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Author Topic: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people  (Read 3700 times)

mackguyver

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Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« on: October 02, 2013, 10:32:07 AM »
After reading too many posts to remember where people are wondering if they should wait for the next big thing, I want to offer some advice:

  • If the lens/camera JUST came out (and isn't a Rebel), it will be years before the next one, so please don't ask about the 200-400 1.4x II or 6D II anytime soon
  • If it's a lens, buy the current one if you need it.  If they announce a new one right away, you can either return the lens you just bought (if possible) or sell it for nearly or sometimes even more than what you just paid
  • If it's a body, check the timelines of how often Canon updates them.  The 1D series is many years apart, the 5D (and probably 6D) is 3-4 years apart, the x0D series about 2 years, and the Rebels about a year.  If it's been that long since the current model came out, deal with what you have or buy the current model if you need it.  Bodies, unlike lenses, don't hold their value well, so it can be worth the wait in some cases.  Of course, Canon doesn't always follow these timelines (5D III for example) so it's harder to play the waiting game.
  • Finally, most lenses are only refreshed every 5-7 years, at best, and those are usually the common Pro lenses (24-70, 70-200).  Other lenses like the 50 f/1.4 may never get an upgrade as long they keep selling so well.  Or maybe it just seems like it.
I'm sure other members will have better advice to tack onto this post.
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Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« on: October 02, 2013, 10:32:07 AM »

takesome1

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2013, 10:42:19 AM »
After reading too many posts to remember where people are wondering if they should wait for the next big thing, I want to offer some advice:

  • If the lens/camera JUST came out (and isn't a Rebel), it will be years before the next one, so please don't ask about the 200-400 1.4x II or 6D II anytime soon
  • If it's a lens, buy the current one if you need it.  If they announce a new one right away, you can either return the lens you just bought (if possible) or sell it for nearly or sometimes even more than what you just paid
  • If it's a body, check the timelines of how often Canon updates them.  The 1D series is many years apart, the 5D (and probably 6D) is 3-4 years apart, the x0D series about 2 years, and the Rebels about a year.  If it's been that long since the current model came out, deal with what you have or buy the current model if you need it.  Bodies, unlike lenses, don't hold their value well, so it can be worth the wait in some cases.  Of course, Canon doesn't always follow these timelines (5D III for example) so it's harder to play the waiting game.
  • Finally, most lenses are only refreshed every 5-7 years, at best, and those are usually the common Pro lenses (24-70, 70-200).  Other lenses like the 50 f/1.4 may never get an upgrade as long they keep selling so well.  Or maybe it just seems like it.
I'm sure other members will have better advice to tack onto this post.

I am sorry but I think you miss understand this forum. It is "Canon Rumors" and since someone wants to buy a lens they would consult here to find out the latest "Rumor" so they know if they should wait or not.

Your advice would be very sound in a different forum.

mackguyver

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2013, 11:08:03 AM »
I could respond to your "bait" post, but I don't have any interest in engaging you.  Please take your negativity elsewhere.
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takesome1

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2013, 11:16:56 AM »
I could respond to your "bait" post, but I don't have any interest in engaging you.  Please take your negativity elsewhere.

I found the thread to be negative and not tolerant of those asking questions.

But you did say "please don't ask" in your post.

neuroanatomist

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2013, 11:46:34 AM »
It is "Canon Rumors" and since someone wants to buy a lens they would consult here to find out the latest "Rumor" so they know if they should wait or not.

I read a rumor here on CR that there will be a 100-400L II announced at PMA.  No, I don't mean the PMA@CES in January, 2014.  I mean PMA in 2008.  It was the 9th post ever on CR (and FWIW, a 100-400 update was also mentioned in the 7th post on CR, along with a 24-70/2.8L IS). 

Rumors make for excellent guidance on purchase decisions, don't they?   ::)

The above advice is quite sound, and I'd argue that it's even more relevant here on CR than elsewhere...
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takesome1

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2013, 12:00:26 PM »
It is "Canon Rumors" and since someone wants to buy a lens they would consult here to find out the latest "Rumor" so they know if they should wait or not.

I read a rumor here on CR that there will be a 100-400L II announced at PMA.  No, I don't mean the PMA@CES in January, 2014.  I mean PMA in 2008.  It was the 9th post ever on CR (and FWIW, a 100-400 update was also mentioned in the 7th post on CR, along with a 24-70/2.8L IS). 

Rumors make for excellent guidance on purchase decisions, don't they?   ::)

The above advice is quite sound, and I'd argue that it's even more relevant here on CR than elsewhere...


I agree the advice is sound. When you first see the title it creates the impression that one shouldn't even ask these questions. The OP said "After reading to many posts..." 

I would think that this forum would be a very appropriate forum to pose such a question.

distant.star

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2013, 12:16:07 PM »
.
Should I respond to this now?

Or should I wait until it gets rowdy?

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2013, 12:16:07 PM »

Don Haines

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2013, 12:41:55 PM »
.
Should I respond to this now?

Or should I wait until it gets rowdy?

I don't think you should wait... you will miss being rowdy now.... What if you wait for a couple of years to get rowdy? Will you regret all those lost opportunities to have been rowdy? :)

More seriously, the decision to wait or jump in now is a personal decision that has no general answer... far too many variables to consider.....
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9VIII

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2013, 12:56:18 PM »
It's funny, last winter everyone was saying "there's no way the 200-400 is coming out this year, don't tell anyone to consider it in their purchases." And here we are, the lens released this summer, and people have it in their hands.

I think there is a sort of "critical mass" of rumors where you can pretty safely bet on something happening.

The mass testing of the 200-400 at the Olympics was a pretty good indicator, and there were multiple in hand prototype rumors.
When someone says "it's coming just trust me" that's one thing. Once they start showing the thing off at trade shows, that's another.

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mackguyver

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2013, 01:05:39 PM »
.
Should I respond to this now?

Or should I wait until it gets rowdy?

I don't think you should wait... you will miss being rowdy now.... What if you wait for a couple of years to get rowdy? Will you regret all those lost opportunities to have been rowdy? :)
You guys are funny!  I wasn't expecting this get rowdy, but I'm sorry it hasn't gotten crazy enough for a locked post.  I guess my next post will have to be something like "Please join my 100-400 II Vigil" or something really obnoxious like "Advice for people not smart enough to use Nikon" oops, that would include me ;)
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mackguyver

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2013, 01:07:23 PM »
It's funny, last winter everyone was saying "there's no way the 200-400 is coming out this year, don't tell anyone to consider it in their purchases." And here we are, the lens released this summer, and people have it in their hands.

I think there is a sort of "critical mass" of rumors where you can pretty safely bet on something happening.

The mass testing of the 200-400 at the Olympics was a pretty good indicator, and there were multiple in hand prototype rumors.
When someone says "it's coming just trust me" that's one thing. Once they start showing the thing off at trade shows, that's another.
I definitely agree when it's a lens that's been announced, even one announced that far ahead.  I know CR Guy tries his best to keep on top of lenses, but even he admits that they are the hardest to predict, and probably the best kept secrets at Canon.
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Don Haines

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2013, 01:26:09 PM »
It's funny, last winter everyone was saying "there's no way the 200-400 is coming out this year, don't tell anyone to consider it in their purchases." And here we are, the lens released this summer, and people have it in their hands.

I think there is a sort of "critical mass" of rumors where you can pretty safely bet on something happening.

The mass testing of the 200-400 at the Olympics was a pretty good indicator, and there were multiple in hand prototype rumors.
When someone says "it's coming just trust me" that's one thing. Once they start showing the thing off at trade shows, that's another.

The really big "big whites" are a lot harder to test in public without being noticed, but smaller lenses can escape such scrutiny.

For example, let's pick on an updated 400F5.6 lens.... From the outside it really wouldn't look a lot different than the old one so you could walk around with a prototype in a crowd and nobody would notice it.  It's a 20 year old lens, It is more than due to be updated, and it could happen later on today, or it could be another 10 years from now. Since it is not a prestige lens, I would not expect to see pre or early production models appear at trade shows... I doubt anyone will know it is coming until it is officially released.

The 800F5.6 is a different story... As Canon's longest (current) lens, you would expect to see it in the hands of the select few at important venues before it is released... particularly if they go crazy and add a built-in teleconverter...
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unfocused

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2013, 02:58:03 PM »
Taking this post in the spirit in which I believe it was posted (tongue in cheek) I would just point out that there really is no good reason why anyone would ask people on this forum when the next big thing is coming out.

The last I checked, there are no Canon executives participating in this forum, so whenever anyone asks such a question they are always going to get a variety of educated and uneducated guesses by persons with no concrete knowledge. At best, people will get advice based on past performance, and as everyone should know, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Still, people will continue to ask and others will continue to offer their opinions under the guise of imagined expertise.
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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2013, 02:58:03 PM »

mackguyver

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2013, 03:17:39 PM »
Taking this post in the spirit in which I believe it was posted (tongue in cheek) I would just point out that there really is no good reason why anyone would ask people on this forum when the next big thing is coming out.

The last I checked, there are no Canon executives participating in this forum, so whenever anyone asks such a question they are always going to get a variety of educated and uneducated guesses by persons with no concrete knowledge. At best, people will get advice based on past performance, and as everyone should know, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

Still, people will continue to ask and others will continue to offer their opinions under the guise of imagined expertise.
Yes the post was meant to be half serious, half sarcasm.  I think we need to try to recruit the FakeChuckWestfall to participate in the forum, though, so we can find out what's really going on at Canon USA  ;)
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wickidwombat

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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2013, 12:48:05 AM »
After reading too many posts to remember where people are wondering if they should wait for the next big thing, I want to offer some advice:

  • If the lens/camera JUST came out (and isn't a Rebel), it will be years before the next one, so please don't ask about the 200-400 1.4x II or 6D II anytime soon
  • If it's a lens, buy the current one if you need it.  If they announce a new one right away, you can either return the lens you just bought (if possible) or sell it for nearly or sometimes even more than what you just paid
  • If it's a body, check the timelines of how often Canon updates them.  The 1D series is many years apart, the 5D (and probably 6D) is 3-4 years apart, the x0D series about 2 years, and the Rebels about a year.  If it's been that long since the current model came out, deal with what you have or buy the current model if you need it.  Bodies, unlike lenses, don't hold their value well, so it can be worth the wait in some cases.  Of course, Canon doesn't always follow these timelines (5D III for example) so it's harder to play the waiting game.
  • Finally, most lenses are only refreshed every 5-7 years, at best, and those are usually the common Pro lenses (24-70, 70-200).  Other lenses like the 50 f/1.4 may never get an upgrade as long they keep selling so well.  Or maybe it just seems like it.
I'm sure other members will have better advice to tack onto this post.

nice work

this should be a sticky
also you forgot to add should i change to Nikon because itz gotz teh DR and i need to shoot the butthole of a bear in cave underexposed 8 stops and raise it 45 stops in post
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Re: Advice for "Should I wait for ____" people
« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2013, 12:48:05 AM »