Price predictions - with current lineup and possible changes

[Jarveye]

Right now i am - like many - having a damn hard time knowing what to buy, as i NEED to upgrade.

My reason is: i had 40d which was ok (although i was keen to go full frame, and also taken an intrest in ametuer filmmaking) but then i dropped and broke my 40d, leaving me with my old 350D which i just dont think cuts it atall!

Money is an issue, but im working on that, although its worth bearing in mind, ulike some i cant just buy the best camera unless i am willing to wait a little longer in order to pull together the cash, which means putting up with a lesser camera for longer, and kicking myself every time i take a photo of something amazing and feel the finished photograph could have been better (i do alot of low light photography)

right now my options are pretty much:
60d - best UK price i can see is approx £700 (around $1090)
7d - best Uk price approx £900 (around $1400)
5dmkII - best price approx £1400 (around $2180)

i think everyone knows what the pro's and cons are for all these, like most i want good ISO performance, not overly fussed about rediculous MP count, im also not totally fussed about FPS being maxed, nor too many focus points as i am usually stuck on the centre only anyway, the swivel screen i like, but i really am keen to go full frame...

im having doubts any new bodys are going to be released anytime soon to add to my list of possibles before i go crazy and smash up my 350d, but perhaps you think different?

Do you think i am wrong and a new camera is on its way?
if they dont, how do you predict the prices will change on these bodys in the near future?

[neuroanatomist]

(i do alot of low light photography)

i want good ISO performance, not overly fussed about rediculous MP count, im also not totally fussed about FPS being maxed, nor too many focus points as i am usually stuck on the centre only anyway, the swivel screen i like, but i really am keen to go full frame...

Sounds like the 5DII is the camera you're looking for...

[Jarveye]

yeah i suppose if the 5d mkII was a little cheaper it would be a no brainer.

part of me is tempted to spend half that on a 60d however -  this would tide me over till perhaps a 5d mkIII appears, this way i can at that point either:

a) buy a 5d mkII for, i would imagine cheaper, and have this for my main camera full frame and the 60d for its own benifits
b) buy a 5d mk III with hopefully everything rolled into one and sell the 60d towards a shiny new lens or something

[Jarveye]

oh and, i suppose the other thing i was keen to find out if anyone can help me:

a) is there a trend for how a camera like the 60d (based on other XXD models) changes in price over a period of time? is there a point after announcement when its better to wait till for the best value?

b) in the same way, is it likely (and by how much) that the 5d mkII will take a vast drop in price if a mkIII is released? again is there previous examples by which to go by?

knowing this would help me decide what to do also

[ronderick]

Just curious... how's your investment on lenses?

If your collection is already APS-C-heavy (assuming you bought EF-S lenses for your 350/40D), you might want to consider how switching to FF would make some of ur lenses obsolete.

[papa-razzi]

If you are not doing video, I would get an XSi and keep saving your money for the camera you really want.  I have and XSi and it takes great pictures.  A fine camera.  It is at the low end of the price curve since I expect it to be phased out soon.  It is half the 60D price.

Save your money for the 5D III that should come out some time next year. It sounds like you would be totally happy with that one.

[Peerke]

If you are not doing video, I would get an XSi and keep saving your money for the camera you really want.  I have and XSi and it takes great pictures.  A fine camera.  It is at the low end of the price curve since I expect it to be phased out soon.  It is half the 60D price.

Save your money for the 5D III that should come out some time next year. It sounds like you would be totally happy with that one.

Exactly what I was thinking. You might even get lucky if Canon brings out a lower MP FF made for low light shooters like me and you and him and .... (Oh I hope for that camera)  .

[MintMark]

oh and, i suppose the other thing i was keen to find out if anyone can help me:

a) is there a trend for how a camera like the 60d (based on other XXD models) changes in price over a period of time? is there a point after announcement when its better to wait till for the best value?

b) in the same way, is it likely (and by how much) that the 5d mkII will take a vast drop in price if a mkIII is released? again is there previous examples by which to go by?

knowing this would help me decide what to do also

Have a look on camera price buster. They show price graphs over the last two years so you can see what the trends are. I concluded that new bodies drop 20% in the first two months (roughly, sometimes more or less, sometimes faster).

    Mark

[justingreen19]

£1,500 in the UK for a 5DmkII?
Who is selling it for that price??

[bdeheer]

On dpreview they have a picture http://a.img-dpreview.com/articles/photokina2010/Canon/DSC00744.jpg? of a guy holding the new 400mm 2.8L in his hand. Yes, in his hand. I've used the old 400mm 2.8L and that's a "gripped firmly in both hands" or "on tri-/monopod" lens.
I actually find it hilarious

[Stuart]

60d - best UK price i can see is approx £700 (around $1090)
7d - best Uk price approx £900 (around $1400)
5dmkII - best price approx £1400 (around $2180)

Wow where do you get such good (including VAT?) deals.

Don't buy what you don't want, a 350 to 550 is a value upgrade untill the 5dmk3 arrives. But also a second hand 500D has video to tide you over till you know if film is your thing, or to know if a 5dmk3 will arrive as an SLR and not a video based product instead :-/
Stu,

[Jarveye]

Hi thanks for all your comments,

firstly, isnt the Xsi just a newer model of the 350d? im thinking even if it is just to see me through till the next 5d replacement comes, this might not be the camera for me...

lenses i have:
24-7mm f2.8 sigma g- eneral use lens
70-120mm f2.8 sigma - for low light concerts etc
70-300mm f4-5.6 usm canon - for general telephoto needs
i also have the 18-55mm which came with the 350d for when i need a little wider angle without full frame

the 2 better lenses there are sigma i know, but i find the quality satisfactory for my needs, atleast for now.

regarding the prices i quoted, those are hong kong import prices off a well known auction site

[kubelik]

jarveye's lens setup looks like its ready to go full frame (I'm assuming you meant to say you have the 24-70 and 70-200) and he'll get a lot more enjoyment out of 24mm on a FF than he does currently off an APS-C.

in terms of price drops ... from what I've seen in the past, I think it's something along these lines:

60D: price may drop by $100 or $200 US from its listed price about halfway
7D: price may drop another $100 once the 7DII is released in a year's time ... but doubtful it can go much lower than that; it's just too good of a camera to retail at $1300 US
5D Mark II: price may drop another $100 or $200 once the 5D Mark III is released, or may not decrease in price at all

the high-value cameras (7D and 5D Mark II) are likely to hold their prices fairly steady even after the introduction of a new camera.  they have enough worth even once "replaced" that it's not like people will be holding fire sales of 5D IIs.  if the 5D Mark III comes in at $3K or above, there'll be lots of people who were waiting on it and then suddenly decide to go hunting for a 5D Mark II, and that will keep its price fairly steady.

you can get the 60D but if you're earnest about going Full Frame, don't delude yourself into the cycle of buying a "temporary replacement" that will eat up a significant amount of funds and prevent you from upgrading yet again.  people always say they're going to save up, get halfway there, and then go and spend it on something in the interim which sets them right back to where they started.

the 5D Mark II is really a great camera and it's going to stay great even once the 5D Mark III is released.  so just suck it up and jump for it -- if you find that you don't like the 5D Mark II once you buy it, it'll be pretty easy to sell off for no loss and go and buy whatever APS-C cam you want

[neuroanatomist]

people always say they're going to save up, get halfway there, and then go and spend it on something in the interim which sets them right back to where they started.

Darn - so that's how I ended up with a 70-200mm f/2.8L IS II while on my way to the 500mm f/4L IS.  *smacks head*

[kubelik]

Darn - so that's how I ended up with a 70-200mm f/2.8L IS II while on my way to the 500mm f/4L IS.  *smacks head*

it's how I ended up with the horrendous Sigma 150-500 OS instead of the Canon 300 f/4 L IS... we all do it.  lucky I didn't make that mistake with buying the 7D, and just went straight to the 5DII.  nothing wrong with the 7D, it just wasn't what I wanted and would have set me back $1800 from where I should have been going