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Author Topic: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest  (Read 15496 times)

unfocused

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2011, 01:08:10 PM »
A little chilling out is in order here. Plus, a little logic.

Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV.

Has the competition released a superior product that Canon must compete with? Lots of rumors, but nothing yet from Nikon and there are no other competitors at the 5D or IDs level.

Where is the fiercest competition right now? Not in the DSLR lines, that's for sure. It's in the mirror-less and in the "enthusiast prestige-rangefinder" category (FUJI).

Where is the profit? Sorry to disappoint, but it's not in any full frame DSLR, it's in Point-and-Shoots, Mirror-less and entry-level DSLRs.

What REAL deadlines might Canon be facing? I see only two plausible and immovable deadlines: the 2012 Summer Olympics and Photokina 2012. It's not an absolute must that Canon has to have new product available for either event, but if they have products in the pipeline, they'd most likely want to have something available for both.

Is there a real competitor in the DSLR line that has actually been announced? The only one I am aware of is Sony's a77, which is a competitor to the 7D and not to any full-frame model.

If Canon is feeling any pressure at all, it is likely to be on the mirror-less, G12/rangefinder and 7D fronts, since that is where competitors are showing up.

So, don't shoot the messengers. Neuro's analysis may not be popular, but it's probably correct.
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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2011, 01:08:10 PM »

Enrico

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2011, 01:11:32 PM »
Has anyone read through any annual report or anything like that?
In all these threads we all tend to base our arguments on what bodies sells the most:
xxxD vs xxD vs 7D vs 5D2 vs 1Dx
(based on profit, not pure turn around)

Has anyone done this homework and can tell me (us). Beacause if I knew those figures, and could give ourselves an estimate on the pure marketing value in a new 1D and many white lenses during the Olympics... than we could produce fabulous rumors as well...

Personally I don't have a clue, but I have learned that I am often wrong when guessing which body / car whatever is bringing the most dollars to the company.



awinphoto

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2011, 01:15:12 PM »
But that makes too much logical sense for CEO's and big wigs at Canon (or any other company for that matter) to go by... What they care about is market share/money coming in (profits)/and reputation.  The 5d is a better seller and will sell more than the 1d's and will have a higher return on investment hence the profit and market share portions of the formula... The 1d's are all about prestige and reputation... I dont think Canon at all sits back, in this economy and says (this is older so we will replace this first)... it's about what will give us the biggest volume of sales and is more profitable... Hence why rebels are upgraded yearly and pro cameras not..

Agreed - but Canon can point to current sales figures for the 5DII that are still quite high.  On Amazon.com, the 5DII is the best selling full frame dSLR, and the 19th best-selling dSLR on their top-100 list (next highest FF is the Nikon D700 at #30).  Gene_can_warble frequently begs us to stop buying 5DII's so Canon will release a 5DIII, and while I don't think that Canon has the 5DIII wrapped up with a bow and ready to ship tomorrow, he's right that sales of the 5DII are still strong - perhaps strong enough to deflate the urgency of releasing a 5DIII.

Do you or anyone know whether sales for the 5d (classic) was still strong selling when the 5d mark II came out?  I just feel, given limited resources, the economy is in the tank, profits and company viability is at the forefront of the canon exec's minds, that they will want kinda a shoe in/sure thing as far as a semi high ticket camera that will sell well... When they think in their minds... seriously, how many 1d's would they move if they came out with a new 1d(s)?  In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera?  Who wants to put the over/under betting line around 1 million units?  Now they come out with a 5d and the over/under units jumps up to 5-7 million (within the first few months...).  I think the margin of profit would be enough to make it worth their while..
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neuroanatomist

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2011, 01:37:55 PM »
Do you or anyone know whether sales for the 5d (classic) was still strong selling when the 5d mark II came out?  I just feel, given limited resources, the economy is in the tank, profits and company viability is at the forefront of the canon exec's minds, that they will want kinda a shoe in/sure thing as far as a semi high ticket camera that will sell well... When they think in their minds... seriously, how many 1d's would they move if they came out with a new 1d(s)?  In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera?  Who wants to put the over/under betting line around 1 million units?  Now they come out with a 5d and the over/under units jumps up to 5-7 million (within the first few months...).  I think the margin of profit would be enough to make it worth their while..

No idea what sales of the 5D were like when the 5DII came out, but given that it was the only 'affordable' FF camera for quite a while, it was probably still doing quite well (but then, the D700 release just preceeded the 5DII, and probably impacted Canon's timing, just as a D800 could, if Nikon releases that).

I agree that a 5DIII will certainly generate more profit for Canon than a 1DsIV - much more, and I doubt Canon will sell more than a million units of any 1Ds camera in a fiscal year.  The real questions are whether the differential between a 5DIII and the current 5DII profits would be higher than profit from a 1DsIV, and how much Canon feels releasing a 5DIII before a 1DsIV will hurt 1DsIV sales.

My personal guess is that there will not be much of a time lag between 1DsIV and 5DIII announcements.  They might even make a big splash and announce them simultaneously.  My feeling is that unlike the current models, the two new models will not share the same sensor, and that in addition to the pro build and other features, the 1DsIV will offer a higher resolution sensor than the 5DIII.  Knowing Canon's past history of using AF performance to differentiate among models, I also suspect they'll handicap the 5DIII with a less-than-stellar AF system.  While I doubt they'll recycle the 5D's system yet again (God, I hope not, although I wouldn't put it past them!), I speculate it will still have 9 + 6 points, but all the user-selectable ones will be cross-type.
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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2011, 01:46:08 PM »
"Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV."

Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII.  The 5D MkII has a better LCD display and a sensor with better microlenses, many believe that the 5D MkII has better IQ as a result.


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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2011, 01:57:25 PM »
"Is any company going to release a budget model of their product that has more and better features than their flagship? Not likely. So, by logic, that puts the 5D MkIII after a IDs MkIV."

Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII.  The 5D MkII has a better LCD display and a sensor with better microlenses, many believe that the 5D MkII has better IQ as a result.

Also, they wouldn't (again) add a camera that had better features than their flagship at the same time again (5d m2 and 1ds 3) but Given the time passed i'm sure everyone would understand a new 5d m3 as long as a far superior 1ds is shortly coming... it'd be cool to release them together as neuro suggested but that may be asking for too much. 
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Rincewind

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2011, 02:20:22 PM »
If model A has X features and Model B has X+1 features, Model B is the flagship because it has more features.  Now, if model Amk2 has X+3 features and Model Bmk2 has X+2 features, Model Amk2 is now the flagship because it has more features.  It is not the name that makes it a flagship it is the feature set.

I am a product manager in a not so distant industry to the light industry.  If this was my product range I would launch the 1D (of whatever version:s, mk4, mk5 whatever) first to a place stake in the ground and say "beat this".  Then the 5Dmk3 would come out later with a reduced feature set.  If the products are good and well costed, the turnover and margin will work out well over the lifetime of the product.  Do not make short term decisions (e.g. someone has an announcement next Tues) based on long term factors (the technology, business performance, etc.).  That is how product managers think.  I know because I am one!

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2011, 02:20:22 PM »

neuroanatomist

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2011, 02:35:05 PM »
Erm well that's exactly what Canon did with the 5D MkII released just after the 1Ds MkIII.

Just after?  No...a full year after.  Although the xD lines have product cycles that are much longer than one year, I would bet that sales of Mk-whatever updates are highest in the first year in large part because of the upgrade market (as opposed to de novo Canon users).  That one year gap allowed time for most 1DsII users to get 1DsIII's, before the cheaper option became available.  If Canon releases a 5DIII first, many 1DsIII users will go that route and then possibly not get a 1DsIV when it comes.  Also, releasing a consumer FF body before a pro FF body may give pros the impression that Canon doesn't care about them.  While that may be true from a direct financial standpoint (there just aren't that many 1-series shooters out there), from an indirect standpoint (i.e. marketing), keeping the pros happy boosts sales.  Granted, it's rare for high profile pros to switch camps, but it does happen (e.g. former Canon Explorer of Light Ole Jørgen Liodden is now a Nikon Ambassador, and Art Wolfe went the other way).  Allegedly, Liodden switched because when he asked Canon for a 1D IV they didn't give him one when he wanted, so he called up Nikon and they immediately sent him a D3S and a D3X with a whole bag of lenses.  Unhappy pro, indeed...

If model A has X features and Model B has X+1 features, Model B is the flagship because it has more features.  Now, if model Amk2 has X+3 features and Model Bmk2 has X+2 features, Model Amk2 is now the flagship because it has more features.  It is not the name that makes it a flagship it is the feature set.

The 1-series are the flagships by design - integrated grip, highest build quality, etc.  Yes, features are important.  But to take your logic to an extreme, the new Rebel T3i/600D has Live View, video, and goes up to ISO6400 - all features which the 1DsIII lacks.  So, is the T3i the new flagship?  Egads, I hope not...
« Last Edit: August 29, 2011, 02:51:13 PM by neuroanatomist »
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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2011, 02:54:47 PM »
If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time.  If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV. 

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?
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Rincewind

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2011, 03:11:47 PM »
Again, with my PM's hat on, I would divide the range in to two or more categories that I think we can all agree on.  My example, after the original statement of principle, cited the 1D and 5D.  They sit in a very different category to the 1000D, 600D, 60D and 7D.  It is not just based on the core technology (FF vs. crop) but also the surround feature set, which includes some very Pro oriented features that are unlikely to be seen on entry level cameras, even after many years of trickle-down.

To answer Neuroanatomist's question: number 1 because that is what a PM would do and number 2 please because I want a new camera now.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2011, 03:14:55 PM by Rincewind »

niko

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2011, 03:33:06 PM »
If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time.  If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV. 

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?

I would agree with this line of thought, if this was 2010 and we were ahead of the 1Ds release, however it is now late 2011 with still no 1Ds in sight. - I am inclined to believe that no leaks = no imminent announcement, since that is the well established precedent within the DSLR releases.

With it being 2011 and the 1Ds over 1 year past its "scheduled" release date, perceived or otherwise, the expectations have certainly gone up and judging by the missing flagship, Canon has taken a different path to the next release cycle.  I for one, believe that Canon will differentiate the 1Ds and 5D first and foremost by the sensor used, with the 1Ds being much higher MP while the 5D maints a level close to the current sensor, leaving room to address the 5D AF (hopefully it is not just wishfull thinking on my part  :P).

As always, it would be difficult to come to any conclusions for the 1Ds/5D series using only the available (very limited) precedent as data.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2011, 04:05:13 PM by niko »

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2011, 04:05:54 PM »
Quote
In this economy, other than the cream of the crop, high budget, agency and or freelance photographers, who would plop 8 grand down, or even 7 grand on a new top of the line camera? 

That's a very good argument in favor of releasing a 1dsIV before a new 5D. The market for flagship products is always less sensitive to the economy. 1Ds customers fall into two categories – those who need the product to earn a living and can't afford to risk losing work because their equipment isn't equal to their competitors and those who have the disposable income to spend as much as they want on a product. Neither of these targets are impacted as much by the economy as customers at the 5D end of the scale.

Quote
If this was my product range I would launch the 1D (of whatever version:s, mk4, mk5 whatever) first to a place stake in the ground and say "beat this".  Then the 5Dmk3 would come out later with a reduced feature set.

Exactly.

Quote
My example, after the original statement of principle, cited the 1D and 5D.  They sit in a very different category to the 1000D, 600D, 60D and 7D.

Just because it's fun to cause problems, I will quibble. I think there are really three categories. I would put the 1D bodies into one category, the 5D and 7D into another and all the others into a third. While this forum is dominated by full-frame enthusiasts, my personal, non-scientific observation of the real world is that individuals who earn their living from photography at the modest/middle-class level (wedding photographers, freelancers, small and mid-market photojournalists) seem to be a mixture of 5D and 7D users.

Just one example: I've had the misfortune to attend a number of weddings in the last couple of years and have noticed that while most use 5D's, there are a fair number of 7D users as well. Some mix the two bodies. I have yet to see any wedding photographer using a 1D. (They may be out there, but not at weddings in my socioeconomic category.)

I don't pretend to know where the market is going. I'm not convinced anyone, including Nikon and Canon really knows either. (Not that they don't do a lot of market research, but because the market itself is changing rapidly) But, it seems from my narrow vantage point that the distance between the 5D and the 1D is increasing and the distance between the 7D and the 5D is narrowing.

I still believe that one of the big challenges facing Canon is what to do about video in the 5D. I don't think they anticipated the popularity that the camera would enjoy with video and filmmakers. Now they have to figure out how to satisfy two very different markets. Some months ago, I suggested that the biggest challenge for Canon may be trying to meet both demands in a single body. I still believe they will only split the 5D line if there is absolutely no way they feel they can produce a camera optimized for both film and stills.

Finally, I tend to agree with Neuro that we could well see different sensors in the 1Ds than in the 5D. If that is the case, we could also see both bodies announced at or about the same time.
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neuroanatomist

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #27 on: August 29, 2011, 05:07:09 PM »
the distance between the 5D and the 1D is increasing and the distance between the 7D and the 5D is narrowing.

I don't know that the 5D and 1D are really even close, except that Canon chose to put the same sensor into the two current models in those respective lines.  Formally put (in terminology familiar to those who've taken standardized tests):

1Ds : 1D :: 5DII : 7D

Or longhand, the relationship between the 1Ds and 1D lines is similar to that between the 5D and 7D lines - fundamentally, it's about still/studio utility vs. sports/action utility, or if you prefer, larger sensor vs. faster frame rates.
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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #27 on: August 29, 2011, 05:07:09 PM »

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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #28 on: August 29, 2011, 06:17:09 PM »
There is no way the 5D3 will be as delayed as end of 2012…

Now, that statement smells to me as coming from some poor soul longing for a 5DIII.

I have never bought into the idea that Canon will release a 5DIII before a 1DsIV.  The latter is older, more in need of an upgrade, and will likely be released first.  If (a big IF) we se an announcement for a 1DsIV coming out soon, that puts the 1Ds line on a 4-year replacement, so if that gap trickles down to the 5D line, late 2012 makes perfect sense.

I think also, if Canon could have their way, they would probably like to put a year's gap between the 1DsIV and the 5DIII.  That would be a simple way to maximise 1DsIV sales before the 5DIII comes out.  In a competitive market, however, Canon may not be able to afford to do that.  Back in 2007/2008 Canon was leading the full frame enthusiast segment by a country mile.  That is no longer the case.  Canon will need to take much more account of what Nikon and Sony do.
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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #29 on: August 29, 2011, 07:44:03 PM »
IMO opinion it doesn't matter if Canon releases the 1Ds IV before or at the same time as the 5DIII as long as there's a clear product differentiation that's worth paying 2,5 or 3 times more.
But that's just the big problem... the 1Ds IV should have every new feature that exist to be price worthy....
People are not going to pay that much for just weather sealing, better AF, higher fps (that most people don't need), same (or slight better) ISO performance, dual memory slots and maybe some more pixels (that most people are not waiting for).

The recent price drop of the 5DII could be an indication that the 5DIII will be released soon. Some shops also mention the sale of the 5DII as long as stocks last. I also heard of a photographer who worked for Canon that the 5DII would be released by the end of this year (but I don't know how reliable his information is).

If you look at the Nikon D800, if they only release a 20MP+ cam with video function and the same features as the D700 and an affordable price, they have a real Canon 5D(III) beater.





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Re: According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest
« Reply #29 on: August 29, 2011, 07:44:03 PM »