People that are satisfied taking pictures with there phones most likely never where in the DSLR market to begin with.
Thats just the social pic snappers people that like good quality pics will always want a DSLR but hey its recession/crisis. My free spendable income keeps going down as insurancen, Food and everything keeps going up in price and my income isnt going up.
so i simply do not have money for thoustant dollar bodys and multi thousant dollar lenses.
The last generation canon lensen have had some seriously absurd price gains which most normal non professionals simply can no longer afford.
I agree here, it's not the smartphones eating into the dSLR market, the smartphones kill the P&S cameras.
I think several things come together for dSLRs:
1) the dSLR market is quite mature now. In a decade, a remarkable improvement happened in sensor technology, so there was incentive to switch from film to digital, there was incentive to upgrade to a new model dSLR. So, there was a big "bubble" so to speak of pent up demand that could be satisfied. Many people that would buy a dSLR have one by now probably. Now, I think the market will return more to a level situation where you go through normal replacement cycles. People will think twice before they buy a new body, "does it really give much more than what I already have?" That's why Canon and everybody is also pushing the video area, to keep adding new features and thereby a market sector not yet saturated. Even that is not enough anymore, as camera makers are looking into medium format, and security camera businesses.
Pushing more megapixels (D800) down the throat of people is probably not giving the huge sales increases hoped for - many people realize that files get huge and the improvement in quality is minimal if one doesn't invest time and effort to get the maximum out of the sensor. And most images are viewed on screens that don't have such a high resolution. Likewise, the dynamic range wars (whether 12 or 14 stops) are incremental gains that will not cause a huge boost to the market.
Of course, there will always be pros, and tech users that go for the top - as with computers, where gamers build their own customized ultimate gaming machines, but this is a limited market.
2) As pointed out, weak economy, people need to save.
3) Maybe less newcomers to the market. There tend to be fads of what's a hot hobby, maybe the hype for pictures is somewhat dying down, people being oversaturated with images flooding the web.
So, the only way to get a lot of people to buy new cameras is with a substantial innovation in sensor technology.