the policy wasn't reviewed often and it didn't actually cover the loss when the claim was made.  Then there is the cost of the deductible.  And finally, damage may not be covered at all unless there is a rider on the policy or it's a policy specifically written to cover damage.  (Observe premium and deductible rising as I type.)  In general, insurance is for large losses, not small ones.  Most small repairs or losses are out of pocket because the deductible is too high and the claim will raise the premium anyway.  Possible repair on the 1DX could be $400 or $4000.  Either way, it will cost $400 - deductible.  And that increases the $2000 projected cost at the end when Northstar sells it used.  (I probably should have left 'fire' out of the list and then insurance isn't always the best option.)

I wasn't trying to negate his strategy, in fact I applaud his thinking it out that far.  I do the same thing.  I just wanted to say that that time period between purchase and resale is a big gray area full of risk and possible pitfalls to the outcome.  Just like any investment.  One must be careful to base a buying decision on the future resale value.  I think buying cameras is a lot like buying cars, either new or used.  You're buying it to use and eventually you will sell it.  Almost like an extended lease or rental except you own the equity.  And that is exactly what I think Northstar illustrated with his strategy.  The big question is what happens along the way to affect that final cost number at the end.  Obviously, it's a rough guess.  Here's hoping it becomes a classic collectors' item by then and is worth more than was paid for it!!   ;D
Yes, but what would  surapon  say ??  :D

RustyTheGeek

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2012, 10:40:01 AM »
....the only cost is the $2000, and up until a year ago i was spending that amount monthly for my kids in daycare.

BTW, been there, done that!!  When it comes to the money side of things, I really envy all those folks with income and no kids.  Wow.  And that daycare must have been one of those upscale daycare spas I've heard so much about!  :D

Nah, kidding aside, decent daycare/preschool is really expensive.  Which is why we would just put 'em in the back yard with chew toys and water.  No wait, that wasn't the kids!  Ooops.  Sometimes I wonder if there's a difference.  Oh yeah, I usually don't want to beat disown scream at the dog as much.   Did I mention my kids are teenagers now?  ;)
« Last Edit: November 14, 2012, 10:43:52 AM by RustyTheGeek »
Yes, but what would  surapon  say ??  :D

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #21 on: November 14, 2012, 10:40:01 AM »

neuroanatomist

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #22 on: November 14, 2012, 10:56:44 AM »
@RustyTheGeek - great points!

You would be amazed at how often I hear how something wasn't insured because either the insurance was too expensive and lapsed or the policy wasn't reviewed often and it didn't actually cover the loss when the claim was made.  Then there is the cost of the deductible.  And finally, damage may not be covered at all unless there is a rider on the policy or it's a policy specifically written to cover damage.

Sadly, I would not be surprised.  Many people think their homeowner's or renter's policy will cover their gear - and it will, to a point, and subject to a deductible.

But most insurers offer riders or supplemental policies (e.g. State Farm calls it a 'Personal Articles' policy, can cover camera gear, jewelry, fine art, etc.).  Always read the policy!  Mine applies worldwide, covers damage, theft, loss, etc., and has no deductible.  I pay $7.60 per year per $1000 gear covered.

One other common omission is not notifying your insurer when you get new gear.  Usually, a serial number of documentation of purchase is required.  For me, I have 30 days from purchase as a 'grace period' when the new item is covered, by then I need to have notified them.

Most small repairs or losses are out of pocket because the deductible is too high and the claim will raise the premium anyway.  Possible repair on the 1DX could be $400 or $4000.  Either way, it will cost $400 - deductible.  And that increases the $2000 projected cost at the end when Northstar sells it used.  (I probably should have left 'fire' out of the list and then insurance isn't always the best option.)

As I said, no deductible for me, and in fact from what I've seen here and on other boards about multiple insurers (at least in the US), most such policies have no deductible, at least the personal ones (people who earn $ from photography are generally not eligible for such policies, and would need liability coverage, etc.).

I think the rise of premiums following a claim is a concern, but even more than that, many people don't realize that all such claims are reported to a centralized database (CLUE) that can affect eligibility for coverage in general.  Too many camera gear claims, and you may lose your home insurance.
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Northstar

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #23 on: November 14, 2012, 11:01:15 AM »
....the only cost is the $2000, and up until a year ago i was spending that amount monthly for my kids in daycare.

BTW, been there, done that!!  When it comes to the money side of things, I really envy all those folks with income and no kids.  Wow.  And that daycare must have been one of those upscale daycare spas I've heard so much about!  :D

Nah, kidding aside, decent daycare/preschool is really expensive.  Which is why we would just put 'em in the back yard with chew toys and water.  No wait, that wasn't the kids!  Ooops.  Sometimes I wonder if there's a difference.  Oh yeah, I usually don't want to beat disown scream at the dog as much.   Did I mention my kids are teenagers now?  ;)

years of spending for daycare and other kids expenses loosened up my wallet quite a bit when it comes to my spending attitude....of course it also lessened my wallet quite a bit too. 

I'm pretty excited for Friday...I'm expecting the X and the new hero gopro 3 to both arrive that day.  I have a feeling that the gopro is going to be whole ton of fun.

insurance is a must...thanks for reminding me to call my guy.
Look closer, it's not a robin.

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Northstar

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #24 on: November 14, 2012, 11:03:40 AM »

Quote
+1.....Count me in for that. I have over 10,000 reward points($500ish cash value) with Crutchfield, that will bring the 1D X down to $5500ish. If this is happen, I might believe in Santa Claus all over again :o

dylan...$5500 would be a damn good price...good luck on that....as I said $5999 wouldn't surprise me.
Look closer, it's not a robin.

1dX and 5d3... 24-70 2.8ii, 70-200 2.8ii, 1.4x and 2xiii, 85 1.8, 40 2.8, 300 2.8Lis

Northstar

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #25 on: November 14, 2012, 11:06:45 AM »
@RustyTheGeek - great points!

You would be amazed at how often I hear how something wasn't insured because either the insurance was too expensive and lapsed or the policy wasn't reviewed often and it didn't actually cover the loss when the claim was made.  Then there is the cost of the deductible.  And finally, damage may not be covered at all unless there is a rider on the policy or it's a policy specifically written to cover damage.

Sadly, I would not be surprised.  Many people think their homeowner's or renter's policy will cover their gear - and it will, to a point, and subject to a deductible.

But most insurers offer riders or supplemental policies (e.g. State Farm calls it a 'Personal Articles' policy, can cover camera gear, jewelry, fine art, etc.).  Always read the policy!  Mine applies worldwide, covers damage, theft, loss, etc., and has no deductible.  I pay $7.60 per year per $1000 gear covered.

One other common omission is not notifying your insurer when you get new gear.  Usually, a serial number of documentation of purchase is required.  For me, I have 30 days from purchase as a 'grace period' when the new item is covered, by then I need to have notified them.

Most small repairs or losses are out of pocket because the deductible is too high and the claim will raise the premium anyway.  Possible repair on the 1DX could be $400 or $4000.  Either way, it will cost $400 - deductible.  And that increases the $2000 projected cost at the end when Northstar sells it used.  (I probably should have left 'fire' out of the list and then insurance isn't always the best option.)

As I said, no deductible for me, and in fact from what I've seen here and on other boards about multiple insurers (at least in the US), most such policies have no deductible, at least the personal ones (people who earn $ from photography are generally not eligible for such policies, and would need liability coverage, etc.).

I think the rise of premiums following a claim is a concern, but even more than that, many people don't realize that all such claims are reported to a centralized database (CLUE) that can affect eligibility for coverage in general.  Too many camera gear claims, and you may lose your home insurance.

neuro...I also use State FArm and I agree...it's very affordable and makes tons of sense.  no deductible.
Look closer, it's not a robin.

1dX and 5d3... 24-70 2.8ii, 70-200 2.8ii, 1.4x and 2xiii, 85 1.8, 40 2.8, 300 2.8Lis

bkorcel

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #26 on: November 14, 2012, 11:15:43 AM »
For a numbers of reasons I suspect (including just being Canon), I would expect the 1DX price to go up or hold steady.  Not necessarily due to any internal Canon factors but simply due to currency exchange.  If our dollar in the US continues to be devalued, it will take more of them to purchase imported products.  the current political extension here should continue to dictate printing more money as a "solution" to ongoing financial crisis.

I would buy now and as one person pointed out, try to use a credit card with price protection.  However be careful, any savings you might get from such protection may get lost in interest payments if you use a high interest rate credit card.  You need to do the math for you particular situation, particularly if you do not intend to pay off the balance incurred before interest starts stacking up on you.

You can also use a rebate credit card and get some of that back.  Even 1% might make up any online discount price offered to move inventory.


Northstar

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #27 on: November 14, 2012, 11:17:10 AM »
Quote
Can't wait to hear you got a great deal.  Wish you were local, I'd buy you a beer.  Have a good day.

Rusty...

I haggled with three of them(online retailers) over the phone but the best deal I could get was a couple 16GB CF SNDisk Extreme pro's. 

I'd take you up on that beer...I'm a fellow geek.
Look closer, it's not a robin.

1dX and 5d3... 24-70 2.8ii, 70-200 2.8ii, 1.4x and 2xiii, 85 1.8, 40 2.8, 300 2.8Lis

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #27 on: November 14, 2012, 11:17:10 AM »

RustyTheGeek

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #28 on: November 14, 2012, 11:25:37 AM »
Ditto, we have State Farm too!

That firehose of cash your kids require won't trickle for long, it will likely flow faster soon enough.  And as they get older, you will progressively lose more and more of your personal time to them.  That's why I shoot boy scouts, school swim meets, choir, church, etc.  It's really just a way do enjoy my hobby while I spend time with them.  (And hopefully provide others with meaningful pictures while I try to improve my photography with a lot of shooting material.)

Northstar, let me know how the GoPro works for you!  Keep in mind it's strength is video, the stills will be only fair at best.  I have the Canon D10 and D20 rugged cams and love them for hiking but have considered the GoPro at some point to mount somewhere and get some occasional video.  As big and heavy as the 1DX is, just mount the GoPro to the hotshoe and use it to get companion video and sound to go along with your stills.  Here's what that tackle sounded like when he broke his clavicle!  Ouch!  (Ha!)

Yes, but what would  surapon  say ??  :D

Mt Spokane Photography

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #29 on: November 14, 2012, 11:27:09 AM »
The thing about the Holidays and December(in the USA) is this....people are in the buying mood/mode for large ticket items.  Canon (and retailers) know these well documented buying behaviors/attitudes.  A price drop for the 1dx and 5d3 would totally make sense IMO. 

Also...December is that month where a business owner or manager might have a little extra money in the budget that can (or must) be spent before year end..."spend it or lose it" happens in business...very common.

You can sometimes negotiate by calling a large dealer (No e-mail, they will not put discounts in writing).  Try calling a few who have them in stock.


Mt Spokane...your advice was worth two Sandisk 90mbs 16 gb CF cards....thanks.

Did you check the link I posted??
Now there are 4 dealers that have dropped their price by a few hundred.  Down to $6348 or $6445 from PMI, a authorized dealer.  Did you call PMI??
 
http://www.canonpricewatch.com/product/03792/Canon-EOS-1D-X-price.html

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Re: Does anybody think the 1dx price will come down for the holidays...why?
« Reply #29 on: November 14, 2012, 11:27:09 AM »