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Author Topic: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]  (Read 21149 times)

Woody

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2011, 11:26:24 PM »
I'm starting to wonder what the true impact of that earthquake was on Canon/Nikon ...

All Canon DSLRs are currently made in Japan. High end Nikon DSLRs used to be made only in Japan; the rest came from Thailand. All Sony stuff are NOT made in Japan.

I believe Nikon is moving some of their manufacturing facilities to Malaysia. Their V1/J1 are made in Malaysia. Not sure if all future Nikon DSLRs will be made outside Japan.

Canon is building some plants in Taiwan and they'll only be ready in 2012.

This is probably the main reason for delays in Nikon & Canon schedules.

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #30 on: October 01, 2011, 11:26:24 PM »

Dave

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #31 on: October 02, 2011, 12:07:29 AM »
Quote
Don't get me wrong - I agree that they will lose customers the longer they wait.  That is a given, and Canon has to know this.  But the small amount of customers that they lose will be more than offset by milking the current 5D for much longer.

You're right... I said what >I< would do. Imo Canon is far behind the current SLR development. Especially since we don't know what Nikon will come up with the next couple of months.

Quote
there really isn't a reason why they have to update it
One word: Video!!!

The Alpha 77 is incredible concerning video (1080p 60p). And Canon could outpoint that, with a new full frame cam with some nice video features.
And in my opinion the technology is THERE!! Take the current 7D give it a new FF sensor and new CPU, add the video features from the 600D (and may be a 60p HD mode), a GPS chip and put a 5D Mk III Label on it!
Eventually most of the people would be happy!

I think the most exciting thing will be the features of the 5D3 compared to the 7D2 (if it is true that they both will come at the photokina. The current 7D actually much better than the 5D2. So what will it look like in 12 months from now on? Will the 7D2 still be that much better?

I'm really curious and I'm already waiting to get tickets for the photokina 2012 ;-)

regards, Dave

Woody

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #32 on: October 02, 2011, 01:50:13 AM »
While it might be unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months, these are unusual times.

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

So, it's NOT unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months. Not in the least. :)

My bet: some mirrorless thing, 5D and 1D/1Ds merged

moreorless

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #33 on: October 02, 2011, 02:41:26 AM »
Don't get me wrong - I agree that they will lose customers the longer they wait.  That is a given, and Canon has to know this.  But the small amount of customers that they lose will be more than offset by milking the current 5D for much longer.

It might not just be a question of milking profits, selling the 5D mk2 for £1500 and potentially even less in the future allows Canon to exploit the lower end of the FF market. Unless a new entry level FF body appears they'll likely lose the ability to sell for that market when the Mk3 launches at a much higher price. An extended period with a new 1Ds and no mk3 might have the opposite effect on the higher end of the market and lead to more users shifting up.

My feeling is that the 7D would actually be hurt more by the D400 or something similar being in direct competision since there would likely be less of a price gap than between the 5D mk2 and the D800.

rowanlamb

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #34 on: October 02, 2011, 02:44:22 AM »
While it might be unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months, these are unusual times.

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

So, it's NOT unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months. Not in the least. :)


And if you ignore calendar years, they've actually announced 4 DSLRs in a 12 month period - the 1000D, 50D, 5D2 and 500D were within 12 months of each other.

Haydn1971

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #35 on: October 02, 2011, 05:09:46 AM »
2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

The 450D also came out in 2008...  2 high end "pro" bodies in one calendar year does appear to date, somewhat unusual, so 3 would be quite something, but having said that, there are 4 "pro" lines now and it was 2009 since Canon last dropped a new pro body onto the market.
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gmrza

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #36 on: October 02, 2011, 06:11:09 AM »
While it might be unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months, these are unusual times.

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

So, it's NOT unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months. Not in the least. :)

My bet: some mirrorless thing, 5D and 1D/1Ds merged

There of course the quote from Masaya Maeda, head of Canon's camera division stating: "We will launch an interesting product next year" in the following article:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/05/us-canon-idUSTRE7640QX20110705?feedType=RSS&feedName=technologyNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+reuters%2FtechnologyNews+%28News+%2F+US+%2F+Technology%29

Whether or not a mirrorless camera is being referred to is another question.

I wonder also whether or not we can read anything into the fact that there was no Powershot G13 launched together with the S100.

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #36 on: October 02, 2011, 06:11:09 AM »

Edwin Herdman

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #37 on: October 02, 2011, 03:15:31 PM »
just remember... every updated lens has come out more expensive than its predecessor, so add a $100 or more
$100 as the baseline to get a foot in the door?  I wish I were as optimistic as you on that front.

Canon has released and refreshed a bunch of telephoto lenses lately; all that's left logically is the shorter end.  The recent releases of a few great wide angles seem to indicate they've shaken off any reputation of being bad at short focal length lenses, but more good wide lenses that are also affordable would help the perception (not to mention help photographers).

Wide is more specific than "Canon is going to release new lenses shorter than the super telephotos," but you can nearly get there by a process of elimination...this might just be another joker wasting our time by emailing CR.  I personally would be interested in medium telephoto lens refreshes the most (50mm, some slightly longer stuff) but the wide is also interesting too (I would like some autofocus wide lens; the 17mm TS-E isn't usable indoors in dim lighting for things that move).
« Last Edit: October 02, 2011, 03:18:14 PM by Edwin Herdman »

Meh

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #38 on: October 02, 2011, 04:05:08 PM »
While it might be unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months, these are unusual times.

2008: 1000D, 50D, 5D2
2009: 500D, 7D, 1D4

So, it's NOT unusual for Canon to release 3 bodies in 12 months. Not in the least. :)


And if you ignore calendar years, they've actually announced 4 DSLRs in a 12 month period - the 1000D, 50D, 5D2 and 500D were within 12 months of each other.

My comment was referring to the original post that said it was unusual and to be fair to that post, I took it to mean 'enthusiast and above' bodies.  So say, 7D and above.  Below that, the bodies are on a fairly fixed annual update schedule I think.  But perhaps I misunderstood what was meant by that.

To further explain my point "these are unusual times" my thinking is that 60D and above are all due or overdue to be updated now or within 12 months which may not have occurred in the past, anyone know for sure?  So based on coincidence of timing and combined with pressure from Sony at the enthusiast level, Canon (and possibly Nikon also) will want to refresh everything.  Maybe I just want that to be true so looking for reasons to believe it :)

I don't believe they have any mandate to stick to a certain cycle.  They will decide based on availability of new sensor technology (which is here now as we've seen with the latest Sony sensors), DigicV now in manufacturing, and market forces.

My prediction is that all 60D and above will be updated within 12 months along with something new such as another model in between or maybe medium format at the top end.  Something is coming, I can feel it :)


gene_can_sing

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #39 on: October 02, 2011, 04:11:33 PM »
Canon is out to just milk it to death. It's kind of disgusting actually, especially when video people have been waiting for hell to freeze over for a camera to fix basic issues.

I remember several months ago, I mentioned a number of times that if people keep buying 5D2s, the 5D3 will never come out. Many people kept telling me that 5D2 sales has nothing to do with future product releases, and that they will release it when the tech is ready.

NAIVE! Really Naive.

So yes, the moral of the story is if you want the 5D3 to come out, DON'T buy a 5D2. That's the only way you can get Canon to do anything. By not buying their products, and to be honest, they really don't deserve your money.

Ghostdive

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #40 on: October 02, 2011, 05:39:50 PM »
Canon is out to just milk it to death. It's kind of disgusting actually, especially when video people have been waiting for hell to freeze over for a camera to fix basic issues.

I remember several months ago, I mentioned a number of times that if people keep buying 5D2s, the 5D3 will never come out. Many people kept telling me that 5D2 sales has nothing to do with future product releases, and that they will release it when the tech is ready.

NAIVE! Really Naive.

So yes, the moral of the story is if you want the 5D3 to come out, DON'T buy a 5D2. That's the only way you can get Canon to do anything. By not buying their products, and to be honest, they really don't deserve your money.

What sould i buy then? A sony? I need latest at end of february an new camera to replace my 400D for better lowlight(noise and AF) handling. Can do two things, buy an 5D2 or an 1DIV. At the moment i tend toward to the 5D2 for the FF-Sensor. So nothing buy is not an option.

gmrza

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #41 on: October 02, 2011, 06:02:03 PM »

You mean will the G series be replaced by mirrorless?

Interesting thought ... would those that buy the G series go for that?

Or is the G series waiting for other new technology that isn't yet complete or allowed by cost?

That is what I am wondering.  The problem is that mirrorless spans a multitude of EVILs (excuse the pun).  Depending on price, size, features and lenses, it could span anywhere from where the G series sits to where the Leica M9 sits.  That may give a hint as to why runaway success is eluding the mirrorless segment at the moment.

I guess my biggest quibbles with my G11 are the sensor size (and associated DoF and noise issues), the shutter lag and f/2.8 not being bright enough at the short end.  In reality I don't need an interchangeable lens system for my pocketable camera.  If I want anything longer than about 150mm (35mm normalised) I may as well use a DSLR.  That requirement set shows absolutely no need to a compact system camera!


That said, I think that in the longer term, the days of reflex mirrors are numbered.  Within 5 years it would not surprise me if most "single lens cameras" have done away with the reflex mirror.  The biggest stumbling block may still be a decent EVF.
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moreorless

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #42 on: October 03, 2011, 05:22:45 AM »
That is what I am wondering.  The problem is that mirrorless spans a multitude of EVILs (excuse the pun).  Depending on price, size, features and lenses, it could span anywhere from where the G series sits to where the Leica M9 sits.  That may give a hint as to why runaway success is eluding the mirrorless segment at the moment.

I guess my biggest quibbles with my G11 are the sensor size (and associated DoF and noise issues), the shutter lag and f/2.8 not being bright enough at the short end.  In reality I don't need an interchangeable lens system for my pocketable camera.  If I want anything longer than about 150mm (35mm normalised) I may as well use a DSLR.  That requirement set shows absolutely no need to a compact system camera!

That said, I think that in the longer term, the days of reflex mirrors are numbered.  Within 5 years it would not surprise me if most "single lens cameras" have done away with the reflex mirror.  The biggest stumbling block may still be a decent EVF.

Thats always been my feeling, espeically now the Nikon's smaller mirrorless doesnt seem to save much space.

I wouldnt be supprized if the delay to the G13 is a response to the X10, manifactures should really have been pushing up sensor size for manual high end compacts well before now so hopefully that camera kicks off a shift in that direction? The X10's lens size doesnt seem to have become that large even with the large appature thoughout the range so I can see potential for Canon to push things even further with sensor size.

If Canon creates an interchangeble lens mirrorless then I think there better off aiming above not below m43.  To me the most obvious gap in the market right now seems to be between the X100 and NEX, crop size sensor, a couple of bodies(one larger prenium with a hybrid OVF/EVF and one budget without) and a range of small primes that balance well with those bodies.

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #42 on: October 03, 2011, 05:22:45 AM »

Rocky

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #43 on: October 04, 2011, 10:20:14 PM »
That said, I think that in the longer term, the days of reflex mirrors are numbered.  Within 5 years it would not surprise me if most "single lens cameras" have done away with the reflex mirror.  The biggest stumbling block may still be a decent EVF.
The biggest stumbling bock should be a good fast AF. We may say that The New Nikon mirrorless has both contrast detector and phrase detector built into the sensor(??). But Nikon may be holding the patent right on it. So it will be off limit to other manufacturer.   If we are using mirrorless, we can just use the LCD screen at teh back of the camera as view finder. All point and shoot user are doing it. we do not need EVF and use the mirrorless like a DSLR.
On the other hand, Canon can build a copy of the M9 with Leica M mount and made a new line of lenses. Canon is fully capable of doing it. Canon has been making Leica copies for decaded until the 60's. The patent right of M mount has expired afew years back.

moreorless

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #44 on: October 05, 2011, 03:06:36 AM »
That said, I think that in the longer term, the days of reflex mirrors are numbered.  Within 5 years it would not surprise me if most "single lens cameras" have done away with the reflex mirror.  The biggest stumbling block may still be a decent EVF.
The biggest stumbling bock should be a good fast AF. We may say that The New Nikon mirrorless has both contrast detector and phrase detector built into the sensor(??). But Nikon may be holding the patent right on it. So it will be off limit to other manufacturer.   If we are using mirrorless, we can just use the LCD screen at teh back of the camera as view finder. All point and shoot user are doing it. we do not need EVF and use the mirrorless like a DSLR.
On the other hand, Canon can build a copy of the M9 with Leica M mount and made a new line of lenses. Canon is fully capable of doing it. Canon has been making Leica copies for decaded until the 60's. The patent right of M mount has expired afew years back.

The biggest drawback will IMHO be using an EVF, the current generation are still IMHO pretty poor looking and I have my doubts they'll ever look great given the size limations.

The NEX seems to show that mirrorless ultimately does not have THAT big an impact on lens size and most serious photogra0hers are not going to want a grossly unbalanced body,. If the body is held back my having to balance the lens(and include the current amount of manual controls) and the lens arent that much smaller then is a much smaller reduction in size worth giving up the OVF for?

My feeling is that we'll probabley see the high end market spilt between DSLR's with the current wide range of zooms and large sensor ultra compact mirrorless that use mostly primes.

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Re: A Loose Roadmap [CR1]
« Reply #44 on: October 05, 2011, 03:06:36 AM »