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Author Topic: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]  (Read 45863 times)

hambergler

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #75 on: October 26, 2011, 01:24:19 PM »
There is no chance we will see a new 5D for at least a year. It just doesn't make any sense to release it anywhere close to the 1X. Not to mention, the traditional difference in release has been 5D a year after 1Ds ii, and 5D mkii a year after 1Ds iii.

Yeah it does if you actually look at who would potentially buy a 5D MkIII v a 1D X ... its all in who they are marketed too and what is on offer within the bodies.

Canon will not look to butcher their line up by making similar bodies ... there will be significant differences that will be enough for anyone even considering a FF to disseminate between the two (and any other FF they may bring to market).

In many ways, the 5DII 'butchered' the 1DsIII sales, and many 1Ds customers got a 5DII instead for the video and other reasons.  I agree that Canon will want to avoid that in the future.

The thing is, as the saying goes, you can't have your cake and eat it, too.  Canon does have to differentiate the 1D X from the 5DIII, and there are a couple of ways to do that.  One is time - the 5DIII comes out a year, or more (!) after the 1D X.  The other is features, and especially if the 5DIII is going to have more MP, count on it being substantially crippled in other ways - most likely frame rate and the AF system.  From a marketing standpoint, the two ways are probably on a continuum, i.e. the closer in time that the 5DIII comes compared to the 1D X, the more crippled is has to be.

So...people waiting for a 5DIII - do you want it announced on November 3rd, if it has 26 MP, 4 fps and the exact same AF as the 5DII?  Do you want it announced in March when the 1D X comes out, if it has 30 MP, 4.2 fps, and the 9 cross-type points of the xxD line?  Or do you want to wait for a late 2012 announcement with 2013 availability, if it has 36 MP, 4.5 fps, and 15 cross-type points?

You forgot to factor in what Nikon does as well.

The D700's AF system is infinitely better than that of the 5d mk II.  It's biggest gripe with most people is the lack of video which I'm sure they will be correcting this time around.

I'd much rather they cripple the FPS (3FPS) than the AF.  The D700 already has a 51 point system which is IMO better than everything currently available on the market besides the 1DX

IMO drop

weather sealing
magnesium body
lack of battery grip
dual card slots
worse FPS
worse ISO
smaller/worse LCD
less viewfinder coverage

if there isn't even 3x5 cross type points imo this camera will be a major disappointment.

This is assuming they are going to a 30+ MP sensor.

IMO they should design it to complement the 1DX and with that than it will be tempting to pick one up along with the 1DX. 
« Last Edit: October 26, 2011, 01:26:29 PM by hambergler »
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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #75 on: October 26, 2011, 01:24:19 PM »

neuroanatomist

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #76 on: October 26, 2011, 01:52:13 PM »
You forgot to factor in what Nikon does as well.

The D700 already has a 51 point system which is IMO better than everything currently available on the market besides the 1DX

Not really.  As I've stated before, the real competition between the two companies plays out on the battlefield of P&S cameras and entry-level dSLRs.  By the time comsumers are considering a high-end or pro body, most are invested in a system and inertia means they won't switch (empty threats on internet forums notwithstanding).

Why is the D700's AF better?  It's got 51 points, but if that's the basis, then more MP automatically make a camera better, too.  Physics and geometry tell us that the wider the baseline for a triangulation measurement, the more accurate the measurment.  AFAIK, all Nikon AF systems use f/5.6-sensitive line sensors.  Canon systems have up to f/2.8-sensitive line sensors, which are more accurate than f/5.6-sensitive points.  Just one more thing to consider...
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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #77 on: October 26, 2011, 02:01:00 PM »
Also, until now Nikon still can't figure out how to make cross-type sensors away from the center of the frame, even their much-ballyhooed 51-pt. AF sensor only has cross-type sensors in a narrow 3x5 column in the center, an incremental improvement over the 45-pt. AF w/ 7 cross-type center AF points from the first EOS-1 models in the 90's. They don't even have dedicated AF CPUs, so many users resort to using only 11 or 21 of those 51pts. to increase responsiveness and initial acquisition.
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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #78 on: October 26, 2011, 02:11:13 PM »
There is no chance we will see a new 5D for at least a year. It just doesn't make any sense to release it anywhere close to the 1X. Not to mention, the traditional difference in release has been 5D a year after 1Ds ii, and 5D mkii a year after 1Ds iii.
What do you mean "no chance"?

You have no idea what Canon is planning for the 5D3. It may be released in the next few days, next month, March 2012, June 2012, September 2012 etc. We have not had this situation before where this is EOS 's 25th year with olympics also it's over it's 3 year cycle significantly by the time it gets shipped.

Why can't Canon release the 5D3 near the 1DX - firstly they're reshuffling their lineup and secondly the 1DX and 5D3 are totally different target markets.

Totally different markets?  I doubt that.  They'd have to nerf the 5dmrkiii pretty bad for it not to cannibalize any 1DX sales.  I agree with neuroanatomist when he says that "time" is a good way to differentiate the two. Plus the mrkii is still selling well. So for all of the reasons mentioned, the probability of getting your hands on a 5Diii within a year is very low.

But for the sake of discussion, say they did want to differentiate it with fps. Would people be happy with 36MP at 2fps(slower than its predecessor)?



hambergler

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #79 on: October 26, 2011, 02:22:31 PM »
You forgot to factor in what Nikon does as well.

The D700 already has a 51 point system which is IMO better than everything currently available on the market besides the 1DX

Not really.  As I've stated before, the real competition between the two companies plays out on the battlefield of P&S cameras and entry-level dSLRs.  By the time comsumers are considering a high-end or pro body, most are invested in a system and inertia means they won't switch (empty threats on internet forums notwithstanding).

Why is the D700's AF better?  It's got 51 points, but if that's the basis, then more MP automatically make a camera better, too.  Physics and geometry tell us that the wider the baseline for a triangulation measurement, the more accurate the measurment.  AFAIK, all Nikon AF systems use f/5.6-sensitive line sensors.  Canon systems have up to f/2.8-sensitive line sensors, which are more accurate than f/5.6-sensitive points.  Just one more thing to consider...

More is definitely not better but in this case I would take Nikons AF system over the 19 point in the 7D which people have been clamoring for.

I own a 7D.  Have used a D700 and a 5d/5d Mk II.  D700 AF is much better in low light than the other 3 (Canon 7D, 5D II, and 5D.  That said I have not used the 1D Mark IV or 1Ds Mark III so am unfamiliar with canon's 51 point system.
« Last Edit: October 26, 2011, 02:24:33 PM by hambergler »
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willhuff.net

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #80 on: October 26, 2011, 02:59:12 PM »
On another site, I read someone's hands on review of the 1DX and he said he overheard two Canon employees hinting at the November announcement. The writer said that it would make a lot of people happy.

neuroanatomist

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #81 on: October 26, 2011, 03:39:35 PM »
On another site, I read someone's hands on review of the 1DX and he said he overheard two Canon employees hinting at the November announcement. The writer said that it would make a lot of people happy.

It's a Hollywood announcement. Maybe it's an X Mark I Electronic Clapperboard that will make a lot of 2nd ACs happy...   :P
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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #81 on: October 26, 2011, 03:39:35 PM »

moreorless

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #82 on: October 26, 2011, 03:47:32 PM »
Totally different markets?  I doubt that.  They'd have to nerf the 5dmrkiii pretty bad for it not to cannibalize any 1DX sales.  I agree with neuroanatomist when he says that "time" is a good way to differentiate the two. Plus the mrkii is still selling well. So for all of the reasons mentioned, the probability of getting your hands on a 5Diii within a year is very low.

If Canon don't release any other FF camera in the near future the 1DX will obviously benefit as some may buy it even if its features don't totally suit them but I don't see that as "cannibalizing" 1DX sales if they release something more suitable for those users.

The markets just seem far more different than the 1Ds mk3/ and 5D mk2, there you had two bodies sold on MP first with the higher end one also giving some of the 1D functionality(decent FPS, high end AF, high end double grip build).  Not everyone may have been happy with the 5D's AF and build but equally the 1Ds mk3's AF and build/size plus the prenuim they came at was probabley overkill.

Quote
But for the sake of discussion, say they did want to differentiate it with fps. Would people be happy with 36MP at 2fps(slower than its predecessor)?

The 1DX processor seems to hint that 3 FPS for 36 megapixels which would I'd guess keep most users happy and make sure it stayed well away from the 1DX.

If your getting below 3 FPS then I'd say that would depend on the cameras market, if its the only FF body besides the 1DX  thats perhaps too low but if theres also a lower megapixel 5D sized body with higher FPS then the ultra high megapixel body would I'd guess be mainly selling to the landscape/studio market were FPS isnt that important.

moreorless

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #83 on: October 26, 2011, 03:50:28 PM »
On another site, I read someone's hands on review of the 1DX and he said he overheard two Canon employees hinting at the November announcement. The writer said that it would make a lot of people happy.

It's a Hollywood announcement. Maybe it's an X Mark I Electronic Clapperboard that will make a lot of 2nd ACs happy...   :P

The 5D line does of course have some connection with hollywood though so both the high end videocam and it being annouced at the same time might not be impossible.

bornshooter

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #84 on: October 26, 2011, 04:00:12 PM »
On another site, I read someone's hands on review of the 1DX and he said he overheard two Canon employees hinting at the November announcement. The writer said that it would make a lot of people happy.

It's a Hollywood announcement. Maybe it's an X Mark I Electronic Clapperboard that will make a lot of 2nd ACs happy...   :P

The 5D line does of course have some connection with hollywood though so both the high end videocam and it being annouced at the same time might not be impossible.
i agree i certainly think its a possibility the 5dmk2 is what made it for canon in the video scene sounds like the perfect venue to announce its successor i would say 75% chance we will see a 5d mk3 on november 3rd.

gene_can_sing

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #85 on: October 26, 2011, 04:01:39 PM »
On another site, I read someone's hands on review of the 1DX and he said he overheard two Canon employees hinting at the November announcement. The writer said that it would make a lot of people happy.

It's a Hollywood announcement. Maybe it's an X Mark I Electronic Clapperboard that will make a lot of 2nd ACs happy...   :P

The 5D line does of course have some connection with hollywood though so both the high end videocam and it being annouced at the same time might not be impossible.

"Some connection?" The 5D2 has a HUGE connection to Hollywood. I've worked in TV in Los Angeles for 10 years, and the 5D2 / 7D was the most important "video" camera that Canon has ever made. It's ability to do shallow focus at an affordable price has drastically altered the independent film landscape and many things on TV (more low budget projects of course) are shot on the Canons.

So I'm hoping for a Full Frame Stills/ video hybrid on Nov3rd.

Not holding my breath though.

bornshooter

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #86 on: October 26, 2011, 04:20:18 PM »
also nov 3rd the date could mean something here

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #87 on: October 26, 2011, 04:41:54 PM »
On another site, I read someone's hands on review of the 1DX and he said he overheard two Canon employees hinting at the November announcement. The writer said that it would make a lot of people happy.

It's a Hollywood announcement. Maybe it's an X Mark I Electronic Clapperboard that will make a lot of 2nd ACs happy...   :P

The 5D line does of course have some connection with hollywood though so both the high end videocam and it being annouced at the same time might not be impossible.
i agree i certainly think its a possibility the 5dmk2 is what made it for canon in the video scene sounds like the perfect venue to announce its successor i would say 75% chance we will see a 5d mk3 on november 3rd.

I'll bet you karma you won't see the successor then. I still think we'll see two dedicated video cameras. The lower end compatible with the EF lenses and 4:2:2.  And the upper end 4k(fingers crossed) with PL lenses.   Red Camera is announcing that day, so clearly Canon is trying to upstage them.

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #87 on: October 26, 2011, 04:41:54 PM »

te4o

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Re: No 5D Mark III on Novemeber 3 [CR2]
« Reply #88 on: October 26, 2011, 07:22:13 PM »

So...people waiting for a 5DIII - do you want it announced on November 3rd, if it has 26 MP, 4 fps and the exact same AF as the 5DII?  Do you want it announced in March when the 1D X comes out, if it has 30 MP, 4.2 fps, and the 9 cross-type points of the xxD line?  Or do you want to wait for a late 2012 announcement with 2013 availability, if it has 36 MP, 4.5 fps, and 15 cross-type points?

Neuro, thanks for asking! Best thing to happen is to have the first announced on Nov 3rd - most will be happy with 24-6 MP and a better IQ/lower noise/higher DR/gapless microlenses etc etc (although I don't need AF at all I can't believe they'll be using the current AF again) = 20 % better everything and probably 20% price increase...
And next year (after Nikon's try) Canon can release whatever MP count professionals want; if 36 will be the near high-end of the FF format that's not going to come in just one step from now. Gradual evolution... more money.
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Theres no way a 5DMK3 will be announced before Xmas imho
« Reply #89 on: October 28, 2011, 08:48:30 AM »
Theres no way a 5DMK2 replacement will be announced before Xmas imho

If the 1DX availability is so far in the future from actual announcement, i cant imagine the 5DMK2 replacement will be available before the 1DX.

Therefore why announce the 5DMK2 replacement before Xmas and potentially kill a hell of a lot of prosumer Xmas sales. People like to buy themselves a present as Xmas, some sort of justification, and the 5Dmk2 price point is exactly that.
The 1DX announcement didnt matter before Xmas as its not the sort of camera that sells as Xmas presents, so getting the word out there that Canon have some amazing new tech (in thier opnion) will help save face and customers.

I think Canon are struggling more than they let on imho.

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Theres no way a 5DMK3 will be announced before Xmas imho
« Reply #89 on: October 28, 2011, 08:48:30 AM »