According to NL 5Diii is a late 2012 camera at the very earliest

[lol]

There's a more easy way to tell the 5D3 release date. If I buy a 5D2 now, the 5D3 will be out by Christmas. So do I get a 5D2 now... (I don't need one, but it would make many of my lenses more interesting...)

On the possibly crippled AF, I think we can take some note on the 7D which is the best APS-C AF to date. I don't think its as good as people make it out to be, but it is still an improvement over say the 50D. So I do think Canon will upgrade the 5D3 AF almost certainly, but I wouldn't want to guess how far. I'd be satisfied if it was comparable to the 7D's. Compared against Nikon the 5D2 AF does seem very lagging.

[neuroanatomist]

On the possibly crippled AF, I think we can take some note on the 7D which is the best APS-C AF to date. I don't think its as good as people make it out to be, but it is still an improvement over say the 50D. So I do think Canon will upgrade the 5D3 AF almost certainly, but I wouldn't want to guess how far. I'd be satisfied if it was comparable to the 7D's. Compared against Nikon the 5D2 AF does seem very lagging.

I'm fairly certain they wil upgrade it, but not too far.  I hope it will come up to the level of the 7D, but I really doubt it. I don't think it will get the customization features of the 7D's AF (no spot AF, no zone AF, etc.).  I see it getting all cross-type, at least for the selectable ones (assuming they keep the 'invisible' assist points).  They might pack a few more points in there, but unfortunately I think that the area covered by the AF array will remain the same, i.e. inadequate spread of points. 

Regarding that inadequate spread, some folks will point out that Canon has stated, "The outer points on the extreme left and right are actually located at the same positions as the corresponding points in the EOS-1Ds Mark III."  That's fine as far as it goes, but the white paper conveniently omits the fact that the top and bottom AF points on the 5DII are much more tightly placed - a full 'row' narrower on both the top and bottom, relative to the 1DsIII or 7D (on the 5DII, the top/bottom AF points are just outside the spot metering circle, whereas current 1D/1Ds and 7D have a bigger gap from the circle).  The consequence is that on the 1-series and on the 7D, there are AF points that sit at the 'rule-of-thirds' intersections, whereas on the 5DII you can't even get close - and I expect that won't change with the 5DIII.

[npherno]

 As noted, Canon also still needs to find a reason to make someone pay $8k for the flagship.

Durability and shutter cycles.

Much (much!!) better AF performance.  I bet they'll hobble the 5DIII's AF, just like they did with the 5DII.

Thats exactly what I am afraid of. It seems that Nikon has a chance to take the "bang of the buck" (not counting lenses and accessories) category if the D800 has competitive video.

I agree AF and durability of 5DMiii should not be close to that of flagship, but If Nikon can ship proper AF, and good frame rate, so should Canon. D700 Beats it in low ISO as well.

Bottom line is will Canon intermediate shooters who may not have much invested in Canon stick around if Nikon is significantly better "perceived" value, especially if D800 is released first, and/or the 5DMiii is not as good or better.

I think Canon is forgetting that perception is important in the marketplace, and I can say my current perception is that Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.

[gene_can_sing]

I think for still photos, the current 5D2 is fine.

But for video and for the many video people who invested a small fortune in Canon equipment thinking that the future was going to bright 3 years ago, Canon owes us big time. Many video people bought into the Canon system several years back thinking that it was the first generation of cameras and we all knew the flaws, but we saw the potential for the future. We figured that Canon was a safe company to invest in.

Canon has NOT delivered whatsoever in the last few years on video. They've released a series of cameras with the exact same problems over and over again. Panasonic and Sony have fixed these minor problems (moire, aliasing) that Canon continues to ignore.

At the very least, if Canon does not release the 5D3 until the end of 2012, they need to release some type of video DSLR of at least a decent large sensor video camera.

Canon has made countless millions of dollars off people who bought Canon bodies and lenses mainly for video, which is one of the main reasons for the huge success of the 5D and the 7D. And when so many have vested so much cash into a company, they owe you to keep up the pace on tech.

Canon has not met their end of the bargain for video, and they need to start delivering soon and deliver big time for making people wait so long for basic fixes.

[neuroanatomist]

...Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.

Exactly. For example, if you want to edit .CR2 RAW files with 'native' Canon software, they "nickel and dime" you by giving you DPP for free, whereas if you want to edit .NEF RAW files with 'native' Nikon software, they give you...oh, wait - you have to *buy* CaptureNX2.

[Kernuak]

I'm in the camp that can't see the 5D MkIII being released before the 1Ds MkIV (or whatever it may turn out to be). Yes, it is lacking in frame rate and speed of focus, but in low light in one shot mode, it out performs the 7D. I've also heard of similar complaints about focus in the Nikon camp, plus test shots seem to indicate that there is very little difference in noise levels between the D700 and 5D MkII (although I haven't of course done a side by side test). There are differences in the noise in those shots, but it's more about the look of the noise than the actual amount and then it is down to personal preference on which you prefer.
I have two work colleagues who are interested in photography, one was a Sony user, the other is a Nikon user. In the past month or so, both have been strongly considering a switch to Canon. The Sony user actually bought a 7D a few weeks ago and is now raving about how good it is (although it was before the A77 release). He also likes the choice of lenses, even though he's struggling to choose which ones to get for his needs. The Nikon user has decided to wait on the playing out of the current Nikon rumours, but he has said that if he had his choice again, before buying into the Nikon system, he would have chosen Canon. He considers that Nikon have made a bad choice on limiting the sensor resolution to 12MP for so long. He looked into the D7000 to replace his D300s, but didn't like the idea of the drop in build quality. He's also flip-flopped between crop and full frame, going from the D300 to D700 and back to D300s, because he found that he didn't have the reach on his lenses with the D700 that he needed. He of course wishes he kept both, to have a similar combination to me with my 5D MkII/7D combination. As he said, having the extra resolution isn't always necessary, but it gives him the flexibility of cropping when he needs to. I suppose it's a case the grass is always greener on the other side, as I've thought about Nikon in the past for low noise, high ISO. The 7D may not match the D300s, but I feel it is pretty much on a par with the D300 and I have the extra cropping factor if I need to, because of the higher resolution. With my old 40D, I had to upsize for submission to Alamy, the 7D stopped that and even though Alamy have reduced the submission limit, I have room to crop and still be ok. More images means more potential earnings (subject to sufficient quality), which means more gear I can afford, not that I could ever make a living from it .

[npherno]

...Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.

Exactly. For example, if you want to edit .CR2 RAW files with 'native' Canon software, they "nickel and dime" you by giving you DPP for free, whereas if you want to edit .NEF RAW files with 'native' Nikon software, they give you...oh, wait - you have to *buy* CaptureNX2.

Haha, well said, but at that level, who doesn't already own Aperture  or Lightroom? I am a Canon owner. I like my 50D. I think that one needs to be honest and admit that although one can say no product is perfect, Canon absolutely was stingy on the 5D AF. There a few other ways they were cheap.. Wireless controller not built into the body was a pain, No flash on 5D vs D700, etc. Small stuff.

[autochrome]

...Nikon makes cameras for photographers, and that Canon "nickel and dimes" their customers.

Exactly. For example, if you want to edit .CR2 RAW files with 'native' Canon software, they "nickel and dime" you by giving you DPP for free, whereas if you want to edit .NEF RAW files with 'native' Nikon software, they give you...oh, wait - you have to *buy* CaptureNX2.

It was worse than that, they encrypted some NEF metadata so third-party RAW processors couldn't decode the RAW files correctly, only by entering an agreement with Nikon, apparently they were trying even to prevent open-source developers from accessing this data since the need for a Nikon approval of the software project would be incompatible with several open-source licenses, such as the GNU GPLv2 for instance.

– In response to recent complaints from photographers and engineers about the encryption of its RAW white balance data, Nikon issued a statement defending their proprietary RAW file design. Nikon’s digital SLR users claim images captured by the camera – and the data used to make them – belongs to the photographer. However, Nikon wishes to keep the data encrypted to protect its trade secrets, among other things.

"Nikon’s preservation of its unique technology in the NEF file is employed as an action that protects the uniqueness of the file," the Nikon advisory stated. "At the same time, Nikon makes available a software developer kit (SDK) that, when implemented appropriately, enables a wide range of NEF performance, including white balance, for Nikon photographers and their productive use of the NEF file."

The SDK is available to "bona fide" developers who must write to Nikon for approval, the release stated. When new cameras are introduced, Nikon must update the kits with new information – such is the case with the Nikon D2X, D2Hs, and new releases. The Nikon digital cameras come with PictureProject software, which has a software license agreement that protects Nikon’s interests.

http://www.digitalcamerainfo.com/content/Nikon-Defends-Encrypted-NEF-Format.htm


This didn't deterred developers from breaking the encryption, but that alone must've costed Nikon a lot of customers.

As noted in the comments about Nikon's highly inadvisable decision to encrypt its RAW files, Bibble Labs has cracked the Nikon white balance encryption in the latest version of its imaging software. Now programmer Dave Coffin has also reverse-engineered the encryption and has published the decryption code on his website, intending to make Nikon's RAW a completely open format. Coffin hopes his work will allow Adobe to support Nikon's file format in future versions of their Camera Raw software, but Adobe is still understandably hesitant about drawing a possible lawsuit under the Digital Millennium Copyright Act (DMCA). Plus, the question still remains regarding whether much can be done to salvage the betrayed trust Nikon visited on its customers by opting to encrypt its RAW files in the first place.

http://www.engadget.com/2005/04/22/nikons-raw-photo-encryption-broken-twice/

[messus]

Let see, Sony is set to release some very good Cameras according to early tests of their cheapo $600 camera,

http://www.eoshd.com/content/3784/nex-5n-demolishes-ep-3-at-high-isos-even-beats-5d-mk-ii-nikon-d7000

and Nikon is set to release some new full frame DSLRs soon. Canon has to react.

Remember, Canon won't lose the users who are heavily vested in equipment (like myself). What they will lose are all the newbies and future pros. Once you start investing in a system, there will be no going back. And if there is a 1 1/4 year lag time till the next 5D3, that's a lot of newbies going to Sony and Nikon for a lifetime of usage.

I seriously doubt Canon will wait that long. Many people will be pissed off, including myself. The only person that will be happy is Neuromancer.

I am also heavily invested in Canon equipment, and I love my 5D2. But you assume wrong for everyone. If Canon fail to deliver new fast high-iso fullframes within a reasonable timeframe (2011), I may be forced to switch to Nikon if they release something soon that is, or Sony.

My business will suffer more from not getting new and better cameras than if I have to sell my gear and buy new.

And this is not about "whining" and complaining, this is a fact! At least for me!

I still pray Canon releases the 5D3 or a 3D this autumn, because I need it now!

[mackguyver]

The 5D MkIII will be announced tomorrow.  How do I know?  Because I finally gave up waiting and purchased a MkII...and life's just cruel like that.

[AG]

The 5D MkIII will be announced tomorrow.  How do I know?  Because I finally gave up waiting and purchased a MkII...and life's just cruel like that.

such is life.

[epsiloneri]

The 5D MkIII will be announced tomorrow.  How do I know?  Because I finally gave up waiting and purchased a MkII...and life's just cruel like that.

Thanks, mackguyver, we appreciate your sacrifice.

[pedro]

macguyver: thta'ts true bravery...should it be announced tommorrow, I'll think of you 

[bvukich]

The 5D MkIII will be announced tomorrow.  How do I know?  Because I finally gave up waiting and purchased a MkII...and life's just cruel like that.

We all appreciate you taking one for the team.  You truly are a prince among men.

 

[moreorless]

I agree AF and durability of 5DMiii should not be close to that of flagship, but If Nikon can ship proper AF, and good frame rate, so should Canon. D700 Beats it in low ISO as well.

At the end of the day I think it comes down to the same point thats been made many times before, Nikon gave the D700 better autofocus, Canon gave the 5D Mk2 a higher megapixel sensor.