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Author Topic: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"  (Read 18084 times)

Normalnorm

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #135 on: November 27, 2013, 12:36:53 PM »
If DSLR's are to be replaced will cell phones, then why is there so much interest in FF and medium format cameras?

The interest is largely in the echo chamber of online discussions. The market for DSLRs as it stands is far larger than the enthusiast community online and chatting about the various merits and demerits of cameras.
 
A huge amount of this market is soccer moms  chasing their kids around the house. If a simpler, easier and more convenient alternative presents itself she will use it.
The sales numbers speak for themselves. DSLR sales are in decline albeit slower than P&S but they are not increasing. The costs will have to be recovered at some point and in some way. Layoffs, plant closure, R&D spending cutbacks seem to be the usual recipe for this sort of problem.

Making something risky and disruptive is not usually part of the business plan of most companies however, to their credit, Sony is a lot more adventurous in this regard.
But I would also note that the biggest change to the camera industry was the phone and not a FF or MF camera.

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #135 on: November 27, 2013, 12:36:53 PM »

emag

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #136 on: November 27, 2013, 01:42:25 PM »
Nothing to say about DSLR's.......but I sure wish the term 'soccer mom' would die a quick death.

Arctic Photo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #137 on: November 27, 2013, 02:05:55 PM »
More punditry from the peanut gallery.

Memory lane time: 2008 predictions included that the dSLR would be killed by MILC in five years...and that dSLR video spelled the end of the camcorder.  (Obviously, these pundits don't compare notes before issuing proclamations.)

Paging AvTvM, this thread is just begging for you to tell us how this is more justly-deserved punishment for CaNikon.  ::)
Thanks for stating this. Posts lime the OP's is what made me step out of the forum twice before, now in my third attempt here I see myselt spending less time checking out what's going on and trying to learn more. On the other hand, by this time the ones who are posting this are always the same bunch. Why do they bother? Did the CR-guy do anything bad to them for them to litter his forum.

Arctic Photo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #138 on: November 27, 2013, 02:09:20 PM »
But the point is, Sony have brought out an interesting camera, in much the same way as Minolta always did interesting things (wireless flash and off film E-TTL years before anybody else) it's not going to topple Canon or Nikon, because of breadth of range, quality and sheer fanboy loyalty.

Eventually camera fanboy loyalty will be laughed at in the same way that car manufacturer loyalty is today.

Right now, Sony has the broadest range of digital cameras, not Canon - the only model Sony is missing is a MILC in m4/3rds.
So why do you have 2000 posts on a Canon forum?

Arctic Photo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #139 on: November 27, 2013, 02:20:11 PM »
.

"In my view, Canon are more vulnerable than anyone going forward. It isn’t just that the higher the climb, the bigger the drop at the other side – frankly their DSLR line has become boring from top to bottom."

To paraphrase Forrest Gump, Boring is as boring does.

Provocative article, though largely pointless I suspect.

One disagreement I have with all these predictions, projections and prognostications is they are essentially baseless (as are nearly all the comments relating to them). Data supporting conclusions is rarely cited and even when it is, the sources are hardly credible. Reliable, accurate market information is notoriously hard to come by, but it doesn't stop companies from selling information based on "research" that is questionable at best. The most we might hope from this kind of information is to make a few very generalized conclusions about trends. That's fine fodder for the kind of mostly nonsense flowing out of discussions like this one. And when we leave the history side of the equation, the power of future technology to make changes is almost entirely unknown (although speculation runs in continual overdrive).

My own personal nonsense has been wondering about the viability of high-end DSLR cameras for a while now. Last year I posted here that the 1DX could be the last serious DSLR Canon ever designs and manufactures. I think I allowed as to the possibility of one more iteration, but that may be it.

Lately I've wondered if most of us "enthusiasts" are not kidding ourselves or just satisfying some fetish with our 1DX and 5D3 and expensive L lenses. For me, the 5D3 with good lenses satisfies my need for excellent image quality. But, since I rarely print anything, what's the real point? Most of the stuff I shoot is seen (if at all) only on computer monitors -- so all this IQ stuff I'm striving for may be really pointless to anyone except me. I have pictures from years ago done with a Sony 3.2 megapixel camera that look as good on the screen as a lot of stuff from today's 5D3. Oh, it's comforting to know I can print a 24 x 36 or 30 x 30 anytime I like, but if I never do it, why am I really using a 5D3?

So far, my reason has been speed. I need an accurate AF and shutter actuation to happen before that millisecond when a facial expression changes as I do candid portraits and public photography. Point & shoot cameras are far too slow. Phone cameras are hopeless in this regard (although I've read about one that will show you pictures taken a second or so before you punched the shutter button -- or whatever you do on those things to command picture taking!). Even my otherwise excellent T2i is not fast or accurate enough on a consistent basis. I could get that kind of speed from my old 1VX, but then I had to settle for a chemical process to be converted to digital -- costly, annoying and time-consuming.

My 5D3 also gives me a RAW file, and that has value to me. I don't see the phone cameras delivering a 10000 ISO picture I can take with the 5D3 that can be processed into a decent looking, perhaps even dramatic, image. I could be wrong about that, but I know I like being able to process my RAW files in so many different ways. Yesterday I talked with a woman who had been looking at pictures I took for a group having a film-showing in a coffee house one recent evening. She said she was amazed that such good pictures could be taken in such a dark place. I guess none of the phone camera folks got pictures of that event!

While there are probably not a lot of non-professional photographers who have my need for speed, I'll bet many of the nature photographers do. I recently talked with a man on the observation deck of a flyway who had a $10K lens hanging off the front of his 7D. He uses that to win photography contests where birds are involved. No phone camera ever invented is going to satisfy him.

In the professional world, there are obvious needs for high-end DSLR cameras. Wedding photographers are still surviving by selling printed items. World-class journalism organizations still need the 1DX for things like the Olympics and general sports coverage. That however, may be a declining market. When a major newspaper fires it's photographers and tells its reporters to get pictures with iPhones, something is rotten in you know where. I suspect if there is some future in the pro-level markets, it may be in medium-format equivalent resolution and printed image quality. That may account for rumors we hear about Canon's new MF future.

Again, it's all speculation rising no higher than gossip level as far as I'm concerned.

What I do know is that I have never in nearly 50 years of photography been more satisfied with the quality of photographic equipment I now have to get the pictures I want. I don't know if I would feel that way if I were a 30-year-old, but for me, I could die happy today!
Please don't. Your posts are too appreciated for that.

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #140 on: November 27, 2013, 02:28:00 PM »
Probably the next rant will be about full-frame high MP cell phones with lens adapters replacing anything in their path.  :o


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Arctic Photo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #141 on: November 27, 2013, 02:28:43 PM »
, if only I knew a similar line that worked on girls legs)
'
Well, whatever you do, don't call them pros

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #141 on: November 27, 2013, 02:28:43 PM »

AmbientLight

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #142 on: November 27, 2013, 03:08:02 PM »
Probably the next rant will be about full-frame high MP cell phones with lens adapters replacing anything in their path.  :o


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This is it exactly.

Given current smartphone camera specs (e.g. Nokia Lumia) we can expect a combination such as this to look good on paper. I just don't know how people can be so ignorant to believe that a combination like this will be better than a DSLR, though. The ergonomics of such a combination are terrible, not terrific.

paul13walnut5

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #143 on: November 27, 2013, 03:21:15 PM »
But the point is, Sony have brought out an interesting camera, in much the same way as Minolta always did interesting things (wireless flash and off film E-TTL years before anybody else) it's not going to topple Canon or Nikon, because of breadth of range, quality and sheer fanboy loyalty.

Eventually camera fanboy loyalty will be laughed at in the same way that car manufacturer loyalty is today.

Right now, Sony has the broadest range of digital cameras, not Canon - the only model Sony is missing is a MILC in m4/3rds.
So why do you have 2000 posts on a Canon forum?

Because of breadth and range of the system.  A cars a car a single product. Not a systemic component.  In such a scenario the body becomes expendable. 

This is also where, in paradox, sony have a problem.  The A7 is an immature product at a premium price in a market with entrenched loyalties.  It might be the best interchangable lens sigural cam  yet made, but if you need a ts-e, or want an f2.8 uwa, who ya gonna call?

Aglet

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #144 on: November 27, 2013, 04:20:55 PM »
It might be the best interchangable lens sigural cam  yet made, but if you need a ts-e, or want an f2.8 uwa, who ya gonna call?

Sigma?
Samyang?
Tamron?
Olympus?
Leica?
The big Z?..

I will buy a Samyang 24mm TS in 2014, F-mount tho, it's more versatile if I want to attach it to other things.

I think the MFT gang is still in line for a lot more glass goodies to come.

And for usability, I was playing with a Fuji X-E2 last nite.  TOTALLY usable EVF.  Ergonomics are typical rectangular box but Oly's EM1 has shown what's possible for ergos.  Even the now "old" Fuji X Pro-1 has an excellent hybrid/EVF.  If they tweak that one upward in some ways it'll be a very compelling body.

I think the EVIL MILC is upon us now.  They still can't quite compete in some aspects with traditional flapping mirror boxes, but for most work, they're already close enough.  I didn't get to try it in very low light but supposedly the X-E2 can gain-up enough to see better in the dark with the EVF than using an optical VF on an SLR...

Pi

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #145 on: November 27, 2013, 04:26:02 PM »
It might be the best interchangable lens sigural cam  yet made, but if you need a ts-e, or want an f2.8 uwa, who ya gonna call?

Sigma?
Samyang?
Tamron?
Olympus?
Leica?
The big Z?..

None of the above.

Dylan777

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #146 on: November 27, 2013, 04:54:15 PM »
I'm a big fan of FF mirrorless...however, DSLR still play major role in my photography.

DSLR will die ONLY IF mirrorless can track moving subject as DSLR and lenses need to be smaller to go with compact body.

I do look forward to that day 8)
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gmrza

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #147 on: November 27, 2013, 05:16:28 PM »
I'm a big fan of FF mirrorless...however, DSLR still play major role in my photography.

DSLR will die ONLY IF mirrorless can track moving subject as DSLR and lenses need to be smaller to go with compact body.

I do look forward to that day 8)

I think this is something that gets overlooked.  One of the important capabilities of a DSLR is to perform high framerate shooting with minimum blackout between frames plus the ability to continue to track AF between frames.  This is still difficult currently for a mirrorless system to do because the sensor is also acting as the view finder.  I have no doubt that over time this issue will be resolved.  How long that takes may be academic, because the form factor of higher end cameras is dictated more by ergonomics (coupled with optics).  Even if you could remove the mirror, and deliver everything a 1Dx can, most users of that kind of camera would still want the ergonomics that that form factor provides.  You only need to consider the number of 5D series users who add vertical grips to improve the ergonomics of their cameras (battery life is a secondary consideration for many users).
With the exception of Leica nobody has really had any success in bringing the sensor very close to the flange.  As the incident angle of the light reaching the sensor becomes more oblique, it becomes more and more difficult to capture the light on a digital sensor - hence why Canon tends to "fiddle" with the ISO when you use a f/1.2 lens.  That problem will probably dictate flange distance from the focal plane for longer than the presence of a mirror box will.
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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #147 on: November 27, 2013, 05:16:28 PM »

paul13walnut5

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #148 on: November 27, 2013, 05:24:53 PM »
Gotta say the new oly om-d was very nice to use, especially with a grip. 
But I have 11 ef mount lenses, 3 eos bodies, 2 ex flashguns..

The a7 may well be great, but I'm sure canon will be along with something close or better, soon.

I can't afford to blow with the wind, or run multiple systems.  Where I need something and I can't buy canon I buy something else (tokina f2.8 uwa is a requirement for vidro and a product unique to tokina in aps-c, my gopros are pretty much market leaders, canon don't make comparable, my sennheiser mics etc) but for my purposes the a7 isn't a game changer.  The 7d was (first PAL switchable video dslr, first DSLR with full manual video exposure, the required 5d2 firmware came after I bought my 7d) the c100 / Ninja Atomos 2 combo may be.  The Sachtler ace is (at pricepoint at least)

Long term 135 format DSLR users have never really engaged in aps-c or rebel bashing.  Since the 5d2 but particularly the 6d came out there seems to be a lot of folks who are queing up to kick aps-c.

Maybe the price of the 6d is low enough to let the riff-raff into the 135 format dslr club.
A bit like social climbers or lottery millionaires, they might dress the part but reveal their lack of etiquette, lack of manners, lack of class the second they open their mouth "i don't know why everybody doesn't drive a mercedes" type of thing.

APS-C is dead.
Long live APS-C.

Enjoy the school sportsday.




neuroanatomist

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #149 on: November 27, 2013, 05:55:42 PM »
The sales numbers speak for themselves. DSLR sales are in decline albeit slower than P&S but they are not increasing.

Yes, they do speak for themselves.  But it seems you don't understand what they're saying, at least as far as Canon is concerned.

"In decline?"  Hmmm....

Quote from: Reuters
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's Canon Corp (7751.T) cut its operating profit outlook for the second quarter in a row, below analysts' estimates, warning that sales of its signature high-end cameras will fall this year for the first time since their launch in 2003.

The world's largest camera maker said it now sees global economic gloom squeezing sales of its digital interchangeable-lens cameras to 8 million through December from 8.2 million last year. Demand from camera buffs will stay weak in Europe, and fail to recover as quickly in China as Canon had expected.

So...dSLR sales have risen steadily for the past 10 years, and now for the first time, Canon is predicting a drop (note: predicting means it hasn't happened yet).  That predicted drop is just 2.5%, and is occurring in the midst of a global economic downturn. 

Hey, Chicken Little - let's wait just a bit before we start predicting sky-falling doom, it might just be a passing rain cloud.
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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #149 on: November 27, 2013, 05:55:42 PM »