August 23, 2014, 06:00:35 AM

Author Topic: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls  (Read 7674 times)

Sporgon

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #45 on: November 10, 2013, 09:22:19 AM »

oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.
And the new SL-1 in white will quelch any desire for a FF mirrorless camera for good. 
Way to go Canon!   
 ;D



I'd put my money on Canon's market research before your  ;)

neuroanatomist

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #46 on: November 10, 2013, 09:24:35 AM »
oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.

No, you're wrong.  Nikon will dominate with the Df.   ::)  ::)  ::)
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AvTvM

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #47 on: November 10, 2013, 09:34:30 AM »
oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.

No, you're wrong.  Nikon will dominate with the Df.   ::)  ::)  ::)

hehe! SL-1 vs. Df will duke it out.

Looking at these "fabulous" DSLRs and the equally fabulous mirrorless alternatives available, it shoukd not come as a surprise, that potential buyers simply refuse to buy. Even consumers and prosumers have learned and are smart enough to not waste their money on cameras like the Df or SL1 but rather sit back and wait just a little longer, until decent (FF) mirrorless cameras become available at affordable prices. Including a "mirrorless digital rebel" (FF) at USD/€ 999.

If the Sony A7 will not sell well this may already happen in Q1/Q2 of 2014. :-)

ajfotofilmagem

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #48 on: November 10, 2013, 09:47:06 AM »
New Nikon DF (old?) has a restricted target purchaser, unlike Canon SL1. If Canon makes a SL2 with 70D sensor will be an even greater success for the multitude of video. And the Nikon DF ...

Woody

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #49 on: November 10, 2013, 09:54:12 AM »
If the Sony A7 will not sell well this may already happen in Q1/Q2 of 2014. :-)

Well, let's wait and see... I am willing to bet sales of A7 won't come close to D800/5D3/D610/6D/

Lichtgestalt

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #50 on: November 10, 2013, 12:01:13 PM »

oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.
And the new SL-1 in white will quelch any desire for a FF mirrorless camera for good. 
Way to go Canon!   
 ;D



I'd put my money on Canon's market research before your  ;)

+1000

Chuck Alaimo

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #51 on: November 10, 2013, 01:19:44 PM »
Unfortunately, exact numbers are either not broken down in enough detail and/or all over the place, since press realeases and articles alike are obsure and/or poorly written.

The big picture is clear:

* consumers
not buying much. Money is tight, they got smartüphones and most of the households got comapct cameras and often a low-end DSLR as well. Most consumers have smartened up sufficently to realize their DSLR+kit lens sit in the closet most of the time and their smartphones deliver good enough IQ. Market saturated - not only compacts, but also more-of the-same-and-only-marginally-better, iterative low-end DLSRs. All manufacturers similarly affected. Except for a few moving up into enthusiast segment, will generally not return to buy another dwarf-sensor compact or DSLRs in the future.

* prosumer/enthusiast
smartened up and come to realize those boxy-clunky mirrorslappers are nearing end of shelf live. Waiting for "the right"mirrorless camera at affordable price without having to sacrifice much in speed/performance (AF) and ergonomics (esp. OVF vs. EVF) compared to their current DSLRs. Ideally coming from their current manufacturer to increase chances, some lenses will continue to work quite well (via adapter) and not having to learn a new user interface. They are sitting on the fence and also don't buy as many lenses since future of systems is open.
Sony's A7/R are just about "attractive enough" to capture some in that group. Or may settle for mfT or Fuji X camera. Will start buying FF mirrorless, once really good sub USD/€ 2000 offerings come. And then also replace their lens parks over time to native mirrorless lenses with shorter flange distance. Whoever of the 3 - Canon, Nikon, Sony gets there first, will take market leadership.   

* pro
economy is tight. Minimize capex. Overall very conservative market segment. Will buy what is absolutely needed from CaNikon. Old farts and those shooting  long lenses / fast action will stick with DSLRs for at least 2 more rounds [5D Mk. V and Nikon D6 likely to be "final models"].  Will eventually also move to mirrorless, but over a longer period of time ... 5 years+   


Canon and Nikon are looking at a quickly closing "launch window" for mirrorless FF. If they don't get it done in 2014, they'll be really really hard hit. Nikon will go under first. But Canon is not safe either, if they bungle it.

Wow I'd say that's overly sure for pure speculation.  I agree on the Consumer side, but the Pro, enthusiast, prosumer market - I disagree!  Mirrorless may or may not take off.  Mirrorless may or may not sell side by side DSLR's.  Mirrorless may or may not replace DSLR's.  Mirrorless may or may not be remembered as a good idea went bad.

I's say it's more relative to market saturation and less $$$ being spent trying to create a revolutionary product because the overall economy is sliding - and sorry, there's nothing really revolutionary with mirrorless - People not buying new products especially in the prosumer enthusiast area are buying because its a shiney new thing - not because of needs.  With a tight economy, who that is taking great shots with their 2 year old rebel is gonna swap and spend 1k on something that really just doesn't show the big bang wow whistle.  The new sony's - they may be the wow now, but, have fun with those adaptors and lack of AF.  Or, have fun waiting for sony to make a few dedicated lenses then forget about the whole thing in favor of something else.

As to pro market - the big rush for the mk3 and the 1dx is done, its kind of now the hobby crowd or the slowert o upgrade crowd on those bodies ...and many of those folks may end up just snagging a 6d.  I do agree that the pro market will be more conservative - but to say all of us are just waiting around for the mirrorless replacement cycle to begin I think is just off.  As many have pointed out --- the major benefit to mirroless is size and weight, major downfall is that once you need ranges past 135mm, your stuck with an adaptor and a large heavy lens which is very awkward on a small body.  It's gonna take a hell of a lot of R&D money to get past that (creating smaller optical systems that match the quality of current high end glass, and creating in a way that reduces size and weight and keeping it all weathersealed?????)- which means longer telephoto lenses will be extremely expensive!!!!  And speaking of money, it will also take a ton of money to get EVF tech up to pro level - finding a way to reduce the battery drain, or there's more R&D...designing higher capacity batteries to deal with the increased energy need --- that alone will be tough, then you have the low light problem, the latency problem, and yeah, the how to make everything not look like puke when viewing through an EVF....

I will agree that you think mirrorless is the way, but many are way less sold on the idea, and given all the market forecasts - it does seem like the market agrees, mirrorless is currently losing ground because most of those looking for mirrorless are going to be in the ---now why would buy that when i can just use my cell phone crowd...
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Chuck Alaimo

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #52 on: November 10, 2013, 01:43:23 PM »
oh yes! Canon will absolutely dominate "the future of photography" with the SL-1.

No, you're wrong.  Nikon will dominate with the Df.   ::)  ::)  ::)

hehe! SL-1 vs. Df will duke it out.

Looking at these "fabulous" DSLRs and the equally fabulous mirrorless alternatives available, it shoukd not come as a surprise, that potential buyers simply refuse to buy. Even consumers and prosumers have learned and are smart enough to not waste their money on cameras like the Df or SL1 but rather sit back and wait just a little longer, until decent (FF) mirrorless cameras become available at affordable prices. Including a "mirrorless digital rebel" (FF) at USD/€ 999.

If the Sony A7 will not sell well this may already happen in Q1/Q2 of 2014. :-)


To improve upon the current tech in mirrorless, you need R&D money and lots of it - and unless the big 2 (canon and Nikon) believe as much as you do that mirrorless is the way of the future so much that they are willing to take HUGE losses, your dream of "decent (FF) mirrorless cameras become available at affordable prices. Including a "mirrorless digital rebel" (FF) at USD/€ 999." just won't happen.  I don't think betting on Sony is a winning bet.  Sony has no real direction in this market - the camera world is a side project to all the other stuff sony does.  So for mirrorless to replace the existing market ---it will mean canon and nikon making it happen.

My last mirrorless prediction ----

I really think the only hope for mirrorless in the pro/semipro/prosumer/enthusiast world is if they can engineer a way to have the lens mount be the same as we currently have.  Yes, this means the size, form factor and weight will stay the same as current slr's.  But, I have not heard anything stating that this is how it will go, so we're left with a new system and a new mount.  No pro wants to fiddle with adaptor rings.   And unless there is a startlingly clear mind blowing oh my god improvement in IQ, what pro/semipro/prosumer/enthusiast is going to commit to a path of selling off their $10,000 worth of glass in order to buy $15,000 worth of mirrorless glass? 

Again, if we can use our current lens line up with a mirrorless system, no adaptor needed, native mount, same quality...it has a chance...  but again, that isn't the path mirrorless seems to be taking.  New system, new mount, new glass = DOA if you ask me.. the only way making such a huge product shift can or will happen is if the world economy goes from recessed to boom, and I mean big boom because right now there is really nothing earth shattering or groundbreaking to mirrorless ---seems like a big PITA for really no gain
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preppyak

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #53 on: November 10, 2013, 01:54:52 PM »
And unless there is a startlingly clear mind blowing oh my god improvement in IQ, what pro/semipro/prosumer/enthusiast is going to commit to a path of selling off their $10,000 worth of glass in order to buy $15,000 worth of mirrorless glass? 

Again, if we can use our current lens line up with a mirrorless system, no adaptor needed, native mount, same quality...it has a chance... 
And to further back up this point, Sony has been selling E-mount cameras for 3.5 years; meaning they've been developing the system even longer. They STILL don't have a full pro lens lineup, and without Sigma and Zeiss, I'm not sure they'd even have a semi-pro set of options. If you aren't willing to manual focus, they certaintly don't have a range of lenses that can match the L system. Is there even a tele option beyond 200mm?

moreorless

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Re: Nikon drops sales forecast as high-end camera market stalls
« Reply #54 on: November 11, 2013, 11:41:57 AM »
Personally I think a small FF mirrorless(rather than a large one with DSLR form factor and mount but no mirror) is always likely to be a limated market simply because of the lens sizes involved(large AF lenses designed for digital as well not small manual film rangefinder lenses) and FF users demands for advanced controls. Sony isn't the only manufacturer with the ability to go after this market, its the only manufacturer desperate enough to given the failiure of its FF DSLR/SLT cameras.

The net is a very poor guide to actual sales here as your dealing with a very small but very vocal group. Just look at the Fuji X system, via net hype they should be earning massive sales yet there still only a tiny bit player in the mirrorless market as a whole, behind even Canon with one rushed body and three lenses.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2013, 11:43:40 AM by moreorless »