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Author Topic: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"  (Read 25969 times)

Sporgon

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2013, 05:28:27 PM »
His second point sums it up: satisfied with current Dslr's.

I'm sure with most happy snappers the quality of the rear LCD was of more importance than minor improvements in IQ. The advances are slowing now, you can only go so big with the LCD.

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #15 on: October 27, 2013, 05:28:27 PM »

Chuck Alaimo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #16 on: October 27, 2013, 05:42:45 PM »
The Sony A7 is a nail in the coffin of Canon’s full frame line-up but it’s consumer apathy which will finally close the lid.

http://www.eoshd.com/content/11409/consumer-dslrs-dead-5-years

ahhhh...I remember betamax, and laser disks....ahhhhh...great formats right....

the best in their times.
but that doesn´t mean much...

Yup, because other formats won the battle --- as most point out, beta was far superior to VHS, but, in the end, VHS won.  Sometimes the better thing does not win.
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paul13walnut5

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #17 on: October 27, 2013, 05:43:00 PM »
The odd curiosity is that Sony, despite dominating the professional video marker since forever, despite developing most of the technology that comprises a DSLR sensor, have never really caught the publics imagination in the way that Canon and Nikon had (a problem they inhereted from Minolta to be fair)
So is Alpha dead?  Is NEX dead? Now this new system.

What about SLT?  Wasn't that going to kill of the SLR?  If I had bought into Sony DSLRs when they first arrived, and then bought say an a700 or a900, I would be pretty pithed off.

Every year they change the game, and every second year they change it again.

Folk spending serious money on kit are in it for the long haul.  Nikon may have DxO foaming at the mouth for now, but all it takes is a camera launch and those who blow with the wind will be coming back to Canon.

Sony are pretty knackered as an entirity, they've been making grand claims for the last few years about market share projections etc, yet continually re-invent, re-lauch.  There is no consistency, no grand vision.

If you have L or AF-D lenses, you've bought into a system.  You'll play the long game.  Sony just aren't.

An Sony know this, thus the efforts to make bodies that folk can adapt their lenses to.

Sony have historically bought in low end canon lenses for their cheaper camcorders and point and shoots, and used zeiss designs for their decent stuff, in the high end broadcast market it's always been fujinon or canon lenses.

Maybe Sony just don't like make lenses, or have realised that the only way they are going to compete is to let their users adapt their existing canon or nikon lenses.

I find it hilarious to see all these metabones EF to NEX adaptors, blackmagic EF etc,  If I had a free choice of lenses to use for video, canon EF would be actually quite far down the list... no iris ring, mostly not parfocal, rubbish scales.

Don't get me wrong, I love them for stills, and I have them so use them for video, and get results I'm pleased with, and I'm going to use a c100 because of these same lenses I've berated.

But the point is, Sony have brought out an interesting camera, in much the same way as Minolta always did interesting things (wireless flash and off film E-TTL years before anybody else) it's not going to topple Canon or Nikon, because of breadth of range, quality and sheer fanboy loyalty.

Lichtgestalt

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #18 on: October 27, 2013, 05:52:13 PM »

What about SLT?  Wasn't that going to kill of the SLR?  If I had bought into Sony DSLRs when they first arrived, and then bought say an a700 or a900, I would be pretty pithed off.

old stuff.. canon had it in a pro camera decades ago.

and as you see in todays sonys.. it´s not perfect either.

paul13walnut5

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #19 on: October 27, 2013, 05:56:23 PM »

What about SLT?  Wasn't that going to kill of the SLR?  If I had bought into Sony DSLRs when they first arrived, and then bought say an a700 or a900, I would be pretty pithed off.

old stuff.. canon had it in a pro camera decades ago.

and as you see in todays sonys.. it´s not perfect either.

I know, I remember the Pellix and the EOS RT.  Sony had it that they had re-invented the wheel. 

Chuck Alaimo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #20 on: October 27, 2013, 05:59:19 PM »
The odd curiosity is that Sony, despite dominating the professional video marker since forever, despite developing most of the technology that comprises a DSLR sensor, have never really caught the publics imagination in the way that Canon and Nikon had (a problem they inhereted from Minolta to be fair)
So is Alpha dead?  Is NEX dead? Now this new system.

What about SLT?  Wasn't that going to kill of the SLR?  If I had bought into Sony DSLRs when they first arrived, and then bought say an a700 or a900, I would be pretty pithed off.

Every year they change the game, and every second year they change it again.

Folk spending serious money on kit are in it for the long haul.  Nikon may have DxO foaming at the mouth for now, but all it takes is a camera launch and those who blow with the wind will be coming back to Canon.

Sony are pretty knackered as an entirity, they've been making grand claims for the last few years about market share projections etc, yet continually re-invent, re-lauch.  There is no consistency, no grand vision.

If you have L or AF-D lenses, you've bought into a system.  You'll play the long game.  Sony just aren't.

An Sony know this, thus the efforts to make bodies that folk can adapt their lenses to.

Sony have historically bought in low end canon lenses for their cheaper camcorders and point and shoots, and used zeiss designs for their decent stuff, in the high end broadcast market it's always been fujinon or canon lenses.

Maybe Sony just don't like make lenses, or have realised that the only way they are going to compete is to let their users adapt their existing canon or nikon lenses.

I find it hilarious to see all these metabones EF to NEX adaptors, blackmagic EF etc,  If I had a free choice of lenses to use for video, canon EF would be actually quite far down the list... no iris ring, mostly not parfocal, rubbish scales.

Don't get me wrong, I love them for stills, and I have them so use them for video, and get results I'm pleased with, and I'm going to use a c100 because of these same lenses I've berated.

But the point is, Sony have brought out an interesting camera, in much the same way as Minolta always did interesting things (wireless flash and off film E-TTL years before anybody else) it's not going to topple Canon or Nikon, because of breadth of range, quality and sheer fanboy loyalty.

the biggest point here is the "Every year they change the game, and every second year they change it again."  sony has their hands dipped into way too many buckets right now.  As the debate regarding the future of canon/nikon continues - all this energy into what cell phones are doing to the market - for nikon, I'd be more worried on the reliance on sony for their exmor sensors.  Sony may make some great stuff, but, they make a ton of it across many lines ---  new playstation, new Vaio's, oh, they make monitors too, cd players, recievers, speakers, cell phones, etc etc etc .... in terms of photography, the commitment to maintaining a product is, well, spotty at best.  Not the kind of thing working pro's will want to invest in --- as a working pro, yeah, give good running, solid cameras and lenses, marginal upgrades, sure, I will take them ---- in fact --- I'd rather marginal upgrades over lets jump the shark upgrades----

which yeah, brings us to mirrorless ----- why isn't canon or nikon putting a ton into mirrorless ---because why would they?  they have tons of people who have invested into the current lens system ---and they want more ---would you want canon to release a statement like:

We apologize to our DSLR userbase, because due to budgets we are dropping all R&D on the 14-24mm 2.8L in order to put all our time and energy into mirroless tech."

Or worse, "we regret to inform you than we are dropping the DSLR format and moving to mirrorless bodies.  all of your lenses are now obsolete, please refer to our listy of EOs-M lenses...."

The way i see it, mirrorless tech will be a part of the future, but, only when the EVF will be as good in all situations as a OVF, and ---when the size factor is changed to allow for larger mirrorless bodies that will use EF lenses!  If the only benefit to mirrorless is size and weight, then it will not be for pro use --- those are standard consumer needs... So, mirrorless needs to grow up if it wants to stay around and be more than a novelty item
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dilbert

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2013, 06:05:43 PM »
But the point is, Sony have brought out an interesting camera, in much the same way as Minolta always did interesting things (wireless flash and off film E-TTL years before anybody else) it's not going to topple Canon or Nikon, because of breadth of range, quality and sheer fanboy loyalty.

Eventually camera fanboy loyalty will be laughed at in the same way that car manufacturer loyalty is today.

Right now, Sony has the broadest range of digital cameras, not Canon - the only model Sony is missing is a MILC in m4/3rds.

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2013, 06:05:43 PM »

paul13walnut5

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #22 on: October 27, 2013, 06:09:39 PM »
The interesting thing about the new Sony is that if you are a previous customer who has shown them any loyalty at all then you'll only need to carry about 4 adaptors with you to use your previous lenses.

Same thing if you bought an Olympus E or Panasonic L.

This is where Canon ballsed up a little with the M. EF and EF-m lenses should have fitted straight on, or the body should have came with the EF adaptor in the box.

sdsr

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2013, 06:16:08 PM »
The odd curiosity is that Sony, despite dominating the professional video marker since forever, despite developing most of the technology that comprises a DSLR sensor, have never really caught the publics imagination in the way that Canon and Nikon had (a problem they inhereted from Minolta to be fair)
So is Alpha dead?  Is NEX dead? Now this new system.

What about SLT?  Wasn't that going to kill of the SLR?  If I had bought into Sony DSLRs when they first arrived, and then bought say an a700 or a900, I would be pretty pithed off.

Every year they change the game, and every second year they change it again.


Sony claims that Alpha isn't dead (not yet, at any rate) and that they will introduce a new Alpha camera or two early next year.  Assuming that's true, I hope they're like their previous cameras, except mirrorless rather than SLT (their SLT cameras have appalling noise starting at surprisingly low ISOs), still with IBIS, unlike the A7, and, as far as I'm concerned, they can be standard dslr-size, especially if they're FF.  As someone else pointed out in this thread, it seems pointless to make a small body if most of the lenses have to be big, which is one reason why I fail to see why the A7 is a nail in anyone's coffin (except perhaps Sony's); it may be that you can attach small Leica lenses to them, but how many people will be willing to do that?  (If Canon made a mirrorless FF camera the same size as a 6D or 5DIII I would be quite pleased (though I realize few seem to agree).)

I suppose it's true that, as the article says, Canon's line-up is "boring", but to the same extent so is Nikon's; and that's presumably because, as the article noticed, the status quo for both in terms of the quality of their cameras is extremely good (DR & MP whiners notwithstanding). Meanwhile, Olympus and Panasonic seem to be responding to the far worse sales performance of mirrorless cameras by making some of the most appealing/innovative/high quality cameras out there; I guess they figure that if they make just that much more effort they can slow or stop the decline.  I wouldn't mind if they're right, but....

I don't pay much attention to ads, but it's hard not to notice that we live in a bizarre world where phone manufacturers compete on the basis of the quality of their in-phone cameras, leaving camera manufacturers to advertise themselves as taking better photos than a phone can.

sdsr

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #24 on: October 27, 2013, 06:39:06 PM »

The interesting thing about the new Sony is that if you are a previous customer who has shown them any loyalty at all then you'll only need to carry about 4 adaptors with you to use your previous lenses.


It's even worse than that: their dslrs and slt bodies all had IBIS, so if you were a loyal Sony customer chances are you don't own any lenses with built-in stabilization.  The A7 doesn't.  Oops....

paul13walnut5

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #25 on: October 27, 2013, 07:17:56 PM »
And if Sony really want to dominate the market, they could put Nikon and Pentax and a few others out of the game tomorrow by keeping their sensors to themselves.

neuroanatomist

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #26 on: October 27, 2013, 07:19:07 PM »
Right now, Sony has the broadest range of digital cameras, not Canon - the only model Sony is missing is a MILC in m4/3rds.

That would sound impressive...if Sony was actually able to sell any of them in significant numbers.  ::)
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Bennymiata

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2013, 07:42:14 PM »
I think mirrorless cameras are just a fad and will die out in a dozen years or so.
Point and squirts will also die as smartphones get better cameras in them too.

A couple of weeks ago, I got a new Samsung Note 3 phone (and the watch too), and the quality of the photos is very impressive, especially for a phone.
I don't need to carry my G1-X around anymore as the phone does a reasonable job, but I will still take my 5D3 along if I know I will be taking pictures.
I've used a few CSC cameras, and found them to be frustrating to use and difficult to hold properly, especially for slower shutter speeds.
CSC's are usually as expensive, if not more so, than a good consumer DSLR, so why would you waste your money?
If you need small, get an SL1 (EOS 100D), then you get to choose from all of Canon's lens and accessory range.

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #27 on: October 27, 2013, 07:42:14 PM »

Otara

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #28 on: October 27, 2013, 08:26:42 PM »
I end to agree the main reason is most people have bought a DSLR already and cant see the point of gettng another.   The people I know with one mostly use it only for special occasions like birthdays or holidays, and for everything else its camera phones.

As in theres my friends and I who do bird, art or underwater etc, but your average mom or pop, they're done. 

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2013, 09:15:19 PM »
More punditry from the peanut gallery.

It's an interesting article, I guess, but my view is that Cameras haven't changed in basic operation for about a Century, the basics are the same, the wrap around "bits & pieces" added on of course are huge, most of which we don't use.

It's still f/stop/Shutter speed/ISO.

The Post software thing has changed more I feel than Camera Innovation, we no longer (most of us) use Film.

The Phrase "Game Changer" seems hugely over used in this Business, 5DMK2/D800 a7r, etc etc, these aren't "innovations", they are incremental modifications & improvements.

Marketing strategy has changed hugely, we buy the incremental changes so the Marketing clearly works, sales have fallen of course, people start to see through the Marketing hype and realise the 2 year old Camera is as good at Taking Images as the New Model, why change, plus prices continue to escalate and this makes People think a little harder about that New, Innovative Game Changing Camera/Thingy.

There will be loads of Toys, like Google Glass, marketed as "Game Changing Innovations" over the coming years, but mostly they'll just be another piece of gear wrapped around an incremental change in what's effectively been the same Technology since 1850, or so.

I'm pretty sure I'll be using a 1Dxs II in 5 Years time, and enjoying it, but eventually someone will come up with a "Game Changer", look forward to seeing what that may be, haven't really seen it yet & I've been waiting 64 years.
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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #29 on: October 27, 2013, 09:15:19 PM »