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Author Topic: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls  (Read 21177 times)

WPJ

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2013, 12:00:23 PM »
i saw tons of people buy DSLR in the last few years.
Most used as overpriced P&S because they did not know what SLR's are capable or did not have interest in learning or did not have time. 
Given that many P&S and smartphone cameras have "effects"to get the desired effect they realized that they do not need no longer needed a DSLR to shoot, download and edit.

i have a friend who bought a 600D because he liked my pictures.
 
now he is complaining that everything is "so unsharp" with his DSLR when he takes pictures for his ebay auctions.

i (tried to) teach him about aperture but he still doesn´t really gets why, with his 190 euro P&S everything was sharp and now his pictures are "unsharp". :)

"there must be a way this DSLR makes sharp photos from back to front without all this raising ISO because of smaller aperture stuff ... or buying a speedlight??"

DOF is some strange concept for people who only shoot with a P&S before.  ;)

he also complains that his images don´t show as much details as mine. "you are sure this camera is not broken? your camera makes much better images".
his problem is, when he does portraits the head only occupies 1/6 of the frame and then he crops like mad. told him a few times to get closer... he makes the same errors again and again.

some people really don´t need a DSLR.
he likes my macro and portrait shots but even after 16 month he still takes pictures in P mode.
and he wonders that with the "expensive" DSLR his images doesn´t look much better then with his 190 euro P&S. for him light is light..... you only need enough. :)

i still try to teach him a bit.... but it´s hard work.

as I see your explanation your trying to do good and tech him how to use it but he doesn't care, just tell him to out it on the green square and I bet he will be happier

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #30 on: November 09, 2013, 12:00:23 PM »

AvTvM

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #31 on: November 09, 2013, 12:07:02 PM »

Here we go again, folks who predict the demise of DSLRs and the triumph of MILCs. People have been saying this for years since the appearance of the first MILC... Yet, this has not been borne out by actual shipment numbers. In N. America and Europe, for every MILC sold in 2013, 9 to 10 DSLRs are sold. Yes, that is how poorly received MILCs are.

Of course not many wanted to buy yesterdays shitty mirrorless. Dwarf-sensored nikon 1? Slow as molasses eos-m? Retro styled fujis? mft-sensored stuff? Poor EVFs? Give me a break!

It will change as soon as really good ff mirrorless arrives. Sony A7/R are the first inkling. Even better stuff will follow. Dslrs will be gone. Like all those german rangefinders went out the door in the 70s when good SLRs became available from the japanese. This time round it might be korea and taiwan doing it to the japanese. Hehe!

neuroanatomist

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #32 on: November 09, 2013, 12:14:49 PM »
It will change as soon as really good ff mirrorless arrives. Sony A7/R are the first inkling. Even better stuff will follow. Dslrs will be gone. Like all those german rangefinders went out the door in the 70s when good SLRs became available from the japanese.

You might be half right. 'Good' won't cut it...what's needed is good and cheap.  That's what was behind the success of SLRs - getting them into the hands of 'the masses'. Those folks are buying entry level dSLRs, and until mirrorless offers similar performance in a similar price range (<$800), mirrorless will remain a niche market.
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David Hull

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #33 on: November 09, 2013, 12:38:23 PM »
By the numbers:

  • Nikon reported a 1H-FY13 (Mar-Aug, 2013) drop in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓28.5%
  • Canon reported a 2Q13 and 3Q13 (Apr-Sep, 2013) drops in y/y unit sales of dSLRs of ↓4% and ↓3%, respectively

So for a similar 6-month period, Nikon had an 8-fold greater drop in unit sales compared to Canon.  Nikon's already-lower dSLR market share is dropping fast...

Actually, according to this article, the situation is a bit different:

Quote
Canon has sold 23% less cameras than a year earlier, Nikon is down 18.2%, and Sony and Fujifilm are each off about 35%.

I would argue that a year-to-year comparison is more reliable than a quarter-to-quarter one.

The quote you excerpted refers to "cameras" which includes both dSLRs and P&S units.  I'll grant that it's a bit ambiguous in the linked article, and that's either bad writing or quite possibly intentional.   I was referring to dSLRs only, using data from Canon's and Nikon's own quarterly financial presentations.

Also, I compared a 6-month block of time with the same 6-month block from the previous year (which is what y/y means - year-to-year).   I doubt looking at a full year would have made a difference in the trend, and doing so is more difficult because Canon and Nikon use offset fiscal years.  If you'd like to comb through their Investor Relations pages and present full year data for dSLRs, I'd be interested in your findings.

Yes, I agree that it's ambiguous. The point of the article, however, seems to me that it's the steep decline in interchangeable-lens cameras, as opposed to a well known decline of P&S and the likes.

The problem with comparing semesters is that the data can be confused by recent product releases, holidays, festivities, etc. This is why I find more reliable to do such calculations based on a whole year.
I think that the sales of DSLR's has been a bit of a bubble.  The world went digital and sales have tracked the trend of better, faster, cheaper (in some cases) with a lot of people moving into digital.  Now though, the equipment has become "good enough" and the market has become saturated.  Everyone who wants one has one of some sort and now all the manufacturers are doing is servicing a saturated market.  There is nothing that I am really dissatisfied about with my 5DIII and the lenses I have.  I can’t really think of a really compelling feature that they could build into a 5DIV that would make me want to immediately run out and upgrade.  I think there is a lot of that sentiment out there. 

AvTvM

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #34 on: November 09, 2013, 02:18:00 PM »
You might be half right. 'Good' won't cut it...what's needed is good and cheap.  That's what was behind the success of SLRs - getting them into the hands of 'the masses'. Those folks are buying entry level dSLRs, and until mirrorless offers similar performance in a similar price range (<$800), mirrorless will remain a niche market.

absolutely. Remember 2003? Canon? "Digital Rebel" @ USD/€  999,- ? First "good enough" and truly affordable DSLR. Huge success, DSLRs became ubiquituos.

10 yeras later. 2013. Time for a FF mirrorless "digital rebel". Although, even then the rush will not be as big this time. In 2003 those smartphones did not take very good stills. Not to mention halfway-decent video. In one small package. ;-)

aznable

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #35 on: November 09, 2013, 05:26:25 PM »

Of course not many wanted to buy yesterdays shitty mirrorless. Dwarf-sensored nikon 1? Slow as molasses eos-m? Retro styled fujis? mft-sensored stuff? Poor EVFs? Give me a break!

It will change as soon as really good ff mirrorless arrives. Sony A7/R are the first inkling. Even better stuff will follow. Dslrs will be gone. Like all those german rangefinders went out the door in the 70s when good SLRs became available from the japanese. This time round it might be korea and taiwan doing it to the japanese. Hehe!

and in the meanwhile nikon may die and you will be here bashing canon and supporting who... sony, pentax, Samsung? lol
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AvTvM

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2013, 05:58:38 PM »

and in the meanwhile nikon may die and you will be here bashing canon and supporting who... sony, pentax, Samsung? lol

I am just observing the market. And looking out for my next camera after my 7d. I still like it.  And it'll soon have been my last DSLR. Bye bye mirror slap. :-)




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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #36 on: November 09, 2013, 05:58:38 PM »

Woody

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #37 on: November 09, 2013, 06:43:21 PM »
I am just observing the market. And looking out for my next camera after my 7d. I still like it.  And it'll soon have been my last DSLR. Bye bye mirror slap. :-)

I tried to leave the mirror slap 1.5 years ago. Got myself an OMD EM5. Used it for a year. Took it for a trip but hated the shooting experience so much the camera stayed in my bag most of the time even though it was always with me. Hated the EVF. Hated the ergonomics. Sold the camera and plunged headlog back into the world of DSLRs.

AvTvM

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #38 on: November 09, 2013, 06:56:31 PM »
I tried to leave the mirror slap 1.5 years ago. Got myself an OMD EM5. Used it for a year. Took it for a trip but hated the shooting experience so much the camera stayed in my bag most of the time even though it was always with me. Hated the EVF. Hated the ergonomics. Sold the camera and plunged headlog back into the world of DSLRs.

I hear you. We are almost there. One more push ... Better EVF, better AF. Soon.

Bennymiata

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2013, 07:56:43 PM »
I think mirrorless is just a flash in the pan.

Why would you pay twice the price for a mirrorless camera than an equivalent DSLR?
I think a lot of people like the idea of a smaller camera, but when it comes to shelling out YOUR money, they look like a bad and overpriced piece of dead technology.
Why are mirrorless cameras so expensive in comparison to DSLR's?
They should be half the price, especially considering their poor viewfinders (if they have one at all), poor ergonomics (it's hard to keep a camera still when it's being held at arm's length) and expensive lenses.

I think Canon got it right with the SL1 (100D). As soon as the price comes down, it will mean a big hit to the sales of EVF cameras.

Lichtgestalt

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2013, 07:59:17 PM »
and in the meanwhile nikon may die and you will be here bashing canon and supporting who... sony, pentax, Samsung? lol

Quote from: AvTvM
  And it'll soon have been my last DSLR. Bye bye mirror slap. :-)

makes you wonder what he will do all day when he can´t complain about canon.  ;)

don´t know why people think they have to tell the world they will switch to mirrorless/sony/nikon whatever.... as if i (or anyone who reads it) cares.  ::)

attention... attention im switching to mirrorless...!! inform the press. ;)
« Last Edit: November 09, 2013, 08:05:05 PM by Lichtgestalt »

ajfotofilmagem

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2013, 08:26:57 PM »
I think mirrorless is just a flash in the pan.

Why would you pay twice the price for a mirrorless camera than an equivalent DSLR?
I think a lot of people like the idea of a smaller camera, but when it comes to shelling out YOUR money, they look like a bad and overpriced piece of dead technology.
Why are mirrorless cameras so expensive in comparison to DSLR's?
They should be half the price, especially considering their poor viewfinders (if they have one at all), poor ergonomics (it's hard to keep a camera still when it's being held at arm's length) and expensive lenses.

I think Canon got it right with the SL1 (100D). As soon as the price comes down, it will mean a big hit to the sales of EVF cameras.
Yes, SL1 was a huge gamble for Canon. It is not revolutionary, but it is the best in its category. On the other hand, Nikon shot himself in the foot with the odd mirrorles "J1" and its tiny sensor. When the sensor Canon 70D also arrive in M2 will be a more interesting option than the Sony NEX leader.

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2013, 03:35:37 AM »

I think Canon got it right with the SL1 (100D). As soon as the price comes down, it will mean a big hit to the sales of EVF cameras.

+1, they're very popular here in the UK.

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #42 on: November 10, 2013, 03:35:37 AM »

Lichtgestalt

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #43 on: November 10, 2013, 06:12:30 AM »
to be honest.... personally i don´t care about the SL1.

it´s not small enough to be pocketable (my sony RX100 is the maximum size in that regard for me).

and when it´s not small enough to be pocketable, then i prefer a camera that feels good in my (big) hands.

so i don´t need smaller cameras but i would not mind lighter cameras.
thought i prefer pentaprisms over pentamirrors and magnesium bodys.
so i don´t know how much lighter they can make DSLR´s.


AvTvM

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #44 on: November 10, 2013, 09:02:19 AM »
I think mirrorless is just a flash in the pan.
...
I think Canon got it right with the SL1 (100D). As soon as the price comes down, it will mean a big hit to the sales of EVF cameras.
oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.
And the new SL-1 in white will quelch any desire for a FF mirrorless camera for good. 
Way to go Canon!   
 ;D

« Last Edit: November 10, 2013, 09:05:33 AM by AvTvM »

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #44 on: November 10, 2013, 09:02:19 AM »