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Author Topic: 24-70.. bite?  (Read 5304 times)

seanleephoto

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24-70.. bite?
« on: June 07, 2011, 08:40:20 AM »
I see that the 24-70 II is coming out soon. I probably won't be able to afford it, but the original 24-70 has dropped in price far enough that its within reach.

MY QUESTION IS: When the 24-70 II comes out, how much do you think  the original 24-70 will drop in price?

Do lenses usually have a fast drop in price when the replacement comes out? Because it seems like the 70-200 2.8 IS didn't drop in price too much even after its predecessor came into the market.

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24-70.. bite?
« on: June 07, 2011, 08:40:20 AM »

dstppy

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2011, 08:56:02 AM »
I see that the 24-70 II is coming out soon. I probably won't be able to afford it, but the original 24-70 has dropped in price far enough that its within reach.

MY QUESTION IS: When the 24-70 II comes out, how much do you think  the original 24-70 will drop in price?

Do lenses usually have a fast drop in price when the replacement comes out? Because it seems like the 70-200 2.8 IS didn't drop in price too much even after its predecessor came into the market.

questions questions questions

I agree with what everyone else just said . . . err, is about to.  Old topic.  Here's the summary:
Rumors are rumors - nothing is announced.
If you need it now, buy it now.

It's an L lens, which means it will always have some photographic value.  It also means that, whereas a replacement will undoubtedly be better, it's rare that a new model (again, not an entry-level lens) will overshadow it's predecessor so much that you will feel compelled to trade up.

That said, do you need it now?
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seanleephoto

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2011, 09:10:32 AM »
well i guess what i'm saying is im going to be getting the current lens anyway, and I'd LIKE it now (i'm going on a trip back to Korea) but will the price drop significantly after the new one comes out? Because I'm assuming the new one will come out with the original price tag (2000+)

dstppy

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #3 on: June 07, 2011, 10:03:40 AM »
well i guess what i'm saying is im going to be getting the current lens anyway, and I'd LIKE it now (i'm going on a trip back to Korea) but will the price drop significantly after the new one comes out? Because I'm assuming the new one will come out with the original price tag (2000+)

I personally don't forsee any of the good lenses (new) taking a price drop right away . . . both from availability and demand.  This will keep the older lenses in demand on the secondary market, so you probably won't be kicking yourself based on that.

Take a look at the lens price over the years, though, it is still about $100 more than it was earlier this year.

CanonDirect has one listed as refurbed . . . honestly if you want it now, that's not a bad price.

What's in your camera bag now?  Is this range/speed covered well already?

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awinphoto

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #4 on: June 07, 2011, 10:16:27 AM »
well i guess what i'm saying is im going to be getting the current lens anyway, and I'd LIKE it now (i'm going on a trip back to Korea) but will the price drop significantly after the new one comes out? Because I'm assuming the new one will come out with the original price tag (2000+)

I personally don't forsee any of the good lenses (new) taking a price drop right away . . . both from availability and demand.  This will keep the older lenses in demand on the secondary market, so you probably won't be kicking yourself based on that.

Take a look at the lens price over the years, though, it is still about $100 more than it was earlier this year.

CanonDirect has one listed as refurbed . . . honestly if you want it now, that's not a bad price.

What's in your camera bag now?  Is this range/speed covered well already?

+1... plus odds are if the new lens DOES come out and is better there's a good chance it will command a higher price (see the 70-200 2.8 IS II) So the current price should be good for the foreseeable future...
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neuroanatomist

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #5 on: June 07, 2011, 11:09:05 AM »
will the price drop significantly after the new one comes out? Because I'm assuming the new one will come out with the original price tag (2000+)

Yes, IF a new one is released (and that's a big IF, since a 24-70 II or IS has been 'coming soon' since 2009), the price tag on the new one will almost certainly be a significant jump from the current version (my guess would be $400-500 more).

The thing is, because the current version will be much cheaper by comparison, there will be no price drop on the current lens (new or used).  In the case of the 70-200mm f/2.8L IS II, the prices on the MkI version of that lens actually went UP after the new version was released, because even a higher price on the older version seemed like a bargain compared to the price tag on the new version. 
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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2011, 12:26:37 PM »
will the price drop significantly after the new one comes out? Because I'm assuming the new one will come out with the original price tag (2000+)

Yes, IF a new one is released (and that's a big IF, since a 24-70 II or IS has been 'coming soon' since 2009), the price tag on the new one will almost certainly be a significant jump from the current version (my guess would be $400-500 more).

The thing is, because the current version will be much cheaper by comparison, there will be no price drop on the current lens (new or used).  In the case of the 70-200mm f/2.8L IS II, the prices on the MkI version of that lens actually went UP after the new version was released, because even a higher price on the older version seemed like a bargain compared to the price tag on the new version.

There is even a possibility that prices will jump a little.  After the 70-200mm f/2.8l came out, prices of the old lens jumped.  It was much less expensive than the new one, so up went used and new prices.

Prices were sinking slowly until the earthquake hit Japan, and will probably start dropping again.

I've bought several used 24-70's in the $600-$800 range, and one new one for under $1000 over the years, but prices have jumped.  I resold all the used ones, and returned the new one, they just did not suit me quality wise, even when manually focused very carefully, the images were good, but not quite matching my 24-105mm L.

I'd be interested in a newer version, but pretty cautious, since I have grown to prefer primes for their wide apertures.  If new cameras manage a 2 stop jump in low light capability, which I doubt very much, I might actually find f/2.8 usable in very low light at fast shutter speeds.

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #6 on: June 07, 2011, 12:26:37 PM »

jcns

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #7 on: June 07, 2011, 01:20:30 PM »
I see that the 24-70 II is coming out soon. I probably won't be able to afford it, but the original 24-70 has dropped in price far enough that its within reach.

MY QUESTION IS: When the 24-70 II comes out, how much do you think  the original 24-70 will drop in price?

Do lenses usually have a fast drop in price when the replacement comes out? Because it seems like the 70-200 2.8 IS didn't drop in price too much even after its predecessor came into the market.

questions questions questions
you can buy a used one and if the price drops, you won't have lost that much money.  If the price increases like the 70-200 28IS MKI, you stand to make a few bucks if decide to sell it.

sb

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #8 on: June 07, 2011, 03:29:14 PM »
I find that when new versions come out, older versions don't drop in price, they just gradually disappear from the market as people buy out remaining copies. New version is almost always more expensive than the predecessor which is why stores have no problem selling older versions at regular price.

If you really like the lens, I would say use the opportunity and get it before Mk2 ends up being the only option out there, and you're stuck having to pay $400 more for it.

neuroanatomist

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2011, 10:47:31 AM »
If you watch the stockmarket prices generally drop BEFORE the announcement because the big investors (and analysts) know it is coming

Same with lenses the prices are dropping now because people expect the new one and want to sell the old inventory (and pro's want to get rid of old design lenses) BEFORE the new ones come out - and the buyers figure out they are older generation lenses

Right idea, wrong reason.  Prices are trending downward across the board now, mainly as a correction to the substantial increases immediately following the earthquake and tsunami.  Since this thread is about the 24-70mm, let's look at that one:



After a rebate, prices usually jump back up to the pre-rebate level (if the rebate actually results in a price decrease, which doesn't always happen).  Instead, the earthquake and tsunami occurred near the end of the rebate period, and insteasd of returning to 'baseline' prices jumped over $100 above that.  A jump of 4-10% occurred for almost all lenses (regardless of rebate).

Now that the situation in Japan is stabilizing and lens production has resumed (albeit not at full capacity and still with interruptions), lenses and bodies are slowly being fed back into the supply chain, and prices are dropping to reflect that.  But, I think it's unlikely they'll return to pre-tsunami levels soon, if ever...
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7enderbender

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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2011, 11:02:51 AM »
I see that the 24-70 II is coming out soon. I probably won't be able to afford it, but the original 24-70 has dropped in price far enough that its within reach.

MY QUESTION IS: When the 24-70 II comes out, how much do you think  the original 24-70 will drop in price?

Do lenses usually have a fast drop in price when the replacement comes out? Because it seems like the 70-200 2.8 IS didn't drop in price too much even after its predecessor came into the market.

questions questions questions

I had that same thought as I'm still thinking of trading my 24-105 for the 24-70. I don't think it'll drop that drastically. It's a great lens and there is demand for it. And it would probably disappear quickly as a new item once the updated version comes out (when ever that is), so the new version would probably be more expensive at first and the used prices shouldn't drastically change.

And there is always the potential that the new version doesn't become a favorite and people start looking for old ones. Let's assume for a second for instance that the new version came with IS then I'd quickly try to still get the current version while still available (either new or in really good shape). But who knows.
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Re: 24-70.. bite?
« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2011, 11:02:51 AM »