Nikon D800 at 36mp, Will Canon Respond?

[kubelik]

Based on Moore's Law

Moore's law does not apply to sensors.

well ... sorta.  Moore's law applies where it applies to something that it can properly be applied to, which in the case of sensors, is the pixel count.  it would mean that the maximum possible pixel count on a given sized sensor will double every two years.  whether or not camera companies choose to actually put that many pixels in a sensor is a different issue.

light sensitivity, however, has to do with the absolute properties of the materials actually being used to collect light in a sensor.  it's not something where pure quantity wins the day.  some of this has to do with the electronics of it, in terms of finding ways to manage the noise baseline through more efficient data channels and better cooling, but probably a lot more of it is materials science.  and, having worked in materials science, I can guarantee we don't double the efficiency of materials every two years.  if we did, we'd all be traveling around the country on a single gallon of gas, and perfectly insulating our houses with a sheet of paper.

[spaceheat]

It might be a stretch but perhaps the new sensor on the D800 is a 3 layer sensor like the Sigma foveon? That keep the file sizes the same as 12MP file sizes.

I like that Idea!

I have been waiting for Canon to switch to this approach before I upgrade any of my camera bodies. I would like to see a 3 X 8.2mp, 3x12.7mp, and a 3x16.7mp... which basically would be foveon style versions of the 1D2n, 5Dc, and 1Ds2 sensors. These sensors should allow for the per pixel sharpness of these models, which IMO looks better than the newer models, and should give great color and DR.

You should be able to enlarge those images to hearts content.

[victorengel]

I'm already on record as predicting a jump in megapixels by Canon.

http://forums.dpreview.com/forums/read.asp?forum=1032&message=36434409

I think the chart needs to be adjusted by 6 months for the earthquake/tsunami. That still leaves a chart pointing to something over 36 MP, in my opinion. I think 40 MP would be great. Then a 2:1 (linear) sraw format would be 10 MP, which is much better than what we have now.

If 1080P video is to be easily spread across the sensor, it would make sense for there to be a 4:1 ratio, kind of like there is a 3:1 ratio with the 5D II. That would result in a 3:2 sensor size of 39 MP. With 2:1 pixel mapping, you could fit 4K video onto a 44 MP sensor. In any case, I think the next full frame Canon sensor will be somewhere in the 39-45 MP range. Maybe there will be another model with a smaller pixel count.

[Fleetie]

I want the 5D3 or this new "other" FF to be super-good at high-ISO, and I'd be delighted to sacrifice all video functionality in the "lower" model to facilitate that, price-wise. 24MPix would be fine for me.

[moreorless]

I honestly doubt that Canon will come back with a 5D Mark III. I kinda agree with what has been given in terms of speculation and that Canon will come back with the new-entry full frame camera that will sit below a Mark III.

When the Mark III comes out Canon is aiming for both video and photography and at the moment if the rumors hold up Canon is already aiming at the video people for November 3rd. So it would only make sense that they release a new-entry camera for the photographers and then save the big guns heading into next year with the Mark III.

The 5D mk3 could of course be the new entry level FF model if we see one with the infamous 3D sitting at the $3000-4000 price point, use the established name to add legitiamncey to the lower end model since it would still probabley outspect the mk2.

Personally I feel it could be the entry level model(either one having it and the other not or one outspecing the other) that gives one brand the real advanatge over the other unless one of them comes up with a massive leap in ISO or DR.  Just upping megapixels on high end models is afterall pretty predictable and I'd be supprized if Canon werent expecting it way before the rumours.

The smart move would IMHO be anticipating that many users don't need to move beyond 20-25 MP and that dropping 5D mk2 prices(plus cheap 5D mk1's) have created a new lower end FF market which $4000 bodies won't tap into.

[theuserjohnny]

I honestly doubt that Canon will come back with a 5D Mark III. I kinda agree with what has been given in terms of speculation and that Canon will come back with the new-entry full frame camera that will sit below a Mark III.

When the Mark III comes out Canon is aiming for both video and photography and at the moment if the rumors hold up Canon is already aiming at the video people for November 3rd. So it would only make sense that they release a new-entry camera for the photographers and then save the big guns heading into next year with the Mark III.

The 5D mk3 could of course be the new entry level FF model if we see one with the infamous 3D sitting at the $3000-4000 price point, use the established name to add legitiamncey to the lower end model since it would still probabley outspect the mk2.

Personally I feel it could be the entry level model(either one having it and the other not or one outspecing the other) that gives one brand the real advanatge over the other unless one of them comes up with a massive leap in ISO or DR.  Just upping megapixels on high end models is afterall pretty predictable and I'd be supprized if Canon werent expecting it way before the rumours.

The smart move would IMHO be anticipating that many users don't need to move beyond 20-25 MP and that dropping 5D mk2 prices(plus cheap 5D mk1's) have created a new lower end FF market which $4000 bodies won't tap into.

I get what your saying but I highly doubt it. Canon knows the importance that the 5D Mark III will have upon most the world so I think that they'll want to announce it on a big stage and not announce it just because Nikon made an announcement on their end. I think that they'll announce this new full frame that's similar to the 6D (I think?) in which it'll have a lower megapixle count yet have improved iso (as they called it the Nikon killer) and then maybe drop the price on the 5D2 and 5D1 (sort of what you were saying) and that should be enough to at least cut into Nikon's announcement and give them enough time heading into next year and focusing on a 5D2/7D replacement.

[gene_can_sing]

I think the yet to be announce 6D, aka low mega-pixel full frame will be the video oriented DSLR, and they will give the 5D3 back to the stills people. This only makes sense because video is much better with lower megapixels = less line skipping.

I'm hoping for that the yet to be announced 6D or whatever it's called is just 12 megapixels (ideal for video) with high performing ISO.

I think this would actually make Canon seem like an innovator with an opposite spectrum type of camera, as opposed to just upping the pixel ante which nobody really seems to keen on anyways.

[nikkito]

those worried about the megapixels can always use S size

[Meh]

Nikon has to do something to stay ahead of the iPhone in the megapixel race...

Love it.  +1

[kubelik]

those worried about the megapixels can always use S size

bingo.  canon has actually built a function in to their equipment that specifically addresses a concern that apparently lots of people have.  why the heartburn over file sizes, folks?

[puqq]

I had a dream of Canon stopping the useless megapixel race years ago (12-14mpix for APS-C, 20-25 for FF). They have not done it so far, it is quite unlikely they will now.

There ' s nothing left, but to go to the Internet and complain  

[macfly]

why the heartburn over file sizes, folks?

I gotta agree with this, all you people who want a slower car go buy a slower car, but stop telling the manufacturer not to make fast cars, because some of us have races to win.

Seriously, on my current EOS you can do RAW or RAW S if you want a little files, and a bunch of different JPGS to go smaller still, so what's the problem?

As I said if you don't want a fast car, go buy a slow one - but don't make me party to your mediocrity because I actually want 42MP in FF, and will take 60 happily if it's offered, just give me anything serious to save me from the hideous Hasselblad system I hate so much, but am forced to work with.

[Gcon]

Based on Moore's Law, Canon should be able to get four times as many pixels in their sensor, now, as they could have, three years ago. Of course, it's not always about more pixels, as has been pointed out. There are trade-offs, such as reduced heat, power, noise, etc. Still, I would be surprised if Canon couldn't make a FF sensor that is one or two stops better and still increase the pixel count.

The most misquoted law around

Moore's law is that the quantity of transistors in silicon will double for a given price point every 18-24 months.

There are some similarities with digital camera pixels over recent years but it's definitely not Moore's law.

[thien135]

Well nikon usually price their cameras a bit higher than canon. So ~300,000 yen for D800 is like $3900-4000. Then, 5D3 would be around 3500-3800?? Oh well, I ordered new 5D2 from Henrys(Canada) for $1970( including shipping to US). It should suit me well till 5D3 price drops.

[J. McCabe]

those worried about the megapixels can always use S size

DxO will not process S (or M) raw files. I've asked for those formats to be supported, and was told it's on low on their priorities list.