October 24, 2014, 08:04:34 PM

Author Topic: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"  (Read 23770 times)

Don Haines

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #150 on: November 27, 2013, 06:51:33 PM »
Gotta say the new oly om-d was very nice to use, especially with a grip. 
But I have 11 ef mount lenses, 3 eos bodies, 2 ex flashguns..

The a7 may well be great, but I'm sure canon will be along with something close or better, soon.

I can't afford to blow with the wind, or run multiple systems.  Where I need something and I can't buy canon I buy something else (tokina f2.8 uwa is a requirement for vidro and a product unique to tokina in aps-c, my gopros are pretty much market leaders, canon don't make comparable, my sennheiser mics etc) but for my purposes the a7 isn't a game changer.  The 7d was (first PAL switchable video dslr, first DSLR with full manual video exposure, the required 5d2 firmware came after I bought my 7d) the c100 / Ninja Atomos 2 combo may be.  The Sachtler ace is (at pricepoint at least)

Long term 135 format DSLR users have never really engaged in aps-c or rebel bashing.  Since the 5d2 but particularly the 6d came out there seems to be a lot of folks who are queing up to kick aps-c.

Maybe the price of the 6d is low enough to let the riff-raff into the 135 format dslr club.
A bit like social climbers or lottery millionaires, they might dress the part but reveal their lack of etiquette, lack of manners, lack of class the second they open their mouth "i don't know why everybody doesn't drive a mercedes" type of thing.

APS-C is dead.
Long live APS-C.

Enjoy the school sportsday.
$45 gets you an adaptor so you can mount that long L-glass on a micro 4/3 body....

I like the Oly Om-d too, but no way am I going to jump shift. I like the size and ergonomics of the Canon cameras better. I look at the Oly as a hint of what is to come...  The canon dual-pixel cameras "should" focus better and the canon lens selection is better.

Canon has most of the pieces needed to make a high end mirror less camera, all that is missing is a quality EVF. One could show up at any time.... I doubt it would be the 7D2, but if it were, I would not be shocked...
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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #150 on: November 27, 2013, 06:51:33 PM »

eml58

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #151 on: November 27, 2013, 07:02:57 PM »
On a recent Safari trip to Tanzania I was set up near the base of a Tree waiting for a Leopard to come down, been there 2 hours.

2 Car loads of People came by, spent 5 minutes taking mostly Photos of my Rig & asking if I was a Pro Photographer (I had the 200-400 & 600 set up), then drove on (they seemed confused that the Guy with all the gear, Me, was no one, the guy with the D3 & 80-400 all beaten up, was Greg DeToit, who just won Wildlife Photographer of the Year & so very definitely a consummate Pro), every single person in each of the 2 vehicles (I think around 10 People total) was taking Images with either an iPad or a Phone, not a dslr in the bunch.

Considering each person must have paid in excess of 20k to get to this spot, I was gob smacked to think none of these people thought the cost of an dslr was important enough to outlay on to get the possibility of quality Images.

Strangely enough, this isn't unusual to see, most people do these trips just to be here, a few memento Images for the Kids & Grand Kids seems to be just fine. As a Keen Photographer I can't quite get it, but they outnumber me, so maybe I'm the one that's out of sync, at least I have Greg for Company, neither of us could quite work it all out.
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Arctic Photo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #152 on: November 28, 2013, 01:08:06 AM »
But the point is, Sony have brought out an interesting camera, in much the same way as Minolta always did interesting things (wireless flash and off film E-TTL years before anybody else) it's not going to topple Canon or Nikon, because of breadth of range, quality and sheer fanboy loyalty.

Eventually camera fanboy loyalty will be laughed at in the same way that car manufacturer loyalty is today.

Right now, Sony has the broadest range of digital cameras, not Canon - the only model Sony is missing is a MILC in m4/3rds.
So why do you have 2000 posts on a Canon forum?

Because of breadth and range of the system.  A cars a car a single product. Not a systemic component.  In such a scenario the body becomes expendable. 

This is also where, in paradox, sony have a problem.  The A7 is an immature product at a premium price in a market with entrenched loyalties.  It might be the best interchangable lens sigural cam  yet made, but if you need a ts-e, or want an f2.8 uwa, who ya gonna call?
Paul, I wasn't aiming at you. We need balanced views here and input on other brands and technologies. But some posters seem to only turn against Canon.

CarlTN

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #153 on: November 28, 2013, 01:53:44 AM »
On a recent Safari trip to Tanzania I was set up near the base of a Tree waiting for a Leopard to come down, been there 2 hours.

2 Car loads of People came by, spent 5 minutes taking mostly Photos of my Rig & asking if I was a Pro Photographer (I had the 200-400 & 600 set up), then drove on (they seemed confused that the Guy with all the gear, Me, was no one, the guy with the D3 & 80-400 all beaten up, was Greg DeToit, who just won Wildlife Photographer of the Year & so very definitely a consummate Pro), every single person in each of the 2 vehicles (I think around 10 People total) was taking Images with either an iPad or a Phone, not a dslr in the bunch.

Considering each person must have paid in excess of 20k to get to this spot, I was gob smacked to think none of these people thought the cost of an dslr was important enough to outlay on to get the possibility of quality Images.

Strangely enough, this isn't unusual to see, most people do these trips just to be here, a few memento Images for the Kids & Grand Kids seems to be just fine. As a Keen Photographer I can't quite get it, but they outnumber me, so maybe I'm the one that's out of sync, at least I have Greg for Company, neither of us could quite work it all out.

I'm not surprised at all.  People in general, do not have an artistic eye, or an appreciation for what photography is.  And let's face it, it cost a lot to go on safari, so it's a lot of people who think of photographers as in the same class as the waiters back at their hotel.  You're just another working class grunt to them.  What's funny is you, eml58, are also kind of one of them (a wealthy traveler)!  And trust me, you don't want to see what happens to $15k worth of photographic equipment in the hands of someone who doesn't appreciate its value.  I've seen it first hand, and heard the clanking of tripod against tripod, lens against lens, as they were all piled into a heap in the back of an SUV, like they were dirty garden shovels!  I cringe typing about it!!

CarlTN

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #154 on: November 28, 2013, 01:55:02 AM »
Nothing to say about DSLR's.......but I sure wish the term 'soccer mom' would die a quick death.

What else would you call them?

CarlTN

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Re: Consumer DSLRs “dead in 5 years”
« Reply #155 on: November 28, 2013, 01:57:33 AM »
It might be the best interchangable lens sigural cam  yet made, but if you need a ts-e, or want an f2.8 uwa, who ya gonna call?

Sigma?
Samyang?
Tamron?
Olympus?
Leica?
The big Z?..

I will buy a Samyang 24mm TS in 2014, F-mount tho, it's more versatile if I want to attach it to other things.

I think the MFT gang is still in line for a lot more glass goodies to come.

And for usability, I was playing with a Fuji X-E2 last nite.  TOTALLY usable EVF.  Ergonomics are typical rectangular box but Oly's EM1 has shown what's possible for ergos.  Even the now "old" Fuji X Pro-1 has an excellent hybrid/EVF.  If they tweak that one upward in some ways it'll be a very compelling body.

I think the EVIL MILC is upon us now.  They still can't quite compete in some aspects with traditional flapping mirror boxes, but for most work, they're already close enough.  I didn't get to try it in very low light but supposedly the X-E2 can gain-up enough to see better in the dark with the EVF than using an optical VF on an SLR...

Is the EVF in the Fuji better than Sony's A77?  I looked thru one of those at Best Buy, and it kind of sucked.

CarlTN

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #156 on: November 28, 2013, 02:04:27 AM »
Probably the next rant will be about full-frame high MP cell phones with lens adapters replacing anything in their path.  :o

What if in the future, smartphones' LCD screen somehow can double as the imaging sensor?  You could have a 7 inch diagonal sensor that is 50 trillion gigapixels...that can shoot at 20,000 fps, since there would only be an electronic shutter.  Of course it might require a pretty fast processor and memory card...Also might take several years to view each whole image at full size, just scrolling it over a computer monitor...:P

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #156 on: November 28, 2013, 02:04:27 AM »

Pandypix

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #157 on: November 28, 2013, 04:37:40 AM »
 
Probably the next rant will be about full-frame high MP cell phones with lens adapters replacing anything in their path.  :o

What if in the future, smartphones' LCD screen somehow can double as the imaging sensor?  You could have a 7 inch diagonal sensor that is 50 trillion gigapixels...that can shoot at 20,000 fps, since there would only be an electronic shutter.  Of course it might require a pretty fast processor and memory card...Also might take several years to view each whole image at full size, just scrolling it over a computer monitor...:P

And my hubby will be grumping his cell phone battery is dead again :)
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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #158 on: December 11, 2013, 10:44:29 AM »
This thread is VERY pessimistic. The photography industry has re-invented itself a number of times and the same will happen again. The vast majority of people are point & shoot photographers that in the past would have bought low end film cameras like APS or throw away cameras. When digital arrived they bought lower end digital compacts only a small number moved to SLRs and then DSLRs.
The global population is 7.1BN people and last years 16.5M DSLRs & CSC were purchased, that will decline to around 15M in 2013 but thats still 3M higher than 2008. In 2008 over 100M compact cameras were sold that number is now around 75M and falling as smart phones replace them.
Thing is no matter how good smart phones become for the foreseable future they are not going to replace DSLRs among the hobbiest photographer who values quality images. Fact is I can see the difference on my ipad retina even between images shot on my Canon 7d and my Canon 6d using the same L lenses, if as I did this week shoot the same scene on my iphone 5S the difference in quality is huge.
The lens of the iphone 5S is rubbish and thats a big improvement over the iphone 4 and I disagree about software once in your computer you can do anything with DSLR photographs.
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CarlTN

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #159 on: December 15, 2013, 05:35:55 AM »
This thread is VERY pessimistic. The photography industry has re-invented itself a number of times and the same will happen again. The vast majority of people are point & shoot photographers that in the past would have bought low end film cameras like APS or throw away cameras. When digital arrived they bought lower end digital compacts only a small number moved to SLRs and then DSLRs.
The global population is 7.1BN people and last years 16.5M DSLRs & CSC were purchased, that will decline to around 15M in 2013 but thats still 3M higher than 2008. In 2008 over 100M compact cameras were sold that number is now around 75M and falling as smart phones replace them.
Thing is no matter how good smart phones become for the foreseable future they are not going to replace DSLRs among the hobbiest photographer who values quality images. Fact is I can see the difference on my ipad retina even between images shot on my Canon 7d and my Canon 6d using the same L lenses, if as I did this week shoot the same scene on my iphone 5S the difference in quality is huge.
The lens of the iphone 5S is rubbish and thats a big improvement over the iphone 4 and I disagree about software once in your computer you can do anything with DSLR photographs.

The most important difference is sensor size, regarding camera phones.  Lenses are important too, though.  I just don't see either DSLR's or even compact cameras getting replaced by anything else.  All that will happen is there will be fewer models of compact camera, and eventually fewer models at various price points, for DSLR's.  Sensors will get larger, as the cost to build them gets less.  The compact cameras of tomorrow will have larger sensors than they do now...and the smartphones of tomorrow will get 1/1.7 size or larger sensors...perhaps.  Of course they will have much larger lenses that retract.  But the smartphones will lack the ergonomics and form factor of a compact camera, because they're mainly designed for teenagers to flick their fingers across and text each other...while driving!  You don't need a quality camera to take a "selfie" to show off your indifference for human life while driving...

Roo

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #160 on: December 20, 2013, 02:34:14 AM »
Strangely enough, this isn't unusual to see, most people do these trips just to be here, a few memento Images for the Kids & Grand Kids seems to be just fine. As a Keen Photographer I can't quite get it, but they outnumber me, so maybe I'm the one that's out of sync, at least I have Greg for Company, neither of us could quite work it all out.

It is refreshing to see that people are going along to enjoy what they see rather than spending their lives through a lens.  I just wish more people did that at concerts :D

Back on topic - I thought this was really funny :D
http://newcameranews.com/2013/12/04/mirrorless-camera-enthusiasts-gather-fifth-annual-dslr-end-days-dslreod5/
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Valvebounce

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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #161 on: December 20, 2013, 05:15:44 AM »
Hi Roo
Thanks for that, nice to have a little chuckle from time to time.  ;D

Cheers Graham.


It is refreshing to see that people are going along to enjoy what they see rather than spending their lives through a lens.  I just wish more people did that at concerts :D

Back on topic - I thought this was really funny :D
http://newcameranews.com/2013/12/04/mirrorless-camera-enthusiasts-gather-fifth-annual-dslr-end-days-dslreod5/
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20D, BG-E2N, 17-85mm, 50mm are pre loved. :)
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Re: Consumer DSLRs "dead in 5 years"
« Reply #161 on: December 20, 2013, 05:15:44 AM »