Opinion - What EOS Will Look Like by Photokina

[J. McCabe]

Jan - Feb 2012
1Dmk5 - Olympics. Speed. Speed. Speed. 4 year cycle says 2011. But I think early 2012.  Plus the current one is Digic 3 and that needs to be updated. Canon loves those huge L Lenses at sporting events; so they will release it Jan-Feb 2012 so they can update before June.

My thoughts exactly - that Canon would like to have a new body, as well as the new 500mm & 600mm lenses, out in time for the Summer Olympics in July-August 2012.

I wouldn't be surprised if the 7Dmk2 came out in time for the olympics as well.

60mkII - Updated; time for the 7dmk2 to sell.  Getting T2i, T3i, and T4i owners to upgrade for some more advanced video options. Summer - Fall 2013.

I would think this one would be named 70D.


My impression is Canon's high end cameras need an updates, so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the rest of the cameras would be updated in 2013.

E.g. the 18 months cycle would have a 70D late 2011 / early 2012, I wouldn't be surprised if Canon waited to late 2013 to give it the 7Dmk2's sensor, with similar logic applied to the 700D.

The 1000D took almost three years to upgrade, I wouldn't be surprised if the 1100D took 2+ years to upgrade.

[Mark D5 TEAM II]

Based on all the rumors so far, I still see a paper launch of at least one FF DSLR before the year ends, with availability early next year. 1Ds4 vaporware would solidify just before London 2012. EOS dash 3 D is a very feasible name for another FF body if 5D3 becomes the lower-end FF since there was an EOS-3 (the only other hyphenated EOS aside from the EOS-1) and it was essentially a vertical grip-less EOS-1 with 45-pt. Eye-Controlled Focus. If some people are afraid that it would get confused with a "3-dimensional picture-taking" camera then they're obviously not the target-market (n00bs who never shot film SLRs like the EOS-3 that kicked the crap out of the F4, F5 & F6).

6D or 9D would be the FF Rebel at ~$1500.

[spam]

If Digic V really is as big upgrade as Canon wants us to believe then I'd also expect them to upgrade all dSLRs fairly soon, at least mid to high end. I'd guess that Digic V is at least one of the key components that has kept Canon from 1Ds and 5D upgrades, and now it's ready, at least the digicam version.

Another factor is sensors which obviously haven't been up to Sony's level since the D7000/K5 (etc) sensor came out. Hopefully Canon has managed to get the read noise doen too, and combinedwith Digic V we'll hopefully see some really standout models from Canon again.

Mirrorless: My guess is something with bigger sensor than Nikon, but maybe not as big as 1.6 crop. 2x crop like m4/3 seems like a good compromize to me, but it really could be anything. Good compatibility with EF/EF-S is important IMO, even extremely important. Nikon has really set the standard there whith phase detect on the sensor. I'm not sure that Canon mirrorless customer will actually use their current lenses, but it's really important  as a customer loyalty and sales argument.

[Ivar]

Tommorow - 12 Months

Jan - Feb 2012
1Dmk5 - Olympics. Speed. Speed. Speed. 4 year cycle says 2011. But I think early 2012.  Plus the current one is Digic 3 and that needs to be updated. Canon loves those huge L Lenses at sporting events; so they will release it Jan-Feb 2012 so they can update before June.

You have mixed things up - the 1D Mk4 is currently 2 years old, with DIGIC 4.

But I think it is correct that it will be replaced before the traditional 3 years cycle this time, as soon as Nikon D4 is released. My bet includes also going to FF.

13-24 months

January 2013
1DsmkIV - No rush but it is the flagship for studio photographers. 40 Megapixels, and not a pixel less. January 2013.

Again, it depends very much what Nikon is up to with the D3x successor. I'd imagine though it is going to be updated rather earlier as it is not even much competitior to the current Nikon D3x. So I predict that the release is rather close to the release of the 1D Mk5, at the latest for Photokina next year.

All that means I belive the merging of 1D & 1Ds will not take place this time, but the 1D moves to FF.

[Mark D5 TEAM II]

Keith Cooper's take: 

Speculation time ...I note that there is a similar list at CR, and since I disagree with many of their thoughts, I thought I'd put up my own thoughts (so BIG pinch of salt required)

    1Ds4 - to launch this year
    1D5 - no merger yet. Maybe a new 1D mark 5 in 2012, with internals based on 1Ds4 (Digic V) - limited availability for the Olympics
    5D3 - a Photokina 2012 camera
    7D2 - late 2012/early 2013 - new higher MP sensor and faster
    70D - 2013
    650D - 2012 (similar sensor but Digic V)
    and some wild cards...
    3D - destined to remain in 'Fabled' status for quite some time
    6D, 8D, 9D - more potential model numbers

[Canon Rumors]

Keith Cooper's take: 

Speculation time ...I note that there is a similar list at CR, and since I disagree with many of their thoughts, I thought I'd put up my own thoughts (so BIG pinch of salt required)

    1Ds4 - to launch this year
    1D5 - no merger yet. Maybe a new 1D mark 5 in 2012, with internals based on 1Ds4 (Digic V) - limited availability for the Olympics
    5D3 - a Photokina 2012 camera
    7D2 - late 2012/early 2013 - new higher MP sensor and faster
    70D - 2013
    650D - 2012 (similar sensor but Digic V)
    and some wild cards...
    3D - destined to remain in 'Fabled' status for quite some time
    6D, 8D, 9D - more potential model numbers

We're pretty close other than the EOS-1s, Keith wants a 1Ds Mark IV pretty badly... perhaps he can will it to happen!

My mind will probably change in the next month when the real leaks start to happen about November 3.

[Babarous]

"If the 5D3 moves up the latter in performance and price, a $2000 full frame camera at launch would be an industry first and a massive seller. Canon was the first company to break the $1000 price barrier with a DSLR, no reason they can’t do it again."

What the heck? A850 was full frame and under $2000 at launch date.

[Canon Rumors]

"If the 5D3 moves up the latter in performance and price, a $2000 full frame camera at launch would be an industry first and a massive seller. Canon was the first company to break the $1000 price barrier with a DSLR, no reason they can’t do it again."

What the heck? A850 was full frame and under $2000 at launch date.

You're right, I forget Sony exists. The correction has been posted.

[Sebmour]

I always find it funny when people talk bad about the AF system of the 5DII. The centre point is the best on the market. The rest are a little useless unless under good light. (I have tracked Nascar coming towards me in Montreal, Canada with my 200 f2LIS)

The AF on my 1D4 is junk in low light. As soon as I pass 3200 ISO...my AF will not lock on lower contrast subject while my 5DII will lock on right away. The D3 series locks on without any issues also. (This has been tested in my home under the same condition for all 3 cameras)

Just to point out...since people will have a hard time believing my fact above, I shoot 1D4, 5DII, 24LII, 35L, 50 1.4, 85LII, 135L, 200LIS. In both cameras I use the S type focusing screen.

I have email Canon CPS...still awaiting a reply after 2 weeks!

I am hoping for a 5DIII.
I am wishing for a FF of 24MP, ISO 6400 clean like ISO 1600 (on 5DII), Same center point AF but better side points AF. Same Battery, 100% viewfinder with a good magnification, improvement on weather sealing (rubber gasket instead of foam), same ergonomics, same IQ (this is the hard part), 5FPS, Full HD 24, 30 and 60 FPS with a better rendering. This would be perfect for me and I would pay 3500-4000$ for such a camera.

I am also wishing for an APS-H Ef mount camcorder. Full HD, 24, 30, 60, 120 FPS, B&W viewfinder, XLR sound connectors, Integrated ND's, Zebra, Focus assist, full HD monitor output, 4" LCD screen for focus puller. I would pay 4000-5000$ for such a camcorder.

ENjoy the day!

[Gothmoth]

i think canon will of course make an adapter for EF lenses to their mirrorless system.
i see no reason why they should not.

[sandro]

They should just stop using this 3y cycle for products that just leaves old products around where the competition advances. They should release a NEW revolutionary product NOW, I don't care when the previous model was released.
I care for video mainly and the video part is so so so prehistoric.

[bvukich]

You're right, I forget Sony exists. The correction has been posted.

Don't feel bad, it's relatively easy to do.

I don't know if I have a case of "pick on the new kid" or not, but I just don't see any compelling argument to buy into the Sony ecosphere (or lack thereof).

Canon, Nikon, even Pentax; I can see the benefits to each, depending on where you're coming from, and where you're headed.  Sony, not so much.  They make some good sensors, but I think Nikon does a better job of wrapping a camera around them than Sony themselves.  Plus Nikon, like Canon, actually has an ecosphere.  Sony has minimal third party support, and only recently could you even rent lenses anywhere.

I'm admittedly biased against the Sony the parent company, and have a smoldering hatred for some of their subsidiaries; but I'll gladly give credit where credit is due.  I'm just not confident they're in it for the long haul.  That being said, I do hope they are.  More competition is ALWAYS better for the customer.  And if nothing else, they will (and probably already have) drive Canon and Nikon to release better products at a faster pace.

[pedro]

I am hoping for a 5DIII.
I am wishing for a FF of 24MP, ISO 6400 clean like ISO 1600 (on 5DII), Same center point AF but better side points AF. Same Battery, 100% viewfinder with a good magnification, improvement on weather sealing (rubber gasket instead of foam), same ergonomics, same IQ (this is the hard part), 5FPS, Full HD 24, 30 and 60 FPS with a better rendering. This would be perfect for me and I would pay 3500-4000$ for such a camera.

@Sebmour: I do not understand a lot of tech. So given your inmense knowledge you get very easily to an actual calculation for a 5Diii according to that. My only question is: If that was real, wouldn't it come to a real gap in pricing between a next lower 7D? Your draft leaves room for a 6D in the US $ 2000-2500 segment then. If such a body was aimed towards lesser MP and equal ISO performance, lesser video facilities (which never will use, once going back FF after 30 years) I'll buy that day one.  Cheers, Pedro

[x-vision]

I think EOS will evolve a lot in the coming 12 months, the business of digital SLRs has changed with the advent of video in the segment. I figured I’d offer my opinion on the line partially based on things I’ve been told and things that just make sense to me.

Some of your points make a lot of sense but I also have different views on others.

A merged 1-series (1DV)
I find it strange that this camera is not out yet.
Canon, the pioneer of large DSLR sensors, currently does not have a pro FF model on the market - after the 1DsIII has been officially discontinued in some countries (e.g. Canada) and unofficially discontinued in others.

6D
With a merged 1-series, it is very likely that we'll see two FF models positioned under the king of the hill.
If I was working for Canon marketing, the 5-series will be split into a 5DIII ($2500) and a little 1-series ($4000).
The little 1-series camera will be basically the 1-series but without the integrated grip and some other minor differences.

7DII, 70D, etc.
The business of DSLRs has changed indeed.
With the D7000 and the A77/Nex-7, the price point of the 'enthusiast' class of cameras has moved down to $1200.
At the same time, we see mirrorless eating at the bottom of the DSLR market.
I thus expect some major changes of the non-FF lineup.
Canon needs an ultra-compact Rebel (if not mirrorless) and an appealing $1200 offering.
This will affect all 1.6x models. Can't predict at this time what will happen but I see re-alignments in all three model lines - Rebel, xxD, and 7D. 

[Meh]

More competition is ALWAYS better for the customer.  And if nothing else, they will (and probably already have) drive Canon and Nikon to release better products at a faster pace.

Absolutely!