People that are satisfied taking pictures with there phones most likely never where in the DSLR market to begin with.
Thats just the social pic snappers people that like good quality pics will always want a DSLR but hey its recession/crisis. My free spendable income keeps going down as insurancen, Food and everything keeps going up in price and my income isnt going up.
so i simply do not have money for thoustant dollar bodys and multi thousant dollar lenses.
The last generation canon lensen have had some seriously absurd price gains which most normal non professionals simply can no longer afford.
I agree here, it's not the smartphones eating into the dSLR market, the smartphones kill the P&S cameras.
I think several things come together for dSLRs:
1) the dSLR market is quite mature now. In a decade, a remarkable improvement happened in sensor technology, so there was incentive to switch from film to digital, there was incentive to upgrade to a new model dSLR. So, there was a big "bubble" so to speak of pent up demand that could be satisfied. Many people that would buy a dSLR have one by now probably. Now, I think the market will return more to a level situation where you go through normal replacement cycles. People will think twice before they buy a new body, "does it really give much more than what I already have?" That's why Canon and everybody is also pushing the video area, to keep adding new features and thereby a market sector not yet saturated. Even that is not enough anymore, as camera makers are looking into medium format, and security camera businesses.
Pushing more megapixels (D800) down the throat of people is probably not giving the huge sales increases hoped for - many people realize that files get huge and the improvement in quality is minimal if one doesn't invest time and effort to get the maximum out of the sensor. And most images are viewed on screens that don't have such a high resolution. Likewise, the dynamic range wars (whether 12 or 14 stops) are incremental gains that will not cause a huge boost to the market.
Of course, there will always be pros, and tech users that go for the top - as with computers, where gamers build their own customized ultimate gaming machines, but this is a limited market.
2) As pointed out, weak economy, people need to save.
3) Maybe less newcomers to the market. There tend to be fads of what's a hot hobby, maybe the hype for pictures is somewhat dying down, people being oversaturated with images flooding the web.
So, the only way to get a lot of people to buy new cameras is with a substantial innovation in sensor technology.
Agreed! Well, mostly agree - "it's not the smartphones eating into the dSLR market, the smartphones kill the P&S cameras." A product gets replaced when either A something better comes around, or B, it gets broken, lost, stolen, you baby pukes on it, you brother drops it in the pool, - or you use it all the time and it's just time to replace it, etc etc etc. If when you leave the house you look at your little slr bag say 90% of the time, i don't want to lug that around then it's gonna be used less, less miles = less wear and tear, less chances for it to be broken and or stolen, or any of the other calamities mentioned above. If you use it less, then the need to upgrade is less, and while yeah there are obvious benefits of going from like a rebel to a 70d, or a 6d, etc etc, is there a need when my cell phone seems to do just fine and hell, i can bring my cell phone anywhere ---
And this is a biggie here --- think of how many awesome events people would love to bring their cameras too but can't because the venue does not allow pro gear (which most venues describe as anything with an interchangeable lens). Stuff like that leads to a lot of leaving the camera at home...
this i do think would lead to less people taking the leap into the slr market - which leads right to where I totally agree --- the slr market is a mature market, less people are jumping in. Last year both canon and nikon released pro bodies and people bought them, that buying frenzy has slowed and we're now between product cycles. Yeah, there's a new rebel and the new 70d, and nikon has their equivalent models --- and if you ask me, that's the market that will suffer from the growing use of cell phones.
Let's face it, the marketing side is based off of the upgrade path:
1 - wow, loving taking pics on my cell phone, but want more control
2 - nice, bought my first P&S
3 - lost it, just bought the next model up
4 - the limitations are frustrating me - time to upgrade - first slr
5 - now it's time to buy lenses
that was the basic path, you can add step 6 and 7 and 8 for those that want to take the next step --- but for the bulk of the consumer market. But now we are in the social network age, and this is where cell phones jack everything up. the average consumer cares more about instant access than quality. Yeah, the slr shot can be printed huge, but does that get my picture to facebook any easier? Adding wifi to slr's does help on this side, but, I think slr's at least in the consumer bracket need a more robust web interface if they are to compete with cell phones in that market.
Of course, then there's the pro market, which will care about quality, which will whine about DR, banding, all the stuff we hear all the time here. But the pro market would be the mature part, the part that will only upgrade where it makes sense - and other than a few lenses, there's not much new and interesting going on - and - one should point out that there shouldn't be - pros don't want to be recycling camera bodies every year - for most pros the natural 3-4 year cycle is about how long we want to be using a body. Other than that, it's lenses, and with L lenses we all know they hold their value and they don't degrade in quality as fast as a camera body - so new lens sales don't happen as often (unless they do kick ass rebate, just snagged me a 24mm 1.4 new because with the 4% back from B&H and the $200 rebate, that's close enough to used cost to make the leap).