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Author Topic: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.  (Read 26765 times)

sanj

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TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« on: November 25, 2013, 10:18:33 AM »
It is a bit quiet here and until the 7d2 or the high mp camera here is something for us.
I think it may be fun to predict what camera technology will be like in December of 2023.
Here are my few predictions:
1. DSLR's will be used only by top end sports/wild life shooters.
2. Mirror less would have evolved and be thriving.
3. Point and shoot would be dead.
4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.
5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.
6. Canon and Nikon would share equal percentage of the market.
7. Canon will have 65 mp full frame camera.
8. The fast version Canon camera will shoot 18 fps.
9. DR will be around 16 stops.
10. 1d form factor will stay.

We all need to put our thoughts down by early next year and then look at this ten years from now and tickle ourselves.

Sanjay

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TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« on: November 25, 2013, 10:18:33 AM »

docsmith

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2013, 10:43:02 AM »
Fun thread.

Agree pretty much except for two:
1.  There will always be a point and shoot market.  The 2/3rd sensor P&S may be dead, but P&S with larger sensors will exist.  They are simply mirrorless cameras without interchangeable lenses.
2.  Nikon will be dead, severely diminished, or acquired by someone like Sony but not on par with Canon.  Recent news of them downgrading their forecast is a harbinger.  They are groping around for a product that will continuously sell.  Much more so than Canon.  Sigma's lenses will hurt Nikon more than Canon. 

New thoughts:
1.  3D video cameras bread new life into the camcorder market and sufficiently differentiate video from still photography that dSLRs exist that are primarily devoted to still photography
2.  Someone such as fugi/Olympus/etc will rise to take Nikon's place as the #2 brand (in terms of sales) compared to Canon
3.  Sony will have left the market in search of greener pastures.
4.  "Lytro" cameras and sensors will be available but more of a niche.
5.  Sensor tech--Bayer filters/CMOS sensors will be out.  ISO performance will have necessitated all light hitting the sensor.  Not sure what will have replaced it.


Zv

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2013, 10:45:35 AM »
I think there will be a really big advancement in image stabilization, allowing photographers to take pictures at incredibly long shutter speeds. Goodbye tripod for most people.

I think for action and sports shooters there will be a way to capture not only a burst but a video of a few seconds from which the camera will automatically select the sharpest images and process them and "deliver" 10 or 12 good shots. No more "machine gun mode". It'll be silent and lightning fast.

Voice activated remote shooting. Like Siri on steroids. Tell it to change modes, settings etc. goodbye IR remote. I also think a voice activated app via smartphone would be good.

Intelligent dof mode. It detects the depth of the object and offers a suitable aperture as well as critical focus assistance. Like A-dep but actually works! Option to overide it for creative effect.

Point and shoot replaced by cellphones (which is already happening).

And speedlites with variable color temp built in!!  ;D
« Last Edit: November 25, 2013, 10:47:48 AM by Zv »
Move along nothing to see here!

AmbientLight

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2013, 10:52:33 AM »
Now that's a good idea.

Here's Sanj's list adapted to what I would expect:
1. DSLRs will continue to be used by professionals and amateurs alike.
2. Mirrorless will follow point and shoot cameras into the abyss of consumer cameras being replaced by camera phones.
3. Point and shoot would be dead.
4. Canon cameras will have 2 stops better ISO.
5. There will be lenses with 6 stop IS.
6. Nikon will continue to suffer economically until they are reduced to be merely a niche vendor catering to a select clientele of retro-camera fans (Nikon Df for anyone?).
7. Sony will replace Nikon as the DSLR vendor competing with Canon.
8. Canon will likely deliver something in the range of 80-120 MP sensors, making medium format obsolete for commercial purposes.
9. DR will be around 16 stops.
10. 1D form factor will stay.

What makes me nervous is the notion of voice controls for cameras. Makes me think of a bunch of sports photographers having to make silly "click", "click" noises to shoot their cameras. :o
« Last Edit: November 25, 2013, 10:58:14 AM by AmbientLight »

Dylan777

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2013, 10:54:42 AM »
Tiny FF mirrorless:
1. Better tracking than current 1D X + 12fps
2. Tiny lenses
3. Clean image at 12,000ISO
4. Make hot coffee


Eldar

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2013, 11:36:12 AM »
It is known to be difficult to predict, especially about the future. But it´s fun never the less.

1: Frame rates will not be an issue, because still images will be a high resolution mode in a video camera.

2: Unless technology development speed suddenly took a dive, resolution, buffer size and memory card speed will not be a limiting factor. We are already at the limit of what a human eye can detect, considering resolution, so I don´t believe there will be much drive for that beyond 100MP. But I´m sure we will be there in 10 years time.

3: I think the most important development will be in form factor and both visual and mechanical man machine interfaces.

4: Cameras will be mirrorless. EVF will have resolution, color, contrast etc. beyond what we need and they can also compensate for low light situations, to ease framing and subject tracking. (But cameras will not look like a Sony A7).

5: Full sensor area AF, selectable in any way we want, will be there. And it will be very fast.

6: High ISO performance will improve significantly, making flashes a tool for the very few (I have hardly fired mine).

7: IS will improve further. But I doubt we will see anything beyond 6 stop, because I don´t believe there is sufficient practical need for it.

8: Lenses are more defined by physical barriers, so there are some limitations there to struggle with. But my guess is that Canon will crack the DO code and produce very compact, light and high performance whites and some zooms. For shorter focal lengths I believe we will see improved performance, but not dramatic changes in physical appearance.

9: We will have a universal standard for lens mounts. This is one of the few areas where we still see primarily proprietary solutions. It would be very strange if that continued for another 10 years.

10: We will see changes in the industry. Currently I think type Ricoh, Olympus, Pentax and to some extent Nikon are the most likely strugglers. Medium format will have a very tough time, so Hasselblad, Phase One etc. will struggle. Canon´s fate lies in their own hands, and I believe they will remain a top provider, with Sigma and Sony battling for second and third.

Next in line please ...
« Last Edit: November 25, 2013, 11:46:46 AM by Eldar »
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danski0224

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2013, 11:44:22 AM »
Hard to say what the future will bring.

However, what I have now can do more than what I imagined 10 years ago.

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2013, 11:44:22 AM »

Pi

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2013, 11:57:50 AM »
4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.

We would first need a new Einstein to shake the foundation of physics as we know it for that (even if the Bayer sensor gets replaced by something else). Then we would need new engineers to design sensors based on the new theory. That will earn them more than one Nobel prize, I believe.

sanj

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2013, 12:18:41 PM »
4. Canon cameras will have 4 stops better ISO.

We would first need a new Einstein to shake the foundation of physics as we know it for that (even if the Bayer sensor gets replaced by something else). Then we would need new engineers to design sensors based on the new theory. That will earn them more than one Nobel prize, I believe.

Pls elaborate.

Mt Spokane Photography

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2013, 01:02:59 PM »
Looking back 15 years to when DSLR's were a new evolving technology, there has really not been any earthshaking developments.  Now that's the technology is mature and sensors are near their theoretical limit for efficiency, its hard for me to imagine that the next 10 years will bring anything but incremental changes.

Its possible that mirrorless cameras will be practical, FF point and shoot bodies are on the drawing boards, if you can believe the rumors, that sort of thing will happen, and I certainly hope they can add 4 stops to raw sensor ISO.

All those predictions can be done by clever tricks using multiple exposures, but that can be done now.  Native sensor improvements beyond the theoretical sensor capability are a bit of a stretch though.

emag

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2013, 01:36:12 PM »
1.  Most stills photographers will be grabbing 16k individual frames from video, but there will still be a place for stills from DSLRs.

2.  Nikon will still be around.

3.  We'll still be waiting for the 7DII and 100-400 replacement.

4.  Small, high quality cameras will be attached to animals.  Cats will take awesome photos of humans in odd sleeping positions.

5.  You will be able to take stills, video, make phone calls and determine your location all with one device.  Oops - already there.

6.  Ken Rockwell will still be making a living doing what he does.  Many current pro photographers will not.

7.  His reviews will still be out to lunch.

8.  People will still bash Canon for DR.

9.  The 300/2.8L IS and 70-200/2.8L IS (both MkIII, pending MkIV) will still be awesome.

10.  Adobe CC will be a trifle more than $10/month......

sanj

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2013, 01:36:39 PM »
sensors are near their theoretical limit for efficiency,

Would love to educate myself on this. Pls can you guide me where I can read up on this statement. Thx.

Mitch.Conner

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2013, 02:01:56 PM »
Your phone will be capable of better low light photography than current high end DSLRs.

There will be a pre-cog unit for copyright infringement.

Canon, Nikon, and Sony will merge into DynCorp.

At 11:52 AM, somebody's camera will become self-aware.

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #12 on: November 25, 2013, 02:01:56 PM »

Mt Spokane Photography

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2013, 02:22:06 PM »
sensors are near their theoretical limit for efficiency,

Would love to educate myself on this. Pls can you guide me where I can read up on this statement. Thx.

There have been a number of articles posted on the subject.  ideally, a photosite that could read out the charge of one photon would be perfect, if it weren't for several other limits that also apply.

ISO is basically limited by sensor noise, and there is noise even in light itself.

Here is one article, its a bit involved, because its not a simple subject.

http://www.northlight-images.co.uk/article_pages/guest/physical_limits_long.html

Here is a fairly technical paper about sensor noise, which is the limiting factor in high ISO low light photography.

As I said, there are technologies that sidestep the limits by combining multiple images and averaging out noise, but they do not increase the basic sensor limits.

http://electronicimaging.spiedigitallibrary.org/article.aspx?articleid=1199156

dppaskewitz

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2013, 02:52:15 PM »
4.  Small, high quality cameras will be attached to animals.  Cats will take awesome photos of humans in odd sleeping positions.


Thank you.  Just what I needed this morning.   :P
5D4; 6D (for now); M5; M3 (for now); several lenses (Ls, non-Ls and Ms).  Enthusiast.

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Re: TEN YEARS FROM NOW.
« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2013, 02:52:15 PM »