1. When do you think the 1st FF mirrorless will arrive - for $3000 or less of course?
2. Which company will bring to the market first? Sony, Nikon, Samsung, Fujitsu etc….I will not bet on Canon
Lens Rentals will have M9's for 3000$. So, very soon.
Unless the question becomes "When do you think the 1st FF AF mirrorless will arrive"
It's not that the M9 doesn't have AF, it barely even has MF for non-M-mount lenses that don't have a rangefinder coupling. (Of course, there's always "look at the scale and guesstimate with f/8", but if you're going to do that, I bought a Bessa L).
Now, how long will it take for the new M (ie M10) to come down to $3000? Even ex-rental like LR's M9s on sale?
I'd say that's more likely than a FF Mirrorless with a new shorter-flange and more compact-body.
We're more likely to see a FF mirrorless with a standard EF-mount 44mm-flange (like the Pentax K-01, but FF).
It's not that easy to make a FF sensor work with a shorter flange-distance like on NEX and m4/3. The Angle of Incidence is just too great, Leica made it work (just) with a fancy patented microlens thingummy and some firmware hacks (try seeing what happens
when you put a Voigtlander Skopar 21mm on an M9, before and after
the firmware-update that came out conveniently at the same time).
Mirrorless is the future, yes. But my predictions for the current near-future are definitely only aps-c in tiny-bodies, FF will always be for the big-bodies (mirror or not).