*UPDATE* EOS 70D is Coming, The Future of Pro APS-C Will Change

[greger]

70D is Coming, The Future of Pro APS-C Will Change! I read and re read the interview with Masaya Maeda and wonder why I am the only one who sees No 7Dll in the Future because the Future is Full Frame. To get the 1.6 crop it will have to be done on the computer probably using Photoshop. To get the extra reach with a lens it'll have to be with a 1.4 or 2X Extender. This will be possible because the FF sensor will have the resolution to allow this kind of Manipulation of the image. This means that the 70D will almost be what everyone wants in a 7Dll. Canon will do what it wants knowing that as long as the cameras produce quality images that people will buy them. The 7D was the camera that pried open the wallets of 40D users. Canon is going to have to come out in the next 3 years with a camera that pries open the wallets of 7D owners. Masaya says that will be FF. I am hoping for 5Dlll like camera with a $1,500.00 to $2,000.00 price tag.   

[neuroanatomist]

70D is Coming, The Future of Pro APS-C Will Change! I read and re read the interview with Masaya Maeda and wonder why I am the only one who sees No 7Dll in the Future because the Future is Full Frame.

I am hoping for 5Dlll like camera with a $1,500.00 to $2,000.00 price tag.   

So…you're hoping for Canon to release a 5D Mark III-like camera at a price point that is cheaper than the 6D?  That seems pretty unlikely.  "Future" is a long way off in this scenario, IMO.

[insanitybeard]

70D is Coming, The Future of Pro APS-C Will Change! I read and re read the interview with Masaya Maeda and wonder why I am the only one who sees No 7Dll in the Future because the Future is Full Frame. To get the 1.6 crop it will have to be done on the computer probably using Photoshop. To get the extra reach with a lens it'll have to be with a 1.4 or 2X Extender. This will be possible because the FF sensor will have the resolution to allow this kind of Manipulation of the image. This means that the 70D will almost be what everyone wants in a 7Dll. Canon will do what it wants knowing that as long as the cameras produce quality images that people will buy them. The 7D was the camera that pried open the wallets of 40D users. Canon is going to have to come out in the next 3 years with a camera that pries open the wallets of 7D owners. Masaya says that will be FF. I am hoping for 5Dlll like camera with a $1,500.00 to $2,000.00 price tag.   

Well, depending on who you believe Canon are starting to lag behind a little in the image quality department in SOME areas. Being that the 7D has been a very popular camera for hobbyists as well as pros, it seems to me it would be quite a gamble on Canon's part to force current 7D owners to spend a lot more money on a FF replacement. The 6D cannot be called a FF replacement to the 7D, I think that the 5D MK3 fits that bill and in the UK at the present time costs over double the 7D. Would Canon risk losing that segment of the market? It doesn't quite make sense to me.

[Don Haines]

70D is Coming, The Future of Pro APS-C Will Change! I read and re read the interview with Masaya Maeda and wonder why I am the only one who sees No 7Dll in the Future because the Future is Full Frame. To get the 1.6 crop it will have to be done on the computer probably using Photoshop. To get the extra reach with a lens it'll have to be with a 1.4 or 2X Extender. This will be possible because the FF sensor will have the resolution to allow this kind of Manipulation of the image. This means that the 70D will almost be what everyone wants in a 7Dll. Canon will do what it wants knowing that as long as the cameras produce quality images that people will buy them. The 7D was the camera that pried open the wallets of 40D users. Canon is going to have to come out in the next 3 years with a camera that pries open the wallets of 7D owners. Masaya says that will be FF. I am hoping for 5Dlll like camera with a $1,500.00 to $2,000.00 price tag.   

Well, depending on who you believe Canon are starting to lag behind a little in the image quality department in SOME areas. Being that the 7D has been a very popular camera for hobbyists as well as pros, it seems to me it would be quite a gamble on Canon's part to force current 7D owners to spend a lot more money on a FF replacement. The 6D cannot be called a FF replacement to the 7D, I think that the 5D MK3 fits that bill and in the UK at the present time costs over double the 7D. Would Canon risk losing that segment of the market? It doesn't quite make sense to me.

What if he really means that the future of APS-C will change because FF is on the way out We can read whatever we want into a short clip from an interview conducted in another language.... This is a rumour site, it is speculation.... nothing more, nothing less. He did not say the future of APS-C is dead, he said it will change.

The APS-C cameras sell very well. In general, smaller cameras sell very well. Look at micro 4/3.... you can even say that mirrorless cameras sell very well.

I think that the future of APS-C is mirrorless. What happens if focusing can be done very accuratley and quickly on the sensor? What happens when EVF's evolve to the point where delay is minimal and you can start modifying the image presented on them to enhance the view beyond what glass and mirrors can do? Those are the two big hurdles that you need to get past to have a great mirrorless camera. Add in new sensor technology for greater iq and/or ISO performance and you would have a kick-ass camera.... and these three developements are getting close....

What if the 7D2 is a mirrorless camera that beats all the specs of the 7? That would truly change the future of APS-C.

[CarlTN]

What if the 7D2 is a mirrorless camera that beats all the specs of the 7? That would truly change the future of APS-C.

Neuro and all of you, excellent points.

Don, I would find this last statement to maybe be the most surprising of all the speculation.  A 7D replacement with sensor based AF that outperforms the 7D in every way?  So Canon is going to go from not really using this technology at all, to introducing a new product using it, which surpasses Sony's efforts like they are standing still?  If that did happen, most would complain about the loss of a mirror and true viewfinder.  But everyone would tremble in fear of Canon's advancement out of nowhere.  I would bet heavily this won't be happening.  I.e., if such a camera intended as replacement for the 7D gets released soon, or this year...it most certainly will not outperform the current (and now very old) 7D's autofocus ability.

A mirrorless 7D replacement?  I don't see it.  A mirrorless EOS-M replacement or upgrade?  Of course.  EOS M replacement still using the same, 5 year old sensor?  Most assuredly.

[Sporgon]

Imagine trying to follow the kind of action that the 7D thrives on with an EVF 

[Don Haines]

What if the 7D2 is a mirrorless camera that beats all the specs of the 7? That would truly change the future of APS-C.

Neuro and all of you, excellent points.

Don, I would find this last statement to maybe be the most surprising of all the speculation.  A 7D replacement with sensor based AF that outperforms the 7D in every way?  So Canon is going to go from not really using this technology at all, to introducing a new product using it, which surpasses Sony's efforts like they are standing still?  If that did happen, most would complain about the loss of a mirror and true viewfinder.  But everyone would tremble in fear of Canon's advancement out of nowhere.  I would bet heavily this won't be happening.  I.e., if such a camera intended as replacement for the 7D gets released soon, or this year...it most certainly will not outperform the current (and now very old) 7D's autofocus ability.

A mirrorless 7D replacement?  I don't see it.  A mirrorless EOS-M replacement or upgrade?  Of course.  EOS M replacement still using the same, 5 year old sensor?  Most assuredly.

I can see it happening..... but not soon. Who knows what prompted the "future will change" comment? It could be something radical.... not an incremental improvement. Everyone expects pixel densities to climb, ISO performance to improve, noise reduction to improve, and manufacturing methods keep getting better and ic's get made with narrower and narrow processes. None of this should cause  the "future is going to change" comment, it's got to be something different.

Right now there are some darn fine mirrorless cameras out there that beat the 7D for almost everything except focus speed/accuracy and decent glass to hang off of the camera.... It could happen.... I'd bet not soon, but as long as we are wildly speculating based on a tiny shred of evidence, why not make it a really wild guess?

[wickidwombat]

70D is Coming, The Future of Pro APS-C Will Change! I read and re read the interview with Masaya Maeda and wonder why I am the only one who sees No 7Dll in the Future because the Future is Full Frame.

I am hoping for 5Dlll like camera with a $1,500.00 to $2,000.00 price tag.   

So…you're hoping for Canon to release a 5D Mark III-like camera at a price point that is cheaper than the 6D?  That seems pretty unlikely.  "Future" is a long way off in this scenario, IMO.

no there will be a 5Dmk3 like camera in that price range...


when the 5Dmk4 comes out the 5Dmk3 will be in that range

[CarlTN]

Right now there are some darn fine mirrorless cameras out there that beat the 7D for almost everything except focus speed/accuracy and decent glass to hang off of the camera.... It could happen.... I'd bet not soon, but as long as we are wildly speculating based on a tiny shred of evidence, why not make it a really wild guess?

Why not make a really wild guess?  Well your guess is wilder than my expressed wish that they abandon 1.6x and go 1.47x, or whatever the image circle will tolerate.  And yet I got told "oh that won't happen, that can't happen, you're wrong".  I wasn't even predicting it would happen, only suggesting that it should happen.  Because the sensor needs to be as big as possible, and still work with the aps-c image circle.  I mentioned 1.47x, because I feel Nikon's image circle isn't all that tight on the corners of the sensor.  If it were, there would already be a noticable tad of corner vignetting, and there isn't. 

I'm talking about a sensor that is probably less than 0.70mm bigger, along the diagonal, than Nikon-Sony's.  So I say it is possible.  For that matter, why do we need to keep the 3:2 aspect?  Why not go 7:5 aspect?  7:5 is by far the best compromise of all the sensor aspects...4:3 is too square, doesn't use enough of the image circle's width at wide angle.  Or best of all, why not a multi-aspect sensor, that truly makes use of the image circle?

I'm not sure the future includes sensor-based autofocus that is equal or superior to separate AF-sensor-phase based.  If the future was heading in that direction, we would have seen some element of it on the 1Dx or D4.  Whatever Sony does with it, I can't say.  I know they're using a transparent mirror for their top aps-c camera, even now, are they not?  Does the future include transparent mirrors?  You're suggesting those will get leapfrogged in favor of on-imaging-sensor-based phase AF, correct?  In the far future, sure I think it's possible.  In 5 or 6 years maybe?

Lacking focus speed accuracy and "decent glass to hang off the camera", are kind of like lacking electricity...But are you referring to a Sony body, or a M4/3 body?  (Surely you're not referring to a mirrorless Nikon body??)  Because I don't see any M4/3 body matching the 7D currently.  What beats the 7D now, sensor wise, are the D7000 and D5200, and perhaps a Sony body, even possibly the Nex 7?   

[Don Haines]

Because I don't see any M4/3 body matching the 7D currently.  What beats the 7D now, sensor wise, are the D7000 and D5200, and perhaps a Sony body, even possibly the Nex 7?

Add the OMD-EM-5 into the pile. Despite the smaller sensor, it beats the Canon APS-C cameras for IQ and low light performance..... not by very much, but it does. One of my co-workers brought one in and we experimented with a 7D, 60D, and the EM-5... the EM-5 shot better in low light and about the same in good light as the two Canons. BTW, both Canons focused better.

[Don Haines]

So Canon is going to go from not really using this technology at all, to introducing a new product using it, which surpasses Sony's efforts like they are standing still?

Actually, the bulk of Canon cameras are mirrorless..... only the DSLR's are not. Mirrorless focusing is tried and true..... not as good as with the seperate sensor on the DSLR's, but much faster and more accurate than it used to be.

What if they do come up with a method for mirrorless focusing that is as good as the seperate sensor and mirrors of a DSLR? Would we revolt and say "but that's not the way it used to be", or would we say "that works better"? I remember the good old days when people said that digital would never be as good as film...... and now you can do so much more with digital than you ever dreamed of with film.

The mirror is a holdout from the days of film, when you had to look through the lens to see what you were pointed at and how to focus. If you can get rid of the mirror you get rid of a lot of mechanical components and motors, and you get rid of mirror shake. I'm sure that they are working on it....

[CarlTN]

Don, I agree, the bulk of their cameras are mirrorless, because they're compact cameras.

However, I happen to like looking through a mirror and pentaprism.  Not that this is a fair comparison, but are electronic viewfinders going to replace the roof prism in high end binoculars too?  Last year I compared a lot of them, they're all a little different.  I didn't buy any of the "alpha class", but I did compare them.  One of the ones I bought was a lot cheaper, and actually had more contrast than a Swarovski...however it was the 2009 Swaro, and not the new one...they didn't have any new ones. 

Regarding the Olympus, I do find that interesting.  It is the same size sensor as 4/3, the "2x crop" with 4:3 aspect, right?  Like, at what ISO settings did it pull ahead of the 7D, etc?  I'm certainly not trying to say the 7D is some kind of mountain king...I don't even own one myself.  However, if the price for a new, non-refurb body somehow falls to the $700 range, I might succumb to buying one...regardless of whatever other FF body I decide on (I need to sell at least one pair of bino's, and a small telescope first).

I admit, the new Olympus body looks cool.  I once considered trying to study industrial design, back before all my dreams were crushed, and half my life got wasted away.  Also wanted to design "the next Porsche".  I dreamed pretty big as a kid.  They did see my design...I sent it to them.  This was 1989...I digress again.  I guess I'm just citing an example of using imagination.  My dreams weren't very realistic, but I took the chance anyway.

Oh, and regarding other unrealistic dreams...I mentioned in another thread, about my dream lens.  Some kind of really fast zoom, like a 60-115 f/0.8.  Maybe it's not even possible to build something like that without severe aberrations and vignetting...but what if it were possible?  Of course, it would be expensive.  I just...would absolutely love to shoot shallow DOF wildlife at sunset with something like that.  A companion lens could be a fixed focal length, 165 mm f/1.0...

[Don Haines]

Don, I agree, the bulk of their cameras are mirrorless, because they're compact cameras.

However, I happen to like looking through a mirror and pentaprism.  Not that this is a fair comparison, but are electronic viewfinders going to replace the roof prism in high end binoculars too?  Last year I compared a lot of them, they're all a little different.  I didn't buy any of the "alpha class", but I did compare them.  One of the ones I bought was a lot cheaper, and actually had more contrast than a Swarovski...however it was the 2009 Swaro, and not the new one...they didn't have any new ones. 

Interesting.... I never thought about binoculars.... mine are completely optical.... no electronics.... but I could really see how things like IS could shake up the world (no pun intended). I have a 15 power pair and you need to use a tripod or a tree to see things at night without too much shaking. In the daytime the eyes can compensate, but not at night.

As to EVF's.... I haven't seen one that I like as much as an optical viewfinder... but I have not seen the good ones. I really don't know how they stand in comparison

[CarlTN]

I apologize to anyone else, I guess we have gotten a tad off topic.

Don...You mean the Olympus doesn't use an EVF, or do you mean the one it has "isn't a good one"?  I should know this already, sorry.

Interesting you mention IS with binoculars, Canon and a few others have had IS binoculars for years.  I've not tried them, although I have read they are superb. No electronic viewfinder needed.  One of them is a 15x50, I believe.  Priced over $1k.  Still cheaper than Swarovski.

The ones I wound up buying are all roof prism, an 8x32, 8.5 x 45, and a 12 x 60.  The largest of these was made in Japan, the others were made in China by competing companies...one a Vortex, the other a Vanguard.  I also have had a mid 1990's Celestron 15x80 for a long time, which I love, but they are only practical for tripod use.

[jrista]

The mirror is a holdout from the days of film, when you had to look through the lens to see what you were pointed at and how to focus. If you can get rid of the mirror you get rid of a lot of mechanical components and motors, and you get rid of mirror shake. I'm sure that they are working on it....

Except for the fact that optical viewfinders are still vastly superior to electronic viewfinders. I already wrote this up in another thread here, but basically the BARE MINIMUM pixel density you need for an EVF to be crystal clear (no pixelation) is 5000ppi, with over 12,000ppi necessary to support people with 20/10 vision (such as myself.) Dynamic range is also lacking. Low-light performance is highly dependent on the image sensor, which is no where near as good as the human eye in low light. I can spend a few minutes letting my eyes adjust to the dark and see a billion stars in the sky...an EVF? Maybe a few...the brightest of the bright...riddled by noise from the sensor as it's jacked up to ISO 25600.

A mirror is an essential factor in getting the best viewfinder humanly possible, utilizing the best low-light sensor we can get our hands on....the human eye. I'll hold onto my DSLR with its clunky mirror box until the end of time, when I'm a desiccated husk of paper-thin dried flesh encasing a tomb of dust, before I move to an EVF (or maybe possibly, when image sensors have reached 100% Q.E. and are capable of a couple million ISO...yet even then, my eyes are a hell of a lot clearer with far more dynamic range than an image sensor could ever hope to be at ISO 1,638,400).