Not to be an arsehole, but it really depends on whether you want to take pictures of things close by or far away.
Only you can decide this one. They're both top class lenses.
That's about how I see it. You don't really want opinions on lenses, you want opinions of focal lengths.
Given the venues you list, you'll be the star of the show at birthday parties with the 24-70. Everywhere else you'll be limited and doing a lot of cropping. With the 70-200, you'll get great shots at weddings, sporting events, etc., but at birthday parties you'll have lots of pictures of people's noses.
If you can swing it, the advice on going with the kit 24-105 and the 70-200 is sound to me. Otherwise, I agree with the 70-200 and the 40mm as a stand-in until you have a 24-70. The 40mm is a superb lens, and you'll always find uses for it -- could be the best $150 you ever spent on photo equipment.