True.. technically, assuming a camera is given out everytime the price is reached (the organizer doesn't take profit), you will win 1 in 3500 times on average. You're just as likely to spend more than the retail price as you would be to spend less.
Beyond that, the likelihood that an organizer would give one away at exactly retail price without taking a profit is highly unlikely (I wouldn't...). Plus the mkiii sells for less than $3500 in the US now anyway.
In fact, I got the kit on sale for 3750 and resold the 24-105 for about $900... so $2850 for the body (new). The only one who has an educated reason to be excited about this lottery is the organizer haha