Where are the new FF cameras everyone was expecting?

[Mike Ca]

So Aug 24th Sony announced the A77 with a new 24 MP APS-C sensor. Nikon has not announced a camera yet using the 24 MP Sony sensor. Presumably Nikon will announce a replacement for the D700 that will use the Sony 24 MP sensor. Rumors say the Nikon announcement might come in September, perhaps as early as Sep 8th, but then maybe not. It looks like Nikon is delaying announcing a camera using the Sony 24 MP APS-C sensor so Sony can have a window for the A77.

Now Sony is rumored to have a 32 MP FF sensor in development. When the A77 was announced, Sony said they were still planning to bring out a new FF cameras to replace A850 and A900, but declined to give any time frame and indicated Sony had not yet decided whether the replacements would be DSLRs or use the translucent mirror technology like the A77 (http://www.bjp-online.com/british-journal-of-photography/news/2104388/sony-planning-frame-camera). This doesn't sound like Sony will be bringing this camera market for a while.

Will Nikon release a FF camera using the Sony 32 MP sensor before Sony does? Is the reason Sony is not releasing a FF cameras that FF cameras are such a small part of Sony's business it it not important to them and they would be willing to let Nikon go first in the FF market? Or are there still technical problems to be worked out with the new 32 MP FF sensor?

Given that there is a 24 MP APS-C camera from Sony and probably from Nikon shortly, will Canon be thinking of replacing the 7D sooner? Will Canon go ahead and bring out a new FF camera if the Sony and Nikon FF cameras are delayed?

[mjbehnke]

I think 24MP APS-C would be a horrible sensor. That is just so much on such a small chip. I hope Canon goes the route of working on the image quality (Noise\ISO) instead of pumping out higher megapixels. They went down on the P&S cameras and the image quality was much better. Am I wrong in thining the Gapless sensor is already pretty tight? Just MHO. As for FF cameras, I think Canon has got some pretty cool features coming soon and I think it will include the Digit V chip set. ....... Might as well dream big! .......

[YoukY63]

So Aug 24th Sony announced the A77 with a new 24 MP APS-C sensor. Nikon has not announced a camera yet using the 24 MP Sony sensor. Presumably Nikon will announce a replacement for the D700 that will use the Sony 24 MP sensor. Rumors say the Nikon announcement might come in September, perhaps as early as Sep 8th, but then maybe not. It looks like Nikon is delaying announcing a camera using the Sony 24 MP APS-C sensor so Sony can have a window for the A77.

Now Sony is rumored to have a 32 MP FF sensor in development. When the A77 was announced, Sony said they were still planning to bring out a new FF cameras to replace A850 and A900, but declined to give any time frame and indicated Sony had not yet decided whether the replacements would be DSLRs or use the translucent mirror technology like the A77 (http://www.bjp-online.com/british-journal-of-photography/news/2104388/sony-planning-frame-camera). This doesn't sound like Sony will be bringing this camera market for a while.

Will Nikon release a FF camera using the Sony 32 MP sensor before Sony does? Is the reason Sony is not releasing a FF cameras that FF cameras are such a small part of Sony's business it it not important to them and they would be willing to let Nikon go first in the FF market? Or are there still technical problems to be worked out with the new 32 MP FF sensor?

Given that there is a 24 MP APS-C camera from Sony and probably from Nikon shortly, will Canon be thinking of replacing the 7D sooner? Will Canon go ahead and bring out a new FF camera if the Sony and Nikon FF cameras are delayed?

You assume that Nikon is waiting for FF sensors from Sony.
But that is wrong. Nikon does not need Sony, as the D700 sensor was not Sony made but produced by Renesas with Nikon engineering.
So Nikon can announce D700 replacement whenever they want.

I think 24MP APS-C would be a horrible sensor. That is just so much on such a small chip. I hope Canon goes the route of working on the image quality (Noise\ISO) instead of pumping out higher megapixels. They went down on the P&S cameras and the image quality was much better. Am I wrong in thining the Gapless sensor is already pretty tight? Just MHO. As for FF cameras, I think Canon has got some pretty cool features coming soon and I think it will include the Digit V chip set. ....... Might as well dream big! .......

You assume that 24MP will be worse than previous sensors. But still Sony showed last year that an increase in MP is not always leading to bad IQ. We cannot say that their 16MP sensor is bad, it may even be better than Canon sensor. Still, there is 33% more pixels than in the previous sensor (12MP in D90/D300/Kx/etc...)
The first results seemed bad, but more secent results indicated that a better treatment can give acceptable results (sure not yet the quality of 5DII).

So let's wait and things will come by themselves.
 

[NotABunny]

I don't know who was expecting these cameras, but I was not. I was and am hoping that they will be released soon.

However, if these camera don't bring anything significant in terms of low noise at high ISO and dynamic range, I am not going to pay 3000 USD for a body that is just another iteration (having a mere 1.3 stops less noise, in RAW, is not going to cut it).

I don't need megapixels, I don't need 50 focus points, or tank-like build, but I do need the flexibility to do photography in the most demanding natural lighting conditions (= not controlled), which means autofocus speed and accuracy, low noise at high ISO (preferably in low light), banding free noise, high dynamic range, proper auto ISO, limit intervals for autoexposure settings, exposing to the right (instead of for neutral gray, so I can actually benefit from all that tonal range), dual storage (for reliability), ... you know, the things that allow me to take photos instead of changing settings to correct the exposure for the existing lighting conditions, and get the best technical quality possible in all natural lighting conditions.

I don't pay thousands of dollars to take lucky shots, I pay that to consistently take good shots.

So I prefer they take the time to make the cameras worth the money. For this i will wait till next year, spring (or summer for Sony's full frame).

[Joaquox]

All these rumors really dumped the resale value of the 5DIIs.

I put mine out for a few thousand SEK under current new price. People offer me 50% of the new price for my 6 months old camera, 3000 exp, and when I say no, they go like: you're such a looser, soon the 5D3 will come out and you camera wont be worth anything bla bla bla.

And I'm like: it's still the highest resolution Canon camera on the market, and I'd rather keep it than sell it for a bag of peanuts.

Usually shuts them up, but I'm starting to think I might have to keep the camera. It's ok tough, I'm not in dire need of money and the reason i'm selling is because I'm putting down digital photography, not looking to upgrade to mkIII.

[TexPhoto]

Checking completed auctions on eBay, i see the 5DII bodies going for 1700-2200.  That does not seem that low if you paid 2500. 

Of course people will try to lowball you, but thats normal.  When I bought my 5DII 3 years ago, i first looked at at used 5D I's, and they were running $1500 with the 5D II announced and in stores. 

[gene_can_sing]

I'm actually starting to think that Digic V is a failure and that's why Canon has not set up any firm dates. 1D has missed it's 3 year product cycle by 1 year. Canon is now on a 4 year product cycle as opposed to the 3 year that everyone expected.

So yeah, dragging your feet for 1 year extra probably mean something is wrong. Canon released nothing significant in 2010 and it's looking like 2011 is going to have nothing significant again. 2 years in a row? That just spells something is wrong, unless Canon is really just trying to milk you dry, which is very possible also.

Nikon and Sony have generated a lot of excitement for their users the past few months with solid releases (from Sony) and announcements. NONE from Canon. Silent, nothing. That does not look good.

[philHolland]

Keep in mind Canon has the technology currently to go well past 24, 28, 32, and 36 megapixels.  The down side to such high resolution sensors is that the vast majority of lenses really won't be able to resolve say 50 megapixels even with a hefty AA filter getting in the way.  Also, not many consumers are ready for that world.  But that option is out there dangling in the wind.  But we are stretching the limit on some glass right now at 21 megapixels.

There's also a ton of new sensor tech that has been floating around for about two years that we may or may not see.

There's likely a game going behind the curtains at the moment. Somebody is waiting for another somebody to say something.  Feels a little like 2008.  I would put safe money that in two weeks we'll "see" something announced for late October/early November.  There will probably be a new zoom announced in there too for good measure.

[neuroanatomist]

1D has missed it's 3 year product cycle by 1 year. Canon is now on a 4 year product cycle as opposed to the 3 year that everyone expected.

I suppose you mean 1Ds, since the 1D MkIV was released in 2009, and my calender seems to indicate that it's only been 2 years since then...

[mackguyver]

If you look at other technology, particularly higher-end gear with lower profit margins/economies of scale, you'll see that development cycles get longer and longer.  We're even seeing this mass market items - it's been years since the last X-Box or Playstation came out and their communites are also clamoring for new gear and touting previous cycle times.  I think the digital camera technology is maturing and the advances are less radical and slower than in the past.

All the same, I'm surprised by the differences between my 5DMkII and my 60D.  The 60D has much better AF, less banding in the blacks and other things that are frankly better than the 5DMkII because it's newer.  I'm with some of the others, though, I'd rather see them take their time and get it all the way right.

[unfocused]

the digital camera technology is maturing and the advances are less radical and slower than in the past.

Very good point. When people point to past history to predict future releases, they seem to ignore that digital cameras have not been around very long and that in the early stages of any new technology, there are usually some massive leaps in the first few years, followed by incremental changes as the technology matures.

A manufacturer of any product has to balance out the benefits of adding incremental improvements against the cost that results from the changes required in the production of the product.

Reading this forum should give people some idea of what Canon and other manufacturers are up against. People want new technology and they want it NOW! But they also want some really incredible and in many cases contradictory features.

If one were to distill the demands seen just on this forum, it might be summarized as a full frame, digital SLR that can take pictures in near total darkness, at extremely high ISOs with no discernible noise, while at the same time producing high definition video that eliminates all moire patterns. When shooting a landscape, you should be able to clearly make out sunspot details, while also retaining detail on the underside of any rocks in the foreground. The sensor should be about 50 megapixels, except for those who don't want more megapixels, in which case they should offer a sensor that has fewer megapixels than current models, so that these customers can edit photos on a 10-year-old laptop running Windows 95. The camera should be fully weather-sealed. Its autofocus system must never produce an out-of-focus image and it must be able to do so at a dozen frames per second. Autofocus should be available for video, except when it isn't needed, as which time, pull focus should be much easier to accomplish. Oh...and it's supposed to cost about $2,500 U.S.

While I'm getting a little tired of all the whining about what Canon HAS TO DO, I think I'm really dreading the whining that we'll hear when Canon finally releases it's next round of cameras and people start complaining about what it doesn't do.

[Mike Ca]

You assume that Nikon is waiting for FF sensors from Sony.
But that is wrong. Nikon does not need Sony, as the D700 sensor was not Sony made but produced by Renesas with Nikon engineering.
So Nikon can announce D700 replacement whenever they want.

I was a little mixed up about Nikon models. It is apparently the D300s replacement (D400?) that is rumored to use the new Sony APS-C sensor. The rumor (wish?) is that the D3s replacement (D4?) use the rumored Sony 32 MP FF sensor.  As you point out, Nikon could get a sensor from another source too.  Some people are looking for a D700 replacement, but that model is newer than the D300s and D3s.

I did a check on availability of Canon and Nikon high end models at B &H, Adorama and Amazon. Nobody has the Canon 1Ds Mark III in stock anymore, although B & H still had it in stock 2 or 3 weeks ago. Amazon says "Currently unavailable. We don't know when or if this item will be back in stock."

The Canon 5D and 7D are in stock everywhere.

The Nikon D3s is out of stock at B & H and Adorama, but Amazon has one left from a 3rd party. The D300s is out of stock at B&H, but in stock at Adorama and Amazon. Only Amazon has the D700 left from a 3rd party.

For what is worth, the Amazon status of the 1Ds Mark III makes it look like the mostly likely camera to be replaced in the near future.

[jseliger]

If you look at other technology, particularly higher-end gear with lower profit margins/economies of scale, you'll see that development cycles get longer and longer.  We're even seeing this mass market items - it's been years since the last X-Box or Playstation came out and their communites are also clamoring for new gear and touting previous cycle times.  I think the digital camera technology is maturing and the advances are less radical and slower than in the past.

I tend to buy this line of argument too. When I see people arguing about the finer points of entry level dSLRs, I mostly roll my eyes: for most people doing most things, virtually any camera released in the last two to three years will be just fine for uploading pictures to the Internet and prints up to the 20 x 30 neighborhood. When friends ask me things like, "What camera should I get?" I usually tell them to try the Canon s95 before anything else because it's a) portable and b) good enough for a lot of things. If they actually want a dSLR, my usual suggestion is, "Whatever your friends are using" or "buy used if you don't want or need to spend a lot of money."

Upgraded gear would be great, but starting in the neighborhood of the XSi or thereabouts, the marginal difference for most people doing most kinds of photography declined. These days, the main reason to get a newer body appears to be video.

(Note: this doesn't apply to pros, but to the broad base of the market—where I am—that wants better pictures than a P&S but isn't making money from their work.)

[scottkinfw]

Well said!

I don't know who was expecting these cameras, but I was not. I was and am hoping that they will be released soon.

However, if these camera don't bring anything significant in terms of low noise at high ISO and dynamic range, I am not going to pay 3000 USD for a body that is just another iteration (having a mere 1.3 stops less noise, in RAW, is not going to cut it).

I don't need megapixels, I don't need 50 focus points, or tank-like build, but I do need the flexibility to do photography in the most demanding natural lighting conditions (= not controlled), which means autofocus speed and accuracy, low noise at high ISO (preferably in low light), banding free noise, high dynamic range, proper auto ISO, limit intervals for autoexposure settings, exposing to the right (instead of for neutral gray, so I can actually benefit from all that tonal range), dual storage (for reliability), ... you know, the things that allow me to take photos instead of changing settings to correct the exposure for the existing lighting conditions, and get the best technical quality possible in all natural lighting conditions.

I don't pay thousands of dollars to take lucky shots, I pay that to consistently take good shots.

So I prefer they take the time to make the cameras worth the money. For this i will wait till next year, spring (or summer for Sony's full frame).

[silver_dot]

1D has missed it's 3 year product cycle by 1 year. Canon is now on a 4 year product cycle as opposed to the 3 year that everyone expected.

I suppose you mean 1Ds, since the 1D MkIV was released in 2009, and my calender seems to indicate that it's only been 2 years since then...

For sure he means EOS 1Ds MkIII released in november 2007, four years ago, with no more recent issue.

How many time to expect for  the next generation of this FF DSLR?