A Loose Roadmap [CR1]

[keithfullermusic]

Don't get me wrong - I agree that they will lose customers the longer they wait.  That is a given, and Canon has to know this.  But the small amount of customers that they lose will be more than offset by milking the current 5D for much longer.

Also, what camera that Sony makes will compete with the current 5D?  There might be one, but not to my knowledge.  The current 5D is still an amazing camera and the only reason people want the iii is because people love new stuff, there really isn't a reason why they have to update it.  It's IQ is incredible.  When I am casually browsing Flickr I almost always recognize a picture taken with a 5D instantly, and that's because it looks incredible.

I also think that when people are ready to purchase a camera like a 5D they have used other cameras for a long time. Most of those people are likely Canon users already with a pretty solid lens collection.  I highly doubt that those people are willing to switch to a complete different brand and give up all their knowledge of Canons and their collection of lenses.  There will undoubtedly be some, but not that many.

Why would you release it ASAP?

Simply: Sony, Nikon & Co aren't just sitting around... Canon is far behind the current development. And many people are waiting. And people like me are considering switching to Sony Alpha 77. Despite the kit lense I have two lenses that I could sell without a cent loss. And I know some people in a similar position. I have a working 350D and I CAN wait. But I wait an eternity.

Canon is not going to release a new one until sales of the current one begin to slip below acceptable levels.

And exactly THAT strategy is a big mistake. If the sales levels are falling it is to late.

[gmrza]

However, If Digic V only performs marginally better and w/o the 5D II's  kinks worked out, there will be much pissing and moaning for the next ~3-4 years. Not something Canon wants associated with the V.

Maybe this is what Canon is trying to avoid. The 5D series is in the spotlight with the 1D series, imo. Or even more so.

I think you have put your finger on a critical point.  In terms of profitability, the 5D series is more important than the 1Ds.  The 1Ds is a very niche product, even more so than the 1D series.

Canon cannot afford to get the 5DmkIII wrong - that would see a loss of market share to Nikon and Sony.

[Woody]

I'm starting to wonder what the true impact of that earthquake was on Canon/Nikon ...

All Canon DSLRs are currently made in Japan. High end Nikon DSLRs used to be made only in Japan; the rest came from Thailand. All Sony stuff are NOT made in Japan.

I believe Nikon is moving some of their manufacturing facilities to Malaysia. Their V1/J1 are made in Malaysia. Not sure if all future Nikon DSLRs will be made outside Japan.

Canon is building some plants in Taiwan and they'll only be ready in 2012.

This is probably the main reason for delays in Nikon & Canon schedules.

[Dave]

Don't get me wrong - I agree that they will lose customers the longer they wait.  That is a given, and Canon has to know this.  But the small amount of customers that they lose will be more than offset by milking the current 5D for much longer.

You're right... I said what >I< would do. Imo Canon is far behind the current SLR development. Especially since we don't know what Nikon will come up with the next couple of months.

there really isn't a reason why they have to update it

One word: Video!!!

The Alpha 77 is incredible concerning video (1080p 60p). And Canon could outpoint that, with a new full frame cam with some nice video features.
And in my opinion the technology is THERE!! Take the current 7D give it a new FF sensor and new CPU, add the video features from the 600D (and may be a 60p HD mode), a GPS chip and put a 5D Mk III Label on it!
Eventually most of the people would be happy!

I think the most exciting thing will be the features of the 5D3 compared to the 7D2 (if it is true that they both will come at the photokina. The current 7D actually much better than the 5D2. So what will it look like in 12 months from now on? Will the 7D2 still be that much better?

I'm really curious and I'm already waiting to get tickets for the photokina 2012 ;-)

regards, Dave

[Woody]

While it might be unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months, these are unusual times.

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

So, it's NOT unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months. Not in the least.

My bet: some mirrorless thing, 5D and 1D/1Ds merged

[moreorless]

Don't get me wrong - I agree that they will lose customers the longer they wait.  That is a given, and Canon has to know this.  But the small amount of customers that they lose will be more than offset by milking the current 5D for much longer.

It might not just be a question of milking profits, selling the 5D mk2 for £1500 and potentially even less in the future allows Canon to exploit the lower end of the FF market. Unless a new entry level FF body appears they'll likely lose the ability to sell for that market when the Mk3 launches at a much higher price. An extended period with a new 1Ds and no mk3 might have the opposite effect on the higher end of the market and lead to more users shifting up.

My feeling is that the 7D would actually be hurt more by the D400 or something similar being in direct competision since there would likely be less of a price gap than between the 5D mk2 and the D800.

[rowanlamb]

While it might be unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months, these are unusual times.

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

So, it's NOT unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months. Not in the least.

And if you ignore calendar years, they've actually announced 4 DSLRs in a 12 month period - the 1000D, 50D, 5D2 and 500D were within 12 months of each other.

[Haydn1971]

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

The 450D also came out in 2008...  2 high end "pro" bodies in one calendar year does appear to date, somewhat unusual, so 3 would be quite something, but having said that, there are 4 "pro" lines now and it was 2009 since Canon last dropped a new pro body onto the market.

[gmrza]

While it might be unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months, these are unusual times.

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

So, it's NOT unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months. Not in the least.

My bet: some mirrorless thing, 5D and 1D/1Ds merged

There of course the quote from Masaya Maeda, head of Canon's camera division stating: "We will launch an interesting product next year" in the following article:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/05/us-canon-idUSTRE7640QX20110705?feedType=RSS&feedName=technologyNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtechnologyNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Technology%29

Whether or not a mirrorless camera is being referred to is another question.

I wonder also whether or not we can read anything into the fact that there was no Powershot G13 launched together with the S100.

[Edwin Herdman]

just remember... every updated lens has come out more expensive than its predecessor, so add a $100 or more

$100 as the baseline to get a foot in the door?  I wish I were as optimistic as you on that front.

Canon has released and refreshed a bunch of telephoto lenses lately; all that's left logically is the shorter end.  The recent releases of a few great wide angles seem to indicate they've shaken off any reputation of being bad at short focal length lenses, but more good wide lenses that are also affordable would help the perception (not to mention help photographers).

Wide is more specific than "Canon is going to release new lenses shorter than the super telephotos," but you can nearly get there by a process of elimination...this might just be another joker wasting our time by emailing CR.  I personally would be interested in medium telephoto lens refreshes the most (50mm, some slightly longer stuff) but the wide is also interesting too (I would like some autofocus wide lens; the 17mm TS-E isn't usable indoors in dim lighting for things that move).

[Meh]

While it might be unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months, these are unusual times.

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

So, it's NOT unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months. Not in the least.

And if you ignore calendar years, they've actually announced 4 DSLRs in a 12 month period - the 1000D, 50D, 5D2 and 500D were within 12 months of each other.

My comment was referring to the original post that said it was unusual and to be fair to that post, I took it to mean 'enthusiast and above' bodies.  So say, 7D and above.  Below that, the bodies are on a fairly fixed annual update schedule I think.  But perhaps I misunderstood what was meant by that.

To further explain my point "these are unusual times" my thinking is that 60D and above are all due or overdue to be updated now or within 12 months which may not have occurred in the past, anyone know for sure?  So based on coincidence of timing and combined with pressure from Sony at the enthusiast level, Canon (and possibly Nikon also) will want to refresh everything.  Maybe I just want that to be true so looking for reasons to believe it

I don't believe they have any mandate to stick to a certain cycle.  They will decide based on availability of new sensor technology (which is here now as we've seen with the latest Sony sensors), DigicV now in manufacturing, and market forces.

My prediction is that all 60D and above will be updated within 12 months along with something new such as another model in between or maybe medium format at the top end.  Something is coming, I can feel it

[gene_can_sing]

Canon is out to just milk it to death. It's kind of disgusting actually, especially when video people have been waiting for hell to freeze over for a camera to fix basic issues.

I remember several months ago, I mentioned a number of times that if people keep buying 5D2s, the 5D3 will never come out. Many people kept telling me that 5D2 sales has nothing to do with future product releases, and that they will release it when the tech is ready.

NAIVE! Really Naive.

So yes, the moral of the story is if you want the 5D3 to come out, DON'T buy a 5D2. That's the only way you can get Canon to do anything. By not buying their products, and to be honest, they really don't deserve your money.

[dilbert]

I wonder also whether or not we can read anything into the fact that there was no Powershot G13 launched together with the S100.

You mean will the G series be replaced by mirrorless?

Interesting thought ... would those that buy the G series go for that?

Or is the G series waiting for other new technology that isn't yet complete or allowed by cost?

[dilbert]

Anyone that thinks the 5D Mark2's video is amazing needs to watch these:

http://vimeo.com/album/1623440

However the DSLRs fit into a completely different price range than any of the others.

[Ghostdive]

Canon is out to just milk it to death. It's kind of disgusting actually, especially when video people have been waiting for hell to freeze over for a camera to fix basic issues.

I remember several months ago, I mentioned a number of times that if people keep buying 5D2s, the 5D3 will never come out. Many people kept telling me that 5D2 sales has nothing to do with future product releases, and that they will release it when the tech is ready.

NAIVE! Really Naive.

So yes, the moral of the story is if you want the 5D3 to come out, DON'T buy a 5D2. That's the only way you can get Canon to do anything. By not buying their products, and to be honest, they really don't deserve your money.

What sould i buy then? A sony? I need latest at end of february an new camera to replace my 400D for better lowlight(noise and AF) handling. Can do two things, buy an 5D2 or an 1DIV. At the moment i tend toward to the 5D2 for the FF-Sensor. So nothing buy is not an option.