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Author Topic: What's Next for Canon?  (Read 26429 times)

Pag

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2013, 09:07:13 PM »
Canon could take the lead in this new market, but to do so they would have to cannibalize their own products, which they won't do.

Canon has killed their product line once when they changed from FD to EOS mount. If they are certain mirrorless is the way of the future, they will have done the same for their DSLRs. But the truth is that worldwide sales of DSLRs still far outstrip that of mirrorless cameras at a ratio of about 3:1.. Even in places where sales of mirrorless cameras has picked up previously, e.g., Japan, that growth has stagnated in the past year. Just take a look at BCNRanking (Japan).

Of course SLRs are selling better than mirrorless, that's precisely my point. They are selling much worse now, which is why Canon doesn't care. But if they keep not caring until the mirrorless cameras overtake SLRs' marketshare, it will be too late: their competitors will have taken over the mirrorless market and they'll struggle to keep their leadership position.

Just look at Kodak. They failed to make the switch to digital even though they had the technology because they were too busy defending their leadership position in film. And they went from king of the hill to bankrupt.

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #15 on: October 17, 2013, 09:07:13 PM »

Ruined

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2013, 09:28:11 PM »
I personally don't believe mirrorless are the future.  I think mirrorless is a transitional technology between the current high end cameraphone (i.e. Lumia 1020) and the cameraphone of the future.

Think about it.  Even these Sony cameras, at the top of their game, make major sacrifices for the small body size compared to the best DSLR.  So, while fun for travel, wouldn't a pro opt for the best of the best to be at the top of his game?  While mirrorless will evolve, so will cameraphones... And while mirrorless cameras are small, the lenses are still huge.

Thus, as cameraphone tech evolves, you could eventually have your phone as a crop replacement that is with you 100% of the time.  Not many people are going to carry around both a phone and a camera 100% of the time.  The phone will get the shots your camera would miss.

So then, IMO, you will have DSLR or maybe a DSLR hybrid that has some of the benefits of mirrorless builtin but none of the disadvantages for your camera, and your phone for when you don't have your camera on you.

While mirrorless is small, it is still too large/inconvenient to carry everywhere all the time; and, even the best models are still not up to par with the best DSLRs.  Thus, I see the pro market keeping DSLR, the consumer market eventually going 100% phone, and enthusiasts having both.  I don't think it is a coincidence that as recently phones are coming out with larger sensor 20mp-41mp models, mirrorless has seen its growth stunted. Mirrorless I believe will remain a niche because of these two forces neither of which mirrorless is master of - it is nowhere near as portable as a high MP cameraphone, nor does it have all of what the best DSLRs offer.  Jack of all trades but master of none.

So I actually would say Canon is wise to stick to its guns with DSLR, but it needs to keep pace in releasing new DSLR tech to keep people interested and spending money on DSLR :)
« Last Edit: October 17, 2013, 09:34:01 PM by Ruined »

Woody

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2013, 09:48:50 PM »
Of course SLRs are selling better than mirrorless, that's precisely my point. They are selling much worse now

That's half the picture. While sales of DSLRs has fallen, the same thing is happening to mirrorless cameras.

From http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/and-april-makes-four.html

"The April shipment numbers are in, and the trend I've been commenting on for some time continues: mirrorless camera sales growth is still not what everyone seems to think it is. For the fourth consecutive month, mirrorless shipments from camera makers in 2013 trailed shipments in 2012...

No, this lowering of production doesn't imply the death of mirrorless cameras, it simply acknowledges what I wrote over a year ago: mirrorless cameras will not overtake DSLR sales any time in the near future. The initial high growth rate of mirrorless was a false one: the camera makers overzealously produced them when the demand wasn't really there.

I still predict that the mirrorless/DSLR world will eventually be one and the same. Once phase detect autofocus is on the imaging sensor with the same level of performance, there's little need for the cost and complexity of the mirror system in DSLRs. As Canon has shown recently, you can make much smaller DSLRs, even with the old mount depths. Long term, the difference between most mirrorless-derived cameras (m4/3, NEX, etc.) and most DSLRs (EF mount, F mount, Alpha mount) is going to really only be the depth of the camera. The smaller sensor cameras (Nikon 1, m4/3) will have an advantage of smaller lenses, at the disadvantage of lower image sensor performance."
« Last Edit: October 17, 2013, 09:50:32 PM by Woody »

Eric D

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2013, 09:58:16 PM »
I can only speak for myself in that I believe mirrorless is the future of the middle ground for those like me who want the combination of light for travel and good quality photography.  Pros and true enthusiasts with big budgets can have their full frame or multiple systems, but I don't plan to buy into more than one camera/lens ecosystem.   I nibbled with the M because of the 70D news implication and this summer's sale, but if Canon doesn't make a serious M move soon, it's got to be on to MFT for me. 

Pag

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #19 on: October 17, 2013, 10:51:57 PM »
I think mirrorless is a transitional technology between the current high end cameraphone (i.e. Lumia 1020) and the cameraphone of the future.

Unless there's a revolutionary new technology for lenses (which is unlikely but not impossible), I don't think cameraphones will take over the hobbyist market. No matter how awesome your sensor is, if you have a tiny wide-angle lens you will be severely limited in what you can photograph. Zoom lenses that have any kind of reach are too big to fit on a phone where everything must be as tiny as possible.

I can see cameraphones taking over the entry-level market. But if you're spending thousands of dollars on an oversea trip, you'll want a better camera to take nice pictures. Same if you have a newborn baby, or if you're a hobbyist who wants to do more than take snapshots.

At the same time, there are real benefits to mft cameras. They're much smaller, lighter and cheaper (especially counting the lenses) and they're already good enough for all of the use cases I mentioned. Unless you really care about maximizing image quality and are willing to spend hundreds or thousands of dollars for that (in which case you're either a pro or an advanced amateur), mirrorless cameras are good enough for you.

I see three groups of people here: those who take snapshots with little care for quality (cameraphones), those who care about quality but don't want to pay too much for it or have too big a camera (mirrorless), and those who put image quality above everything else (SLR).

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #20 on: October 17, 2013, 11:36:32 PM »
Eh.  Canon came out with the 70D.  I thought that was really cool.  How about the SL1?  Again, very cool.  Dropping the price on the EOS-M?  Price drops are good in my opinion...   ;D  Oh yeah, the t5i...  LOL!

Yes, the Sony A7(R) is pretty awesome.  But when was the last time they came out with something this great?  No, I don't put the RX1 in that league as it comes with a fixed lens.  They got halfway to 'awesome'.  Same with Fuji.  How often?

Plus, it's this hyper-communication/development cycle that we're getting used to.  We want to see something developing all the time.  After all, we saw the 1DX and 5D MKIII come out last year.  A couple of ultra-fine cameras that will suffice for AT LEAST a couple of years...  I know full-time working photography pros whose FF Canon cameras are at least 5 years old...  They aren't on forums bitching about new gear...

Me, it will be at least a year before I think about upgrading my mighty-fine 5D Mark II.  If Canon's big MP camera doesn't wow me enough, I'll be going medium format.  And that's a testament to how good Canon FF cameras are...
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Blackwood

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2013, 11:49:41 PM »
Hello all,

I have been a Canon man since 1976 when I purchased my first Canon F-1 with a 50mm 1.2 Aspherical Lens - still have them today. Canon have always been at the fore front of innovation with great camera developments over the decades.
I've owned AE-1s T90s, EOS 1Vs and all the EOS 1Ds models - all superb designs for their times.
I have followed this site for some time now and sadly Canon have fallen way behind. Okay, the 5d series and the 1Dx are superb cameras but unfortunately since then we have only seen a lot of consumer dribble emerge from Canon.
Canon have given us no WOW factor and companies like Fuji, Sony, Olympus and Panasonic and others seem to be leading the way.
The announcement of the new Sony Alpha A7 and A7r cameras amazed me but at the same time angered me.

There may be people out there who do not entirely agree with me but a lot will agree Canon are very lack lustre at the minute.

Come On Canon, Give us some new WOW factor

Regards

Blkackwood


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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #21 on: October 17, 2013, 11:49:41 PM »

M.ST

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2013, 01:22:39 AM »
I use Canon cameras since 35 years and I am very happy with Canon gear.

But what the hell is Canon doing in the last years?

Only the 1D X from the actual lineup is worth buying it. But I want to see the real replacement for the 1Ds Mark III, the 7D Mark III with CF card slot, a 12-24 2.8 L or 14-24 2.8 L lens, the 24-70 2.8 IS, a 100-400 IS, a lighter 70-200 2.8 II replacement with better IQ on the market.

There are a lot of new products out for testing, but nothing hit the market.

Wake up Canon or you loose.

Kwanon

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2013, 02:01:34 AM »
Canon can take the lead easily when they release the real 1Ds III replacement.

That camera together with the 1D X eats the competition in pro bodies.

Woody

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #24 on: October 18, 2013, 02:08:34 AM »
There are a lot of new products out for testing, but nothing hit the market.

I am curious too.

My guess is that the poor camera market conditions (ALL camera sales numbers are down) and rapidly changing camera landscape (invasion of camera phones + mirrorless offerings) probably caught Canon unawares.

Nikon is in a similar situation (except their sensors from Sony are much better).

We should expect some good stuff from both companies next year. This is certainly true for Nikon which is 80% dependent on sales of photography gear. If Nikon does not adapt quickly, they will be wiped off the landscape.

Armed with the new sensor PDAF technology, Canon is ready to plunge into the world of mirrorless cameras. But I think further refinement is needed... sensor PDAF needs to be 100% as good as current DSLR PDAF.

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #25 on: October 18, 2013, 02:10:24 AM »
Maybe I'm weird (Ok, I KNOW I'm weird, but that's beside the point), but I just don't have any serious desire for a mirrorless camera.  They're ok for what they are, and I don't begrudge anyone that does want one, I just personally don't find the trade off worth it.  If the M2 or whatever it's eventually called has all the 70D goodies like everyone hopes, and falls to the sub-$400 level, I'll probably pick one up for times I REALLY don't want to drag a DSLR along, and as an emergency back-up-to-my-back-up body.  And that's due to mirrorlesses current, singular, advantage... size.  Unless it's for a use case where size is the absolute top priority, I don't see the draw.  But hey, to each his own.

What would it take to change my mind?

Full Frame:  Currently slim pickings, and very expensive
Good AF:  The best mirrorless AF is almost up to yesteryears Rebel, but maybe some day
EVF:  No lag, no visible pixels, and galmut as good as the best human eyes (and doesn't need to be calibrated).  That one will be a while.
And last but not least...
Antigravity:  Because that's the only way you'll be able to handhold all day with a mirrorless, lenses which are quite hand-holdable with a gripped or pro body.  Even something relatively dainty like a 100-400 would be unbalanced and awkward on a mirrorless.  Unless you think it would be humorous to see people with a 70-200/2.8IS II on a gimbal head shooting a wedding... actually, that probably would be humorous for most of us :P

Kwanon

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #26 on: October 18, 2013, 02:10:58 AM »
For me personally things are going better than i could ever hope for from Canon and all camera makers.

The 1D X is a true wonder and the perfect camera for me now.
We know that canon will release a true 1Ds III high MP 1D body when the time is right.. We know it will be good. Just look at what time did for the 1D X.. We were waiting for that for a long time and when it actually came out it was perfect.

Canon needs to update some of their primes like the 50mm 1.2 and the TS-E45mm but in the meantime i will enjoy the new Zeiss 55mm 1.4 Otus and the other Otus primes that will come out. When the Otus line is out it is the perfect time for the 1Ds III replacement co's we can really get a good use of the resolution with that and the Otus lenses.

Also i like what Leica is doing right now.

The worst thing that can happen is that the focus would come away from the Pro cameras to consumer cameras and we would lose all real progress that benefits all shooters down the line. So i'm glad there are Leicas and Otus lenses and that Canon is waiting and releasing their first megapixel monster in the form of the 1Ds Replacement.

I'm perfectly happy with the situation.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2013, 02:18:45 AM by Kwanon »

Lawliet

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2013, 02:40:56 AM »
And that's due to mirrorlesses current, singular, advantage... size. 

They have another one, AF accuracy (and precision). With all the buzz about relative sensor performances people seem to forget that the sensor records only what gets projected onto it. DPreview had an article a few days ago comparing the 70D's different PDAF subsystems - anything approaching MF should better not rely on the old style AF(, although that lessen could be learned from the D800 as well).

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #27 on: October 18, 2013, 02:40:56 AM »

baldaran

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #28 on: October 18, 2013, 03:37:12 AM »
I think Canon was sleeping for a while now. Canon should get off the ground, otherwise they will possibly end up like nokia, because they miss important new market segments. From Canons side, there was nothing really exciting for the consumer market for a while now :(

Sigma is getting a major competitor in the lens segment with a brand new and amazing product line. Some of the announcements such as the 18-35 f1.8 where amazing and most of Sigmas new products are really innovative and of high quality. I think there will come a lot more from sigma in the next year. Unfortunatelly, nothing comparable from canons side. Canon is only updating old lens designs and is selling the new ones really expensive.

Same for the bodies. Sure, canon is leading in DSLR bodies. However, from my point of view, mirrorless is getting more and more competitive and attractive for consumers, because they are not as heavy and bulky as DSLR and the image quality is fine now. Therefore, i think in the next years the DSLR sales will be cannibalized by mirrorless. Canon was the last manufactor that got into the mirrorless segment. Other companies have started years before and solidified and expanded there leading market position in this segment. The lens lineup for EOS-M is still poor. And recently, Sony announced a potential game changer with their full format mirrorless. From my point of view, Canon should hurry to get their foot in the door. If they wait one or two more years, the door will potentially be closed.

Even in the compact segment are other companies more innovative. Just have a look to Sonys lineup. Canon has nothing comparable.

I'm not happy with canons product and pricing strategy for a while now. I hope something will change in the near future.

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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2013, 03:44:59 AM »
I posted this on another thread, but it is more relevant here.

I don’t believe Canon will lose their sleep over me and if I, as an individual, stay or go. In fact, as individuals none of us scare Canon very much. But if you read more of the posts on this and other threads, you see a growing discontent amongst the CR members, for losing ground to the competition in the areas that are important to us. In general we are happy with the lenses, but we are not happy with the bodies.

I’m not sure we are big enough even as a group, to make much of a difference, but we have impact way beyond the equipment we buy ourselves. Canon should worry about the fact that I, and lots of other CR members, advice lots of people every year, on what to buy.  And I would guess that somewhere around 20-30 of those asking me for advice actually buy cameras, lenses and accessories. If I stop recommending Canon and recommend Sony, Nikon or something else instead and a large number of members on this forum are doing the same, it will have an impact they should take very seriously.

So, Canon, I really hope you are paying attention. The road to becoming the Nokia of the photography world is not that long ...
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Re: What's Next for Canon?
« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2013, 03:44:59 AM »