1DX Replacement

[bdunbar79]

Why are we all assuming that a new high MP body will be a 1-Series.  Could it not be a 5-Series?  5Dx perhaps?

I'm going 3-series.  Ok ok ok ok ok, I admit.  I'm still an EOS-3 junkie .

[RS2021]

Why are we all assuming that a new high MP body will be a 1-Series.  Could it not be a 5-Series?  5Dx perhaps?

I'm going 3-series.  Ok ok ok ok ok, I admit.  I'm still an EOS-3 junkie .

I have no objection to that... Canon can cripple it significantly and bring the price down to $4000 or so...3D or 4D.

However, I vaguely remember their product line "pyramid" photo that was circulating a while ago where, if I remember well, they depicted two top tier cameras ...one slot persumably was taken up by 1DX and the other was left empty with an arrow pointing toward it from the bottom of the pyramid...

So that made me lean toward the 1DsX...but I suppose a high MP could be slotted in between 1DX and 5D3 as well....will keep the price down and Canon can make it primarily a high MP body without all the bells and whistles.

[RS2021]

Whatever the high MP body is eventually called, I know there is an expectant fan base for it in the rumor sites and the landscape crowd...but as making money in landscape with 35mm format is one of the hardest venues in paid photography, most pros may not be clamoring for it... fanboys will...and I don't begrudge them. It is not my thing, but hey, If you are a hobbyist, and seeing that pebble in the mountain side at 3 miles titillates you... go for it!

So eventually Canon may tip a nod to the fanboys and deliver a high MP body with low fps as a response to D800... with lower end or middle of the road features thus reducing the price and selling more units.

But somehow I doubt many pro's are waiting breathlessly till this high MP body is released...they would much rather have the pro-friendly features the 1Dx already offers.

[dolina]

You guys are running under the assumption that CR's rumors are 100% accurate. 

Whether it be the 1Ds X or 1DX Mark 2 it doesn't matter. There will be a new double gripped body for the Winter Games and World Cup of 2014 per product cylce. 


It is like that CR2 rumor on the replacement of the 200/2 and 800/5.6.

These two lenses were announced in mid-2007 and shipped mid-2008. That is 6 years ago! I agree these will be replaced eventually but not within the next 36 months.

CR points to Nikon offering a 200/2 VR2 and the yet to be shipped 800/5.6 VR but both these lenses are not lighter or offer better USM or IS than Canon. In fact the Nikon equivalents are still heavier even if they are newer. They MAY offer better optical performance but who will buy the 800/5.6 IS II exceeding the price of the 800/5.6 VR? I could imagine a $20,000 asking price if this were to happen.

Sure they do not have the optical coating but there is no urgent need to update either lenses as these are slow slow sellers.

I can even point to a litany of other L and non-L EF lenses that badly need an update. Canon's time is better spent updating mainstream lenses and not gear that requires a princely sum.

I am also confident that a 7D replacement will be happening this year.

[distant.star]

.
I think you're living in a fantasy land if you think there will be a 1DX replacement anytime in the next three years, if ever. I'm on record that it's the last top end, professional, conventional DSLR Canon will ever produce. To the extent it is upgraded, that will happen through code -- firmware.

The 1DX is so advanced at this point there is little they could realistically improve upon. What can they possibly offer that will induce high-end stills shooters to dump their $7K camera for a new $9K camera? Combine that with quickly changing technologies, and the industry is simply going in another direction altogether. Five years from now the 1DX will still be the top still camera with video capability.

The future will be video cameras with stills capability. A whole different world is emerging.

[dolina]

According to the press release from Canon USA and Canon UK the 1DX replaces both the 1D4 and 1Ds3.

The 1-Series primary market is the photo news agencies like AP, Reuters, EPA, SI and other related outfits. Everyone else is essentially secondary.

Because of the hypercompetitive nature of the news business upgrades are done often.

Businesses who find the 1-Series beyond their budget have the option of the 5 or 7 Series bodies.

The upgrade cycles I have mentioned earlier are verifiable and factual. All counterpoints I have read so far are solely based on rumors published on CR. Yes, CR's posts are somewhat accurate but only for those products & services that were released within 24-48 hours after the rumor has been published. Once that lapses the rumor is just talk for gearheads to ramble about.

It is easy to be put on record when using a handle or pseudonym.

In terms of sales volume the 1-Series represents 1% of all EOS bodies made. So the pricing and features are for the 1%.

Anyhow, I am just rumormongering on inanimate objects. Those who are looking to upgrade like myself should take my posts into consideration if they want the latest and greatest.

What I hate most is buying really expensive gear then in less than 6 months a replacement will be announced to be shipped to your door step 3 months later.

Below are the product announcement pages from DPReview of all the 1D body generations.

EOS-1D X http://www.dpreview.com/news/2011/10/18/canoneos1dx
17 months as of today
EOS-1D Mark IV http://www.dpreview.com/news/2009/10/20/canon1d4
24 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark III http://www.dpreview.com/news/2007/2/22/canoneos1dmarkiii
32 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark II N http://www.dpreview.com/news/2005/8/22/canoneos1dmkiin
16 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark II http://www.dpreview.com/news/2004/1/29/canoneos1dmkii
28 months before replacement
EOS-1D http://www.dpreview.com/news/2001/9/26/canoneos1d

Below are the product announcement pages from DPReview of all the 1Ds body generations. As earlier mentioned the 1D X is the successor of the 1Ds Mark III per Canon USA and UK press release.

EOS-1D X http://www.dpreview.com/news/2011/10/18/canoneos1dx
50 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds Mark III http://www.dpreview.com/news/2007/8/20/canoneos1dsmarkiii
35 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds Mark II http://www.dpreview.com/news/2004/9/21/canoneos1dsmkii
24 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds http://www.dpreview.com/news/2002/9/23/canoneos1ds

Based on the above product cycle duration here are the possible product announce dates if we were to start from October 2011.

16 months - February 2013
24 months - October 2013
28 months - February 2014
32 months - June 2014
35 months - September 2014
50 months - December 2015

And to repeat pro bodies and pro lenses are often announced before major sporting events. There are two scheduled namely Winter Games on February 2014 and World Cup on June 2014.

Based on the data provided I expect at least one pro body to be announced as late as October 2013.

I further speculate that at least a total of 5 lenses will be announced/shipped this year. 3 non-L EF lens and 2 L lenses. No data on EFS or EFM lenses.

Possible candidates for upgrades are below.

1991 - TS-E45mm f/2.8
1991 - TS-E90mm f/2.8
1998 - EF 35mm f/1.4L USM
2003 - EF17-40mm f/4L USM
2004 - EF28-300mm f/3.5-5.6L IS USM
1996 - EF 135mm f/2L USM
1998 - EF100-400mm f/4.5-5.6L IS USM
1993 - EF 400mm f/5.6L USM

A EF 14-24mm f/2.8L USM is possible based on patent filings and Nikon having an equivalent that is selling well.

[bdunbar79]

According to the press release from Canon USA and Canon UK the 1DX replaces both the 1D4 and 1Ds3.

The 1-Series primary market is the photo news agencies like AP, Reuters, EPA, SI and other related outfits. Everyone else is essentially secondary.

Because of the hypercompetitive nature of the news business upgrades are done often.

Businesses who find the 1-Series beyond their budget have the option of the 5 or 7 Series bodies.

The upgrade cycles I have mentioned earlier are verifiable and factual. All counterpoints I have read so far are solely based on rumors published on CR. Yes, CR's posts are somewhat accurate but only for those products & services that were released within 24-48 hours after the rumor has been published. Once that lapses the rumor is just talk for gearheads to ramble about.

It is easy to be put on record when using a handle or pseudonym.

In terms of sales volume the 1-Series represents 1% of all EOS bodies made. So the pricing and features are for the 1%.

Anyhow, I am just rumormongering on inanimate objects. Those who are looking to upgrade like myself should take my posts into consideration if they want the latest and greatest.

What I hate most is buying really expensive gear then in less than 6 months a replacement will be announced to be shipped to your door step 3 months later.

Below are the product announcement pages from DPReview of all the 1D body generations.

EOS-1D X http://www.dpreview.com/news/2011/10/18/canoneos1dx
17 months as of today
EOS-1D Mark IV http://www.dpreview.com/news/2009/10/20/canon1d4
24 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark III http://www.dpreview.com/news/2007/2/22/canoneos1dmarkiii
32 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark II N http://www.dpreview.com/news/2005/8/22/canoneos1dmkiin
16 months before replacement
EOS-1D Mark II http://www.dpreview.com/news/2004/1/29/canoneos1dmkii
28 months before replacement
EOS-1D http://www.dpreview.com/news/2001/9/26/canoneos1d

Below are the product announcement pages from DPReview of all the 1Ds body generations. As earlier mentioned the 1D X is the successor of the 1Ds Mark III per Canon USA and UK press release.

EOS-1D X http://www.dpreview.com/news/2011/10/18/canoneos1dx
50 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds Mark III http://www.dpreview.com/news/2007/8/20/canoneos1dsmarkiii
35 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds Mark II http://www.dpreview.com/news/2004/9/21/canoneos1dsmkii
24 months before replacement
EOS-1Ds http://www.dpreview.com/news/2002/9/23/canoneos1ds

Based on the above product cycle duration here are the possible product announce dates if we were to start from October 2011.

16 months - February 2013
24 months - October 2013
28 months - February 2014
32 months - June 2014
35 months - September 2014
50 months - December 2015

And to repeat pro bodies and pro lenses are often announced before major sporting events. There are two scheduled namely Winter Games on February 2014 and World Cup on June 2014.

Based on the data provided I expect at least one pro body to be announced as late as October 2013.

I further speculate that at least a total of 5 lenses will be announced/shipped this year. 3 non-L EF lens and 2 L lenses. No data on EFS or EFM lenses.

Possible candidates for upgrades are below.

1991 - TS-E45mm f/2.8
1991 - TS-E90mm f/2.8
1998 - EF 35mm f/1.4L USM
2003 - EF17-40mm f/4L USM
2004 - EF28-300mm f/3.5-5.6L IS USM
1996 - EF 135mm f/2L USM
1998 - EF100-400mm f/4.5-5.6L IS USM
1993 - EF 400mm f/5.6L USM

A EF 14-24mm f/2.8L USM is possible based on patent filings and Nikon having an equivalent that is selling well.

Just FYI, there are winter games scheduled EVERY 4 years and a World CUP EVERY year.

[dolina]

Just FYI, there are winter games scheduled EVERY 4 years and a World CUP EVERY year.

Notice how the bodies & lenses are released months before the Summer & Winter games? And the World Cup I am referring to is the FIFA World Cup Championship that happens every four years.

The Olympics and World Cup are the most important and most important sporting events in the world. Nevermind Formula 1, nevermind NBA or even rugby world cup, cricket world cup. These are the events that requires the highest end camera and lens.

FIFA World Cup Championships
June 2010
June 2006
May 2002

Summer Olympics
September 2000
August 2004
August 2008
July 2012

Winter Olympics
February 2014
February 2010
February 2006
February 2002

Anyone else want to discredit me? 

[bdunbar79]

Just FYI, there are winter games scheduled EVERY 4 years and a World CUP EVERY year.

Notice how the bodies & lenses are released months before the Summer & Winter games? And the World Cup I am referring to is the FIFA World Cup Championship that happens every four years.

The Olympics and World Cup are the most important and most important sporting events in the world. Nevermind Formula 1, nevermind NBA or even rugby world cup, cricket world cup. These are the events that requires the highest end camera and lens.

FIFA World Cup Championships
June 2010
June 2006
May 2002

Summer Olympics
September 2000
August 2004
August 2008
July 2012

Winter Olympics
February 2014
February 2010
February 2006
February 2002

Anyone else want to discredit me? 

Oh come on, just having a little fun .  No one is discrediting you.  You could very well be correct.  Or, the industry is going a completely different direction and we don't know what is going to happen or be developed.  I'm not sure why major sporting events would warrant a MP monster, and I'm also not sure how the 1DX can be improved or why it needs improved, but who knows.

[dolina]

Boring Sunday afternoon. I am waiting for the polo match to start in 2 hours so I can shoot some sport shots.

I was making moves towards getting a 1DX but seeming the data points to an October announcement I am disinclined to push through with it anymore.

So my alternative now is the 5D3 which is lighter, cheaper and has more MP than the 1DX. Sure it isnt a double grip, lacks dual CF card slots and the battery life is shorter but at least the product life is expected to be good for another 2-3 years.

Sadly I have to have my 800mm serviced for it to work with the 5D3.

Just FYI, there are winter games scheduled EVERY 4 years and a World CUP EVERY year.

Notice how the bodies & lenses are released months before the Summer & Winter games? And the World Cup I am referring to is the FIFA World Cup Championship that happens every four years.

The Olympics and World Cup are the most important and most important sporting events in the world. Nevermind Formula 1, nevermind NBA or even rugby world cup, cricket world cup. These are the events that requires the highest end camera and lens.

FIFA World Cup Championships
June 2010
June 2006
May 2002

Summer Olympics
September 2000
August 2004
August 2008
July 2012

Winter Olympics
February 2014
February 2010
February 2006
February 2002

Anyone else want to discredit me? 

Oh come on, just having a little fun .  No one is discrediting you.  You could very well be correct.  Or, the industry is going a completely different direction and we don't know what is going to happen or be developed.  I'm not sure why major sporting events would warrant a MP monster, and I'm also not sure how the 1DX can be improved or why it needs improved, but who knows.

[bdunbar79]

I'm the same way.  I complained and complained about winter sports never ending and never ending, and now that it has ended, I miss doing it, lol .

[Bombsight]

This thread is a lot like two roaches meeting in the middle of the night, rubbing antlers in a corner, only to move along afterwards.

[Atinas]

Product announcements

1Ds Mark III - Aug 20, 2007 (35 months)
1Ds Mark II - Sep 23, 2004 (24 months)
1Ds - Sep 23, 2002

So... what now? Anyway not telling anyone not to stop buying. Just saying be aware.

You conveniently leave out the data point that there is NO true update yet for 1DsMarkIII ...or if one is lax, you should at least co-opt 1Dx as an update (which Canon said it was)...which was October 2011!!! 50 Months from the 1DsIII.

Selective listing of data to argue your point doesn't always help convince anyone.

Lets take the best and worst case scenario to support your rather flimsy thesis...

Even if one assumes that 1DX is "partially" a replacement for 1DsIII, that is 50 Months from 1DsMarkIII announcement to 1DX announcement in October 2011. Which you fail to list.

Much worse, if one assumes that 1DX is not the 1DsIII update, and this true high-MP update is yet to be announced, then it is 67months and counting as of now...

Either way, you leave out a key data point.

Any further contortion of the timeline is just plain silly and can only serve you to hold on to your rather weak prediction.

No one in their right mind is expecting a replacement for 1DX anytime soon

But wait: doesn't that big a period between releases, be it 50 or 67 months, mean an update is to be announced soon?

[neuroanatomist]

But wait: doesn't that big a period between releases, be it 50 or 67 months, mean an update is to be announced soon?

Not necessarily.  dSLRs seem to be getting toward diminishing marginal returns in terms of upgrades.  There's still product differentiation, so you can upgrade if you move up the line.  There's also still a consumer base that wants 'this year's' product not 'last year's', even if the only thing that's changed is one or two minor features (like the new car market, real redesigns happen much less frequently than the annual new models).  But once you've moved up the line to a 1D X, there's not much room for marginal improvements, and big ones that depend on new technology can take a while to implement.

All of which probably means a new 1-series body will be announced tomorrow, to spite me.   

[Maui5150]

All of which probably means a new 1-series body will be announced tomorrow, to spite me.   

It was announced yesterday... Guess  you missed it