October 31, 2014, 01:51:41 PM

Author Topic: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"  (Read 23903 times)

Roo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #120 on: October 29, 2013, 04:27:36 AM »
Will this thread be dead before the DSLR?  :P
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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #120 on: October 29, 2013, 04:27:36 AM »

Niki

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #121 on: October 29, 2013, 04:57:44 AM »
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cayenne

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #122 on: October 29, 2013, 01:16:00 PM »
The argument of that article, "The main problem for the Japanese camera makers though, is their continued lack of focus on software. The world has moved from a place where hardware was the dominant factor to where software is now more important", doesn't convince me either, at least for Canon modus operandi.

Proof One: Magic Lantern.

Proof Two: Canon (and maybe the rest as well) don't offer firmware upgrades once a model is replaced. For example, I found that STM lenses, although they worked on my (ancient) 5D and 30D's, they did not work very well. Now just how much effort would it be for Canon to offer a firmware upgrade for discontinued cameras just to keep the lens info up to date?

How many of the users of a specific camera model bought Magic Lantern? If you have 10,000 5D MkIII sales did 10% buy it? That's the criterion. For firmware backwards support I would agree but they want to boost new model sales. Even Microsoft teminates support of Windows older than 2 versions, that's pretty much the same analogy.

Of all this I make it the weak link is entry-level dSLRs. Someone in that segment could turn to other solutions. For the sake of the argument let's say that level is discontinued impact is prosumer and higher dSLRs become more expensive. And I wouldn't want to see the MkIV at USD4,000...

Bought Magic Lantern? 

Magic Lantern is free to download and use.

HTH,

cayenne

J.R.

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #123 on: October 29, 2013, 11:27:24 PM »
The argument of that article, "The main problem for the Japanese camera makers though, is their continued lack of focus on software. The world has moved from a place where hardware was the dominant factor to where software is now more important", doesn't convince me either, at least for Canon modus operandi.

Proof One: Magic Lantern.

Proof Two: Canon (and maybe the rest as well) don't offer firmware upgrades once a model is replaced. For example, I found that STM lenses, although they worked on my (ancient) 5D and 30D's, they did not work very well. Now just how much effort would it be for Canon to offer a firmware upgrade for discontinued cameras just to keep the lens info up to date?

How many of the users of a specific camera model bought Magic Lantern? If you have 10,000 5D MkIII sales did 10% buy it? That's the criterion. For firmware backwards support I would agree but they want to boost new model sales. Even Microsoft teminates support of Windows older than 2 versions, that's pretty much the same analogy.

Of all this I make it the weak link is entry-level dSLRs. Someone in that segment could turn to other solutions. For the sake of the argument let's say that level is discontinued impact is prosumer and higher dSLRs become more expensive. And I wouldn't want to see the MkIV at USD4,000...

Bought Magic Lantern? 

Magic Lantern is free to download and use.

HTH,

cayenne

Probably if ML put a small charge, more people would use it
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Chosenbydestiny

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #124 on: October 30, 2013, 03:03:31 AM »
The argument of that article, "The main problem for the Japanese camera makers though, is their continued lack of focus on software. The world has moved from a place where hardware was the dominant factor to where software is now more important", doesn't convince me either, at least for Canon modus operandi.

Proof One: Magic Lantern.

Proof Two: Canon (and maybe the rest as well) don't offer firmware upgrades once a model is replaced. For example, I found that STM lenses, although they worked on my (ancient) 5D and 30D's, they did not work very well. Now just how much effort would it be for Canon to offer a firmware upgrade for discontinued cameras just to keep the lens info up to date?

How many of the users of a specific camera model bought Magic Lantern? If you have 10,000 5D MkIII sales did 10% buy it? That's the criterion. For firmware backwards support I would agree but they want to boost new model sales. Even Microsoft teminates support of Windows older than 2 versions, that's pretty much the same analogy.

Of all this I make it the weak link is entry-level dSLRs. Someone in that segment could turn to other solutions. For the sake of the argument let's say that level is discontinued impact is prosumer and higher dSLRs become more expensive. And I wouldn't want to see the MkIV at USD4,000...

Bought Magic Lantern? 

Magic Lantern is free to download and use.

HTH,

cayenne

Probably if ML put a small charge, more people would use it

That would just give Canon more reason and just cause to fight against ML
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paul13walnut5

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #125 on: October 30, 2013, 04:14:43 AM »
A small charge would also require some gorm of indemnity as well.
Just now folk take the punt because it's free, or open source, pro-bono almost.

Introduce a fee then are all the guys doing great work unpaid gonna be happy? 

Will development slow?  Or be targeted at features which will generate revenue?

A fee would be the wrong way to go.

ME

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #126 on: November 27, 2013, 01:00:31 AM »
Will this thread be dead before the DSLR?  :P

Nothing to say. Just keeping this thread going. ;D
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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #126 on: November 27, 2013, 01:00:31 AM »

CarlTN

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #127 on: November 27, 2013, 02:46:56 AM »
A 5D Mark IV (assuming that is what was referenced above), will most certainly be very close to, or right at $4000, given the way Canon increases their prices over time...at least when it first comes out.  Then later the price will be cut to the $3500 range.  Whether the "rebel" range is discontinued or not by then, is irrelevant to a 5D4 price in that range.  If there are no more consumer level DSLR's from anyone (perhaps by 2018 or something), then a 5D4-type model might even go above $4000, it seems to me.  The "70D" model range will probably always be around.  Frankly, the only reason the Rebel line is appealing at all, is because it is around half the price of the "70D" type models.  I mean, I think the Rebels are toys, yet I'm considering getting another one if prices fall low enough.  An 18mp Rebel for $300 is kind of appealing.  It beats the heck out of the D3200, at least ergonomically.   

paul13walnut5

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #128 on: November 27, 2013, 05:48:02 AM »
The Rebels are great money makers for canon, and often enough gateway cameras.  The rebel user of today might be the 70D user of tomorrow, and the 5D3 user of Friday, and the 1DX user of Saturday.

Oh, yeah, and I just remembered something quite important... a lot of folk don't have $x000's to spend on camera gear, and even amongst those who do, they just might not be that into it.

Consumer DSLRs might die.  But it will be the DSLR bit, in favour of mirrorless perhaps.  The consumer end of the market will not.

jdramirez

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #129 on: November 27, 2013, 08:53:10 AM »
The Rebels are great money makers for canon, and often enough gateway cameras.  The rebel user of today might be the 70D user of tomorrow, and the 5D3 user of Friday, and the 1DX user of Saturday.

Oh, yeah, and I just remembered something quite important... a lot of folk don't have $x000's to spend on camera gear, and even amongst those who do, they just might not be that into it.

Consumer DSLRs might die.  But it will be the DSLR bit, in favour of mirrorless perhaps.  The consumer end of the market will not.

I think most people equate  bigger as better.   the mirror less might be more portable,  but slrs  look like REAL  cameras.

 people will always want to document their kids...  so there is a market. 

 much like your example, I  started with a canon xs,  then a  Canon 60d,  and now a 5dmkiii.   the entry level line is like your first hit of crack is on the house...  but after that...  you are going to pay.
Upgrade  path.->means the former was sold for the latter.

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unfocused

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #130 on: November 27, 2013, 10:05:45 AM »
people will always want to document their kids...  so there is a market. 

Notice how Canon is marketing the SL1: Mom taking pictures of three-year-old soccer player.

That's one reason why I think mirrorless are more endangered than consumer DSLRs. People age. Sooner or later the drunken "rock on" selfie gives way to kids and soccer, baseball, gymnastics, dance, horseback riding, etc. etc., all of which are much easier to document with a zoom lens looking through the optical viewfinder of a DSLR.
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dgatwood

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #131 on: November 27, 2013, 10:50:36 AM »
Few weeks ago we went to a birthday party and took some pictures for my friend's kids.  Yesterday, we met again in another party.  He asked me why your pictures are much better than mind and the focus is very accurate.  He use Sony nex 5 which should be good enough.  However, he told me that he often got motion blur and a lot of time the focus is not right.  How that could happen?

Does your camera have a maximum ISO greater than 1600?  If so, that alone is enough to explain it.  Most current cameras have nearly an order of magnitude greater max ISO than that.

Ruined

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #132 on: November 27, 2013, 10:59:16 AM »
Consumer DSLRs may be dead in 5 years, but if so mirrorless will not fare any better.  If anything, mirrorless would die first as they do not have the pro market to fall back on.  While mirrorless are smaller than a DSLR, a high end cameraphone like the 41MP Lumia 1020 is far smaller than both of them and is one less device to carry.  Phones like the Lumia 1020 will kill mirrorless in the long run.

If this happens, pros will still use DSLRs and mirrorless will have no market left.  No professional in their right mind would use a miniature body with big lenses like the 70-200 f/2.8, the handling is simply unusable.

Thus, I would not worry about DSLR going anywhere! :)
« Last Edit: November 27, 2013, 11:03:02 AM by Ruined »

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #132 on: November 27, 2013, 10:59:16 AM »

Don Haines

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #133 on: November 27, 2013, 11:25:44 AM »
If DSLR's are to be replaced will cell phones, then why is there so much interest in FF and medium format cameras?
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AmbientLight

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #134 on: November 27, 2013, 11:37:35 AM »
Probably the next rant will be about full-frame high MP cell phones with lens adapters replacing anything in their path.  :o

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #134 on: November 27, 2013, 11:37:35 AM »