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Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« on: September 23, 2011, 07:19:14 PM »
What say me? A lot of unknown and exciting things are swirling around that November 3, 2011 announcement in Hollywood. I can tell you truthfully that I have seen just about every possible scenario. What’s true? For the moment I don’t know.

I think EOS will evolve a lot in the coming 12 months, the business of digital SLRs has changed with the advent of video in the segment. I figured I’d offer my opinion on the line partially based on things I’ve been told and things that just make sense to me.

I’ll start at the top of the EOS lineup and work my way down.

By the way, Photokina is next September in Cologne/Koln, Germany. See you there!

*This is NOT fact*

EOS 1D/1Ds I don’t think we’ll see this camera announced until 2012. I also see the amalgamation of the line has highly possible. If Canon has the technology to give big megapixels as well as frame rate. It makes no sense to produce two different bodies. I’m not sure if we’ve seen the last of APS-H, though I think it’s likely. I could see this body in the $5000-$6000 range.

5D Mark III/3D The camera most of the planet wants to see announced and shipped now! I don’t think it’s likely to appear before the end of 2011.

If in 2012 the top tier of cameras is merged, there will be a price gap a 5D3/3D could move up to.  Say, $3500. There could be a lot of advanced video features, big megapixels and an upgraded, but not pro body level AF system. I fully expect Canon to figure out a way to directly monetize the video features of DSLRs.

When? I’ve heard anytime between tomorrow and Photokina 2012.

6D One of the recent rumors has been the coming of a new full frame EOS body added to the lineup. It would be in the $2000 range. It would see a drop in megapixels from the 21 of the 5D Mark II and be solely designed for ISO performance. To meet the price point, I’d expect a modified 9 point AF (more crosstype sensors).

If the 5D3 moves up the latter in performance and price, a $2000 full frame camera at launch would be an industry first and a massive seller. Canon was the first company to break the $1000 price barrier with a DSLR, no reason they can’t do it again.

I can definitely see this as a possibility, though I’m not convinced of it yet.

*correction* The full frame Sony A850 launched at $2000 USD. Thanks for pointing it out.

7D Mark II I think the 7D will make it all the way through 2012 and into 2013. What is there to improve on the camera? How do you really make it better enough to justify a new model? If Canon is spending a lot of resources on developing 3 new full frame sensors, I could see APS-C remaining relatively unchanged.

The biggest upgrade I think to the 7D will be a price drop over the next 12 months.

60D As with the 7D, there’s really no need to upgrade this camera. It will only be 2 years come Photokina, and the cycle of camera updates is slowing down.

It’s a good little camera that sells well. I think we’ll see it last into 2013.

T3i/T3 More of the same here (a bit boring eh), I don’t see a new rebel in 2012 either. A domino in the APS-C line will have to fall before they all get an update. Using the same sensor in the 3 cameras is probably great for the bottom line. I can’t see them abandoning that mindset.

Mirrorless When Canon announces a mirrorless system, I think it’s going to be a standalone product. So it won’t be EF or EF-S compatible. I see Canon launching a unique product to their line, not more of the same. I think the low end of mirrorless cameras is a crowded world, especially with the rainbow of cameras Nikon just announced. So why add another bunch of cameras to the segment? I think the gold mine for Canon is convincing the North American market to buy a mirrorless camera. Their mirrorless camera. So it’s going to have to be different.

To be honest, I really have no great hypothesis of what they’re going to do. It’s something I’d have to think more on.

So that’s it, as of today, that’s the way I see the EOS lineup going. It’s based on some information I’ve received as well as some opinion.

cr

« Last Edit: September 24, 2011, 08:15:24 AM by Canon Rumors »
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Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« on: September 23, 2011, 07:19:14 PM »

ions

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2011, 07:28:59 PM »
Lucid, rational and intelligent. Very well thought out and I completely agree. Let's hope Canon is as smart.
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Edwin Herdman

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2011, 07:30:37 PM »
I'm horribly tempted to just write "yeah ok" at this point...

alipaulphotography

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2011, 07:30:43 PM »
Interesting thoughts.
I imagine much of the same. Just wish canon would be fighting for innovation rather than max profit.

The world is waiting on a 5D MK III and I really hope it isnt an anti climax. 6D does sounds very appealing also!

YoukY63

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2011, 08:09:54 PM »
I disagree on almost every point, but hey, that's why it is called a personal opinion.  ;)

1D: I don't see them being merged. They are professional tools, not intended to the same people. And as every tool, they are made for a special job. So stop one of them and you make a lot of pro users very unhappy. Furthermore, if they are really merging, why the price would be closer to the cheaper model? If it become a double side knife, it would probably cost more than a previous single side one. :P

5D3: I expect it for Photokina 2012. No emergency to release it earlier. Still great sells, and no opponents.

3D: a cheaper FF camera is highly possible. We have a huge wolrd crisis, offering a cheaper option is always welcome and a smart move from companies. But if so, it would just be a cheap made 5DII: same sensor, same AF, plastic body. Maybe EVF?

7DII: after 1Ds, that is probably the most urgent body to replace! Others company released (Sony a77) or will release soon (Pentax, Nikon) new cameras with higher specs. I insist very much on the word "new", because it is usually the most important word for people buying a camera (we see here every day people telling they won't buy a 5DII because it is "old" while they is no new competitor, what would happen if there were a recent competitor?  ::))

60D: will be replaced in 6 months, as usually (every 18 months). Maybe it can be pushed until next Photokina (Sept.)

600D: to not replace it next year means to kill the sells and incomes. These entry bodies need to be replaced frequently (cf my "new" comment earlier). So it will be replaced next January/February as usually. Then, which sensor? Still the same? For the 3rd time? I don't think so. That's why it will push Canon to replace the higher model 7D earlier too.
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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2011, 08:23:50 PM »
I appreciate the disagreement, however. Canon is not releasing 6 new DSLRs in the next 12 months.

One of the biggest reasons is the economy of the planet at the moment. That's why I think the APS-C cameras will be left alone, they're the cameras people buy with disposable income.

Good points though.
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Bob Howland

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2011, 08:42:20 PM »
I have a couple problems with your FF predictions.

1. A reduction in pixel count and a heavy emphasis on DR and high ISO image quality are not things that would be highly valued by buyers of an entry level FF camera. These attributes, however, would be highly valued by wedding photographers and those of us addicted to photography in ridiculously low light levels. And these buyers would also want a body that is more durable and more sophisticated than entry level, and less expensive than a 1D-class body.

2. If the 5D2 vs. 1DsMk3 fiasco proved anything, it is that people will buy a very high resolution sensor in a prosumer class body. There is simply no reason why the highest resolution body in the lineup also has to be the most expensive.

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2011, 08:42:20 PM »

aaronofnero

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2011, 09:01:14 PM »
well, i would imagine this all plays into competition as well as furthering their current roster. it would be a bit of a stretch, but I feel like (at least from what I see in my industry and prior schooling - amidst consumers) that Canon may be willing to release products simply in a possible attempt to slightly one-up other companies so to speak (and not just Nikon).

Keep in mind, I am speaking hypothetically, and this sense of logic is more from my ass than any serious survey of business policy. I'm new to this game.

what if, and I use "if" very strongly as i have no real foundation for this assessment, Canon decided to release a camera the competes directly with a level designated to a hierarchy of competitive gear - both video and photo specified.   

Canon's version of Hasselblad's H4D line. a high end medium format camera specifically dedicated to the professional studio / model photographer.

Canon's version of a Red Epic / Sony F65 / Arri Alexa. video dedicated camera, sized in moderation and weight, with everything anyone could expect out of a film-dedicated camera. I understand Canon has a broadcast line, but I really don't know where that would continue to go.

Canon's version of a Red Scarlet / Red One MX / Sony PMW-F3 / Sony FS100 / Panasonic AF100. Now this is a pretty big price range amidst these suggestions, but I wouldn't expect Canon to necessarily step to 25k or stoop as low as 5k for a mid-level pro camera / camcorder. Maybe this could even be two separate categories? Although i wouldn't expect Canon to really get that diversified in their line for just video intent. Maybe the 5dmk3 will compete with the FS100 market, maintaining the EF mount, and then a PL mount video camera to compete with Red One / Sony F3.

I imagine the 1D/1Dsmk4 would stick to appealing to the sports photographers, with the video as a mild bonus. Maybe step up their game along side whatever may be anticipated for a Nikon D4.

By and large I could see a 6D / 3D being an additional item that maybe excels above the 7D in video, but still keeps the pro-photographer in mind. Much like what you mentioned as well, something that really pushes ISO with a small megapixel count.  3D maybe being a more video focused and a 6D more photo focused? or vice versa? i don't really know

as for the remainder of the line, I see that sort of continuing as you had already mentioned.. 7dmk2, t4i, 70d, whatever they may be called. those seem to have set-price margins that consumers who have a certain income or amount of money they can optionally spend on a camera will stand by. With this, i'd assume there to be little advances here and there, but nothing too insane.  Just improvements to quality and character of each line. I could see upgraded chips, but sensor sizes to remain the same. there are probably only so many ways to upgrade a camera within the same price point. People generally always want what's new, even if the only upgrade is a shiny new shell. Look at the way cars are updated every year. People who trade in their 2011 Mercedes for a 2012 model, that might have a nicer aerodynamic look. not saying this correlates directly, but I don't see how it would hurt sales to replace models with similar interiors or functionality if they stay at the same price point.

eh i don't really know. just what i would assume a company who wants to attempt to grow and dominate a market would take steps towards. my ideas tend to be outlandish, but I suppose that's what makes curiosity fun and painful haha

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2011, 10:58:16 PM »
I think the digic5 will make it into one or more of the dslrs this year.  Probably enough of a change to go from 600D to 650D.  I wonder what bells and whistles the digic5 will enable for video.

As for new sensors, I guess we'll just have to wait and see.

Manwithacamera

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2011, 11:52:02 PM »
I hope, information about 5D Mark III is going to leak soon like iPhone 4. 8)

Zuuyi

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2011, 11:52:54 PM »
Tommorow - 12 Months
November 3rd, 2011
5Dmk3 - Welcome to Hollywod. Same Full Frame. Digic V. No More Megapixels, we don't need them.  Big push is in Video. And for god's sake no Rotating Screen.   If you can afford this camera you can get a secondary screen for video; and for on the go photographer's the screen is the weakest point. Cycle says 2011; 3 years 1 month
which is November 2011(sounds familiar).  * Edit - And the fact that Red is having an annoucement the same day says High End  EOS & Video. Which Screams 5d3 to me*

Jan - Feb 2012
1Dmk5 - Olympics. Speed. Speed. Speed. 4 year cycle says 2011. But I think early 2012.  Plus the current one is Digic 3 and that needs to be updated. Canon loves those huge L Lenses at sporting events; so they will release it Jan-Feb 2012 so they can update before June.

Feb - Mar 2012
7Dmk2 & T4i - I think they will be released at the same time Digic 5 of course. 7d going even further in the Video world. Feb-Mar 2012

13-24 months

January 2013
1DsmkIV - No rush but it is the flagship for studio photographers. 40 Megapixels, and not a pixel less. January 2013.

Feb - Mar 2013
T5i - Like Clockwork. The income sheet needs it's annual boost. Feb-Mar 2013

Summer - Fall 2013
60mkII - Updated; time for the 7dmk2 to sell.  Getting T2i, T3i, and T4i owners to upgrade for some more advanced video options. Summer - Fall 2013.

I don't see a 3d or 6d being released anytime soon.  They need to clean up the lines not add more. 
They offer 13 DSLR models.  They need to compact that list.  Plus I don't see them using "3d" unless it's 3-D.

My wish is the list being compacted to
1Ds - 5 Year Cycle  $7000
1D - 4 Year Cycle - $5000
5D - 3 Year Cycle - $2500
7D - 2 Year Cycle - $1500
XXD - 18 Month Cycle - $1000
XXXD - 1 Year Cycle - $750
XXXXD - 6 Month Cycle - $500

 




« Last Edit: September 23, 2011, 11:59:37 PM by Zuuyi »

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2011, 12:38:52 AM »
1D: I don't see them being merged. They are professional tools, not intended to the same people. And as every tool, they are made for a special job. So stop one of them and you make a lot of pro users very unhappy. Furthermore, if they are really merging, why the price would be closer to the cheaper model? If it become a double side knife, it would probably cost more than a previous single side one. :P

Neither group of pros would be unhappy with a merged 1D provided that it did everything that each of the split lines do.  So if Canon has the technology to have a FF high megapixel camera that can do 10 fps then both groups are happy.  The price would be lower because now they are designing and manufacturing only 1 body with the combined sales volume.

UncleFester

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2011, 01:14:03 AM »
A 5DIII probably will not go above $2500 USD. 2500 is the bang-for-buck cut-off point.
Also, 5Ders most likely will not want to pay $2000 for a sub-par FF.



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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #12 on: September 24, 2011, 01:14:03 AM »

Bokehmon

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2011, 01:18:52 AM »
Tommorow - 12 Months
November 3rd, 2011
5Dmk3 - Welcome to Hollywod. Same Full Frame. Digic V. No More Megapixels, we don't need them.  Big push is in Video. And for god's sake no Rotating Screen.   If you can afford this camera you can get a secondary screen for video; and for on the go photographer's the screen is the weakest point. Cycle says 2011; 3 years 1 month
which is November 2011(sounds familiar).  * Edit - And the fact that Red is having an annoucement the same day says High End  EOS & Video. Which Screams 5d3 to me*

Jan - Feb 2012
1Dmk5 - Olympics. Speed. Speed. Speed. 4 year cycle says 2011. But I think early 2012.  Plus the current one is Digic 3 and that needs to be updated. Canon loves those huge L Lenses at sporting events; so they will release it Jan-Feb 2012 so they can update before June.

Feb - Mar 2012
7Dmk2 & T4i - I think they will be released at the same time Digic 5 of course. 7d going even further in the Video world. Feb-Mar 2012

13-24 months

January 2013
1DsmkIV - No rush but it is the flagship for studio photographers. 40 Megapixels, and not a pixel less. January 2013.

Feb - Mar 2013
T5i - Like Clockwork. The income sheet needs it's annual boost. Feb-Mar 2013

Summer - Fall 2013
60mkII - Updated; time for the 7dmk2 to sell.  Getting T2i, T3i, and T4i owners to upgrade for some more advanced video options. Summer - Fall 2013.

I don't see a 3d or 6d being released anytime soon.  They need to clean up the lines not add more. 
They offer 13 DSLR models.  They need to compact that list.  Plus I don't see them using "3d" unless it's 3-D.

My wish is the list being compacted to
1Ds - 5 Year Cycle  $7000
1D - 4 Year Cycle - $5000
5D - 3 Year Cycle - $2500
7D - 2 Year Cycle - $1500
XXD - 18 Month Cycle - $1000
XXXD - 1 Year Cycle - $750
XXXXD - 6 Month Cycle - $500

 

I don't really see those life cycles being so long. 1DIV is also dual digic 4 not 3. Also, how are there 13 models being offered? If you really see what's in stock you'll see that there's only the 1D, 5DII, 7D, 60D, 600D, and the crappy low end one. that's like 6 models.

Zuuyi

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2011, 01:48:28 AM »
I don't really see those life cycles being so long. 1DIV is also dual digic 4 not 3. Also, how are there 13 models being offered? If you really see what's in stock you'll see that there's only the 1D, 5DII, 7D, 60D, 600D, and the crappy low end one. that's like 6 models.

I wrote the wrong processor on the 1Dmk4.  I included the Rebels in my count. The only XXD or XD I can really see added is a 4k EOS Video Camera my thought would be a 4d or 7dN (Depending on price point).  Two Studio Cameras (1DS & 5D), Two Field Cameras (1D & 7D), and a Prosumer Camera(60D).

But they really need to upgrade the 1D; because it's a hard sell over the 7D $3300 more for 2 FPS and a pro body.

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Re: Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina
« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2011, 01:48:28 AM »