why????

[pdirestajr]

recon,

I tend to think that crop will fade as full-frame begins to regain it's natural place in the scheme of things. For that reason I would not be tempted to spend large sums on lenses that will only fit crop framers. I currently use a 30D, but all my lenses are "L" EF for that reason. Even a "35mm" full frame is tiny compared to "proper" medium or large format cameras.

I disagree with the thought of the crop sensor cameras going away any time soon. The average consumer who buys an entry level "Rebel" (or other brand) DSLR has no idea of the sensor size, nor cares. They just want a camera with a zoom lens that takes nice photos, a camera that will last for a while & they can grow with. Why would all the camera manufactures move away from this market. This is where ALL (majority) of their profits come from- it also helps pay for the R&D on the pro level tech, that eventually trickles down to the consumer level. It's a beautiful cycle, why end it?

[neuroanatomist]

I disagree with the thought of the crop sensor cameras going away any time soon.

10 year flashback - remember all those folks who said film cameras would never go away?  Granted, they're not completely gone, yet.  But then, there are still some people using rotary phones, and I'm sure you can find a working teletype or two somewhere in the world.

When (becuase it's not 'if' it's 'when') full frame sensor cameras drop down into the sub-$1000 range and thus into the mainstream consumer price range, APS-C will die off.  EF-S lenses?  They'll just join FD's on the auction block.

[unfocused]

I disagree with the thought of the crop sensor cameras going away any time soon.

Absolutely correct.

When (becuase it's not 'if' it's 'when') full frame sensor cameras drop down into the sub-$1000 range and thus into the mainstream consumer price range, APS-C will die off.

What evidence can you possibly point to that would indicate that full frame sensor cameras are going to drop below $1,000 in price?

It takes much less imagination and there is much more evidence to support the opposite conclusion: when the rapidly narrowing gap between APS-C and full-frame sensor quality becomes virtually indistinguishable full frame sensor cameras will go the way of 8x10 view cameras, 4x5 Speed Graphics and Rolleiflexes.

Now, don't get your panties in a bunch. I'm not suggesting that full-frame will become obsolete in the next two-three years. I'm just saying that there is more evidence to support that conclusion than the idea you're suggesting.

There is absolutely no objective reason to think that APS-C is going anywhere, or at least that it is going to be done in by an older and more expensive format. All the trends point toward shrinking, not growing, sensor size technology. (And, for those protesting that full frame will always be better quality than APS-C...well...junkyards are full of technologies that were better quality, while "good enough" technology laughs all the way to the bank.)

I would certainly hesitate to predict what cameras and lenses will be like in a decade. Perhaps the SLR with its interchangeable lenses will still be around, but it's entirely possible that we'll all be carrying around tablets that zoom digitally with resolution far beyond anything that can be found in either full-frame or APS-C cameras today.

Instead of this goofy "I've got a bigger sensor than you" discussion let's get back to the OP's original point.

To the OP: I'm not sure about the specific lens you suggest, but I certainly agree that the Canon lens division has not done justice to the APS-C market. They've left the innovation to third parties who are poaching customers.

The three higher quality APS-C lenses that Canon makes all have their problems. The 10-22mm and the 15-85mm are too slow. The 17-55mm is better at 2.8, but it's neither wide enough at the short end nor long enough at the long end. (I'm hoping they come through with a 15-65 mm 2.8, which would be a killer lens)

I'm generally a defender of Canon, but I am really having some doubts about their lens division. I'm just not sure it shares the same vision as the rest of the SLR unit. Seriously, look at the lenses they've chosen to introduce over the past few years: updates of massive supertelephotos that fill a tiny niche market, a nice quality 70-300 mm L zoom that the jury is still out on whether there is any market for it; a specialty fisheye zoom that also fits a narrow niche audience and which they can't even seem to bring to market anyway.

In the meantime the SLR division brought out the 7D and 60D, two higher-end APS-C bodies, and aside from the 15-85 mm zoom, there have been no corresponding lenses released.

Imagine the sales jump they'd have if they introduced an EF-S 100-400mm f4? Lighter, faster and about the same price as the current full frame 100-400. Sports and wildlife photographers would be lining up to buy that lens and 7D combination. (Now before all the nitpickers start picking away, this is only an example of the creative options that the lens division could be following if they were to get with the EF-S program like their SLR brethren have gotten with the crop sensor program.)

I have to wonder if the lens division needs more forward-thinking management.

[awinphoto]

I disagree with the thought of the crop sensor cameras going away any time soon.

10 year flashback - remember all those folks who said film cameras would never go away?  Granted, they're not completely gone, yet.  But then, there are still some people using rotary phones, and I'm sure you can find a working teletype or two somewhere in the world.

When (becuase it's not 'if' it's 'when') full frame sensor cameras drop down into the sub-$1000 range and thus into the mainstream consumer price range, APS-C will die off.  EF-S lenses?  They'll just join FD's on the auction block.

While I would wish and hope that full frame sensors become the norm and drop sub $1000, i just have the feeling that wont be for another 5-10 years... The cheapest full frame camera now is what?  $2500?  Well, correction, NEW full frame camera disregarding the used market.  With the increased MP and technology going into these sensors, I would think that they would have to either dumb down a full frame sensor to go into a rebel or really cripple the featureset more than it already is to afford to justify putting a full frame sensor in... perhaps full auto with just a shutter button?  All kidding aside I cant see that happening.  I could see the 7D and xxD series getting the change before entry level... at least they could then justify price increases in market prices, but until then...

[WarStreet]

Since I am coming from the future, I can tell what's going to happen. Cameras will continue to improve in features, and decrease in price. The lowest priced cameras might see small price decrease, but the higher end, will get a bigger price decrease. Most features needed will be present even on the cheap cameras and in-between models like the xxD won't exist anymore. Today it is a big deal to get GPS in camera, in the near future, it will be built-in as standard for all cameras. FPS will reach limits were very few will care. AF once delivering what is needed for most users, there is little point to spend lots of money for a small improvement and the same goes for image quality. So, FF cameras will improve and decrease in price.

What else going to happen ? Cameras will advance such a way that they will get AI, start taking photos by themselves, and eventually they will take control of the world, and enslave human beings 

[neuroanatomist]

What evidence can you possibly point to that would indicate that full frame sensor cameras are going to drop below $1,000 in price?

History?  What does a Canon APS-H camera cost these days?  $5K.  What did one cost in 1998?  $28K, which is actually close to $40K when adjusted for inflation.

All the trends point toward shrinking, not growing, sensor size technology.

Well, except for that pesky bit about optics where DoF scales inversely with sensor size.  Sometimes bigger is better.

Imagine the sales jump they'd have if they introduced an EF-S 100-400mm f4? Lighter, faster and about the same price as the current full frame 100-400. Sports and wildlife photographers would be lining up to buy that lens and 7D combination. (Now before all the nitpickers start picking away, this is only an example of the creative options that the lens division could be following if they were to get with the EF-S program like their SLR brethren have gotten with the crop sensor program.)

I imagine that sales would not come anywhere near even breaking even on the R&D costs, and that such a lens would be a huge loss for Canon, which is why the lens division is not even considering it.  The advantages of a smaller image circle are substantially reduced at longer focal lengths.  Canon doesn't make a 'fast' telephoto prime or zoom for comparison, but thinking outside the box a little, let's compare the Canon 300mm f/4L IS to the Pentax Pentax DA* 300mm f/4 (the latter being an APS-C telephoto lens with weather sealing, high-end coatings including fluorine on the front like the newest Canon lenses, low-dispersion glass, etc.).  The APS-C-format lens is just 10% lighter, and still uses 77mm filters. 

But you're not even proposing 300mm f/4, you're proposing 400mm f/4.  A smaller image circle doesn't change the basic optical necessity that f-number equals focal length divided by iris diaphragm diameter.  A hypothetical EF-S 100-400mm f/4 would need to achieve a 100mm diameter iris diaphragm, compared to only 71.4mm for the current current 100-400mm.  A 100mm aperture means a need for optical elements that are sized to match.  That's going to make your proposed lens a LOT heavier than the current 100-400mm, and almost certainly more expensive, too.  It would end up being a lot closer in size (and cost) to the forthcoming 200-400mm f/4 (sans integrated TC, which isn't adding much weight or cost, relatively speaking), than to the current 100-400mm.  How long do you think those lines would be for a >$5000 EF-S lens?  Short.  Very short.

[awinphoto]

What else going to happen ? Cameras will advance such a way that they will get AI, start taking photos by themselves, and eventually they will take control of the world, and enslave human beings 

Well in that case it better program my DVR and have my coffee ready for me in the morning when I wake up.  Also if it can read my mind to auto focus for me and shoot the camera when i think it.  =)  I'm sure prices will drop but not as fast as anyone would want... case in point the Canon 1ds and Canon 1D, when they first came out in the early 2000's, they were pretty much at the same price point as they are now.  They have not dropped in price compared to current offerings at all.  We are getting at almost a decade since those cameras graced the scene and we haven't seen price drops in the top tier cameras.  5D series and the xxd series arguably have dropped a few hundred here or there but sure enough when a new camera is ready to be released everyone speculates how high the new prices will go up, hence people on this forum speculating the 5d m3 will go up due to new technology with some saying it could be a few hundred to 1000 more.  I hope it stays at the current price or drops in price, but that's me wishing for too much.  =)

[WarStreet]

5D series and the xxd series arguably have dropped a few hundred here or there but sure enough when a new camera is ready to be released everyone speculates how high the new prices will go up, hence people on this forum speculating the 5d m3 will go up due to new technology with some saying it could be a few hundred to 1000 more.  I hope it stays at the current price or drops in price, but that's me wishing for too much.  =)

The 5DIII, will get similar launch price to the 5DII launch price, with small price difference. I think there is a bigger possibility of a small price decrease rather an increase. Exchange rate can effect the price too.

It is true that prices are not decreasing in such a fast rate, but the price decrease are not necessary going to happen gradually. They can occur by model re-positioning such as 60D, or new models such as 5D. Then these lower spec cameras will just continue to improve, such as the 5DII and the future 5DIII. We are expecting the 5DIII to have a better image quality than the old 1DsIII, with good enough AF and FPS. By time maybe the 5D series will get 100% viewfinder, 1Ds weather sealing, and eventually we will end up with a 5D being better than the old 1Ds but with the price of the 5D. I consider this as a price decrease. 

[awinphoto]

5D series and the xxd series arguably have dropped a few hundred here or there but sure enough when a new camera is ready to be released everyone speculates how high the new prices will go up, hence people on this forum speculating the 5d m3 will go up due to new technology with some saying it could be a few hundred to 1000 more.  I hope it stays at the current price or drops in price, but that's me wishing for too much.  =)

The 5DIII, will get similar launch price to the 5DII launch price, with small price difference. I think there is a bigger possibility of a small price decrease rather an increase. Exchange rate can effect the price too.

It is true that prices are not decreasing in such a fast rate, but the price decrease are not necessary going to happen gradually. They can occur by model re-positioning such as 60D, or new models such as 5D. Then these lower spec cameras will just continue to improve, such as the 5DII and the future 5DIII. We are expecting the 5DIII to have a better image quality than the old 1DsIII, with good enough AF and FPS. By time maybe the 5D series will get 100% viewfinder, 1Ds weather sealing, and eventually we will end up with a 5D being better than the old 1Ds but with the price of the 5D. I consider this as a price decrease.

Believe me when I say i am holding my breath on such a camera.  I have the funding set aside and while I would prefer to hold off until a 5d 3, if i dont see any camera POSSIBILITY within the next quarter, I may have to get a mark II and unload it when the mark III comes out...

[neuroanatomist]

It is true that prices are not decreasing in such a fast rate, but the price decrease are not necessary going to happen gradually. They can occur by model re-positioning such as 60D, or new models such as 5D...

That's what I'm getting at.  I'm not proposing we'll see a sub-$1K 1-series or 5D MkVI or the like.  But the original 5D was a paradigm shift - an 'affordable' FF camera.  It's all relative, of course.  At the time of it's release, the typical consumer would not have considered $3200 for a camera as something 'affordable,' but compared to the cost of a 1Ds body, it was downright cheap.  The 5DII is around 1/3 of the cost of the 1DsIII, yet they use the same sensor, albeit an expensive one.  A T2i/550D is around 1/3 the cost of a 7D, again, same sensor.  As technology improves and wafer material and stamping costs are driven downwards, it seems logical for Canon to push out another paradigm shift - an affordable-er FF camera, with a FF sensor in an xxxD-type body.

[WarStreet]

Believe me when I say i am holding my breath on such a camera.  I have the funding set aside and while I would prefer to hold off until a 5d 3, if i dont see any camera POSSIBILITY within the next quarter, I may have to get a mark II and unload it when the mark III comes out...

Since I am not a pro I have the luxury to wait. In your case, you will have to do some gain/loss evaluations by getting the 5DII and sell it later. I doubt we will see a 5DIII in the next quarter, but we might get an announcement. Monitoring Nikon should help us find out more about the 5DIII expectations and release dates. I expect an announcement and maybe even a release of the D700 replacement within this year. But this is just an educated guess, nothing more.

[awinphoto]

Believe me when I say i am holding my breath on such a camera.  I have the funding set aside and while I would prefer to hold off until a 5d 3, if i dont see any camera POSSIBILITY within the next quarter, I may have to get a mark II and unload it when the mark III comes out...

Since I am not a pro I have the luxury to wait. In your case, you will have to do some gain/loss evaluations by getting the 5DII and sell it later. I doubt we will see a 5DIII in the next quarter, but we might get an announcement. Monitoring Nikon should help us find out more about the 5DIII expectations and release dates. I expect an announcement and maybe even a release of the D700 replacement within this year. But this is just an educated guess, nothing more.

I do shoot professionally and as of right now, my 7D is quite serviceable for 99% of all my clients needs right now.  Switching to the 5D would be more of a personal preference because of the full frame sensor and the little bit more ISO/IQ i'd get from such a camera.  In the time being i also have CPS in my back pocket to get loaners of 5d's and 1d's if and when a shoot pops up in which i need that camera... I can wait longer if needed, I just wish canon will "show their cards" soon. 

[AJ]

I agree with you, Unfocused, that APSC isn't going away.  It's the new 35 mm.  Quality is good enough for most folks including myself.

I'm generally a defender of Canon, but I am really having some doubts about their lens division. I'm just not sure it shares the same vision as the rest of the SLR unit. Seriously, look at the lenses they've chosen to introduce over the past few years: updates of massive supertelephotos that fill a tiny niche market, a nice quality 70-300 mm L zoom that the jury is still out on whether there is any market for it; a specialty fisheye zoom that also fits a narrow niche audience and which they can't even seem to bring to market anyway.

In the meantime the SLR division brought out the 7D and 60D, two higher-end APS-C bodies, and aside from the 15-85 mm zoom, there have been no corresponding lenses released.

Imagine the sales jump they'd have if they introduced an EF-S 100-400mm f4? Lighter, faster and about the same price as the current full frame 100-400. Sports and wildlife photographers would be lining up to buy that lens and 7D combination. (Now before all the nitpickers start picking away, this is only an example of the creative options that the lens division could be following if they were to get with the EF-S program like their SLR brethren have gotten with the crop sensor program.)

I have to wonder if the lens division needs more forward-thinking management.

Well they did put out a few consumer zooms like 18-135 and 18-200.  Yawn.  The 60/2.8 macro is pretty nice though.  Goes to show that Canon aren't opposed in principle to EF-S primes.

Still sorely missing is a cheapo 30/1.8  Hello, paging Canon?  Must counter Nikon on this??

17-55/2.8 IS is a nice lens but it's hideously overpriced.  It should be around 700 bucks.  I'm thinking about selling mine.

Now that Tokina and Sigma have discontinued their 55-135/2.8 and 55-150/2.8 respectively (OS version on the way supposedly) there's a gaping hole out there for a quality 55-something portrait zoom lens.  IMO an EF-S 55-135/2.8 IS is sorely needed.  And this lens shouldn't cost more than 1200 bucks.

FWIW, 100-400/4 would have a 100 mm front element regardless of its imaging circle.  Huge size+price jump.  Sigma's new 120-300/2.8 OS has more than a few folks salivating though.  Now there's a sports+nature lens.

[Haydn1971]

The key advantage of crop vs full frame is the size of the camera product, the full frame currenly requires a larger body to accommodate in the larger sensor.  I'm sure there are technical fixes to this issue as used in the M9, but will the Leica solution work in a Canon product with EF lenses ? 

I'm half expecting a mix of full frame and crop products, I've said before that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a high end 1.6x crop sensor 1D model, nor would I be surprised to see some form of tech cascade, drop a new sensor in the 1D/5D ranges, then perhaps a 9D with the current full frame sensor - why drop a successful sensor when it's possibly costing a fraction of the original amount to product after moving from say a 200mm wafer to a 300mm ?

I wouldn't be surprised either, if Canon introduced a smaller sensor format for the entry level rebels, 2x even 3x crop would yield many more sensors from a wafer.  today's tech could well squeeze IQ to the levels of APS-C of just a few years ago - as said above, it doesn't have to be great at the entry level Rebel price, just good enough to match the competitors on IQ and price.

[neuroanatomist]

The key advantage of crop vs full frame is the size of the camera product, the full frame currenly requires a larger body to accommodate in the larger sensor.

The key advantage of crop vs. FF is that the sensors are cheaper to produce, and thus the bodies are less expensive.  My 5DII is pretty much the same size as my 7D. 

I wouldn't be surprised either, if Canon introduced a smaller sensor format for the entry level rebels, 2x even 3x crop would yield many more sensors from a wafer.

With a new lens lineup, too - I propose EF-ES, for electro-focus even-shorter back focus.