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Author Topic: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones  (Read 16830 times)

neuroanatomist

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #75 on: October 27, 2013, 04:03:21 PM »
Many businesses are booming right now, selling luxury items at high costs (see Google, Apple iPhones/laptops, Sony Playstation, Xbox, etc.).

Of the products you highlight, only Apple laptops exceed the price of entry-level dSLRs.  Not a terribly valid economic argument.

You and the Canon-faithful are welcome to employ a dismissive attitude towards consumer complaints, but this is where it gets you; a deteriorating company stuck in a rut and unable to quickly respond to market factors.  Here we are, almost two years out from the D800 launch with no competing body in sight!  That is shameful.

The reality is simple: the 5DIII is the competing body to the D800, and it's outselling the D800 by a wide margin.  Consider that with many lenses, the D800 barely outresolves the 5DIII, and once you take it off a tripod, it's actually worse.  If MP mattered most to the market, everyone would ditch their dSLRs for Nokia phones with 41 MP.  Want to be the first of us to make the leap into the brave new world?

In the post above, AvTvM really nailed it - these companies simply decided to ignore consumers...

Well, they're ignoring him, anyway.  I find that my needs are being met just fine.  :P

Are the days of the dSLR numbered?  Quite likely...someday, cell phones will have 10 gigapixel 3D lightfield cameras that record continuously at 120 fps, and images will be instantly processed with though-controlled Photoshop Mobile.  That's a ways off, though. In the meantime, that innovative replacement to the dSLR, the MILC, is seeing sales drop faster than dSLRs, despite their lower prices.
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justsomedude

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #76 on: October 27, 2013, 04:38:36 PM »
so yes times are changing.. but the problem is... the innovations you guys want will not solve the problem.

I agree with you on many of your points, Lichtgestalt, but the problem is one of Canon (and the entire dSLR industry's) own making.  Cranking out an "updated" camera every three years at an exorbitant price-premium with minimal, if any, feature changes, is not a way to run a business or get brand loyalty.  Yes, it's worked for Apple, but they are the lone wolf in this regard and can run their business that way due to their rabid fanbase.  dSLR users by nature, are a much more finicky bunch that won't be duped by minor spec improvements.  The "check out our new dual-pixel AF!!  Now give us 1,200 of your hard earned dollars!!" marketing approach just doesn't work on the majority of us.  We're simply not that impressed by the cost per feature.  And as you stated, many of us already have dSLRs and the image quality is fine, so getting us to shell out $3,200 for the next FF consumer model is a tough sell.  Heck, the 8 year old 10MP 40D is still more than plenty for the average enthusiast, and one of the first bodies I recommend to new dSLR shooters.

That said, I still think massive innovations can be made.  I, for one, am still clamoring for a sensor that mimic's the dynamic range of film.  I don't need 40+ MP, but having better shadow performance would be something I would gladly pay for.  (and something I am still envious of regarding the D800)

But this is all nit-picking silliness that only demonstrates the point I think we all agree on... the dSLR manufacturers are on an unsustainable trajectory.  Without major shifts, and I'm not sure what those shifts should be, they will only hasten their own loss of market share.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 04:40:50 PM by justsomedude »

Orangutan

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #77 on: October 27, 2013, 04:41:15 PM »
It's so obvoius... Don't you guys see it?

In the post above, AvTvM really nailed it - these companies simply decided to ignore consumers


OK, let me see if I understand you: you seem to be saying that consumers are punishing Canon (and others) not by buying a similar product from a competing brand, but rather by not upgrading frequently and enthusiastically, regardless of brand?  I.e., consumer says "70D isn't a big enough upgrade from the 60D, I'll keep what I have for another two years" rather than "I'll go buy a D610 and Nikon lenses?"

If that's your point at least it's remotely plausible, but it would take some serious market research to show it to be more than speculation.

Edit: I should note that this happens to be true for me: the 70D did not offer enough to make me upgrade from my 60D.  However, I'm only one example, so this says nothing for the market as a whole.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 04:48:47 PM by Orangutan »

justsomedude

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #78 on: October 27, 2013, 04:49:16 PM »
Of the products you highlight, only Apple laptops exceed the price of entry-level dSLRs.  Not a terribly valid economic argument.

Given that the entire article points to consumers using $600 iPhones in place of $600 entry-level dSLRs, I think it's an incredibly valid point.  And one that I'm sure Canon's market strategist won't be as quick to ignore.

The reality is simple: the 5DIII is the competing body to the D800, and it's outselling the D800 by a wide margin. 

That's all fine and dandy, but the 5D3 still can't hold a candle to the dynamic range of the D800.  Sure, when you throw in DUAL-ISO hacks you can get there, but out of the box shadow performance is far from equal.

Well, they're ignoring him, anyway.  I find that my needs are being met just fine.  :P

That's fine, I just don't think ignoring those who are not 100% satisfied by Canon is a logical approach.  And telling them to go to another forum seems downright condescending and rude.  I think the best use of forums is to discuss opposing viewpoints, not banish them. 

It would behoove you to understand the mentality of the dissatisfied user base.  For there are many of us who still continue to use Canon loyally, on a daily basis as part of our business.  We just find their approach to their product line "evolution" to be somewhat, how shall I say this, disingenuous with respect to the advanced shooter.

Lichtgestalt

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #79 on: October 27, 2013, 04:55:03 PM »
  Heck, the 8 year old 10MP 40D is still more than plenty for the average enthusiast, and one of the first bodies I recommend to new dSLR shooters.

yep.. a decade ago most people could only dream to have a digital SLR (i was one of them).
i was shooting film for a relativ long time. i switched to digital at the end of 2008.

today most who are interested in a DSLR have one .. or two..or three.. or.. :)

and as you wrote, 10x15cm prints from a 8 year old camera don´t look much different then from a 1D X.  :)

and that´s what most people do... 10x15cm or 13x18cm prints. if they print out photos at all.
that´s why my uncle is still happy with his D90.

this market can´t grow forever.

im also not really interested in a mirrorless DSLR.
not yet... i have seen all the latest EVF and im still not 100% happy with them.

the size advantages of a mirroless is not that important for me.
the current canon DSLR´s have the right size for my hands.
handling feels natural. i don´t want a tiny camera body.

and when i want a camera i can carry all day in my pocket, all mirrorless FF cameras would be to big anyway.




« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 05:03:51 PM by Lichtgestalt »

Chuck Alaimo

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #80 on: October 27, 2013, 04:58:18 PM »
it is very simple. Canon and Nikon are being punished for not having brought to market DSLRs that are both affordable and interesting to regular-income photo enthusiasts. Lack of  interesting products ... less sales. 1 Million less incrementally boring DSLR-iterations ... hahaha, I love it. Customers are king, after all.

Two years ago (late 2012) Canon and Nikon missed the boat. No compelling and affordable APS-C DSLRs. No D400. No 7D II. Pricing closer to USD 1000 than to 2000. Of course with built- in GPS, Wifi, and in Canon's case EX-RT radio flash trigger. And fully articulated LCD (not just tilt!). For Canon the old 45-point 1 AF system plus a kick-ass 24MP APS-C sensor, half a notch better DR and Hi-ISO than the Nikon D7100 sensor. Nikon would have easily gotten away with the D7100 sensor and AF system (Multicam 3500DX).

And today, CaNikon are missing the boat again, because they have no mirrorless FF MILCs ready now and it looks they will not even have one ready within the year.

These days, only a few budget-restricted, conservative die-hards insisting on OVF are willing to swallow marketing-crippled FF DSLRs (6D, D610) still priced at more than 1500. All others are buying Fuji APS-C instead and/or are will be buying innovative and more affordable FF-mirrorless cams.

CaNikon are in for a lot of punishment. Well deserved.


??????   i think your asking for a miracle here and I think your wrong on a bunch of levels --- innovating the $1000 level bodies I think at this point is a death wish - the $1000 body segment of the market is exactly the folks saying why spend money when my phone can do the trick.  You can't draw blood from a stone - and i said this before - even cell phone makes will suffer from this too because what else can you do at this stage that's revolutionary????  DR, it's been done, it's been argued, it's been the dead horse beaten and you know what.. an increase in DR may be a major improvement for the pro/ serious enthusiast crowd ....

But, the $1000 body crowd is gonna be falling in line with that cell phone crowd...and they don't need DR, they don't need mp's...they need that easy way to facebook it..  Many of these users will love that wifi, they may even shoot in raw, but, right after shooting use the picture viewer on the phone, then use some phone based editing software, then instagram and faebook it.  Pros and entusiasts are looking for different things (i have to wonder at some here, the whole lack of gps in a 5d3 crowd, that i think is not the norm - but hey, a sale is a sale, for every person buying the 6d for the gps wifi, there is another person buying it for the good FF sensor and basic interface).

And then there's the whole mirrorless thing?  Mirrorless is a new market finding its way, it may become a dominant format, or, it may go the way of betamax ---- and, let me get this right, you want revolutionary DSLR's and Revolutionary mirrorless - i say pick one or the other and put your resources there...

ohhh and sorry, maybe some casual users/ entusiasts/ people looking for a decent camera to bring on vacation are going for the  Fuji APS-C and or olympus models --- but, I have not seen one pro/semipro/emerging pro show up to any kind of event with one of those. 

In summation, I just don't understand where your coming from...
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justsomedude

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #81 on: October 27, 2013, 05:00:01 PM »
  Heck, the 8 year old 10MP 40D is still more than plenty for the average enthusiast, and one of the first bodies I recommend to new dSLR shooters.

yep.. a decade ago most people could only dream to have a digital SLR (i was one of them).
today most who are interested in a DSLR have one .. or two..or three.. or.. :)

and as you wrote, 10x15cm prints from a 8 year old camera don´t look much different then from a 1D X.  :)

and that´s what most people do... 10x15 or 13x18 prints. if they print out photos at all.
that´s why my uncle is still happy with his D90.

this market can´t grow forever.

im also not really interested in a mirrorless DSLR.
not yet... i have seen all the latest EVF and im still not 100% happy with them.

the size advantages of a mirroless is not that important for me.
the current canon DSLR´s have the right size for my hands.
handling feels natural. i don´t want a tiny camera body.

So, your argument is what, then... there's no innovation left?  dSLRs are dead?  That sounds like what you're saying since you're not offering any alternatives. 

And do you really want to argue that some markets can't grow forever?

You might want to talk to Apple about that.  There has been no major change in their phones in ages, yet they crank them out at top tier prices and continuously break sales records.  If they start stealing dSLR market share with a handheld 1/8" sensor mirrorless "camera" that's built into a mobile phone device, you'll be darn tootin' that Canon will be right there with a new product to compete.

I think there is plenty of innovation left, Canon just chooses to rest on its laurels. 

Lichtgestalt

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #82 on: October 27, 2013, 05:03:06 PM »
ohhh and sorry, maybe some casual users/ entusiasts/ people looking for a decent camera to bring on vacation are going for the  Fuji APS-C and or olympus models --- but, I have not seen one pro/semipro/emerging pro show up to any kind of event with one of those. 


zack arias maybe.. he seems to love the fuji. ;)


Lichtgestalt

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #83 on: October 27, 2013, 05:10:03 PM »

So, your argument is what, then... there's no innovation left?  dSLRs are dead? 

not for us enthusiast and pros.
but there will be diminishing returns we will have to face.
who really needs 80MP cameras? only a very small percentage.
and of course there will be some pixelpeeper who even buy a gigapixel camera. ;)

DR can be improved and that´s something i like to see.
but most consumers don´t care much about DR.
it´s again the enthusiast and pros who are interested in better DR.

but i guess the low end is pretty much dead in a few years, yes.


Quote
And do you really want to argue that some markets can't grow forever?

yes. history proves me right. :)
smartphones are pretty new... they will see their decline too.
at some point there will be a new technology replacing traditional smartphones. 

and i think you can not really compare communication technology to cameras.
we all have an urge and need to communicate.. but not everyone is a photographer.

ps:
and apple is a status symbol for some.. as crazy as that sounds.
it´s not rational. they feel bad when they don´t have the latest and their colleagues have.

it reminds me a bit on the 80s when i was in school.. some kids where "hip" because of their trainers....  ::)
« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 05:24:01 PM by Lichtgestalt »

Lichtgestalt

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #84 on: October 27, 2013, 05:51:13 PM »
barely outresolves? Strong words.
http://www.dxomark.com/Lenses/Camera-Lens-Ratings, there are no Canon lenses in the top

Quote
It is hard to get a real comparison when Canon has no high end resolution camera

ah... a glimpse of understanding.

the results are not lens results.. they are LENS + SENSOR results.

to have lens results you best have an infinite resolving sensor.

Chuck Alaimo

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #85 on: October 27, 2013, 06:11:23 PM »

So, your argument is what, then... there's no innovation left?  dSLRs are dead? 

not for us enthusiast and pros.
but there will be diminishing returns we will have to face.
who really needs 80MP cameras? only a very small percentage.
and of course there will be some pixelpeeper who even buy a gigapixel camera. ;)

DR can be improved and that´s something i like to see.
but most consumers don´t care much about DR.
it´s again the enthusiast and pros who are interested in better DR.

but i guess the low end is pretty much dead in a few years, yes.


Quote
And do you really want to argue that some markets can't grow forever?

yes. history proves me right. :)
smartphones are pretty new... they will see their decline too.
at some point there will be a new technology replacing traditional smartphones. 

and i think you can not really compare communication technology to cameras.
we all have an urge and need to communicate.. but not everyone is a photographer.

ps:
and apple is a status symbol for some.. as crazy as that sounds.
it´s not rational. they feel bad when they don´t have the latest and their colleagues have.

it reminds me a bit on the 80s when i was in school.. some kids where "hip" because of their trainers....  ::)


wow...so the automobile must be dead too because there have been no earth shattering upgrades in decades!!!!

just because we've hit diminishing returns that doesn't mean people won't buy, it's just buying on a different schedule.  I mean, is there anything reallly oh god ground breaking between that 2002 toyota corrola and the 20010 toyota corrolla you just bought?  A few bells and whisltles, but, its the same size, handles the same, ohh..the old one was blue tand this one is green...did you trade in that 2002 corrolla because oh my, i need that reverse camera?  or, was it because the 2002 needed a new exhaust system, and the suspension was shot, and the check engine light was on, and it was topping 175,000 miles....

When tech is in a growth mode, yes, we see lots more sales because each new product cycle does have a more tangible benefit ---but, what's more to do other than marginal upgrades?  Hell, I'd even take that ...screw sensor design, lets find a way to increase the sync speed for FF shutters....I'd love that, it would rock, but is it revolutionary?   No, it's a marginal upgrade.

the car example is just one of what we see and use and buy regularly ---- LOL --- by the logic of it must revolutionize or the market dies...it's true, yeah (sarcasm), this is why hammer sales are down, I mean, when was the last revolutionary upgrade to the hammer! 

As another poster stated --- the dslr market has matured, and that means we are now gonna be buying stuff because we need it more than because oh my it's got all these bells and whistles...AKA, my body is hitting the edge the shutter's lifespan, gee, maybe it's now worth it to just have a new shutter installed?????  Is that really such a bad thing that maybe we can find ourselves with less disposable tech????????
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Lichtgestalt

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #86 on: October 27, 2013, 06:12:26 PM »
understanding  or not,  there is no Canon lenses in the top along with 5dmk3

well... but if you look at what the 5D MK3 actually can achive with it´s 22 MP... it doesn´t look that bad uh?


http://www.dxomark.com/Reviews/Nikon-AF-S-Nikkor-500mm-and-600mm-f-4G-ED-VR-lens-reviews-legendary-performers-in-the-range/Nikon-AF-S-NIKKOR-500mm-f-4G-ED-VR-fights-off-both-Canon-and-Sony


Lichtgestalt

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #87 on: October 27, 2013, 06:16:42 PM »
wow...so the automobile must be dead too because there have been no earth shattering upgrades in decades!!!!

apples and oranges as usual when someone brings a car analogy.   ;)

Quote
the car example is just one of what we see and use and buy regularly ---- LOL --- by the logic of it must revolutionize or the market dies...

i guess you quoted my post but the argumention is aimed at justsomedude?
because i fully agree here.

stop growing does not mean dying.

but cars are a status symbol. more then rebel DSLR´s.
it doesn´t look good when you drive a rusty 2002 corrolla. 

and are their new alternatives to cars?
has the car market seen a competition like cameras have with smartphones?
notice i wrote cameras not DSLR´s. :)

i don´t see how the camera market can grow when the wide base (low end DSLR and P&S) is breaking away.

as i wrote i don´t think DSLR´s will be dead.
even with smaller technological steps there will always be people who want a DSLR (or fullframe interchangeable lens system).
it´s just that i think low end DSLR will get less attractive.


Quote
As another poster stated --- the dslr market has matured, and that means we are now gonna be buying stuff because we need it more than because oh my it's got all these bells and whistles...AKA, my body is hitting the edge the shutter's lifespan, gee, maybe it's now worth it to just have a new shutter installed??  Is that really such a bad thing that maybe we can find ourselves with less disposable tech??

it´s sure not a bad thing.
and a reason you can not expect the 10% increase per year to go on forever.
« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 06:49:12 PM by Lichtgestalt »

Chuck Alaimo

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #88 on: October 27, 2013, 06:49:00 PM »
wow...so the automobile must be dead too because there have been no earth shattering upgrades in decades!!!!

apples and oranges as usual when someone brings a car analogy.   ;)

Quote
the car example is just one of what we see and use and buy regularly ---- LOL --- by the logic of it must revolutionize or the market dies...

stop growing does not mean dying.

and again, cars are a status symbol. more then rebel DSLR´s.
it doesn´t look good when you drive a rusty 2002 corrolla. 

and are their new alternatives to cars?
has the car market seen a competition like cameras have with smartphones?
notice i wrote cameras not DSLR´s. :)

i don´t see how the camera market can grow when the wide base (low end DSLR and P&S) is breaking away.

Quote
As another poster stated --- the dslr market has matured, and that means we are now gonna be buying stuff because we need it more than because oh my it's got all these bells and whistles...AKA, my body is hitting the edge the shutter's lifespan, gee, maybe it's now worth it to just have a new shutter installed??  Is that really such a bad thing that maybe we can find ourselves with less disposable tech??

it´s sure not a bad thing.
and a reason you can not expect the 10% increase per year to go on forever.


Realize that your end statement only proves not only my point, the point of a few others here ---

There was a big balloon in digital imaging, that balloon has pretty much hit it's apex, now the balloon is settling into a more natural state... which means sales are slowing....as you said..."10% or more growth can't go on forever."  The market will contract, and or, is contracting.  We saw it with computers too, tech goes in waves, new tech hits, new things get the bubble effect until you hit a point where the upgrades are marginal. 

You say my car anaology doesn't rwork...apples and oranges...most car analogies here are trying to say this model is like a toyota and this is like a BMW ---all i am saying is this isn't a matter of product a being better than the other product:

As many have said - camera bodies are tools to get a job done.  We've been in the ballon, now the ballon is contracting...so the updates will not be revolutionary, they will be marginal --- the decision to buy a new camera body won't be because my business will be harmed because the other guy has better tech, but like any other tool - you replace it when needed...that's the car analogy too, your not buying the same model car but a newer version for the feature set, your buying it because the old one was worn out!

with that said, even though the bubble is contracting, I am betting we will see improvements that are slightly more than evolutionary, but nothing earth shattering.
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Lichtgestalt

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Re: Canon Cuts Full-Year Forecast as Camera Users Switch to Phones
« Reply #89 on: October 27, 2013, 06:56:27 PM »
There was a big balloon in digital imaging, that balloon has pretty much hit it's apex, now the balloon is settling into a more natural state... which means sales are slowing....as you said..."10% or more growth can't go on forever."  The market will contract, and or, is contracting.  We saw it with computers too, tech goes in waves, new tech hits, new things get the bubble effect until you hit a point where the upgrades are marginal. 

well that´s exactly what i wrote before, yes.   ;)

it´s just that cars have a different "dynamic" then cameras.
thats why you still see the market grow after all the years.
and new envolving markets like china help.

a car is not only a object of utility, it´s a social status symbol.
and cars have not seen a real competition since they exist.
subways, airplanes, trains don´t count. they are not made as individual driving vehicles.

that´s why i think it´s apples and oranges.
even when i agree with the points made about cameras.  :)
« Last Edit: October 27, 2013, 06:59:53 PM by Lichtgestalt »