According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest

[npherno]

If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time.  If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV. 

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?

While I agree with most points you all have made I think these are the central points.

Canon's issue is that they will absolutely sell more 5DIII bodies and cannot afford to lose them. At the same time they cannot further mess up their market segments. As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.

I agree the 1D(s) bodies will be first, but they will lose all the market momentum especially if Nikon drops the D800 soon. The D700 was stiff competition for the 5DII already with regard to pure stills. The 5DII sold as well as it did because of video. I think if Nikon adds nice video in the short term, then Canon may well lose many sales.

[Edwin Herdman]

What they will lose are all the newbies and future pros. Once you start investing in a system, there will be no going back.

There's little in the Sony lineup to make a person want to jump.  A big fat stabilized f/1.8 50mm is about as unique as the lineup gets - but there isn't much in the way of telephotos nor specialized lenses.  No perspective correction / shift lenses, and not much in the way of ultrawide or fast aperture lenses.  In fact, there's not much in the Alpha mount lineup period.

I would rather Canon gets any 5D line continuation right the first time rather than rush it to market.

[gmrza]

If the 5DIII and 1DsIV will use the same sensor and the 5DIII improves substantially on the 5DII's shotrcomings (mainly AF), I would bet the 5DIII will be released a year or so after a 1DsIV, so the two will be differentiated by time.  If they are temporally close, or the 5DIII is released first, there will have to be a BIG feature gap, and I suspect that will mean a crippled 5DIII rather than a super-enhanced 1DsIV. 

So, which would people rather have?

1) A 5DIII that uses the same sensor as the 1DsIV and has a much better AF system than the 5DII, but is not released for over a year after the 1DsIV?

...or...

2) A 5DIII that offers a couple more megapixels than the 5DII, a slightly better AF system, and maybe 0.5 more fps, and is otherwise the same in most respects as the 5DII, but comes out this year?

While I agree with most points you all have made I think these are the central points.

Canon's issue is that they will absolutely sell more 5DIII bodies and cannot afford to lose them. At the same time they cannot further mess up their market segments. As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.

I agree the 1D(s) bodies will be first, but they will lose all the market momentum especially if Nikon drops the D800 soon. The D700 was stiff competition for the 5DII already with regard to pure stills. The 5DII sold as well as it did because of video. I think if Nikon adds nice video in the short term, then Canon may well lose many sales.

We seen to all be making the assumption that Canon needs to sell lots of 1Ds bodies.  That may indeed not be the case.

Another view of things may be that Canon needs a flagship studio body that satisfies a small niche and provides bragging rights, and a popular full frame body that makes all the profits.  5Dx bodies sell many times more than the volumes of 1Dsy bodies.  Canon needs to sell lots of 5Dx bodies in order to make a profit.  Canon needs to sell a small number of 1Dsy bodies in order to hold a small number of leading light photographers who influence the masses and a small number of busy pros who have very demanding needs.

I don't think a lack of differentiation between the 5Dx and 1Dsy necessarily hurts Canon.  It could even all be part of Canon's plan. After all, the 1DsIII has proved to be a niche product and the 5DII a huge money spinner.  That has been a success recipe for Canon.

Maybe Canon does not need or want to sell large volumes of 1Ds bodies - which would especially be the case if the margins are low.  Even if Canon could sell a few times as many 1DsIIIs as they are, they would still not approach anything near the volumes of 5DIIs sold.  I would thus suspect that the margins on the 1DsIII are much lower.  (Here I mean the margins for Canon, not for the channel.)  Thus, it may make a lot more sense for Canon to focus on making the 5D series a success, even at the expense of 1Ds sales - which would especially be the case if the margin on the 5DII is better.  Given volumes and the lower tolerances and build quality of the 5DII, I suspect that is the case.

We are all quick to assume that Canon are kicking themselves for cannibalising 1DsIII sales with the 5DII.  We may be wrong.  Canon may have achieved exactly what they set out to do.

[Mt Spokane Photography]

I agree that we won't see a 5D MK III until after the 1D MK III.  However, Canon claims that they have recovered from the earthquake faster than thought, so being stopped for 4 or 5 months should not cause a 1 year plus delay.  Nikon obviously has not popped out new models yet, in spite of rumors, so there is little pressure at this point to rush out a new model.

The Nikon D3s appeared briefly in the Nikon Refurb store yesterday for $4160, but when I saw extra batteries going for $175,  I decided the system as a whole is pretty expensive.  They sold out in short order.

I guess we can look forward to $175 batteries for the 1Ds Mark 4.

[recon photography]

canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though

[pedro]

canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though

A guess only: if a 5Diii would be announced let's say mid October and they'd send out the prices to the winner in early November there might be a possibilty to get an already "replaced body", because the agreement was based on a 5Dii. Canon would not be forced to send out hot and new gear by no means. Don't know too much about these things, but one expects what is being offered initially...at least here in Switzerland...

[te4o]

Let me add one question to neuro's 2
A: After a "1DsIV"-release in October 2011 (around 7k) how many of you will wait to see what the 5DIII will be like? (and NOT buy a 1D)
AND
B:After a "5DIII" release in October 2011 (around 3.5k) how many of you will wait to see what the 1DsIV will be like? (and NOT buy a 5D)

I expect a ratio A:B around 1000:1 roughly.

(Mathematically speaking, if Canon wants to sell 1001 cameras they should release both quite close to each other...)

[ronderick]

I expect a ratio A:B around 1000:1 roughly.

(Mathematically speaking, if Canon wants to sell 1001 cameras they should release both quite close to each other...)

Well, if I recall correctly, Nikon did that before with the D3/D300 release back in 2007. Both were announced at roughly about the same time.

[Bishbashbosh44]

Folks should enjoy what they have. For me I have a 1d mark 3 and a elderly 5 d, both are not now cutting edge but I don't care. Look at the Alpha 900 and 850 from Sony, 24 megapixels but hopeless over iso 400 as the images are too noisy, so having lots of megapixels doesn't necessarily make for a good camera, Canon made this mistake with the 1 Ds mark 3 over the 2.

[recon photography]

canon have a comp where they are giving out a 5d mk 2 in a couple of months so i doubt they would give an out of date camera I think it will be a long time, a 1d replacement should come soon though

A guess only: if a 5Diii would be announced let's say mid October and they'd send out the prices to the winner in early November there might be a possibilty to get an already "replaced body", because the agreement was based on a 5Dii. Canon would not be forced to send out hot and new gear by no means. Don't know too much about these things, but one expects what is being offered initially...at least here in Switzerland...

i'm sure thats normal everywhere it just doesn't seem like much of a giveaway if its out of date, its almost like giving food past its use-by-date to the homeless

[DynaMike]

A high performing camera worth approx $2000 USD isn't much of a giveaway??!!  If you win you can gladly ship it to me then. 

[pedro]

A high performing camera worth approx $2000 USD isn't much of a giveaway??!!  If you win you can gladly ship it to me then.

+1 and I would add this to my former post concerning recon photography's input: if a 5Diii is announced in October, I guess you won't put your hands on in November anyway...imho. A 5Dii will take the same great pictures even as an "outdated" body. I guess you refer to the tech part. So my old 30D is even more outdated then, but it never ceases to amaze me...while I am waiting for the 5diii dreaming of very clean ISO 12800

[UncleFester]

 As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.

Durability and shutter cycles.

[neuroanatomist]

 As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.

Durability and shutter cycles.

Much (much!!) better AF performance.  I bet they'll hobble the 5DIII's AF, just like they did with the 5DII.

[Ricku]

Much (much!!) better AF performance.  I bet they'll hobble the 5DIII's AF, just like they did with the 5DII.

Now theres something that would ruin my day.

The one and only reason to why I want the 5DIII (right now) is because I hope it will have better AF than the randomized crap AF of 5DII.