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Author Topic: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones  (Read 52079 times)

neuroanatomist

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #90 on: October 27, 2013, 07:00:24 PM »
Given that the entire article points to consumers using $600 iPhones in place of $600 entry-level dSLRs, I think it's an incredibly valid point.   

Well, that was the point of the first paragraph, anyway. 

That's all fine and dandy, but the 5D3 still can't hold a candle to the dynamic range of the D800.  Sure, when you throw in DUAL-ISO hacks you can get there, but out of the box shadow performance is far from equal.

Oh, ok.  Has that helped the D800 outsell the 5DIII?  No.  While it's true there is a small group of vocal forum posters DRone incessantly about DR, having more DR hasn't helped Nikon outsell Canon in any dSLR market segment.  Clearly, you're in the minority.  Or maybe not...I believe you said you're a Canon user, if so, why haven't you switched to Nikon for the better DR?

That's fine, I just don't think ignoring those who are not 100% satisfied by Canon is a logical approach.  And telling them to go to another forum seems downright condescending and rude.  I think the best use of forums is to discuss opposing viewpoints, not banish them. 

Condescending and rude to call someone on blatant misrepresentation of facts, repeatedly and in several threads?  I'm not going to apologize for that. Maybe I should apologize to DPR forums, though...

It would behoove you to understand the mentality of the dissatisfied user base.  For there are many of us who still continue to use Canon loyally, on a daily basis as part of our business.  We just find their approach to their product line "evolution" to be somewhat, how shall I say this, disingenuous with respect to the advanced shooter.

Constructive criticism is fine.  Unfortunately, much of the microcosm of the Canon user base represented on this forum is under the mistaken impression that Canon must respond to their individual, disparate needs.  Canon's goal is to sell cameras and lenses.  The fact that they are selling more cameras than their competition, and even still able to sell to apparently disaffected people such as yourself, suggests that they're doing a pretty good job at achieving their goal.
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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #90 on: October 27, 2013, 07:00:24 PM »

neuroanatomist

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #91 on: October 27, 2013, 07:11:12 PM »
barely outresolves? Strong words.
http://www.dxomark.com/Lenses/Camera-Lens-Ratings

Thanks for sharing that useful information.  Useful, that is, to anyone who shoots only in lighting like that found in a dimly lit warehouse.  Maybe you didn't realize that their Scores have little to do with overall optical performance, but rather are based on performance at 150 lux?  Or that my statement was based, in part, on data and an article from DxOMark (but not the Biased Scores - abbreviated BS - which you highlighted).  It's unfortunate that so few people bother to actually read and comprehend what a 'Score' actually means (at least to the extent possible, since some aspects are often undisclosed by the testing organization).

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Ruined

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #92 on: October 27, 2013, 07:14:30 PM »
it´s just that i think low end DSLR will get less attractive.

If people don't buy a DSLR, they generally will use their phone... And there isn't much that Canon can do about that, because an extra device is always going to be less convenient than 2 devices.  No matter how small your camera is, a cameraphone + camera + lens is always going to be more bulky than a cameraphone alone.

As for mirrorless, companies are now disguising them in DSLR bodies because they sell better that way!
http://www.samsung.com/global/microsite/galaxycamera/nx/

My thought?

Consumers will continue to shift to cameraphones as they get better, if they want something more serious they will buy DSLR because that is what they know.

Pros will continue to buy no-compromise DSLRs simply because they are the best overall, no sacrifices made for small size.  Not to mention a tiny body can be a big disadvantage with a big full frame lens due to lack of control.

Mirrorless may end up disguised as DSLR like we see with the Galaxy NX or take some other hybrid form factor.  But that is about as much as we can hope IMO... They simply aren't catching on in general - people are ambivalent to them.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 07:18:42 PM by Ruined »

sdsr

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #93 on: October 27, 2013, 07:31:49 PM »

I agree with you on many of your points, Lichtgestalt, but the problem is one of Canon (and the entire dSLR industry's) own making.  Cranking out an "updated" camera every three years at an exorbitant price-premium with minimal, if any, feature changes, is not a way to run a business or get brand loyalty.  Yes, it's worked for Apple, but they are the lone wolf in this regard and can run their business that way due to their rabid fanbase.  dSLR users by nature, are a much more finicky bunch that won't be duped by minor spec improvements.  The "check out our new dual-pixel AF!!  Now give us 1,200 of your hard earned dollars!!" marketing approach just doesn't work on the majority of us.  We're simply not that impressed by the cost per feature.  And as you stated, many of us already have dSLRs and the image quality is fine, so getting us to shell out $3,200 for the next FF consumer model is a tough sell.  Heck, the 8 year old 10MP 40D is still more than plenty for the average enthusiast, and one of the first bodies I recommend to new dSLR shooters.

That said, I still think massive innovations can be made.  I, for one, am still clamoring for a sensor that mimic's the dynamic range of film.  I don't need 40+ MP, but having better shadow performance would be something I would gladly pay for.  (and something I am still envious of regarding the D800)

But this is all nit-picking silliness that only demonstrates the point I think we all agree on... the dSLR manufacturers are on an unsustainable trajectory.  Without major shifts, and I'm not sure what those shifts should be, they will only hasten their own loss of market share.

A few posts back you were complaining that Canon etc. weren't listening to consumers, but here you're telling us that "many of us" are satisfied with the cameras we have and that you recommend an old model to novices.  What does *that* tell Canon etc.?

(And if better shadow performance is something you would "gladly pay for",  and since you're envious of the D800 (and presumably D600/610, whose DR is about the same), why don't you gladly jump over to Nikon?  It's not difficult to switch, and except for camera bodies bought new there's little loss involved.)

For all we know, Canon *does* listen to customers - it could be that, notwithstanding the complaining here, most customers just don't care about DR (if they really did care, wouldn't they have jumped to Nikon by now?) and, to the extent they want to buy dslrs, are quite happy with what Canon provides (its sales may be down, but its market share isn't, is it?).  What are the demands of camera customers that you and that other chap think the companies are ignoring?  Are there marketing surveys we can read or is this all just empty speculation?  (We do seem to know that lots of people are quite happy to use smartphones exclusively; what that tells Canon and Nikon etc. isn't so much that they have dslr demands that aren't being met but that they have no interest in dslrs - maybe Canon and Nikon should start making phones....)

And just how important is "listening to customers" anyway?  Is that what drives innovation?  Or is it more a case of supply creating demand? 

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #94 on: October 27, 2013, 07:38:10 PM »
There was a big balloon in digital imaging, that balloon has pretty much hit it's apex, now the balloon is settling into a more natural state... which means sales are slowing....as you said..."10% or more growth can't go on forever."  The market will contract, and or, is contracting.  We saw it with computers too, tech goes in waves, new tech hits, new things get the bubble effect until you hit a point where the upgrades are marginal. 

well that´s exactly what i wrote before, yes.   ;)

it´s just that cars have a different "dynamic" then cameras.
thats why you still see the market grow after all the years.
and new envolving markets like china help.

a car is not only a object of utility, it´s a social status symbol.
and cars have not seen a real competition since they exist.
subways, airplanes, trains don´t count. they are not made as individual driving vehicles.

that´s why i think it´s apples and oranges.
even when i agree with the points made about cameras.  :)
the car is just one example.  the bicycle is another...the stove, the fridge, the sink, plumbing.. or go the other way, power drills, circular saws.  Or we could take it even in another direction, musical instruments.  I guess no one plays the violin any more because what there have been no revolutionary changes in the design.

Markets will continue when there is a NEED for a product - and back to the car thing - a car is not a status symbol in all cases.  Yes, certain cars are - but unless your rich, its a utility, it gets you to work in the morning and home at night - and once it stops serving that need as well, it gets replaced.  The boom in the digital world that we've seen over the last decade is because we went from 2 MP camera's that did not stand up to the original film camera's in any way.  We've gone from that to what we have now in a short time.  And until the next big tech shift comes, we're gonna be dealing with a more stabilized market --- which isn't necessarily a bad thing...
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Lichtgestalt

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #95 on: October 27, 2013, 07:42:48 PM »
Quote
(And if better shadow performance is something you would "gladly pay for",  and since you're envious of the D800 (and presumably D600/610, whose DR is about the same), why don't you gladly jump over to Nikon?  It's not difficult to switch, and except for camera bodies bought new there's little loss involved.)

as i wrote before... i don´t see the D800 numbers translate into better image quality.
i have looked at many D800 images but i just don´t see the additional 14MP making a big difference.

thought... what i do see is the cleaner results when pushing shadows.
that´s one thing i like to be improved on canon sensors, besides better DR.
i mean... when i buy the 5D MK4 i like to see some improvements or i could stick to my 5D MK3... right? :)
and those are the improvements i would like to see.

when i can expose for the highlights and then be able to push the shadows that´s often worth a lot. the cleaner the results the better. and i have to say the D800 has the edge here.
 
does it make me lose sleep... sure not.







« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 07:51:41 PM by Lichtgestalt »

neuroanatomist

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #96 on: October 27, 2013, 07:45:11 PM »
For all we know, Canon *does* listen to customers - it could be that, notwithstanding the complaining here, most customers just don't care about DR (if they really did care, wouldn't they have jumped to Nikon by now?)...

Indeed.  The aforementioned minority of DRones notwithstanding, almost no one complained about the 5DII's sensor IQ.  Canon's 'budget' FF customers complained about the AF, the responsiveness, the lack of dual card slots, etc.  Canon addressed those complaints quite effectively with the 5DIII, and anticipated the concerns of the reasonably-sized group of customers who would want an updated FF body at a cost lower than the 5DIII, and launched the 6D soon thereafter, to address those concerns.

That's the kind of listening that has kept Canon in their market-leading position.
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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #96 on: October 27, 2013, 07:45:11 PM »

Chuck Alaimo

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #97 on: October 27, 2013, 07:58:09 PM »
so yes times are changing.. but the problem is... the innovations you guys want will not solve the problem.

I agree with you on many of your points, Lichtgestalt, but the problem is one of Canon (and the entire dSLR industry's) own making.  Cranking out an "updated" camera every three years at an exorbitant price-premium with minimal, if any, feature changes, is not a way to run a business or get brand loyalty.  Yes, it's worked for Apple, but they are the lone wolf in this regard and can run their business that way due to their rabid fanbase.  dSLR users by nature, are a much more finicky bunch that won't be duped by minor spec improvements.  The "check out our new dual-pixel AF!!  Now give us 1,200 of your hard earned dollars!!" marketing approach just doesn't work on the majority of us.  We're simply not that impressed by the cost per feature.  And as you stated, many of us already have dSLRs and the image quality is fine, so getting us to shell out $3,200 for the next FF consumer model is a tough sell.  Heck, the 8 year old 10MP 40D is still more than plenty for the average enthusiast, and one of the first bodies I recommend to new dSLR shooters.

That said, I still think massive innovations can be made.  I, for one, am still clamoring for a sensor that mimic's the dynamic range of film.  I don't need 40+ MP, but having better shadow performance would be something I would gladly pay for.  (and something I am still envious of regarding the D800)

But this is all nit-picking silliness that only demonstrates the point I think we all agree on... the dSLR manufacturers are on an unsustainable trajectory.  Without major shifts, and I'm not sure what those shifts should be, they will only hasten their own loss of market share.

What feature would be so dazzling then?  ISO's have been pushed from a usable 1600 to a usable 12,800 or higher....not dazzling.  Pixel peepers here will always site the Exmor DR, but in all the ad's I see for nikon, the selling factor is more like "look, ashton kutcher uses a nikon - he's cool, you want to be cool, buy nikon."  I don't see many ads saying...14 stops of DR....  dual pixel AF...a nice development - but again, mind blowing it isn't.

If this is true - "Heck, the 8 year old 10MP 40D is still more than plenty for the average enthusiast, and one of the first bodies I recommend to new dSLR shooters," then isn't it safe to say we don't even need the marginal updates.  the 8 year old 40d is enough, so why bother putting all that R&D money into developing anything?   

Also, if this 8 year old tech is still more than plenty for most then how can you say this - "But this is all nit-picking silliness that only demonstrates the point I think we all agree on... the dSLR manufacturers are on an unsustainable trajectory.  Without major shifts, and I'm not sure what those shifts should be, they will only hasten their own loss of market share."  Time will tell, if i am right then this is just a market correction, we've had the bubble now things can level out.  Or, is the threat f the cell phone so big that it will cause the whole damn market to crumble?  I highly doubt it, but realize this ---if my theory is right then don't expect mind blowing changes....   
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Woody

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #98 on: October 27, 2013, 08:43:49 PM »
Although most folks attribute this lowering of profit margins to users switching from cameras to to camera phones, the reality is that Canon market shares for DSLRs (STILL outselling mirrorless cameras by a ratio of 4:1) has dropped in the USA. According to Thom Hogan, Nikon has nearly caught up with Canon DSLR market shares in USA. Not a good sign for Canon if this is true.

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #99 on: October 28, 2013, 02:00:15 AM »
Although most folks attribute this lowering of profit margins to users switching from cameras to to camera phones, the reality is that Canon market shares for DSLRs (STILL outselling mirrorless cameras by a ratio of 4:1) has dropped in the USA.

Some folks have already noted other reasons for that, some of which are not Canon's (or any other manufacturer's) fault, e.g. economy in large, and cameras becoming sufficiently mature for the market to pay for lot less upgrades.

According to Thom Hogan, Nikon has nearly caught up with Canon DSLR market shares in USA. Not a good sign for Canon if this is true.

Indeed.

neuroanatomist

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #100 on: October 28, 2013, 02:57:38 AM »
understanding  or not,  there is no Canon lenses in the top along with 5dmk3

well... but if you look at what the 5D MK3 actually can achive with it´s 22 MP... it doesn´t look that bad uh?

http://www.dxomark.com/Reviews/Nikon-AF-S-Nikkor-500mm-and-600mm-f-4G-ED-VR-lens-reviews-legendary-performers-in-the-range/Nikon-AF-S-NIKKOR-500mm-f-4G-ED-VR-fights-off-both-Canon-and-Sony

29Mp resolution from d800 with a good lens  is around 10 Mp better compared to 5dmk3..

Ahhhh, so Nikon's 500mm f/4 VR isn't a good lens.   ::)
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Ivar

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #101 on: October 28, 2013, 05:35:16 AM »
I might be in complete minority, but personally I find/found the Canon recent offers so uninspiring that I switched.
That said I miss some Canon qualities like the handling feel and the lenses, though in overall I'm at the time being more happy with what I have now. Still open to any future propositions, I have a feeling for some great announcements happening at Photokina next year, from all the makers.



 


sanj

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #102 on: October 28, 2013, 05:38:19 AM »
I have been trying to gift my daughter the 1000D camera for a while now. She outright shows disinterest. She says she is very happy with her old point shoot camera and even the camera on her ipad. She is 16. She takes photos all the time and posts in face book, instagram etc.
She sees me buying top cameras all the time...

I am sure there are lots other like her.

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #102 on: October 28, 2013, 05:38:19 AM »

J.R.

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #103 on: October 28, 2013, 06:32:59 AM »
I have been trying to gift my daughter the 1000D camera for a while now. She outright shows disinterest. She says she is very happy with her old point shoot camera and even the camera on her ipad. She is 16. She takes photos all the time and posts in face book, instagram etc.
She sees me buying top cameras all the time...

I am sure there are lots other like her.

That is exactly what is happening. More and more photos are being pushed online and on FB people are getting less and less concerned about the IQ. The photos have turned into record shots to be shared with everyone.

For any special occasion you will be invited with a caveat - "make sure to bring your camera along"
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J.R.

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #104 on: October 28, 2013, 06:33:56 AM »
understanding  or not,  there is no Canon lenses in the top along with 5dmk3

well... but if you look at what the 5D MK3 actually can achive with it´s 22 MP... it doesn´t look that bad uh?

http://www.dxomark.com/Reviews/Nikon-AF-S-Nikkor-500mm-and-600mm-f-4G-ED-VR-lens-reviews-legendary-performers-in-the-range/Nikon-AF-S-NIKKOR-500mm-f-4G-ED-VR-fights-off-both-Canon-and-Sony

29Mp resolution from d800 with a good lens  is around 10 Mp better compared to 5dmk3..

Ahhhh, so Nikon's 500mm f/4 VR isn't a good lens.   ::)

Nikon and Canon 500mm are so similar they could be regarding a real MTF test . The distance that DXO uses when they measuring up cameras and lenses plays an important role when these lenses are optimized at a certain distance.

why haven't you sold all your Canon gear and moved over to Nikon?
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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #104 on: October 28, 2013, 06:33:56 AM »