1Ds Mark IV in 2011 or 2012 [CR2]

[Stone]

This doesn't surprise me at all, as the world economy continues to turn around and disposable income goes up Canon needs sales to fund R&D for the next generation.  The 1Ds has never sold in great numbers and releasing a new $6 - $8K body that will NOT sell in great numbers probably doesn't make financial sense right now.

Yet there are a group of elite users that demand such a camera. These users also tend to have the coin to drop on 10K+ of lenses, multiple bodies, and CPS memberships. Also, people that use such a camera are influencers, a good word from them or some excellent work made by can build sales for Canon on the low end.

I agree with this although elite is a relative term, these professionals might be among the best at what they do and they have a certain amount of influence because of it.  It doesn't change the fact that the 1Ds is a low volume seller and has a significantly lower impact to Canon's bottom line.  The lowly Rebels, XXD and "lower end" XD cameras are what keep the doors open and the lights on.  So my original argument remains, the 1Ds has essentially 1 competitor and it won't be upgraded for probably another 2 years, Canon has time to release the 1Ds later as its specs are current with the competition.  I understand flagship cameras and why they exist but my point is, the impact to Canon will be minimal if they don't release a 1DsIV in the near term and they know it.  They can, however shake up the market by introducing a high performance FF camera that's within the reach of the non-elite professional and advanced hobbyist, a market with a greater potential for immediate profitability and growth.

Many of us can drop $15K on a pro body and L glass no credit cards necessary, and I'll probably never take a photo for money.  I've probably blown more on greens fees and alcohol over the past couple of years, but I simply don't spend enough time taking photos to justify that kind of investment.  Perhaps one day that will change and I might actually give a flip about the opinions of the "elite"...

[Edwin Herdman]

One of the main reasons as to why Nikon or Canon make these 8 grand flagship cameras, is not so that people will really buy it - but so that they remain the class leaders in what they do.

"Class leader" and price / performance leader are two different things.  The video DSLR market has exploded, as everybody's noticed, and at the moment the 5D Mark II arguably gives them more prestige (and money) than the 1D and 1Ds models do.  But even that doesn't matter - if you just look at the spacing between model releases in each price category you'll see that there are two things missing right now - first, a new DSLR to compete with the D3000 / D3100 (rumors here insist one thing and then another - could just be that Canon will continue to flog older, video-less models for a while), and second, a new 5D Mark II update.

The 5D Mark II has been updated roughly every two years and it's time for another (though the wild card is that they've been reshuffling the lineup of late).

The one hole I see in Canon's high-end DSLR lineup is on wide-angle sports coverage, useful for situations like skateboarding (already mentioned here) and snowboarding.  The 1.3x crop factor doesn't cut it.  But if you're shooting field sports from the sidelines, in most situations the crop factor won't hurt too much - doesn't squeeze resolution as much as 1.6x, and a 300mm lens becomes nearly a 400mm, a 400 becomes a 500+, and so on.  Undoubtedly the crop factor makes juggling an inventory of lenses more complicated but in many cases it saves money to shoot with slightly wider glass.

[crjedi]

This rumor makes sense. I am thinking Canon wants to shift the focus on making the 1Ds MkIV the premiere dSLR then the next 5D. The 5DMkII changed the world but it didn't justify many to jump on to 1DMkIV with its price. Maybe they'll make the 1DsMkIV the RAW or 2K/4K cam that may go against RED while the 5DMkIII will still have .h264 with much better AF and complete feature set for video and improved sensor. I hope this is what happens. I just wish for the 24-70IS for Photokina.

[clicstudio]

I can't believe all these long waits for new stuff from Canon. Every time a 1 series body is introduced it either has a "big" problem, or just isn't as good as people expected for such a long wait. As an exlusive 1Dx user for 8 years I am disappointed and angry that Canon doesn't see that they are lagging behind Nikon and they don't give a crap. I understand the money makers are the consumer and prosumer cameras but there are 2 REAL choices in the Pro world: Canon or Nikon. The rest are just gravy. The D3 is, unfortunately, a better camera than the current 1D4.
The 5D2 is a nice camera but lacking the feel and focusing of the 1D's and I refuse to own one. Actually, I did own one for 2 days and I hated it. It went back to B&H right away.
I want a bigger MP camera with less noise and faster focusing, even in dim light, where the 1D4 really fails, and I want it soon!
What's this bullcrap about 2012? The world will end on 12.21.12 and I want lots of megapixels to capture it!!! 

[baronfizzy]

The whole post that this thread is based on is ridiculous. If Canon wasn't bringing out the 1Ds Mark IV this year, why would testers have had the cameras for several months now? How long do testers normally have cameras for?

[Stone]

The whole post that this thread is based on is ridiculous. If Canon wasn't bringing out the 1Ds Mark IV this year, why would testers have had the cameras for several months now? How long do testers normally have cameras for?

A camera, especially one as complex as the 1Ds can easily be in testing for well over a year.  If significant bugs are found, parts of the system might need to be tweaked or even completely re-engineered and testing begins all over again for that system.  Working 1DsIV prototypes have probably been in existence since 2008.... 

[baronfizzy]

Hmmmm, maybe not so ridiculous then, with that in mind. I would like to believe the rumour, especially since it's a new 5D Mark iii that I want, not the 1Ds Mark IV. I doubt I'm alone there either, but sadly the 5D being updated first is probably wishful thinking.

[RichT]

I'm not buying it.  5D3 ahead of 1Ds4?  1Ds is supposed to be the flagship.  Already folks are buying 5D2 over 1Ds3 to save coin, similar IQ for a lot less dough.  Why would Canon put their cutting-edge stuff in a $2.5 k box (5D3) when they can charge $8k for it by sticking it in a 1Ds body.

Would you rather sell 5,000 cameras at $8k a pop or 50,000 cameras at $2.5K?  Its all about total revenue.  Very, very few people amateur or professional can justify the pricetag of a 1Ds....

If it had a video mode that would knock your socks off you can bet they'd sell a LOT more than 5,000 of them. In fact it would make sense to debut such a feature first in a 1Ds, letting the early adopters pay out the wazoo for them (these are people who think getting a 2/3" sensor video camera for $5000 is a steal), and then once after that initial wave has waned THEN come out with the 5D3 with the same features for much less. Is it milking the (not so) poor customers for everything they've got? Absolutely. Does it make good business sense? Absolutely

[baronfizzy]

I'm not really concerned about video mode, or if the autofocus improves on the new version, all I want from the new 5D is to match the image quality of the 1D Mark IV, especially with the way it handles noise, but in a
full frame version.

[zxof]

so my guess 5D mark iii will be the first one to get Digic 5 and 1Ds mark IV will get dual Digic 5?

[nzmargolies]

this is the key a lot of people are missing.  I know i started my system with canon because i saw that they led the professional market with their flagship cameras.  I wanted to a) join a company that would allow me to (in my dreams) give me a camera to work up to and b) know im using the same brand as the pros.

if they lose the flagship market, selling their cheaper models wont be as easy.

This doesn't surprise me at all, as the world economy continues to turn around and disposable income goes up Canon needs sales to fund R&D for the next generation.  The 1Ds has never sold in great numbers and releasing a new $6 - $8K body that will NOT sell in great numbers probably doesn't make financial sense right now.

Yet there are a group of elite users that demand such a camera. These users also tend to have the coin to drop on 10K+ of lenses, multiple bodies, and CPS memberships. Also, people that use such a camera are influencers, a good word from them or some excellent work made by can build sales for Canon on the low end.

[Stone]

this is the key a lot of people are missing.  I know i started my system with canon because i saw that they led the professional market with their flagship cameras.  I wanted to a) join a company that would allow me to (in my dreams) give me a camera to work up to and b) know im using the same brand as the pros.

if they lose the flagship market, selling their cheaper models wont be as easy.

This doesn't surprise me at all, as the world economy continues to turn around and disposable income goes up Canon needs sales to fund R&D for the next generation.  The 1Ds has never sold in great numbers and releasing a new $6 - $8K body that will NOT sell in great numbers probably doesn't make financial sense right now.

Yet there are a group of elite users that demand such a camera. These users also tend to have the coin to drop on 10K+ of lenses, multiple bodies, and CPS memberships. Also, people that use such a camera are influencers, a good word from them or some excellent work made by can build sales for Canon on the low end.

No one said Canon should abandon their flagships, what I think they're doing is looking at the high-end market and seeing that they don't NEED to upgrade their flagship at this time since the 1DsIII is still very competitive with the competition.  Also it makes more sense to wait until we're closer to a D4x release so Nikon doesn't have a year to study Canon's new flagship which is what happened with the D3x.

[unfocused]

I actually feel sorry for Canon (and Nikon). It seems like they have a real dilemma.

Flagship cameras are essential to their business model. But, these cameras take a considerable amount of time and resources to develop. Technology is changing so rapidly that they run the risk that by the time the research, development and testing cycle is complete, the camera ends up lagging behind on technology. But, if you rush it to market and there's a problem, your reputation is shot.

On top of all that, when your customers are spending $6,000 to $8,000 they expect a camera that is going to be state of the art for more than six months or a year.  It's one thing to spend $1,000 on a camera and then have it replaced with a new model in a year. It's quite another to invest $6,000 in a camera that feels obsolete after a year.

I seriously doubt that these high-end cameras represent much if any profit to either company. They need them to maintain their reputations, but they can't be big profit makers. And, to make matters worse, they have to devote resources to these models, while constantly fending off challenges to their other lines from companies like Pentax, which desperately want a piece of the high-end "prosumer" market.

[Justin]

I don't feel sorry at all. This is what they do and do well.

Releasing a 5D successor makes good sense if they know they can sell them like crackcakes to film and still shooters alike. Even at $3500 they will sell thousands of them in the first few months. Hell they could use the same or rejiggered 21mpx sensor, address the myriad video features missing on the current 5D2, improve the AF, weather sealing, and give it a swivel screen and please the masses (mostly b/c there will always be swivel screen haters). Then with more R&D time Canon can leapfrog all competition and be competitive in medium format mpx range (DR will need to match of course) of 50mpx. 1Ds4 can become the flagship again for landscape and studio work in 2011. A new zoom 14-24 2.8 and a new 35 1.2 would complement perfectly.

I actually feel sorry for Canon (and Nikon). It seems like they have a real dilemma.

Flagship cameras are essential to their business model. But, these cameras take a considerable amount of time and resources to develop. Technology is changing so rapidly that they run the risk that by the time the research, development and testing cycle is complete, the camera ends up lagging behind on technology. But, if you rush it to market and there's a problem, your reputation is shot.

On top of all that, when your customers are spending $6,000 to $8,000 they expect a camera that is going to be state of the art for more than six months or a year.  It's one thing to spend $1,000 on a camera and then have it replaced with a new model in a year. It's quite another to invest $6,000 in a camera that feels obsolete after a year.

I seriously doubt that these high-end cameras represent much if any profit to either company. They need them to maintain their reputations, but they can't be big profit makers. And, to make matters worse, they have to devote resources to these models, while constantly fending off challenges to their other lines from companies like Pentax, which desperately want a piece of the high-end "prosumer" market.

[Rattle]

Very strange when the 5D mk3 would be released sooner than the 1Ds mk4.

I also want the a 'afforable' FF that can keep tracking my active son (running).
I would have bought the 1D mk4 if it was FF.

Nikon-guys must be laughing.

I don't know many sports, real stuff not staged, photographers who long for a FF body.

It doesn't matter which forum you read there is always going to be some person that is not happy with the current product offering.  That doesn't make them a bad company.  The key to market development is to appease the masses knowing full well that there are going to be some people left in the dust.